Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2015 Survey Update
Issued 13th April 2015
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month.  These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration.  The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction).  The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction         50.0 = No Change       > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

Global output growth for both manufacturing and
services picks up in March to a 6-month high
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction

EZ manufacturing & service sector growth picks up
with retail & construction still in contraction mode
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services
Construction Retail No Change

The Eurozone’s composite PMI signals economic
growth rate rising in Q1 2015
EZ GDP versus EZ Composite PMI
Composite excludes construction
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
GDP % Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI
Source: Bloomberg & Markit Economics
EZ Q4-14
GDP 0.3%

The UK & RoI are ranked 3rd & 4th in terms of
manufacturing output growth performance in March
PMIs: Manufacturing Output March 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Indonesia
Brazil
S.Africa
Turkey
Australia
Austria
France
Russia
Canada
S.Korea
Greece
Switzerland
NI
Singapore
Taiwan
China
N.Zealand*
Japan
Vietnam
Netherlands
Global
EZ
India
EU
Italy
Mexico
Czech Republic
Germany
Spain
Poland
Ireland
UK
US
Denmark
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *February
UK, RoI & NI€

The Republic of Ireland, US & the UK posted the fastest
rates of service sector output growth in March
PMIs: Services Output March 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Russia
Brazil
Japan
Italy
Emerging Markets
China
France
NI
Australia
India
EZ
Global
EU
Germany
Developed Markets
Spain
UK
US*
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
€

Germany, Italy, Spain & the UK all report an acceleration
in their respective growth rates in March
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion

US (Markit PMI not ISM), EZ & UK PMIs posted a pick up
in growth in March. Japan saw a contraction in growth
Composite PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Eurozone US (Markit) China Japan UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US begins Jul-11

The US ISM points to a significant slowdown in
manufacturing activity in recent months
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change

Diverging performance within Emerging Markets with
Brazil returning to contraction with Russia
Composite PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets

Australia’s services & manufacturing sectors on both
sides of the 50 threshold in March
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services No Change

NI posts its 1st month of expansion, albeit marginal, in
4 months but still lags behind the UK & RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI
50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**

PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index (combines
indices for construction, services, agriculture & industrial production) throughout 2014
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
NICEI Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI
NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: DFP NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank /
Markit Economics NI PMI,Q2 2014 is latest data for NICEI.
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI Expansion
Contraction

2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity,
new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

NI’s recovery took hold in H2-13 with all indicators
improving in H1-14 but easing in H2-14 & H1-15
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H22007H12007H22008H12008H22009H12009H22010H12010H22011H12011H22012H12012H22013H12013H22014H12014H22015H1*
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to Q1 2015

NI firms reporting simultaneous growth in employment,
output and orders for the first time since November
NI Private Sector Activity
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

UK & RoI continue to report robust rates of orders
growth while NI firms post modest rates of expansion
Private Sector New Orders
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
NI UK RoI
Ordersincreasing
OrdersContracting

Backlogs of work continue to grow in the UK & RoI but
NI posts a 6th month of contraction as activity slows
Private Sector Backlogs
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
NI UK RoI
IncreasingDecreasing

Export orders flat or falling in each of the last 5 months
NI New Export Business
Monthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
New Export Orders No Change

PMI signals the fastest rate of jobs growth in 7 yrs in Q2
with the rate of job creation easing sharply & levelling off
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job
Losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes
threshold between expansion /
contraction.

Employment growth eases in March for all 3 economies
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
NI UK RoI
JobGainsJobLosses

Inflationary pressures remain subdued with output
prices still falling
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Profits
squeeze
Price of goods
& services

Scotland was the only UK region to see a contraction in
output in March
Output / Business Activity
March 2015
50 = No change
49.4
50.2
59.6
58.7
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal Y&H SE UK SW EM NE NW East NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

Most of the UK regions & the RoI posted strong rates of
growth in Q1 with only NI & Scotland contracting
Q1 2015
50 = No change
60.2
49
57.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal UK SE Y&H SW NW East EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index

The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business
activity over the last 12 months & Scotland the slowest
12 months to March 2015
50 = No change
55.0
58.0
60.4
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
Lon NE Wal SE WM East UK Y&H EM NW SW NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

The RoI posts the fastest rate of employment growth in
March while NI records the slowest pace of job creation
Employment Levels
March 2015
50 = No change
51.5
59.1
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Y&H WM Lon SW UK East SE EM NW Wal NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index

NI & Scotland post the weakest rates of job creation
within the UK over the last 3 months
Employment Levels
Q1 2015
50 = No change
51.3
56.6
51.1
59
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
WM Lon East Y&H UK SE NW SW Wal EM NE NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of
jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
Employment Levels
12 months to March 2015
50 = No change
56.2
53
58.1
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East Y&H WM Lon UK NW SE EM SW Wal Scot NI NE RoI
PMI Index

