SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 25
5th
International Conference
on Road and Rail Infrastructure
CETRA 2018
Sarbast Moslem, Szabolcs Duleba
Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME)
Department of Transport Technology and Economics
An Application of Analytic Network Process (ANP)
for Evaluating Public Transport Supply Quality
Content
•Problem statement
•Methodology
•Results
•Suggestions
•Conclusion
•References
Problem Statement
•Public transportation development is decided by
decision makers (DM)s, to make decisions there are
some analytic hierarchical processes for that.
• However there only very few applications which
consider the interrelations between the public transport
supply quality factors.
•The paper aims to analyze the interrelation and the
importance of relevant factors in public transportation
systems by using ANP, that support the decision
makers to evaluate the impacts of different criteria in
the final result.
•The paper discuss the most important factors of supply
quality for public bus transportation system in
Budapest city (Hungary).
Methodology
MCDM applications growth is
getting bigger day by day over
the last 20 years. The following
MCDA or MCDM methods are
available, many of which are
implemented by specialized
decision-making software.
ANP
Most Applied MCDM Methods in Transportation
Projects
Fuzzy ANP
Fig. 1. Most Applied MCDM Methods in Transportation Projects
MCDM
Method Advantages Disadvantages
AHP
-Mathematically proven, eigenvector
method, methodology correct.
-Consistency in evaluation.
-Hierarchy is not always strict as
should to be.
-Interrelations between factors not
flexible.
ANP
-Mathematically proven, eigenvector
method, methodology correct.
-Interrelations between factors flexible.
-Enables the existence of
interdependences among criteria.
-interdependency and feedbacks of
different levels of the network.
- It is hard to fill up the supermatrix
by the public.
- When the decision structure is
basically hierarchal, then AHP from
mathematical point of view is more
effective.
TOPSIS
-Mathematically proven,
-Full use of attribute information
provides a cardinal ranking of options.
-ranking reversal
-correlations between criteria,
-uncertainty in obtaining the
weights only by objective methods
or subjective methods
PROMETHEE
-Mathematically proven, -Non flexibility of the software
package
ELECTRE
-Has a clearer view of alternatives by
eliminating less favorable ones.
-It only produces a core of leading
alternatives.
•There are many approaches of MCDM and each one
has advantages and disadvantages as we mentioned.
•In presented study ANP has been used, Because:
• Our problem is more non-hierarchal (network) structural,
• Consistency check is required
• We do not only have ranking one factor related to other, but also ranking
of scours by using the weights
• Pairwise comparisons (PC)s had to be made by the evaluators
for all the elements of the model.
Criteria Explanation
C1 “Service Quality”, everything excluding transport it self
C2 “Transport Quality”, for real time on vehicle
C3 “Tractability”, getting information from every aspect
C4 “Physical comfort”, comfort of seat, crowdedness, condition air
C5 ”Mental comfort”, contains environmental aspects and behavior of driver
C6 “Safety of travel”, feeling in safe, accidents in the bus, security
C7 “Perspicuity”, clear understanding for schedule and information
C8 “Information before travel”, amount and quality of information
C9 “Information during travel”, availability, quantity and quality of information
C10 “Approachability”, of the service before beginning of travel, ticketing services
C11 “Directness” reaching the destination without shifting vehicles
C12 “Time availability” the time frame when using certain vehicle
C13 “Speed”, speed for the time of whole travel process
C14 “Reliability”, the quality of being trustworthy
C15 “Directness to stops”, reaching the stops for travel
C16 “Safety of stops”, subjective feeling
C17 “Comfort in stops”, heating and cooling systems, seats
C18 “Need of transfer”, do passenger has to change or not
C19
“Fit connection”, between bus lines or between other type of public transportation and bus
lines, guarantee of transfer
C20 “Frequency of lines”, working hours based on schedule
C21 “Limited time of use”, a part of the whole travel process
C22 “Journey time”, related to speed of the vehicle, (get on_ get off)
C23 “Awaiting time”, waiting for public transport
C24 “Time to reach stops” a part of the whole travel process
 276 PCs have been evaluated by 10 transport experts.
 (2760 PCs have been analyzed).
 For determining the
eigenvectors of the
aggregate matrices
the following method
was applied:
Fig 2. The interdependent relationship among the public transport supply quality criteria (source: own)
Fig 3. Supermatrix in ANP (Source: Saaty, 1996)
The geometric mean has been
applied to aggregate
evaluators answers
Results
•The study was made to evaluate the situation of
Budapest’s public bus transport system.
•The characteristics of the conducted survey based on the
network model.
 The evaluation has been done by Judgment scale of
relative importance for PC (Saaty’s 1-9 scale).
