27 April Daily technical trader


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27 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QE Index snapped its seven-day winning streak and fell marginally around 7 points (-0.05%). However, the index rebounded from its intraday low of 12,825.37 as buyers pushed the price once again above 12,950.0. This clearly indicates that buyers are willing to accumulate at every possible dip. Meanwhile, the index may continue to move higher until it stays above its intermediate support near the 12,940.0 level, where as a dip below this level may test 12,900.0. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove VFQS developed a bearish engulfing candle pattern on Wednesday and moved lower on Thursday, thus confirming this reversal pattern. Moreover, the stock dipped below its intermediate support of QR17.99 indicating a further lower move. We believe the stock may continue to drift down and test QR16.89 as it has little support until then. However, a close above QR17.99 may attract buyers. The RSI is moving lower indicating a likely correction. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index continued to book profits for the second consecutive session and declined marginally by -0.10% to close at 4,275.61. The index momentarily dipped below the support near 4,248.0, but quickly managed to recover majority of its losses as buyers stepped in and offset the weakness. However, the index needs to move above the 4,302.0 level in order to gain further momentum, until then it is likely to consolidate. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove GISS developed a hammer candle pattern on Wednesday indicating the end of the current correction and gained 2.39% on Thursday, thus confirming this bullish pattern. The stock is currently sitting exactly at its immediate resistance of QR90.0. We believe if the stock manages to move above this level it may spark additional buying interest, which may push it further and test QR93.0. However, any failure to move above QR90.0 may result in a pullback toward QR88.43. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Downmove KCBK reversed on Wednesday and continued to drift lower on Thursday, thus confirming its downmove. Moreover, the stock penetrated below its supports of QR23.49 and QR23.23 in a single swoop, which is a negative sign. With the RSI showing a bearish divergence and the MACD closing the signal line from above, it seems the stock may drift down further to test QR22.90. However, a close above QR23.23 may halt its downmove. Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Uptrend MERS gained 4.36% and cleared the resistances of QR183.0 and QR185.0 in a single trading session after consolidating below it over the past few days, tagging an all-time high. This strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and the stock may continue to advance recording new highs. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on the QR187.80 level for any reversal signs as a dip below it may drag the stock to test QR185.0.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,954.93 UP UP 12,892.76 12,800.00 13,000.00 13,100.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,275.61 UP UP 4,247.34 4,200.00 4,301.50 4,330.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 48.65 UP UP 48.50 47.00 51.80 53.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.30 UP UP 69.80 68.40 72.67 73.42 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 67.60 UP UP 67.10 65.70 68.00 69.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 88.50 UP UP 88.00 87.30 90.70 91.80 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.80 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 78.00 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.00 81.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 23.20 UP UP 22.90 22.49 23.23 23.49 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 85.00 UP UP 83.40 81.70 87.80 90.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 188.90 UP UP 185.00 183.00 190.00 195.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 185.00 UP UP 183.00 181.40 186.40 188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 186.00 UP UP 184.00 180.00 188.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 90.00 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 67.10 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.80 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.60 41.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.40 UP UP 24.00 23.33 25.29 25.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 17.96 UP UP 16.89 16.00 17.99 19.29 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.85 UP UP 23.70 22.80 24.00 24.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 101.00 UP UP 100.10 98.30 102.50 104.90