Northern Ireland

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2019 Survey Update
Issued 9th December 2019
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. • Global output growth quickens to a 4-mth high (51.5) with
manufacturing (50.9) & services (51.6) output at 11-mth & 3-mth highs
• Growth accelerates in China, US, Spain, India & Republic of Ireland
• US composite PMI rises to a 4-mth high
• Chinese composite hits 21-mth high (53.2) with manufacturing hitting its
highest level in almost 3 years (51.8)
• Developed Markets’ PMI rebounds off a 7-year low (50.9)
• Composite PMIs for Germany, Italy, Japan & UK all post contraction
• Global manufacturing export orders fall for 15th month in a row
• EZ composite unchanged at 50.6 (Sep was a 75-mth low of 50.1)
• Ireland’s composite PMI rebounds off its 77-mth low (50.5) to 51.9
• UK composite PMI (48.9) posts its fifth contraction in six months
• UK construction, manufacturing & services sectors all post declines
November 2019 Global PMIs – Key highlights

4. • Private sector output fell to a seven year low of 42.3
• New orders hit a 7½-year low of 40.4
• All four sectors saw output fall for the 6th month out of the last 7
• Export orders (40.6) plunge for 10th month running
• Employment falls for the 11th month running (49.1)
• Retail orders falling at their fastest pace (33.7) since March 2009
• Pricing power weakens with output price rises at a 44-month low
• Manufacturing & services firms engaged in discounting prices
• Construction orders plunge to an 92-mth low (35.9)
• Construction shedding jobs at fastest pace in 42 months (46.4)
• NI saw the sharpest falls in output and orders of all UK regions
• NI firms are the most optimistic about year ahead in 10 months
• NI firms remain the least optimistic in the UK for 12-mths ahead
November 2019 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

5. Global output growth improves as manufacturing
activity hits an 11-mth high

6. US and Chinese composite PMIs improve hitting 4-month
and 21-month highs respectively. Japan stagnating.

7. Emerging Markets PMI maintains growth rate at 8-mth
high while Developed Markets PMI comes off a 7-yr low

8. An acceleration in growth rates for China and India
takes Emerging Markets PMI to an 8-mth high

9. Chinese composite hits a 21-mth high (53.2) with
manufacturing (51.8) at its highest level in almost 3 years

10. Growth accelerates for Spain & RoI while pace of expansion
eases for France. Italy joins Germany in contraction

11. EZ services & construction output growth rates soften
while the pace of manufacturing decline eases

12. EZ PMI slowdown continues suggesting lacklustre
GDP growth

13. Russia posts the fastest rates of growth in services
activity while NI records the fastest rates of decline

14. US manufacturing index remains in contraction with
Japan & EZ. China rallies to a 35-mth high

15. Emerging Markets’ manufacturing PMI remains at a 6-mth
high with Developed Markets still falling (6th month high)

16. RoI’s growth rate rebounds off 77-mth low. UK posts its
fourth monthly fall while NI hits a seven-year low

17. PMI falling sharply suggesting that the Composite Index will
head south too in Q3 & Q4.

18. 2019 has witnessed a U-turn in growth rates

19. Business conditions deteriorating markedly in Q2-Q4*

20. NI’s private sector rates of contraction accelerate for
output & orders but ease for employment

21. RoI new orders growth quickens again following recent
76-mth low while NI & UK order books shrink again

22. NI & UK firms continue to report a decline in backlogs
with RoI firms also eating into outstanding work too

23. The slump in NI export orders continues

24. NI’s private sector loses jobs for a 11th month in a row
with UK following. RoI jobs growth continues

25. NI’s firms in hiring mode in 2018 / early 2019 but the PMI
suggests period of net employment gains have passed

26. Squeeze on profit margins continues as pricing
power weakens

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. Only one UK region posts meaningful growth in November

29. NI posts the fastest rate of decline for all the UK
regions in the three months to November

30. Wales posts the fastest rates of output over the last
12-months with NI ranked 12th of 12

31. NI’s private sector remains more pessimistic about the
future than any other UK region by quite a margin

32. 8 of the 12 UK regions report falling staffing levels

33. NI firms’ rate of decline in staffing levels is in line
with the UK average

34. Yorkshire & the Humber & the North East are at
opposite ends of the jobs growth table

35. Sectoral
Comparisons

36. UK services output growth falls at its fastest pace since
Mar-09 joining the other two sectors in contraction

37. UK PMI underestimated the pace of decline in UK GDP
growth in Q2 2019 but has overestimated the Q3 rate

38. RoI manufacturing returns to contraction with construction.
But service sector posts a pick-up in growth

39. Manufacturing returns to growth in Q4* but pace of
contraction quickens for retail & construction

40. All sectors posting a contraction in output

41. Staffing levels reduced within construction, services &
manufacturing

42. Input cost inflationary pressures remain most elevated
within retail

43. Pricing power fading fast for manufacturing and
services firms with retail price rises accelerating

44. NI manufacturers report an easing in the pace of
deterioration in Q4

45. NI, UK & RoI manufacturing output contracting

46. NI manufacturing output contraction continues

47. Contraction in new orders across all three economies
with NI posting the sharpest rates of decline

48. NI’s manufacturing output performance on a par with its
EU counterparts but Greece is the star performer

49. Global & UK inflationary pressures remain subdued but
NI manufacturers report inflationary pressures

50. Manufacturing firms’ pricing power slumps

51. NI & UK manufacturing firms shedding staff with RoI’s
headcount broadly flat

52. NI’s services sector reports a deterioration in
conditions with falling output, orders & employment

53. NI firms report a sharp fall in service sector output with
UK contracting & both economies lagging behind the RoI

54. NI’s services sector in contraction mode

55. Services firms in the RoI report a slowdown in new
orders growth while NI’s sharp contraction continues

56. A softening in service sector demand accompanied by
some easing in pricing power recently

57. Slowdown in service sector activity hitting hiring. NI &
UK firms reporting a modest reduction in headcount

58. Retail sales, orders & jobs falling

59. NI retailers report a marked increase in input cost inflation

60. NI’s construction firms report a marked fall in output &
new orders but a modest reduction in staffing levels

61. Input cost inflation remains elevated with pricing
power subdued

62. NI, UK & RoI construction firms report falling output

63. RoI firms report a slowdown in new orders growth while UK
& NI firms report significant rates of contraction

64. RoI & UK construction industries still expect growth next
year whereas NI firms expect output to be markedly lower

65. All sectors within construction are contracting with
Civil Engineering close to decade lows

66. Construction sector’s shortage of sub-contractors picks
up again with rates charged still rising

67. Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains
unchanged but remains well below its’ long-term average

68. RoI housing activity posts its first contraction in almost
6.5 years with civil engineering hitting a 6.5 year low

69. RoI’s construction firms still reporting a decline in the
availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay

70. RoI construction firms’ confidence remains above its
recent 8-1/2 year low

71. Slide 71
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