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Sample variability makes it difficult to distinguish between noise and true shifts. Traditionally, we rely on rolling averages to smooth out the extremes. Kalman Filter offers a flexible alternative and allows us to incorporate prior/additional information related to the sample and the market environment.
Note, in statistics and control theory, Kalman filtering, also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE), is an algorithm that uses a series of measurements observed over time, containing statistical noise and other inaccuracies, and produces estimates of unknown variables that tend to be more accurate than those based on a single measurement alone, by estimating a joint probability distribution over the variables for each timeframe. The filter is named after Rudolf E. Kálmán, one of the primary developers of its theory. One of the first uses of Kalman Filter was in the Apollo navigation computer.
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