The issue of replacement migration in Europe and its feasibility

2. Cohort Fertility Profiles relative to Cohorts of mid 40s :
Postponement with strong catching up : France, Netherlands

3. Cohort Fertility Profiles (Contd) : postponement & weak recuperation
(Austria) & dramatic postponement (Former GDR)

4. SDT : CONSEQUENCES
AND EXPECTATIONS
• SUSTAINED SUBREPLACEMENT FERTILITY
• COUPLED TO LATE TRANSITION SCHEDULES
• MAINTENANCE OR FURTHER GROWTH OF COHABITATION
AND PARENTHOOD OUTSIDE MARRIAGE
• OVERALL PATTERN NOT MERELY LINKED TO ECONOMIC
CRISIS, BUT ANCHORED TO INDIVIDUALISTIC VALUES
SYSTEM
• NEED FOR REPLACEMENT MIGRATION, SOONER OR
LATER, DESPITE THIS ONLY BEING A PARTIAL SOLUTION
• END OF MONOLINGUAL, MONO-RELIGION, SINGLE ETHNIC
STATES ; GROWTH OF DIVERSITY INSTEAD.
• WILL THE SDT SPREAD TO OTHER NON-EUROPEAN
POPULATIONS, AND BECOME A GLOBAL TRANSITION LIKE
THE FDT ?

5. UNITED NATIONS
POPULATION DIVN.
EU-15 Projections 2000,
2025, 2050
* MEDIUM
VARIANT (left)
* CONSTANT POP.
SIZE (right)
White area =
immigrants since
2000 + offspring

6. EU-15
*Constant size
age group 15-64
(left)
*Constant RATIO
15-64 / 65+
(right)
White = migrants
+ offspring

7. Population 65+ in EU 15 in 4 Scenarios
PERCENT
65+
IF NO
IMMIGRAT.
IF CT POP
SIZE MIGR.
IF CT SIZE
15-64 MIGR
IF CT RATIO
15-64/64 Migr
2000 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5
2025 23.4 22.5 21.5 15.4
2050 29.7 26.3 24.7 15.2
Perc. Points
Change +13.2 +9.8 +8.2 -1.3
UN Population Divn

8. MacDonald-Kippen Total Labour Force Projection Scenarios
• Effect of TFRs returning to 1.80 children in next 15 yrs.
• Effect of Rises in Labour Force Participation rates after
age 30 to levels of 1970 (M) and to Swedish levels at all
ages (F) ; change over next 30 yrs.
• Effect of Increasing Net Migration to 0.5 pct of Total Pop.
Size ( = CND, AUS) : D=200.000pa =>408.000,
NL=35.000pa =>78.000, B=20.000 => 50.000, F & UK=
35.000 => 290.000, US= 760.000 => 1.369.000 pa.

13. LESTHAEGHE-WILLAERT SCENARIOS FOR BELGIUM & THE
NETHERLANDS
• Life Expectancy increases by 7 yrs in 50 yrs time (M + F)
• Activity rates (real) in Full Time Equivalents -- two
hypotheses : 1. Maximum increase to the highest observed
age-specific rate in the 15 countries in EU ( realised in
2020), 2. Intermediate increase to EU-level only in age
groups with lower national rate ( realised in 2015).
• Total Fertility Rates (1.65) restored to 2.0 by 2015.
• Net Migration = 15.000, 30.000, 45.000, 60.000, and
90.000 (for NL)

14. NET MIGRATION ABS. NUMBERS IN BELGIUM
AND THE NETHERLANDS, 1960 -2002
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Years
Saldo
B
NL

15. Ratio 65+ / 20-64 in Belgium & Netherlands, 2000-
2050, different demographic hypotheses.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Ratio65+/20-64M+F
A1-BEL = FERT=CT, LIFE
EXP INCR
A1-NL = idem
A2-BEL = FERT=2.04, LIFE
EXP INCR
A2-NL = idem
B1-BEL = A1 + IMMIG=30.000
B1-NL = idem
B2-BEL = A1 + IMMIG=60.000
B2-NL =idem
B3-BEL = A2 + IMMIG=30.000
B3-NL = idem
B4-BEL= A2 + IMMIG=60.000
B4-NL = idem

16. Age Specific Employment Rates in FTEs in
Belgium, the Netherlands, EU15, and
"Maximum", 2001.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15-
19
20-
24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
39
40-
44
45-
49
50-
54
55-
59
60-
64
65+
Age Group
Empl.RatesinFTEs
NL-M
NL-V
B-M
B-V
EU15-M
EU15-V
"MAX"-M
"MAX"-V

17. PCT CHANGE LABOUR FORCE 2050
COMPARED TO 2000 - VARIOUS SCENARIOS
-40 -20 0 20
Belgium
Netherlds
CHANGE LF SIZE
^2.04 CT 60000
^2.04 CT 30000
CT CT 60000
CT CT 45000
CT CT 15000
#REF!
^2.04 ^Max 0
CT ^Max 0
^2.04 ^Interm 0
CT ^Interm 0
^2.04 CT 0
TFR=CT EMPR=CT
MIGR=0

18. Conclusions
• No way to stop ageing via replacement migration alone : numbers
completely irrealistic (unless “deportation”)
• Replacement migration is only a partial measure which works best if
immigrants are in families, sex-balanced, with fertility at or above
replacement level. Single sex labour migration is not demographically
sound.
• Replacement migration leads to “multicultural” societies, but it takes
several generations to get to a decisive shift with respect to “ancestral
origins”. Question : are the third and fourth generations “integrated”?
• Short term imperatives for D,NL,B : increase labour force participation
after age 50 !
• Overall : increase productivity via technological innovation and sound
capital investment. And reduce public debt !!