UK manufacturing & services sectors report an
acceleration in output growth in March
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Services Manufacturing Construction

UK posts strong rates of economic growth between Q1-
13 & Q3-14. Growth eased in Q4 but picks up in Q1-15
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
UK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics

RoI output growth across all sectors but a marked
slowdown in the pace of growth in construction output
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
Monthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change

All sector’s experienced weaker growth in H2-14
relative to H1-14 with H1-15 set to be even weaker
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H
22007H12007H22008H
12008H22009H
12009H
22010H12010H
22011H
12011H22012H
12012H
22013H12013H
22014H
12014H22015H
1*
PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to Q1

All sectors experienced a rapid slowdown in output growth
in H2 with services outperforming the other sectors
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics &
Ulster Bank NI PMI

Services, manufacturing & construction firms all
reported employment growth in Q1 2015
NI PMI - Employment Index
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Manufacturing Services Construction
JobGainsJobLosses

Manufacturing firms report a sharp slowdown in Q4-14
with signs of stabilisation / recovery in Q1-15
NI Manufacturing Activity - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Business activity New Orders Employment
GrowthContraction

RoI firms continue to post strong rates of output growth
UK posted a marked pick-up with NI lagging behind
Manufacturing Output
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK NI RoI No Change

Slowdown in orders growth has been marked amongst
NI manufacturing firms with a pick-up in March
Manufacturing New Orders
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK NI RoI No Change

Until recently, NI had been outperforming most of its
European competitors. But is now mid-table
Manufacturing Output - PMI
NI
20
30
40
50
60
70
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI France

Input cost inflation remains close to a 6-year low. Output
prices falling at their fastest rate in over 5 years
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Profits
squeeze

PMI signals a moderation in manufacturing employment
growth in H2-14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMIv QES**
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
Discontinuity in
QES Series
Job Losses
Job gains
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
contraction.

Service sector experiences a slowdown in output &
orders growth in Q1 but jobs growth accelerates
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating

RoI firms maintain strong rates of output growth but NI
firms have experienced a marked slowdown in Q1 2015
Services Output (excluding Retail)
30
40
50
60
70
UK NI RoI No Change

NI firms fail to match the robust rates of growth in the
UK & RoI with orders growth flat in January & February
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
30
40
50
60
70
UK NI RoI No Change

NI’s services firms report a pick-up in input & output
cost inflation in March
NI Services Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Profits
squeeze

NI services firms increased their staffing levels in March
but well below the rates of growth in the UK & RoI
Services Employment
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK RoI NI No Change

Pace of job creation within the services sector eased
in H2-14 but has picked up in Q1-15
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES**
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011 Q1 2013 Q1 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
Job losses
Job gains
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
contraction.

NI retailers starting 2015 the way 2014 ended with
output & orders still contracting at a rapid rate
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change

Local retailers report heavy discounting with output
prices falling at rates seen in mid-2009
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI Profits squeeze

Since Q2-14’s record rates of growth, NI’s construction
firms report a significant easing in their rates of growth
NI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
50 = No change

Input cost inflation easing rapidly with output price
inflation broadly flat
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
Input Prices Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation

NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth since Q3 2013
but this is largely due to NI firms working outside of NI
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2005 Q1 2007 Q3 2010 Q1 2012 Q3 2015 Q1
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Q/Q
Job losses
Job
gains
**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold
between expansion / contraction.

Strong rates of output growth amongst UK firms with
slowdown amongst RoI firms & contraction with NI firms
Construction Sector Output - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
NI UK RoI

NI orders fall marginally in Q1 with RoI growth slowing too.
UK firms reporting a pick-up in demand
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
NI UK RoI

Opportunities for NI firms with civil engineering
activity reporting a pick-up in Q1 2015
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity

UK sub-contractor rates rising at their fastest rate
since the survey began as worker availability an issue
RoI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Nov-01 Jul-03 Mar-05 Nov-06 Jul-08 Mar-10 Nov-11 Jul-13 Mar-15
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors
IncraesingDecreasing

UK construction firms are more optimistic about the
year ahead than at any time since February 2006
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Future Activity Long-Term Average
OptimismPessimism
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the same?

RoI’s construction activity experiences a marked
slowdown from recent highs across all sectors
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
50 = No change

RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in
the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
RoI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-00 Nov-01 Jul-03 Mar-05 Nov-06 Jul-08 Mar-10 Nov-11 Jul-13 Mar-15
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors
IncraesingDecreasing

Despite slowdown in construction sector activity,
firms remain very optimistic about the year ahead
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RoI Future Activity RoI Long-Term Average
OptimismPessimism
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the same?

Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
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Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015

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Slide pack , Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, March 2015