24 April Daily technical trader


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24 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QE Index continued its fabulous rally for the seventh straight session and gained around 22 points (0.17%), scaling yet another fresh all-time high. The index witnessed a gap-down opening and momentarily dipped below the September 2005 highs of 12,892.76, but later recouped its losses in the day to close in the green at 12,961.56. This indicates that buyers are willing to accumulate at every possible dip. Both indicators continue to hold strong. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Breakout DHBK surged 5.95% and breached its resistances of QR65.70 & QR67.10 in a single swoop for the first time since February. The recent price action and spike in volumes indicate that the stock has enough steam to test & surpass QR68.0, targeting the QR69.50 level. However, a retreat below QR67.10 may result in a false breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD is diverging away on the upside. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index snapped its six-day winning streak and fell around 12 points (-0.29%) to close at 4,280.07. The index tagged a fresh new all-time high of 4,317.91, but later reversed on the back of profit- booking as sellers had an upper hand over the buyers. However, the short-term and long-term trend of the index remains bullish. The index has immediate support near 4,248.0. Only a dip below this level may pull the index to test 4,200.0 until then the bulls need not worry. Milaha: Short-Term – Upmove QNNS gained 2.12% and cleared the key resistance of QR100.10, recording a new 52-week high. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise indicating that potential buyers are stepping in. We believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum and march toward QR102.50. However, a decline below QR100.10 may pull the stock back into the congestion zone. Meanwhile, the stock has support for a further higher move based on both momentum indicators. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove CBQK surpassed the important resistances of the ascending triangle at QR69.80 and QR70.42, tagging a new 52-week high. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating the likely continuation of this upmove. We believe the stock has been trending strong and may continue its rally further to test QR72.67 as it has little resistance until then. However, a dip below QR70.42 may halt its upmove. Both indicators look strong for an upmove. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Uptrend QATI continued its strong rally and tagged fresh new all-time highs on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been in uptrend mode & is moving along the ascending trendline and is gaining strength. Meanwhile, with both indicators providing bullish signals the stock’s preferred direction seems to be on the upside. We believe the stock may extend its rally further recording new highs, thus reinforcing our bullish outlook for the stock.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,961.56 UP UP 12,892.76 12,800.00 13,000.00 13,100.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,280.07 UP UP 4,247.34 4,200.00 4,330.00 4,350.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 49.75 UP UP 48.50 47.00 51.80 53.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 70.60 UP UP 70.42 69.80 72.67 73.42 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 67.70 UP UP 67.10 65.70 68.00 69.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 88.40 UP UP 88.00 87.30 90.70 91.80 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 88.00 UP UP 86.10 83.00 88.50 90.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 78.90 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.00 81.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.69 UP UP 23.23 22.90 25.00 26.60 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 86.50 UP UP 83.40 81.70 87.80 90.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.00 UP UP 179.00 175.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 182.00 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 183.00 184.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 185.00 UP UP 184.00 180.00 188.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 87.90 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 66.90 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.00 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.60 41.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.05 UP UP 23.33 23.00 24.25 25.29 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.90 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.20 UP UP 17.99 17.00 19.30 20.50 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.18 UP UP 23.70 22.80 24.80 25.70 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 101.00 UP UP 100.10 98.30 102.50 104.90