Healing the PlanetConserving the world’s tropical forests<br />   William F. Laurance<br />Centre for Tropical Environment...
Habitat loss<br />Climate change<br />Hunting<br />Roads<br />Fires<br />Exotic pathogens<br />
Is the sky falling?<br />
Wright & Muller-Landau (2006): The Future of Tropical Forest Species<br />Seriously challenge idea of large-scale species ...
Public forum<br />Debating the Tropical Extinction Crisis<br />National Museum of Natural History Washington, D.C. <br />1...
Trust me<br />
Epicenters of biodiversity<br />
Recycling rainfall<br />
Stabilizing streams & rivers<br />
Protecting soils<br />
Storing carbon<br />
Massive carbon emissions<br />
What is happening to the rainforests?<br />
Burgeoning Industrialization & Globalization<br />Globalization and industrial drivers of deforestation have grown sharply...
Brazilian Amazonia<br />i<br />1980<br />Per-capita deforestation rate has accelerated sharply<br />Massive expansion of i...
7,500 km of new highways in Brazilian Amazon<br />Triad of highways from Amazon to Pacific Ocean<br />52,000 km of new log...
Deforestation<br />Pandora’s Box Effect<br />   Fires<br />Adeney et al. (2009) PLoS One<br />
Illegal Gold Mining<br />
The future of the Amazon?<br />Modeling studies suggest dramatic increases in forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation ...
   Moderately degraded
   Lightly degraded
   Pristine</li></ul>Laurance et al. (2001) Science<br />
Gabon<br />3) China’s Role in Illegal Logging   <br />Laurance (2006) Tropinet<br />	Laurance (2007) Newsletter of the Chi...
4) Explosive Growth of Biofuels<br />Oil palm<br />Soy<br />Laurance (2007) Science<br />Scharlemann & Laurance (2008) Sci...
Projected increase in tropical land devoted to biofuel crops by 2030<br />Pan-tropical increase could exceed 300 million h...
‘Corn connection’ to Amazon deforestation<br />$11 billion/year for corn-ethanol subsidies<br />Laurance (2007) Science<br...
5) Population Growth<br />For many developing nations, growth is slowingonlyrelative to the breakneck pace in recent decad...
Population and Biodiversity Hotspots<br />Surviving habitat just 2.3% of global land area<br />50% of vascular plant speci...
6) Emerging Pathogens<br />Rinderpest<br />Ebola<br />Avian malaria<br />White-nose disease<br />
Chytrid fungus & amphibians<br />Laurance et al. (1996, 1997) Conservation Biology<br />Chytrid spore<br />
7) Climatic & Atmospheric Changes<br />Cyclone Larry strikes north Queensland, March 2006 <br />
Rising CO2 levels<br /><ul><li>1990s: emissions grew at 0.9% per year
2000-2008 emissions grew at 3.5% per year </li></li></ul><li>Rising Temperatures<br />Global temperature anomalies (1850-2...
How Will Global Warming Affect Tropical Climates? <br />
Temperature Anomalies (oC) for 2070-2099<br />Hotter conditions<br />  Low GHG Scenario           High GHG Scenario<br />	...
Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day) for 2070-2099<br />Low GHG Scenario   	High GHG Scenario<br />Precipitation<br /> 	Predic...
Warming & high-elevation biota<br />Many elevational specialists in tropics<br />High endemism<br />Western Ghats, India<b...
Upland endemics in tropical Australia<br />
Future scenario<br />Bioclimatic models of future warming<br />	Even modest warming (1o C) and drying (10%) could dramatic...
Projected habitat declines for the Golden Bowerbird, an upland endemic<br />S. E. Williams & D. W. Hilbert (2006), in Emer...
IPCC prediction range<br />Projected vertebrate extinctions  in tropical Australia<br />Sharp acceleration above 2o C  <b...
Move over, polar bear?<br />Laurance (2009) New Scientist<br />Laurance (2009) Natural History<br />Laurance (2009) The Ec...
