Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2015 Survey Update
Issued 14th December 2015
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. Global output rebounds to a 3-month high with
improvements in manufacturing & services

4. Composite PMIs for the US (Markit PMI not ISM), China,
the Eurozone and the UK all improved in November

5. Developed Markets continue to outperform Emerging
Markets

6. Emerging Markets PMI back above 50 but only just. India,
which has escaped the slowdown thus far, wilts in November

7. Chinese Composite PMI back above 50 for the first
time in 4 months

8. Australia’s services sector hits an 11-month low while
manufacturing reaches a 25-month high

9. All economies bar France posted better composite PMIs
in November relative to October

10. EZ manufacturing & services sector growth rates increase
but retail sales & construction activity still contracting

11. The Eurozone composite PMI signals a loss of
momentum in Q3 but some improvement in Q4

12. The Republic of Ireland, Spain, the US & UK posted the
fastest rates of service sector output growth in November

13. Manufacturing activity picked-up in Japan & the EZ but the
US ISM joined the Chinese PMI in contraction territory

14. Developed Markets continue to outperform Emerging
Markets in terms of manufacturing

15. UK manufacturing output growth still ranks higher than
most with RoI mid-table and NI struggling at the bottom

16. UK, NI and RoI firms all report a pick-up in their
respective rates of business growth in November

17. PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index during
2014 but recovery stalls in Q1-15 with a modest rebound in Q2 to Q4

18. 2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity,
new orders, employment & export orders all expanded

19. Output & new orders growth slow in Q4* relative to
Q3 but export & employment growth accelerates

20. NI firms post a pick-up in the pace of job creation, new
orders growth and business activity

21. RoI & NI firms report a slowdown in new orders growth
(albeit RoI growth rate remains very strong). UK posts a pick-up

22. Backlogs of work continue to grow amongst RoI firms
with levels of outstanding work for NI & UK firms falling

23. Export orders flat in November following a period of growth

24. RoI & NI firms report a pick-up in the rates of job creation
with NI firms hiring at their fastest rate in 14 months

25. PMI signalled a slowdown in jobs growth in H2-14 but
employment growth has accelerated since then

26. Inflationary pressures remain relatively subdued and
output prices are falling again

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. All UK regions bar Scotland post output growth in
November

29. All UK regions bar Scotland posted growth in the 3
months to November with NI lagging behind the UK

30. The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business
activity over the last 12 months & Scotland & NI the slowest

31. North East, Scotland & the North West post the weakest
rates of job creation within the UK in November

32. Scotland and the North East post the weakest rates of
job creation within the UK over the last 3 months

33. Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of
jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest

34. Sectoral
Comparisons

35. UK services firms reported a pick-up in output growth but
manufacturing & construction reported slower growth

36. The UK’s growth rate in Q3 moderated in line with the
PMI to 0.5% q/q. A similar growth rate is expected in Q4

37. Output growth within manufacturing & services picks up
in November while growth slows in construction sector

38. Retail & construction posted stronger rates of growth in H2*
than H1 while services held steady & manufacturing slowed

39. NI manufacturing output slowing fast with services &
construction in particular posting a pick-up in output growth

40. Jobs growth within the services & construction sectors
accelerates while manufacturing industry is losing jobs

41. NI’s manufacturing firms have experienced a marked
slowdown since mid-2015. Contraction in 2016?

42. RoI firms post a sharp slowdown in output growth with NI
now signalling contraction. UK firms bucking the trend

43. NI firms report a marked divergence in manufacturing
orders growth than their equivalents in the UK & RoI

44. All economies bar France & NI saw their PMIs improve
in November. NI & Greece in contraction mode

45. Input cost inflation for manufacturers remains
subdued with output price deflation accelerating

46. NI manufacturing firms now reporting job losses at their
fastest pace in 2½ years. UK & RoI are still creating jobs

47. NI PMI signals moderation in jobs growth in H2-14 & Q1-15
following record high in Q2-14. Job losses apparent in Q4

48. NI services sector experiences a pick-up in output,
orders and employment growth in November

49. All three economies report a pick up in the rate of
growth in services output in November

50. The rate of growth in NI’s services sector is well
below the pre-downturn long-term average

51. RoI firms still report very strong rates of new orders
growth whilst growth amongst NI & UK firms lags behind

52. Input cost inflation remains relatively strong for
services firms but a degree of pricing power remains

53. All three economies report an acceleration in the rate of
employment growth in the three months to November

54. Pace of job creation within services sector eased in H2-
14 but has picked up and accelerated throughout 2015

55. NI retailers report a significant moderation in sales
growth with job creation easing too & orders falling

56. NI retailers report output price deflation with output prices
recently falling at their fastest rate since June 2009

57. NI’s construction firms reporting rising rates of output,
new orders & employment growth

58. Input cost inflation remains subdued as local firms
continue to enjoy pricing power

59. NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth Q3-13 to
Q4-15 with a dip in employment in Q3-15

60. UK & RoI firms reporting strong rates of output growth
but growth rate is slowing. NI firms catching up

61. New orders growth remains steady in the UK & RoI with NI
firms reporting a marked acceleration in new orders growth

62. UK firms post robust rates of growth in housing &
commercial activity with civil engineering lagging behind

63. UK sub-contractors remain in short-supply with rates
charged still rising

64. Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains high

65. Construction activity linked to civil engineering & housing
eases in November with commercial activity improving

66. RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in
the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay

67. RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic
about the year ahead

68. Slide 68
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