Commitment to Fly Net Zero Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector Extended Use of SAFs Beginning 10/2022

1. Commitment to Fly Net Zero
Decarbonization of the
Aviation Sector
Extended Use of SAFs
Beginning 10/2022
by Pedro Baldó

2. Commitment to Fly Net Zero
Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector
Extended Use of SAFs
(Sustainable Aviation Fuels)
Beginning 10/2022

3. Commitment to Fly Net Zero
Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector
Extended Use of SAFs
(Sustainable Aviation Fuels)
Beginning 2022
On the eve of the
41st ICAO Assembly to adopt
a long-term aspirational goal
for international civil aviation

5. News
Podcast: Debunking Maintenance Myths About SAF, May 23rd, 2022
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been a growing part of business
aviation for more than a decade. However, despite numerous industry
efforts to spread understanding, awareness and use of SAF, there remain
a few persistent myths about the fuel. In this episode of NBAA Flight Plan,
three experts debunk these myths.
In First, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Lands At Geneva Airport, Helping Outbound
Flights Cut Carbon Emissions, May 20th, 2022
For the first time in its history, Geneva Airport (GVA) will have
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) available and being used to lower carbon
emissions for outbound flights. The supply comes as business aviation
hosts its European convention in the city from May 23th-25th.
Business Aviation Leaders and Airlines Urge Biden Administration to Clear
Roadblocks Holding Back Sustainable Aviation Fuel's Growth, May 18th, 2022
A coalition of 42 business aviation leaders, major U.S. airlines and other
industry associations is urging the White House to clear regulatory
roadblocks hindering the scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel production.

8. What is Sustainable Aviation Fuel ?
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a low-carbon
synthetic jet fuel that can be used safely in any turbine-
powered aircraft. Derived from sustainable feedstocks
– including cellulosic biomass, wastes and residues,
waste steel mill gases and captured CO₂ – SAF
potentially can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG)
by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel and is
considered pivotal to achieving the aviation industry’s
goal of a 50% net reduction in CO₂ emissions in 2050.
While the availability of SAF at FBOs ( fixed-base
operators) around the world continues to grow,
(specially at Scandinavian countries and NW Europe)

9. additional supply at a competitive price is critical to
achieving industry sustainability goals, with a target
production capacity of 3.00 billion gallons by 2030.
The sustainable aviation fuel market is projected to
grow from USD $ 219 million in 2021 to USD $ 15,716
million by 2030, at a CAGR (Compound Annual
Growth Rate) of 60.8% during the forecast period.
Adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) such as
e-fuels, synthetic fuels, green jet fuels, biojet fuels,
hydrogen fuels is one of the most feasible alternative
solutions to mitigating accelerating CO2 emissions,
reducing high GWP substances, and meeting net zero
emissions target goals by 2050.

10. Sustainable aviation fuels are a key component in
meeting the aviation industry’s commitments to offset
carbon emissions from traffic growth. SAF gives an
impressive reduction of up to 80% in CO2 emissions
over the lifecycle of the fuel compared to fossil jet fuel,
depending on the sustainable feedstock used,
production method, and the supply chain to the
airport. SAF will be an eligible option for aircraft
operators to meet target goals under the Carbon
Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International
Aviation (CORSIA) to which (ICAO) agreed within a pilot
phase from 2021–2023, followed by a first phase from
2024–2026.

11. The biological and non-biological resources such as oil
crops, sugar crops, algae, waste oil, etc., are the raw
materials that play an important role in the entire
production chain of alternative aviation fuels such as
synthetic fuels, e-fuels, and biojet fuels. The demand
for sustainable aviation fuel can come to a standstill
due to the inadequate supply of raw materials required
for its production. Also, limitations of refineries that
play a major role in the proper utilization of these
reserves add to the delay of the overall process of SAF
production. The low availability of fuel also becomes a
hurdle for the blending capacity of the fuel, leading to
less efficiency in its manufacture and wide spread use.

12. Sustainable aviation fuel, when blended with
petroleum-based fuel, is fully fungible drop-in fuels.
These fuels are also known as synthetic fuels,
renewable jet fuels, e-fuels, green fuels, conventional
biojet fuel, and alternative jet fuels depending on the
processes, technological pathways and feedstocks used
in the production. These fuels are not treated
differently than current fuels from petroleum and can
use the airport fuel storage and hydrant systems,
saving money on infrastructure costs. The continuous
efforts to use existing depreciated equipment and
infrastructure or co-processing with other streams can
potentially be an approach to reducing capital costs.