8) Environmental Synergisms<br />
Forest fragmentation & fire<br />
Laurance & Williamson (2001) Conserv. Biology<br />Cochrane & Laurance (2002) J. Tropical Ecology<br />Laurance (2003) Tre...
Aftermath of recurring surface fires<br />
Logging & hunting<br />Laurance et al. (2006, 2008) Conservation Biology<br />Laurance (2010) Africa Geographic Magazine<b...
Fragmentation & climate change<br />Rondônia, Brazil<br />Central Panama<br />
Synergisms are Killers<br />Laurance & Useche (2009) Conservation Biology<br />
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Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance

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Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance

  1. 1. Healing the PlanetConserving the world’s tropical forests<br /> William F. Laurance<br />Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) & School of Marine & Tropical Biology<br /> James Cook University Cairns, Australia<br />
  2. 2. Habitat loss<br />Climate change<br />Hunting<br />Roads<br />Fires<br />Exotic pathogens<br />
  3. 3. Is the sky falling?<br />
  4. 4. Wright & Muller-Landau (2006): The Future of Tropical Forest Species<br />Seriously challenge idea of large-scale species extinctions in the coming century<br />Difficult to ignore:<br />Prominent scientists<br />Initially presented as Wright’s ATBC presidential address<br />Key conclusions were widely distributed in a press release <br />
  5. 5. Public forum<br />Debating the Tropical Extinction Crisis<br />National Museum of Natural History Washington, D.C. <br />13 February 2009<br />
  6. 6. Trust me<br />
  7. 7.
  8. 8. Epicenters of biodiversity<br />
  9. 9. Recycling rainfall<br />
  10. 10. Stabilizing streams & rivers<br />
  11. 11. Protecting soils<br />
  12. 12. Storing carbon<br />
  13. 13. Massive carbon emissions<br />
  14. 14. What is happening to the rainforests?<br />
  15. 15. Burgeoning Industrialization & Globalization<br />Globalization and industrial drivers of deforestation have grown sharply in past 1-2 decades <br />Global industrial activity expected to expand 3-5 fold by 2050 <br />Butler & Laurance (2008) Trends in Ecology & Evolution<br />Laurance (2009) ITTO Tropical Forest Update<br />
  16. 16. Brazilian Amazonia<br />i<br />1980<br />Per-capita deforestation rate has accelerated sharply<br />Massive expansion of industrial-scale cattle ranching, soy farms, and logging<br />1991<br /> Old-growth forest (%)<br />1980<br />1991<br />2000<br />2000<br /> Population density (no. km-1) <br />
  17. 17. 7,500 km of new highways in Brazilian Amazon<br />Triad of highways from Amazon to Pacific Ocean<br />52,000 km of new logging roads in Congo Basin<br />New roads opening up last intact forests in Sumatra<br />Panama-Colombia Highway could decimate Darién wilderness<br />2) Massive Road & Highway Expansion<br />Laurance et al. (2009) Trends in Ecology & Evolution<br />Laurance (2009) New Scientist<br />
  18. 18. Deforestation<br />Pandora’s Box Effect<br /> Fires<br />Adeney et al. (2009) PLoS One<br />
  19. 19. Illegal Gold Mining<br />
  20. 20. The future of the Amazon?<br />Modeling studies suggest dramatic increases in forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation over next 20 years<br /><ul><li>Deforested or heavily degraded
  21. 21. Moderately degraded
  22. 22. Lightly degraded
  23. 23. Pristine</li></ul>Laurance et al. (2001) Science<br />
  24. 24. Gabon<br />3) China’s Role in Illegal Logging <br />Laurance (2006) Tropinet<br /> Laurance (2007) Newsletter of the Chinese Academy of Sciences<br /> Laurance (2008) Science<br />Myanmar-China border<br />
  25. 25. 4) Explosive Growth of Biofuels<br />Oil palm<br />Soy<br />Laurance (2007) Science<br />Scharlemann & Laurance (2008) Science<br />Sugarcane<br />
  26. 26. Projected increase in tropical land devoted to biofuel crops by 2030<br />Pan-tropical increase could exceed 300 million hectares<br />Rights & Resources Institute (2008)<br />
