IAOS-OECD 2018 conference, 19-21 September 2018, Paris. More information at: http://www.oecd.org/iaos2018/

1. Measurement and policy
implications of changes in the
labour market
Selma MAHFOUZ
16th IAOS Conference
21 September 2018
1

2. Outline
« The changing world of work »:
Are we missing something?
The usual suspects
 New forms of employment
 Changes in occupations
Going further?
Implications for Statistics
Policy implications
2

3. 3

4. 4

5. Outline
« The changing world of work »:
Are we missing something?
The usual suspects
 New forms of employment
 Changes in occupations
Going further?
Implications for Statistics
Policy implications
5

6. Changes in the labour market
Major (well documented) trends over the last decades:
Ageing populations
Increase in women and seniors workers participation
Increase in average level of education
Deindustrialization
Increase in part-time and temporary jobs
Digitalization
Polarization (RBTC and globalization)
Increase in inequalities …
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7. Are we missing something?
New forms of employment
Contingent work
Alternative work arrangements
Non-standard workers
Platform workers
Gig economy…
Disappearing occupations
Frey and Osborne (2013) :
Jobs susceptible
to computerization
= 47% of US employment
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8. New forms of employment – definitions (1)
1- A broad definition of « Non standard workers »
= All workers that do not have an archetype full-time permanent
job with a single employer (« social protection point of view »)
Includes:
-Temporary jobs
-Part-time jobs
-Self-employed
But also on-call work or zero hours contracts
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9. New forms of employment – definitions (2)
2- A « narrow » definition of new forms of employment
(Eurofound, 2018)
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10. New forms of employment – definitions (3)
2- A narrow definition >> 9 broad new forms of employment
(Eurofound 2018)
-Strategic employment sharing
-Job sharing
-Interim management
-Casual Work
-ICT based mobile work (teleworking)
-Voucher based work
-Portfolio work
-Platform work
-Collaborative self-employment
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11. New forms of employment – Measures (1)
1- « Traditional » measures (NSO)
- Labour force surveys >> part-time and temporary contracts
(if not too short?)
Limits: self-employment and second jobs not well captured?
-Special modules / additional LFS questions
- US: Contingent Work Survey (June 2018)
- US : Rand CWS (Katz and Krueger 2017)
- EU-LFS: ad-hoc module in 2017 (11 questions on self-employment)
-Surveys on working conditions (eg EWCS)
- Questions on autonomy and work organization
-Other HH surveys: on use of time / on Households budgets…
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12. New forms of employment – Measures (2)
2- Other public data sources
- Administrative data
- Tax records (Abraham and al 2017)
- Business registries (Hathaway and al, 2016)
- Payroll data?
-Specific surveys on platform workers or crowd work
- Huws and al 2017 for 7 european countries
- BMAS / IZA 2018 in Gernmany
3- Private data sources
- Bank records (JP Morgan Chase and co Institute, 2018)
- Platform data (Uber, Hall and Krueger, 2015)
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13. Non standard forms of employment – Results (1)
Major trends (Eurofound 2017, OECD, 2017)
-Temporary employment: increase from late 1980 to mid-2000
then stabilization to 14% for the EU, 16% for the OECD
-Temporary agency work: around 2% (EU)
-Part-time work: increase to 20% of employment (EU)
- Increase in involuntary part-time
- Increase in very short weekly hours (less than 10 hours/week)
-Self employment: decline to 16% in OCDE, 15% in EU
-Own account workers (self-employed with no employees):
- 10% of employment
- Motives: positive (autonomy) and negative (lack of options, no choice)
-Prevalence of platform work: US : 0,5% in 2015 13

14. Non standard forms of employment – Results (2)
Results of the US Contingent Work Survey (CWS, 2017)
-Independent contractors: 6,9% in 2017 (= 2005)
-On-call workers: 1,7% in 2017 (= 2005)
-Temporary help agency workers: 0,9% in 2017 (= 2005)
-Workers provided by contract firms: 0,6% in 2017 (1,4% in 2005)
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15. Outline
« The changing world of work »:
Are we missing something?
The usual suspects
 New forms of employment
 Changes in occupations
Going further?
Implications for Statistics
Policy implications
15