13. A drop-in fuel is deemed to be equivalent to
conventional jet fuel and can be used in current
engines and infrastructure without any modifications.
These requirements are essential for safety, general
usage, and reduction of carbon footprint in the aviation
industry.
The airlines cannot meet their self-imposed targets for
reducing GHG emissions based on engine and flight
improvements alone—they need SAF. Fuel cost is a
significant fraction of operating costs. SAF, even
though made from the waste and raw materials that
are available for very low cost, requires advanced and
expensive technological pathways.

15. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Ecosystem
Prominent companies that provide sustainable aviation
fuel, private and small enterprises, technology
providers, distributors/suppliers/retailers, and end
customers (airlines and airports) are the key
stakeholders in the sustainable aviation fuel market
ecosystem. Investors, funders, academic researchers,
distributors, service providers, and airport and
aerodrome authorities serve as major influencers in
the sustainable aviation fuel market.
The production of biojet fuel is expected to scale up
rapidly in the coming decade due to rapid
developments in technology of alternative jet fuel.

16. The 30% to 50% segment is expected to grow at the
highest CAGR during the forecast period.
Based on biofuel blending capacity, the sustainable
aviation fuel is segmented into below 30%, 30% to
50%, and above 50%. The 30% to 50% segment of the
sustainable aviation fuel market is expected to grow at
the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
The moderate blend capacity, drop-in facility in existing
fuel systems, supply logistics infrastructure, and
aircraft fleet allow to minimize the overall cost and
cater to the volume demands from commercial and
military aviation.

18. Key Market Players
Major players operating in the renewable jet fuel
market include: Neste (Finland), Fulcrum , ExxonMobil,
BioEnergy (US), LanzaTech (US), World Energy (US),
TotalEnergy (US), BP, among others. These key players
offer various products and services such as biofuel,
synthetic fuel, efuels, green fuel, and hydrogen fuel, in
order to curb the GHG emissions from the aviation and
other industrial sectors such as automotive, marine,
chemical etc. The startup companies in the sustainable
aviation fuel market include Preem (Sweden), OMV
(Austria), Atmosfair (Germany), Wastefuel (US),
Prometheus Fuels (US) Red Rocks Biofuel (US),
Northwest Advanced Biofuels (Austria).

21. How Can Global Aviation Reach Net-Zero CO2
Emissions Target By 2050 ?
In October 2021, the Global Civil Aviation Industry
became one of the first sectors committed to
achieving zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In line with the
Paris Agreement 1.5o
stretch target. This was an
increase in ambition over an earlier long term goal
target. The commitment is backed by all the major
players in the aviation industry, including airlines,
suppliers, airport authorities, management providers
& major OEM manufacturers across the supply chain.

22. The goal will depend on FTOM:
a. a transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century,
b. research development and deployment of
evolutionary and revolutionary airframe and
propulsion systems
c. continued improvements in operational efficiency,
d. investments in high-quality offsets and the use of
carbon removal opportunities to address residual
CO2 emissions by 2050.
Although Net Zero emissions is an ambitious
challenge, nevertheless it can be done.

23. When planning a net zero pathway, it is important to
see where you´ve come from and where you are
headed to. Aviation has always prioritized
improvements in efficiency. It´s almost a business as
usual motto. Looking to the past, a flight that you take
today would produce less than half the CO2 emissions
that same flight would have produced in 1990. These
improvements mean that we are already generating
today approximately 11 M tonnes/yr less than would
have been expected, had some of these improvements
not taken place over all these years. Nevertheless,
despite all of these expected measures, our global CO2
production will reach 2,000 M tonnes by 2050.

24. Development of the Analysis
Over a period of three years, a panel of seventy experts
from across the industry split the task into five working
groups:
a. Traffic Forecasting
b. Technology Developments
c. Operations and Infrastructure
d. Sustainable Aviation Fuel
e. Offsetting (market-based measures)
These generated many possible outcomes, but the
Waypoint 2050 report only presents three final
possible most likely scenarios.