 The analytic network analysis has been designed in
SuperDecisions software to get the final scores.
Numerical
values
Verbal scale Explanation
1 Equal importance of both factors Two elements contribute equally
3
Moderate importance of one factor
over another
Experience and judgment favour one
factor over another
5
Strong importance of one factor over
another
An factor is strongly favoured
7
Very strong importance of one factor
over another
An factor is very strongly dominant
9
Extreme importance of one factor over
another
An factor is favoured by at least an order
of magnitude
2,4,6,8 Intermediate values
Used to compromise between two
judgments
Table 1. Judgment scale of relative importance for PC (Saaty’s 1-9 scale)
Rank Criteria Normalized Scores Idealized Scores
1 C3 0,099318574 1
2 C1 0,075111638 0,756269801
3 C2 0,0736722 0,741776659
4 C8 0,060192025 0,606050027
5 C7 0,054193171 0,545649907
6 C23 0,053153161 0,535178453
7 C12 0,050342843 0,506882454
8 C11 0,045123964 0,454335598
9 C6 0,04483899 0,451466309
10 C16 0,041168056 0,414505103
11 C4 0,038746472 0,390123121
12 C20 0,038211198 0,38473366
13 C22 0,035720337 0,359654144
14 C19 0,034160844 0,34395222
15 C10 0,033079581 0,333065402
16 C9 0,03276281 0,329875956
17 C5 0,03117803 0,313919431
18 C13 0,030828966 0,310404836
19 C21 0,026397867 0,265789832
20 C24 0,024273387 0,244399275
21 C14 0,023484878 0,236460083
22 C18 0,019125931 0,192571542
23 C15 0,017946619 0,180697505
24 C17 0,016968459 0,170848795
 151 Interrelations between different criteria have
been detected regarding to aggregating the answers.
(The network model contains (276-151= 125 non interrelations))
 Tractability was the most important criteria
depending on the applied analysis.
 The second important criteria was Service quality
followed by Transport quality.
 The preferences make decisions more flexible and
support DMs to solve the variety of transportation
problem.
 During ANP approach, the consistency of answers has
been examined by Saaty’s Consistency Index (CI),
and Consistency Ratio was (CR) < 0.1.
Suggestions and Conclusion
 The application enables DMs to better understand
for the complex relationships of the relevant
criteria in the decision-making, that subsequently
improve the reliability of the decision.
 Applying ANP approach is quite complicated than
other approaches, because of its large number of
pairwise comparisons (276 PCs), and the
inconsistency check also difficult due to the
Supermatrix.
 Participated experts stated that ANP survey is
quite complicated and require long time to evaluate
the criteria, due to the large number of PC.
 For further researches, another approach is
recommended to be applied regarding the detected
interrelations between the criteria.
References
Asakura, Y.; Kashiwadani, M. 1991. Road network reliability caused by daily fluctuation of traffic flow, in Proceedings
of the 19th. PTRC Summer Annual Meeting. Brighton, 73–84.
Bozoki, S.; Fulop, J.; Ronyai, L. 2010. On optimal completion of incomplete pairwise comparison matrices,
Mathematical and Computer Modelling 52(1–2): 318–333. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.047
Carlsson, C.; Walden, P. 1995. AHP in political group decisions: a study in the art of possibilities, Interfaces 25(4): 14–
29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.25.4.14
Duleba, S.; Mishina, T.; Shimazaki, Y. 2012. A dynamic analysis on public bus transport’s supply quality by using
AHP, Transport 27(3): 268–275. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2012.719838
Murray, A. T. 2001. Strategic analysis of public transport coverage, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 35(3): 175–188.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0038-0121(01)00004-0
Saaty, T.L., 1996. The ANP for decision making with dependence and feedback.
Saaty, Thomas L. 2005. Theory and applications of the analytic network process: decision making with benefits,
opportunities, costs, and risks. RWS publications.
Saaty, T. L. 1977. A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures, Journal of Mathematical Psychology 15(3):
234–281. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5
Yang, J.; Shi, P. 2002. Applying analytic hierarchy process inrm’s overall performance evaluation: a case study in China,
International Journal of Business 7(1): 29–46.
Zahedi, F. 1986. e analytic hierarchy process – a survey of the method and its applications, Interfaces 16(4): 96–108.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.16.4.96
moslem.sarbast@mail.bme.hu

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an application of analytic network process for evaluating public transport supply quality

  • 1. 5th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure CETRA 2018 Sarbast Moslem, Szabolcs Duleba Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME) Department of Transport Technology and Economics An Application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) for Evaluating Public Transport Supply Quality
  • 3. Problem Statement •Public transportation development is decided by decision makers (DM)s, to make decisions there are some analytic hierarchical processes for that. • However there only very few applications which consider the interrelations between the public transport supply quality factors.
