Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
May 2015 Survey Update
Issued 8th June 2015
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month.  These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration.  The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction).  The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction         50.0 = No Change       > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

Global output growth eases to a 4-month low due to a
slowdown in services activity
Global Output - PMI
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
Total Manufacturing Services
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction

EZ manufacturing & services sectors growth eases slightly
with retail returning to growth for the 1st time in 14mths
Eurozone PMIs: Output
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services
Construction Retail No Change

The Eurozone’s composite PMI signals economic
growth rate rising in H1 2015
EZ GDP versus EZ Composite PMI
Composite excludes construction
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
GDP % Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI
Source: Bloomberg & Markit Economic, * PMI refers to average for
April & May
EZ Q1-15
GDP 0.4%

The RoI is ranked 1st in terms of manufacturing output
growth performance again in May
PMIs: Manufacturing Output May 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Brazil
Indonesia
S.Korea
Greece
France
Denmark
Taiwan
China
Russia
S.Africa
Turkey
Singapore
Canada
Switzerland
Japan
Global
Germany
N.Zealand*
Austria
UK
Australia
EU
EZ
NI
Mexico
Poland
India
US
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Vietnam
Italy
Spain
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *March
UK, RoI
& NI
€

The Republic of Ireland, Spain & the UK posted the
fastest rates of service sector output growth in May
PMIs: Services Output May 2015
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Brazil
Australia
India
Japan
Emerging Markets
Italy
Russia
France
Germany
China
EZ
Global
EU
Developed Markets
NI
US*
UK
Spain
Ireland
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
€

Ireland & France saw growth accelerate in May whereas
other economies reported a slowdown
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
ContractionExpansion

US, EZ, UK & China PMIs posted a slowdown in growth
in May. Japan saw a pick-up in its growth rate
Composite PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
Eurozone US (Markit) China Japan UK
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, US begins Jul-11

All manufacturing PMIs improved in May relative to April
Manufacturing PMIs
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone No Change

Diverging Emerging Markets performance with Russia
improving but Brazil’s recession deepens
Composite PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Brazil Russia India Emerging Markets

Australia’s services & manufacturing sectors on
opposite sides of the 50 threshold in May
Australia - PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15
Manufacturing Services No Change

NI posts its fastest rate of output growth in 7 months
but continues to lag behind the UK & RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
May-03 May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI
50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**

PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index
throughout 2014 but recovery stalls in H1 2015
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015 Q2*
NICEI Q/Q%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI
NICEI Left Hand Scale PMI Right Hand Scale
Source: DFP NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) & Ulster Bank /
Markit Economics NI PMI,Q2 2014 is latest data for NICEI.*Q2 refers
to average of April & May for the PMI only
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI Expansion
Contraction

2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity,
new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI

NI recovery took hold in H2-13, all indicators improved in H1-
14 & eased in H2-14. Exports & business activity fell in H1-15
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H
22007H
12007H
22008H
12008H
22009H
12009H
22010H
12010H
22011H
12011H
22012H
12012H
22013H
12013H
22014H
12014H
22015H
1*
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to 5 months to May 2015

NI firms report a marked pick-up in business activity
and new orders with employment growth continuing
NI Private Sector Activity
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Business Activity New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI

UK & RoI continue to report robust rates of orders
growth while NI firms post modest rates of expansion
Private Sector New Orders
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
NI UK RoI
OrdersincreasingOrdersContracting

Backlogs of work continue to grow in the UK & RoI but
NI posts an 8th month of contraction
Private Sector Backlogs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
NI UK RoI
IncreasingDecreasing

Export orders flat or falling in each of the last 7 months
with £/€ exchange rate impacting on price competitiveness
NI New Export Business
Monthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
New Export Orders No Change

PMI signals fastest rate of jobs growth in 7yrs in Q2 but rate of
jobs growth eases sharply in H2-14 but rebounds in H1-15
NI Employment: PMI v QES**
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes public sector
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job
Losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold
between expansion / contraction. * average
of April & May for PMI only

RoI firms report a pick-up in employment growth in May
with NI & UK maintaining their April rates of growth
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
NI UK RoI
JobGainsJobLosses

Inflationary pressures remain subdued but have been
picking up whereas output prices continue to fall
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Profits
squeeze
Price of goods &
services rising

All UK regions report output growth in May
Output / Business Activity
May 2015
50 = No change
60.9
52.7
51.9
55.8
40
45
50
55
60
65
NE Wal East Lon UK NW SE SW WM EM Y&H NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

Most of the UK regions posted strong rates of growth over
the last 3 months but rates of growth weak for Scotland & NI
3 months to May 2015
50 = No change
57.5
60.1
50.7
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon NE Wal SE WM UK East Y&H NW SW EM Scot NI RoI
PMI Index

The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business
activity over the last 12 months & Scotland the slowest
50 = No change
53.2
57.6
60.4
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
NE Wal Lon SE WM East UK Y&H NW EM SW NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

The RoI posts the fastest rate of employment growth
while Scotland records the slowest pace of job creation
Employment Levels
May 2015
50 = No change
51.6
53.0
59.8
52.7
55.7
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
East Wal SW NW WM UK Lon Y&H EM NI SE NE Scot RoI
PMI Index

NI & Scotland post the weakest rates of job creation
within the UK over the last 3 months
Employment Levels
50 = No change
52.5
55.9
51.6
58.8
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East WM Y&H SW Lon UK Wal NW EM SE NE NI Scot RoI
PMI Index

Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of
jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
Employment Levels
50 = No change
56.1
52.5
58.4
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
East WM Y&H UK Lon SW NW SE EM Wal Scot NI NE RoI
PMI Index

UK manufacturing & services output growth eases in May
with construction reporting a pick-up in its growth rate
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15
Services Manufacturing Construction

UK posts strong rates of growth between Q1-13 & Q3-14.
Growth eased in Q1 contrary to what the PMI signalled
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
UK Composite includes Construction
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
GDP Q/Q
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, * PMI refers to average of April
& May

RoI output growth accelerates across all sectors in May
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
Monthly
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change

All sectors experienced weaker growth in H2-14
relative to H1-14 with H1-15 set to be even weaker
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H
22007H
12007H
22008H
12008H
22009H
12009H
22010H
12010H
22011H
12011H
22012H
12012H
22013H
12013H
22014H
12014H
22015H
1*
PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI, * refers to 5 months to May

NI’s manufacturing & services firms report a marked
pick-up in output growth in May
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics &
Ulster Bank NI PMI

Services, manufacturing & construction firms all
reported employment growth during the last 3 months
NI PMI - Employment Index
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Manufacturing Services Construction
JobGainsJobLosses

Manufacturing firms report a sharp slowdown in Q4-14
with a strong rebound in activity in the 3 months to May
NI Manufacturing Activity
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nov-03 Oct-05 Sep-07 Aug-09 Jul-11 Jun-13 May-15
Business activity New Orders Employment
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating

RoI firms continue to post strong rates of output growth
with NI firms reporting a pick-up in growth in April & May
Manufacturing Output
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK NI RoI No Change

NI firms report a significant rebound in new orders growth
in April & May with RoI firms still outperforming UK & NI
Manufacturing New Orders
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK NI RoI No Change

Until recently, NI had been outperforming most of its
European competitors. But is now mid-table
Manufacturing Output - PMI
NI
20
30
40
50
60
70
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI France

Input cost inflation picking up but remains subdued with
output prices still falling
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation
Profits
squeeze

PMI signals moderation in manufacturing jobs growth in H2-
14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2 but rebound in Q2-15
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES**
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
Discontinuity in
QES Series
Job
Losses
Job gains
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes
threshold between expansion /
contraction. * refers to April & May
average.

Service sector experiences a pick-up in output and
orders growth but firms are hiring staff at a slower rate
NI Service Sector (excludes Retail)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Business activity New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
GrowthacceleratingContractionaccelerating

RoI firms maintain strong rates of output growth but NI
firms have experienced a marked slowdown in H1 2015
Services Output (excluding Retail)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
UK NI RoI No Change

NI firms fail to match the robust rates of growth in the UK &
RoI with orders growth rising modestly over last 3 months
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
30
40
50
60
70
UK NI RoI No Change

NI’s services firms report a pick-up in input cost
inflation in May with pricing power returning
NI Services Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
InflationDeflation

NI services firms increased their staffing levels over the
last 3 months but below the rates of growth in the UK & RoI
Services Employment
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
UK RoI NI No Change

Pace of job creation within the services sector eased
in H2-14 but has picked up in H1-15
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES**
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 Q2 2007 Q2 2009 Q2 2011 Q2 2013 Q2 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
**QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of
jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes
threshold between expansion /
contraction. * average of April & May

NI retailers continue to report significant contractions in
sales although the pace of decline in orders is slowing
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
25
35
45
55
65
75
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change

NI retailers report discounting with output prices falling for
the last 9 months. Input cost inflation at a 9-month high
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI Profits squeeze

NI’s construction firms report a decline in activity and
new orders but continue to increase staffing levels
NI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Output New Orders Employment
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
50 = No change

Input cost inflation easing rapidly with output price
inflation beginning to rise
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
Input Prices Output Prices No Change
InflationDeflation

NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth since Q3 2013
but this is largely due to NI firms working outside of NI
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES**
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2005 Q2 2007 Q4 2010 Q2 2012 Q4 2015 Q2*
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Q/Q
Job losses
Job
gains
**QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold
between expansion / contraction.
* average of April & May for PMI only

Strong rates of output growth amongst RoI firms with
slowdown amongst UK firms & contraction with NI firms
Construction Sector Output - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
NI UK RoI

NI orders decrease over last 3 months with UK growth
slowing too. RoI firms reporting a pick-up in demand
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
PMI Index
NI UK RoI

UK firms report a pick-up in housing & civil engineering
activity in May with commercial activity easing
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
Monthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity

UK sub-contractor rates recently rising at their fastest rate
since the survey began as worker availability an issue
UK Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors No Change
IncraesingDecreasing

UK construction firms remain more optimistic about
the year ahead than at any time since February 2006
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Future Activity Long-Term Average
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the
?

RoI’s construction activity experiences a marked pick-
up in demand in May across all sectors
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
Monthly
20
30
40
50
60
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity

RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in
the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
RoI Construction PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May-00 Jan-02 Sep-03 May-05 Jan-07 Sep-08 May-10 Jan-12 Sep-13 May-15
Rates Charged By Sub-Contractors Availability of Sub-Contractors
IncraesingDecreasing

RoI construction firms remain very optimistic about
the year ahead
Future Business Activity Index - PMIs
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RoI Future Activity RoI Long-Term Average
OptimismPessimism
In 12mths time do you expect overall activity to be higher than now, lower, or the
?

Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur
substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Calls may be recorded.

Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015

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Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, May 2015