25. These scenarios show that, based on which levers you
pull, it can be achieved primarily through advances in
technology.
 Scenario 1 – Pushing technology and operations
 Scenario 2 – Aggressive sustainable aviation fuel
development
 Scenario 3 – Aspirational and Aggressive
technology perspective
Scenario 3 considers the possibilities if we would be
able to rapidly deploy radical technology options, like
hydrogen technology and electric aircraft,

26. Scenario 2 shows a future where the technologies
don´t move beyond evolutionary improvements and
conventional models, and most of the emissions
reductions must be achieved through the development
of SAFs (without these technological breakthroughs
having come about completely),
And Scenario 1 is a split between Scenario 3 and
Scenario 2.

27. Each of those scenarios
uses a small amount of
micro-based measures to
deal with residual
emissions left in 2050.
Even if some technologies
don´t scale rapidly, it is
important to ensure Net
Zero is possible anyway.
Will aviation need to rely on offsets to meet its goals ??
At the moment, even though efficiency is improving all the
time, the only way to significantly deal with CO2 emissions,
is to offset that travel.

28. Aviation is in fact the only sector in the world to have a
global market- base measure to deal with the growth
of CO2 emissions in the near term. And that´s the
CORSIA agreement, reached through the UN
specialized agency, ICAO. This is a stop gap short term
measure, while new technologies and SAFs scale up.
But the time we get to 2050, we are going to need to
deal with the CO2 emissions that we have not been
able to cut off in the sector, and we are going to need
to turn to natural climate solutions and CO2 removal
technologies (i.e. carbon capture), which will be a key
part of world response to climate change.

29. Propulsion Alternatives
When will passengers fly on hydrogen or electric
planes??
We can expect to see some form of electric propulsion,
either from batteries or fuel cells in the smallest of
aircraft (9-19 seat category), between 2025-2030.
A few years later these options may be available in the
larger model aircraft in the regional category but there
are some significant challenges to overcome both in
the technology of the aircraft and the engines
themselves, as well as in the distribution and
production of green H2. Potentially, the hydrogen

30. option might be available in the short haul market.
The majority of CO2 emissions come from medium and
long haul flights, which account for 75% CO2 and which
will rely on sustainable aviation fuels for decades to
come. It is estimated that emissions from long haul flights
occur massively above 3,000 ft and below 51,000 ft. These
will need to be addressed regarding NOx emissions and
the production of N2O and nitrous oxide N2O4, responsible
for smog formation and, in the presence of VOC´s
(volatile organic compounds), O3 , ozone, not always
environmentally friendly, as it can form HNO3, which
generates NO, and in the presence of O2 and sunlight in
the lower troposphere produces even more NO2

32. Today´s SAF comes
mainly from waste
oils and lipids, and
over the next years,
other waste sources
will start coming on-
stream; some use of
cover crops can
start being seen.
These are grown in
rotation with food
crops and help to
regenerate the soil in off years. Eventually, SAFs made
literally from low carbon electricity will become viable, and
take more of an important role as the market matures.

33. The following graph shows how the different pathways will
evolve over the course of the next 30 years. Today, we are
already starting to fly on SAF, and small as it may be, it is a
solution that is proven to work, reduces CO2 emissions by
80 % compared to other fossil fuels, and will improve
potentially 100 % carbon reduction.

34. It does not require new aircraft or changes to engines, and
its scalable. The biggest challenge today is cost.
Types of SAFs in the
Market Today.
The most common type of
sustainable aviation fuel
commercially available
today is that made directly
from methanol. N-Octane
carbon based fuel is also
manufactured, though not in such a large scale at present.
ExxonMobil, for example, and Neste, produce CH3=OH, but
other chemical companies make SAF from other biofeeds.

35.  The bottom line is that the thermophysical properties of
this synthetic fuel, whether they be SAFs or electrofuel,
have to be very similar to the current Jet A1 Fuel (premium)
(kerosene), the engines normally burn. This is because the
engines burning biomass fuel are not required to be any
different mechanically from those burning carbon based
SAFs, so the heat of combustion, flammability, boiling
point, coefficient of heat transfer and net heat rate, in
(Btu/kWhr) have to be very close to the fuel being
¨cloned¨. Other types of aviation fuels existent on the
market are: kerosene-gasoline mixture (Jet B), aviation
gasoline (avgas)and biokerosene, not very different from
each other, so the electrofuel, biomass fuel or superfuel
cannot be that much off the physical properties of these.