  • 4. •The paper aims to analyze the interrelation and the importance of relevant factors in public transportation systems by using ANP, that support the decision makers to evaluate the impacts of different criteria in the final result.
  • 5. •The paper discuss the most important factors of supply quality for public bus transportation system in Budapest city (Hungary).
  • 6. Methodology MCDM applications growth is getting bigger day by day over the last 20 years. The following MCDA or MCDM methods are available, many of which are implemented by specialized decision-making software.
  • 7. ANP Most Applied MCDM Methods in Transportation Projects Fuzzy ANP Fig. 1. Most Applied MCDM Methods in Transportation Projects
  • 8. MCDM Method Advantages Disadvantages AHP -Mathematically proven, eigenvector method, methodology correct. -Consistency in evaluation. -Hierarchy is not always strict as should to be. -Interrelations between factors not flexible. ANP -Mathematically proven, eigenvector method, methodology correct. -Interrelations between factors flexible. -Enables the existence of interdependences among criteria. -interdependency and feedbacks of different levels of the network. - It is hard to fill up the supermatrix by the public. - When the decision structure is basically hierarchal, then AHP from mathematical point of view is more effective. TOPSIS -Mathematically proven, -Full use of attribute information provides a cardinal ranking of options. -ranking reversal -correlations between criteria, -uncertainty in obtaining the weights only by objective methods or subjective methods PROMETHEE -Mathematically proven, -Non flexibility of the software package ELECTRE -Has a clearer view of alternatives by eliminating less favorable ones. -It only produces a core of leading alternatives.
  • 9. •There are many approaches of MCDM and each one has advantages and disadvantages as we mentioned. •In presented study ANP has been used, Because: • Our problem is more non-hierarchal (network) structural, • Consistency check is required • We do not only have ranking one factor related to other, but also ranking of scours by using the weights • Pairwise comparisons (PC)s had to be made by the evaluators for all the elements of the model.
  • 10. Criteria Explanation C1 “Service Quality”, everything excluding transport it self C2 “Transport Quality”, for real time on vehicle C3 “Tractability”, getting information from every aspect C4 “Physical comfort”, comfort of seat, crowdedness, condition air C5 ”Mental comfort”, contains environmental aspects and behavior of driver C6 “Safety of travel”, feeling in safe, accidents in the bus, security C7 “Perspicuity”, clear understanding for schedule and information C8 “Information before travel”, amount and quality of information C9 “Information during travel”, availability, quantity and quality of information C10 “Approachability”, of the service before beginning of travel, ticketing services C11 “Directness” reaching the destination without shifting vehicles C12 “Time availability” the time frame when using certain vehicle C13 “Speed”, speed for the time of whole travel process C14 “Reliability”, the quality of being trustworthy C15 “Directness to stops”, reaching the stops for travel C16 “Safety of stops”, subjective feeling C17 “Comfort in stops”, heating and cooling systems, seats C18 “Need of transfer”, do passenger has to change or not C19 “Fit connection”, between bus lines or between other type of public transportation and bus lines, guarantee of transfer C20 “Frequency of lines”, working hours based on schedule C21 “Limited time of use”, a part of the whole travel process C22 “Journey time”, related to speed of the vehicle, (get on_ get off) C23 “Awaiting time”, waiting for public transport C24 “Time to reach stops” a part of the whole travel process
  • 11.  276 PCs have been evaluated by 10 transport experts.  (2760 PCs have been analyzed).
  • 12.  For determining the eigenvectors of the aggregate matrices the following method was applied:
  • 13. Fig 2. The interdependent relationship among the public transport supply quality criteria (source: own)
  • 14. Fig 3. Supermatrix in ANP (Source: Saaty, 1996) The geometric mean has been applied to aggregate evaluators answers
  • 15. Results •The study was made to evaluate the situation of Budapest’s public bus transport system. •The characteristics of the conducted survey based on the network model.
  • 16.  The evaluation has been done by Judgment scale of relative importance for PC (Saaty’s 1-9 scale).  The analytic network analysis has been designed in SuperDecisions software to get the final scores.