16. Digitalization: destructive creation?
• Frey et Osborne (2013) :
In the US, 47 % of jobs at risk in 20 years?
16
Cf. Nicolas LE RU, « L'effet de l'automatisation sur l'emploi : ce qu'on sait et ce qu'on ignore », France
Stratégie, Note d'analyse n°49, juillet 2016

17. Some examples
Banking Hotels
Automobile Cardiologist 17

18. Things are more complicated
• OCDE (M.Arntz, T. Gregory et U. Zierahn, 2016) :
– 9 % of jobs are at high risk in the US, 10 % in the UK,
7 % in Japan
• Why?
Tasks versus occupations
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19. 19
Beyond occupations: skills
•Questions:
– How to identify slills required by employers
– How to certify and signal workers’ skills
– How to talk the same language? (ESCO, O*NET, skill
referentials)

20. 20
Skills: définitions
• Different words:
Abilities, skills, aptitudes, capabilities, etc..
• Different from the level of education or qualification
• Defined in relation to a production context:
– Skill = “Ability to apply knowledge and use know-how to complete
tasks and solve problems”
(Source: Cedefop; European Parliament and Council of the European Union, 2008)
– Which implies “applying knowledge, using tools, cognitive strategies
and routines, /…/ convictions, attitudes and values..”.
(Source : OCDE, L’évaluation des compétences des adultes, 2013)

21. 21
Skills: measures on the supply side
Measuring skills (supply of skills)
Indirect measure (proxy) Education level
Direct objective measure Standardized tests (PIAAC, PISA…)
Directe subjective
measure
- Auto-evaluation (Big Five…)
- Auto-evaluation of skills required by a job
- Evaluation by supervisors
Sources :
-Allen, J., and van der Velden, R. (2005). The role of self-assessment in measuring skills. REFLEX,
Working paper
-Eurostat

22. 22
Measuring skills (demand side)
Indirect measures
(proxy)
Occupation :
-Qualification level,
-Experts (Rome, O*NET, ESCO),
-Tensions on the labour market (vacancies, etc..)
Directe objective
measure
At the individual level :
-Tasks: working conditions surveys …
-Skills required in job offers
Directe subjective
measure
- Employer Surveys
- Evaluation of skills required by managers
- Auto-valuation of skills required by workers
(PIAAC)
Skills: measures on the demand side

23. In the US and in Australia, two surveys
Qualitative questions to employers
- The Occupational Requirements Survey in the US
- The Survey of Employers who have Recently Advertised
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New measures?

24. Outline
« The changing world of work »:
Are we missing something?
The usual suspects
 New forms of employment
 Changes in occupations
Going further?
Implications for Statistics
Policy implications
24

25. Going further?
Implications for Statistics (tentative)
Provide new « concepts »: new forms of employment, skills
Provide alternative measures of emerging phenomena
Dig into new sources of data
Go beyond the usual suspects and look for other sources of
heterogeneity in labour market outcomes
- Household level (eg Eurostat unemployment)
- New geography of jobs (Enrico Moretti)
- Changes in working conditions in « old » jobs
- Intergenerational reproduction of occupations ?
(% of sons doing the same job as their father)
- Firm level heterogeneity (Van Reenen super star firms)
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26. Going further?
Policy implications?
Non standard forms of work
>> Social protection model: Benefits and labour regulations
Changes in working conditions in standard work
>> Labour regulations: Working time? Place?...
Changes in skills
>> Education and training
Geographical heterogenity
>> Mobility and innovation policies?
Intergenerational reproduction
>> Education
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27. Measurement and policy
implications of changes in the
labour market
Selma MAHFOUZ
16th IAOS Conference
21 September 2018
27