36. Will flying cost more in the future ??
This is a challenging question to answer, because there are
so many variables that go into the price of an air ticket.
Efficiency improvements have resulted in significant
reductions in the cost of travel and connectivity over the
last decades.
SAF does cost more than fossil fuel today, up to 2 to 4
times as much, and that could come down as the
technologies mature. If you add in the cost of power-to-x
carbon fuels, which is expected to increase, the cost of
SAF will fall to within the spread of the Jet A1 fuel prices,
that the industry has already experienced over the last 20
years.

38. Aside from the SAF question, there may also be some cost
differentials with radical new technologies like hydrogen
and electricity, but this may also be offset somewhat with
efficiency gains.
There are 14 new supplying facilities opening in the next 3
to 4 years, and a number of additional projects producing
SAF before 2030.
In fact, with commitments from airlines for over US $ 14
billion in off-take agreements, we can expect that over 6.5
% of aviation fuel in 2030 around the world could be SAF.
In every Waypoint 2050 scenario, we´re going to need
substantial quantities of SAF. Up to 445 million tonnes
(555 billion litres) / annum by 2050.

39. We know where this will come from, and what it will take
to make it happen, but can it happen fast enough ?
But give past experience with solar and wind sectors, and
adding the urgency of the climate GHG acceleration
challenge, this is absolutely doable, with most of the action
needed in the 2030-2050 period.
How much electricity will aviation need in 2050 ??
Aviation will need low carbon electricity for multiple uses
during the next decade.
- Direct use in aircraft (likely 9-19 seaters)
- To make green hydrogen for direct use in some aircraft
- As part of the power-to-liquid SAF generation

40. In all, it is believed this could require between 8 - 18 % of
the currently anticipated low-carbon electricity production,
across the world in 2050.

41. How much electricity will aviation need in 2050 (cntd)?
It is likely that aviation demand will increase overall supply
of low-carbon generated electricity. Scenario 2 yields the
highest demand at 8,540 TWhr/yr during 2030-2050 period

42. Why should governments support aviation energy
transition ?
more than 90 % of oil (and natural gas) today.
In order to meet these goals, 5,000 –
7,000 new facilities may be needed
by 2050. There is some consolidation
that could take place on this front,
this final number being a minimum.
Every country on Earth could
become an energy provider, a more
de-centralized system than the
current 22 countries which produce

43. Since planes fly everywhere, local opportunities could
supply local airports.
The projected investment is estimated to be between US $
1.00 – 1.45 trillion over the next 30 years. When you
annualize this figure, its around 6% of annual fossil and gas
investment today.
The new energy industry will create and sustain up to 14
million jobs, with 90% of these across the supply chain for
SAF production. These in addition to the 88 million jobs the
airline industry already is credited for (direct and indirect
employment).

44. What support does the industry need in order to make
Net-Zero a reality ?
- primarily, a staunch
endorsement from
governments,
- the right policy
environment, focused
on long-term thinking,
- smart regulations
working with the
industry ,

45. - the need for governments to agree to a long-term
climate goal for aviation, at the 41st
ICAO Assembly in
October 2022,
- energy industry needs to get serious about transition
away from fossil fuels and work together with the
aviation industry , delivering significant quantities of
SAF,
- research institutions and customers can play a
supportive role,
- radical technologies providing advances in SAF
manufacturing and distribution,
- customers can offset their travel through high quality
UN backed projects,

46. - indeed, more and more airlines can work with big
corporates to allow them to help in the scale up for
SAF,
- The FAA in the US and aviation sector in general are
committed to pursuing development of secure a
global MBM (Marked-Based Measure) for
international aviation through ICAO. The global MBM
is considered gap filler in the basket of measures that
includes improvements in technology, operations and
sustainable alternative fuels (SAFs) to achieve carbon
neutrality for the world-wide aviation industry.

47. CONCLUSIONS
SAF will not have to wait until 2050. It is already being
implemented with over 365,000 commercial flights,
using a small proportion of this fuel. More production is
coming on stream rapidly now, with 14 new plants in
the next few years.
Industry´s long-term goal of Net Zero CO2 from aviation
globally by 2050 is very challenging, but achievable.
We will need a significant scale up continuous supply, of
sustainable aviation fuel – up to 445 tonnes / year by
2050.
At least a SAF investment of 6% annual oil & gas CAPEX.

48. New technology, such as electric and hydrogen powered
aircraft need accelerated research and development
(R & D). Prototypes of this technology could enter
service around 2035, particularly on short haul routes.
Operations and infrastructure efficiencies are vital for
early action to maintain capacity efficiency in the future.
Offsetting is important in the short-term, but Net Zero
may still be reliant upon some carbon removal options.
The future will tell how changes in industry structure,
overall aviation activity, and new SAF technologies
influence airline efficiency.