  • 17. Numerical values Verbal scale Explanation 1 Equal importance of both factors Two elements contribute equally 3 Moderate importance of one factor over another Experience and judgment favour one factor over another 5 Strong importance of one factor over another An factor is strongly favoured 7 Very strong importance of one factor over another An factor is very strongly dominant 9 Extreme importance of one factor over another An factor is favoured by at least an order of magnitude 2,4,6,8 Intermediate values Used to compromise between two judgments Table 1. Judgment scale of relative importance for PC (Saaty’s 1-9 scale)
  • 18. Rank Criteria Normalized Scores Idealized Scores 1 C3 0,099318574 1 2 C1 0,075111638 0,756269801 3 C2 0,0736722 0,741776659 4 C8 0,060192025 0,606050027 5 C7 0,054193171 0,545649907 6 C23 0,053153161 0,535178453 7 C12 0,050342843 0,506882454 8 C11 0,045123964 0,454335598 9 C6 0,04483899 0,451466309 10 C16 0,041168056 0,414505103 11 C4 0,038746472 0,390123121 12 C20 0,038211198 0,38473366 13 C22 0,035720337 0,359654144 14 C19 0,034160844 0,34395222 15 C10 0,033079581 0,333065402 16 C9 0,03276281 0,329875956 17 C5 0,03117803 0,313919431 18 C13 0,030828966 0,310404836 19 C21 0,026397867 0,265789832 20 C24 0,024273387 0,244399275 21 C14 0,023484878 0,236460083 22 C18 0,019125931 0,192571542 23 C15 0,017946619 0,180697505 24 C17 0,016968459 0,170848795
  • 19.  151 Interrelations between different criteria have been detected regarding to aggregating the answers. (The network model contains (276-151= 125 non interrelations))  Tractability was the most important criteria depending on the applied analysis.  The second important criteria was Service quality followed by Transport quality.
  • 20.  The preferences make decisions more flexible and support DMs to solve the variety of transportation problem.  During ANP approach, the consistency of answers has been examined by Saaty’s Consistency Index (CI), and Consistency Ratio was (CR) < 0.1.
  • 21. Suggestions and Conclusion  The application enables DMs to better understand for the complex relationships of the relevant criteria in the decision-making, that subsequently improve the reliability of the decision.
  • 22.  Applying ANP approach is quite complicated than other approaches, because of its large number of pairwise comparisons (276 PCs), and the inconsistency check also difficult due to the Supermatrix.
  • 23.  Participated experts stated that ANP survey is quite complicated and require long time to evaluate the criteria, due to the large number of PC.  For further researches, another approach is recommended to be applied regarding the detected interrelations between the criteria.
  • 24. References Asakura, Y.; Kashiwadani, M. 1991. Road network reliability caused by daily fluctuation of traffic flow, in Proceedings of the 19th. PTRC Summer Annual Meeting. Brighton, 73–84. Bozoki, S.; Fulop, J.; Ronyai, L. 2010. On optimal completion of incomplete pairwise comparison matrices, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 52(1–2): 318–333. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.047 Carlsson, C.; Walden, P. 1995. AHP in political group decisions: a study in the art of possibilities, Interfaces 25(4): 14– 29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.25.4.14 Duleba, S.; Mishina, T.; Shimazaki, Y. 2012. A dynamic analysis on public bus transport’s supply quality by using AHP, Transport 27(3): 268–275. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2012.719838 Murray, A. T. 2001. Strategic analysis of public transport coverage, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 35(3): 175–188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0038-0121(01)00004-0 Saaty, T.L., 1996. The ANP for decision making with dependence and feedback. Saaty, Thomas L. 2005. Theory and applications of the analytic network process: decision making with benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks. RWS publications. Saaty, T. L. 1977. A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures, Journal of Mathematical Psychology 15(3): 234–281. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5 Yang, J.; Shi, P. 2002. Applying analytic hierarchy process inrm’s overall performance evaluation: a case study in China, International Journal of Business 7(1): 29–46. Zahedi, F. 1986. e analytic hierarchy process – a survey of the method and its applications, Interfaces 16(4): 96–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.16.4.96

Editor's Notes

  1. DM: Don’t pay full attention to the passenger side “ overall view”
  2. DM: Don’t pay full attention to the passenger side “ overall view”
  3. There are more than 30 approaches, we will discuss the most important and related to the transport projects.
  4. ELECTRE (Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality) Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation)
  5. --(the final ranking can swap when new alternatives are included in the model).
  6. Consistency is much weaker in others Promethe. Only relation of factors don’t have weights
  7. Hierarchal competition procedure L max is the principal eigenvalue of the matrix A If A is a consistency matrix, wj &amp;gt; 0 (j = 1, ..., m) is represents the related weight- coordinate from the previous level; wij &amp;gt; 0 (i = 1, ..., n) is the eigenvector computed from the matrix in the current level,wAi (i = 1, ..., n) is the calculated weight score of current level’s elements.
  8. Pj
The row geometric mean 𝐴 ̅_𝑟^𝑃𝑗 provides the weight of the rth criterion in the pairwise comparison matrix 𝐶^𝑃𝑗 prepared by the jth user.