Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists delivered on 7th April, 2016

1. 7th April 2016
Guild of Agricultural
Journalists
Breakfast Briefing

2. Slide 2
Inflation & Interest Rates
€urozone
Crisis
Outlook positive notwithstanding risks & challenges
Strong
Demand
?
Brexit
£ / €
TTIP

3.  Brent crude oil price $38.7pb ($64.9)
 Brent crude £27.5pb (£43)
 Petrol 104.5ppl Diesel 105.3ppl (113.6p & 119.6p)
 €uro = 80.8p (71.8p)
 £ = €1.238 (€1.39)
 £ = $1.41 ($1.506)
What a difference a year makes!
(refers to 23rd April 2015)

4. Slide 4
Brent Crude oil price down 40% ($) year-on-year

5. Slide 5
Sterling job! Pound weakens by 10% since November

6. Slide 6
Sterling job!

7. Slide 7
Commodities slump not just an oil story…

8. Slide 8
Agriculture & wheat prices down 3% y/y since we
last met but cattle down 20%

9. Slide 9
Food prices fell at a record rate last year

10. Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low
ULSTER FRY DEFLATION
-8.5% y/y

11. Slide 11
Ulster Fry Deflation

12. Slide 12
Ulster Fry Deflation

13. Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low
Health Warning: An Ulster Fry should be eaten in moderation
-8.2%
-16.8%
-2.2%
-4.5%
0%
-0.5%
-5.5%
-16.3%
-0.7%
-7.5%
Source: ONS & UB Calculations

14.  94% of jobs lost in recession recovered
 FT employment grew at a record rate
 Residential property prices up +7% y/y
 Personal insolvencies fell for the 1st time in 8 years
 M&A activity at its highest level since 2007
 New car sales flat
 Estimated economic growth (GVA) 2.0% (in real terms)
2015 NI economic performance

15. 2015 Performance
 Total income from farming (TIFF) -42% y/y (real terms)
 Gross output of NI agriculture -9.4% y/y
 Gross value added (GVA) -26% y/y
 Farm Business Income (FBI) -46% y/y in 2015/16 (estimated)
 Total agricultural labour force +0.2% y/y ( <48,000)
Agri, Agri, Agri…….Ouch, Ouch, Ouch

16. Slide 16
NI’s economic recovery in context

17. Slide 17
Republic of Ireland economic performance: past,
present & future?

27. £1,500
£1,500

28. Conclusion / issues to consider
£1,500
£1,500
National Living Wage
1. Public finances are a mess. Brexit a distraction.
2. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock
3. Short-medium term Brexit a negative for UK (NI hit hardest)
4. Brexit = Game Over for NI’s corporation tax?
5. Referendum II?
6. Post-Brexit – An avalanche of uncertainty?
7. Trade deals – Who? What? When?
8. Political Stability – EU, UK, within UK (e.g. Scotland & NI)

29. Slide 29Slide 29
CONTACT DETAILS
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email: richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter: @UB_Economics

30. Slide 30
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