Cohabitation Mexican states and ethnic populations 1930 onward.

1. Presentation European Society Historical Demography
“The history of cohabitation in
Mexico, 1930-2010”
Leuven (B), 31/8 – 3/9 2016
Ron Lesthaeghe (Vrije Universiteit Brussel )
Albert Esteve (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)
Julieta Quilodrán (Colegio de México)
Antonio López-Gay (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)
Julián López-Colás (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)

2. Data: IPUMS individual census records, all censuses from 1930-2010.
Part of large project with highest levels of geographical detail for most countries,
from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego, hence multilevel analyses (2 levels:
individual+region/municipalities).
Just published:
ESTEVE, A.; R. LESTHAEGHE, R. (eds), 2016: Marriage and Cohabitation in the Americas:
Historical Legacies and Recent Trends, Springer Verlag.
Mexican analysis:
Historical overview possible thanks to the 1930 census records for most states and native
groups.
Here: data for indigenous groups, states, municipalities, education groups and cohorts.
Detailed multilevel analysis thanks to information for municipalities for last three censuses
(1990, 2000, 2010).
Overview
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 2/15

3. The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 3/18
Sierra
Madre
Occidental
Sierra
Nayar
Syst. Volc. Central
Llanura
Costal
Golfo
Yucatan
Sierra Chiapas
Sierra Madre Sur
Golfo
Tehuantepec

4. % share cohabitation among women in union, Mexican
indigenous populations, 1930-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 4/15
HIGH:
SMOc Sierra Madre Occidental
SNA Sierra de Nayar
SCH Sierra Chiapas
MIDDLE:
LCG Llanura Costera Golfo
SMSu Sierra Madre Sur
Gteh Golfo Tehuantepec
LOW:
SVC Systema Volcanico
Central.
YUC Yucatan

5. The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 5/13
1930
1960
1980
Proportion cohabiting
among women 25-29 in
union. 1930-2010
2000
1990
2010

6. Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. Mexican states
1930*-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 6/15
FIXED ORDER LOW TO HIGH AS OF 1960 *1930: 8 States no data

7. Percentage share cohabitation among all women in a union, Mexican
States 1930-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 7/15

8. Percentage cohabitation women 25-29 by education. 1960*-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 8/15
Indicator in 1930
(not included
8 states without data)
*University 1960: sample too
small. 1970 probably also (few
cases).
Illiterate 29.38
Literate 14.03

9. Proportion cohabiting among partnered by single years at 3
censuses. Mexico 1990-2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 9/15

10. Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, No more than
primary education, Mexico
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 10/15
1965-69
1940-44

11. Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, education=
secondary completed, Mexico
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 11/15

12. The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 12/15
Mexican municipalities
1990 2000
2010

13. Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. 2010
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 13/15

14. Highly differentiated incidence of cohabitation 1930, strong indigenous contrasts.
Generally: populations with a pre-Columbian history of state formation, settled agriculture,
castes, marriage rituals in Central Mexico and Yucatan had LOW levels of cohabitation in the
1930 census. Highest levels among northern nomadic population and Chiapas ethnic groups
(consistent with Goody-Borerup hypothesis).
Decline of cohabitation till 1990 census (until cohort of 1960-64), followed by major
UNIVERSAL increase. Phase 1: increasing pro-marriage, expansion state/church control and
“embourgeoisement” (European dominant cultural model); Phase 2: reversal, and catching up
among higher social strata (SDT consistent).
Classic cross-sectional profiles persist at individual level; also cross-sectional historical factors
at municipal level are significant (e.g. secularization level (+), incidence Protestantism (-), ethic
traditions (+), poverty levels (+)). Pattern of disadvantage highly visible, in addition to other
historical/cultural determinants.
Overarching positive trend from the 1990s onward, upward evolution continues. Other SDT
features to be expected (longer cohabitation spells, rise extra-marital fertility among older
women, postponement of first births upper strata). But effects of pattern of disadvantage likely
to remain (e.g. high teenage fertility).
Cohabitation in Mexico 1930-2010– Conclusions:
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 14/15

15. Thank you.
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-
2009-StG-240978
rlesthaeghe@yahoo.com
aesteve@ced.uab.es
Ron Lesthaeghe
Albert Esteve
Julieta Quilodrán
Antonio López-Gay
Julián López-Colás

16. Supplementary slides
useful for discussion part
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016 16
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-
2009-StG-240978

17. Estimated odds ratios of cohabiting as opposed to being married for Mexican women 25-29
in a union, results for individual level variables, Mexico 2000 and 2010
Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01
The initial variance between municipalities in the zero models without covariates was 1.06 in 2000 and 0.65 in 2010

18. Estimated odds ratios from a multilevel logistic regression model of unmarried cohabitation by
contextual characteristics at the municipality, women 25-29 in a union, Mexico 2000 and 2010
(complete model)
Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01
The Remaining variance municipalities in 2000 is 1.06* in the empty model, and 1.10* after controlling for the individual
variables (see Model 2). The same values in 2010 are: 0.65 and 0.66 respectively

19. MÉXICO. Estados o Entidades Federales
The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016 19/13
Aguascalientes

20. Percent cohabiting among partnered women age 25-29 in Mexican states,
1930-2010
* States without data not included in total.
Source: Author’s tabulations based on census samples from IPUMS-International
and INEGI

21. Thank you.
137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016
research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-
2009-StG-240978
rlesthaeghe@yahoo.com
aesteve@ced.uab.es
Ron Lesthaeghe
Albert Esteve
Julieta Quilodrán
Antonio López-Gay
Julián López-Colás