A democratic, thriving country has in a short period of time spiralled out of control and is now a failed state. Regrettably, international pressure has resulted in naught. China is gleeful and the development plays into her larger ambitions for South East Asia.

1. Myanmar’s Road to
Becoming Next
Afghanistan, Syria orYemen
Dr SarmaVANGALA
Metastrategy, Inc.
Toronto, CANADA

2. CommonThemes inYemen,
Syria and Afghanistan
• Enduring costs of civil war, insurgency
• Intractable tribal/ethnic friction
• Impact of corruption
– Resentment
– Anger
– Loss of confidence in regime
• Youth bulge

3. Commonalities {cont’d}
• Urbanisation
• Social change
• Shift from agriculture to service to industry

4. ProxyWars: Syria
Warring parties Syria vs Rebels
Proxies Kurds {US support} vs Turkey and Russia
Syria’s story: Ruling party {Bashar Al-Assad} presents
conflict as military operation against rebel terror groups
Rebels’ story: People are behind us in seeking regime
change

5. ProxyWars:Yemen
Warring parties Bonafide government vs Rebels
Proxies Saudi and Israel vs Iran
Yemen’s story:This is an internal matter
Rebels’ story: Humanitarian crisis demands action.

6. ProxyWars: Afghanistan
Warring parties Government vs Taliban
Proxies US and Allies vs Iran andAl-Qaeda
Afghan’s story: This is an existential threat to theWest
Taliban’s story: Give us what we want and we’ll bring
normalcy back {Normalcy equates to Sharia}.

7. Myanmar
• Military coup d'état in February 2021 to counter landslide electoral victory
• Population enjoyed democracy and freedoms for over a decade;
• Festering {stateless} Rohingya and Karen problems pushing refugees into
Bangladesh andThailand;
• Likelihood of diminished power and economic clout of the armed forces
• Bangladesh,Thailand on high alert
• Very lucrative jade, sapphire trade mostly controlled by military
• World’s second largest source of opium

8. Myanmar
• 6 % to 8 % GDP growth {2018}
• Unemployment for 18 – 24 year olds is 2%
• GDP per capita 2019 is USD5 142 (est.) {India’s
is USD2 100}

9. Myanmar
• Documented cases of ethnic cleansing and
genocide

10. Honour and Dishonour
Honours on chest

11. Honour and Dishonour

12. Honour and Dishonour
Dishonour behind gun

13. Honour and Dishonour

14. Powerful Sponsors of Instability
• Russia
• Turkey
• Iran
• China

15. Influential friend

16. Rich Proxies
• Saudi Arabia, UAE

17. Pagan Empire
King Anawrahta
{Accession 1044}
Stability with peace

18. Toungoo Empire
King Bayinnaung Toungoo Empire:
1500 - 1750

19. Toungoo Empire
King Bayinnaung Toungoo Empire:
1500 - 1750
Empire included Assam and Manipur

20. World’s Longest-Running Civil
War

21. Recipe for Failure
• Internal conflicts
• 20 yrs of peace and prosperity in peril
• Autocratic leaders
• Kleptocracy
• Strong sponsorship from China, Russia and India
• Strategic assets: ports, minerals, location

22. One Country ManyWars

25. Arms Suppliers

27. Myanma Economic Holdings Limited
{MEHL}
• Ruby, Sapphire and Jade mines
• Shipping
• Breweries
• Industrial Parks
• Steel mills
• ……

31. Companies Leaving Office Block

33. Strategic Leverage: Syria

34. Strategic Leverage: Myanmar

35. Economic Leverage
• Kyaukpyu port volume greater than
Felixstowe’s {UK}
• Oil pipeline from Kunming to Bay of Bengal
• Special Economic Zone connecting China to
Bay of Bengal

38. ProxyWars: Myanmar
Warring parties Government vs People
Proxies China vs ??
Government’s story:The election was ‘stolen’.We’ll
return to democracy when appropriate.
People: Give us democracy.We are prepared to die
for it.

39. What the people want

40. Prescription
Short term:
• Diplomacy
• Alliance-building {BD,TH, MY, ID, SG}
Long term:
• Bolster Quad’s capabilities
NATO equivalent not needed

41. Tatmadaw’s Options
• Focus on narcotics or human trafficking for
funds
• Turn to China and/or Russia for materiel
• Create humanitarian crises in BD,TH, IN
• ‘Scorched Earth’ policy for rebel-held
territories

43. “Destroy the country to protect ourselves”, a general has said.
End game?
The military would rather preside over a failed state than give way
to a solution that allows for better governance but dilutes its
power.

44. Refugee Crisis

45. Do Something, Anything
The prospect of instability in India, Bangladesh
is very real.

46. Two Failed States Sandwich
India now has 2 failed states as neighbours:
• Afghanistan {separated from India by lawless parts of
Pakistan}, and
• Myanmar
India’s worry is China’s dividend

47. SarmaVANGALA, Ph D
Chief Executive Officer
Metastrategy, Inc.
• SarmaVangala is a corporate consultant
specialising in Strategy, M&A and Business
Transformation
• Based inToronto, CANADA
• BTech (IIT(M)); PhD (Exon.); Professional Engineer
• sarma.vangala@metastrategyinc.com

48. Dynamics