  27. 27. ‘Corn connection’ to Amazon deforestation<br />$11 billion/year for corn-ethanol subsidies<br />Laurance (2007) Science<br />Laurance (2008) New Scientist<br />Corn production rises 25%, soy falls 19% <br />
  28. 28. 5) Population Growth<br />For many developing nations, growth is slowingonlyrelative to the breakneck pace in recent decades—and in some cases is still rising dramatically<br />Source: Columbia University & Population Action International<br />
  29. 29. Population and Biodiversity Hotspots<br />Surviving habitat just 2.3% of global land area<br />50% of vascular plant species<br />42% of terrestrial vertebrate species<br />Myers et al. (2000) Nature<br />
  30. 30. 6) Emerging Pathogens<br />Rinderpest<br />Ebola<br />Avian malaria<br />White-nose disease<br />
  31. 31. Chytrid fungus & amphibians<br />Laurance et al. (1996, 1997) Conservation Biology<br />Chytrid spore<br />
  32. 32. 7) Climatic & Atmospheric Changes<br />Cyclone Larry strikes north Queensland, March 2006 <br />
  33. 33. Rising CO2 levels<br /><ul><li>1990s: emissions grew at 0.9% per year
  34. 34. 2000-2008 emissions grew at 3.5% per year </li></li></ul><li>Rising Temperatures<br />Global temperature anomalies (1850-2007)<br />
  35. 35. How Will Global Warming Affect Tropical Climates? <br />
  36. 36. Temperature Anomalies (oC) for 2070-2099<br />Hotter conditions<br /> Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario<br /> All models predict rising temperatures, but vary in magnitude<br />
  37. 37. Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day) for 2070-2099<br />Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario<br />Precipitation<br /> Predictions vary hugely, especially at finer scales<br />
  38. 38. Warming & high-elevation biota<br />Many elevational specialists in tropics<br />High endemism<br />Western Ghats, India<br />Central Panama<br />
  39. 39. Upland endemics in tropical Australia<br />
  40. 40. Future scenario<br />Bioclimatic models of future warming<br /> Even modest warming (1o C) and drying (10%) could dramatically reduce & fragment cool upland forests<br />D. W. Hilbert et al. (2001) Austral Ecology <br />Present day<br />
  41. 41. Projected habitat declines for the Golden Bowerbird, an upland endemic<br />S. E. Williams & D. W. Hilbert (2006), in Emerging Threats to Tropical Forests, Univ. of Chicago Press.<br />
  42. 42. IPCC prediction range<br />Projected vertebrate extinctions in tropical Australia<br />Sharp acceleration above 2o C <br />S. E. Williams et al. (2003) Proceedings of the Royal Society B<br />
  43. 43. Move over, polar bear?<br />Laurance (2009) New Scientist<br />Laurance (2009) Natural History<br />Laurance (2009) The Ecologist<br />Laurance (2010) Environment Magazine<br />
  44. 44. 8) Environmental Synergisms<br />
  45. 45. Forest fragmentation & fire<br />
  46. 46. Laurance & Williamson (2001) Conserv. Biology<br />Cochrane & Laurance (2002) J. Tropical Ecology<br />Laurance (2003) Trends in Ecology & Evolution<br />Laurance (2004) Phil. Trans. Royal Society B<br />Cochrane & Laurance (2009) Ambio<br />
  47. 47. Aftermath of recurring surface fires<br />
  48. 48. Logging & hunting<br />Laurance et al. (2006, 2008) Conservation Biology<br />Laurance (2010) Africa Geographic Magazine<br />
  49. 49. Fragmentation & climate change<br />Rondônia, Brazil<br />Central Panama<br />
  50. 50. Synergisms are Killers<br />Laurance & Useche (2009) Conservation Biology<br />
  51. 51. Is it all bad news?<br />
  52. 52. Positive trends<br />The number and total area of reserves has risen, especially if one includes indigenous and semi-protected lands<br />Public attitudes are changing in tropical countries<br />Carbon-trading could help significantly<br />
  53. 53. Thank You<br />

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