49. As SAF usage consolidates, for example through the full
integration of Virgin America’s operations by Alaska, we
may expect corresponding changes in the relative fuel
efficiency of the remaining carriers, and lower if not
negligible CO2 emissions.
Likewise, the expanded market share of more efficient
single-aisle aircraft types, like the Airbus A320 neo,
Boeing 737 MAX, and the Airbus A220 (formerly the
Bombardier CSeries CR 100/200/300) regional jets,
should improve the fuel efficiency per passenger seat
(RPMs /gallon) of more U.S. and international carriers.

50. According to WBD (World Bank Data) , the world has seen
a drammatic decrease in fossil fuel energy consumption
since 1970, dropping from a staggering 94,548
MMBBLS/YR (15,031 x 10 ˄ 12 litres/yr) or 3.61 giga
tonnes of CO2/ yr to 78,726 MMBBLS/YR (12,516 x 10 ˄
12 litres/yr) or 3.00 giga tonnes of CO2/yr in 1989, and
steadily rising again. Commercial aircraft emitted about
900 million tonnes (0.009 billion tonnes, or 0.009
gigatons(m)) of CO2. Of these emissions, 30% correspond
to aviation activities in the US.
Hopefully these trends can totally be eradicated and the
expected cumulative 2,000 M tonnes by 2050 begin to be
tackled then (this will represent around 30% of the total
CO2 present in the atmosphere, land and sea).

51. As the global community emerges from the pandemic and
the aviation sector rebounds from the worst crisis in its
history, the aviation sector builds on the success of
previous sustainability efforts to push towards the third
era of air transport: net-zero carbon global connectivity.
Scientific consensus shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5 o
C
goal would greatly reduce the severity of climate change
damage. It is imperative that all sections of society and
business set course to support achievement of this goal.
The collective air transport sector raises its ambition with
a new long-term climate commitment.

52. Recognizing the importance of reducing aviation
emissions, the U.S. government set a goal of capping
CO2 emissions from U.S. commercial carriers at 2005
levels from 2020 (FAA, 2015). In support of this goal,
the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
implemented a voluntary system to collect CO2
emissions data from airlines (EASA, FAA). This data will
be used to support the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction
Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, starting
in 2021. To achieve the goal of decarbonisation of air
transport, the strategies underlined by Waypoint 2050
can be summarized as follows:

53. Increasing use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and a
transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century as
part of a wider aviation energy shift including low-
carbon electricity and green hydrogen.
Research, development and deployment of
evolutionary and revolutionary airframe and
propulsion systems, including the introduction of
electric and/or hydrogen powered aircraft.
Continued improvements in efficiency of operations
and infrastructure across the system, including at
airports and air navigation service providers.
Investment in high-quality carbon offsets in the near-
term and carbon removals opportunities to address

54. residual CO2 emissions in the longer-term.
In this regard, the industry reaffirms its full support for
the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation (CORSIA) as an effective
transitional measure to stabilize net emissions from
international aviation.
A vast range of activities are being undertaken to
reduce aviation CO2 emissions. Unwavering
commitment to respond to the challenge of climate
change has not receeded despite the crisis the world
has recently faced with the pandemic.

55. To achieve net-zero, the sector will require a
supportive policy framework from governments
focused on innovation rather than cost-inefficient
instruments such as uncoordinated taxes or restrictive
measures, as well as a robust and full commitment
from the energy industry and other stakeholders. As
support at the global level is critical, ICAO member
states are urged to support adoption of a long-term
aspirational climate goal at the 41st ICAO Assembly in
2022.

56. Many long-term solutions require an acceleration of
activity in the next decade, particularly the deployment
of SAF. Some, such as continued efficiency gains,
improvements in air traffic management and the
implementation of CORSIA, can provide early climate
action whilst longer-term measures are developed.
A unflailing commitment to ensuring that aviation in
2050 will be able to meet the needs of over 10 billion
passengers, connecting the world safely, securely and
importantly, sustainably, is one very important goal of
that ICAO Assembly.

57. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which
is obligated to set an aircraft greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) standard under the Clean Air Act, is expected to
propose a rule that, at a minimum, conforms with
ICAO’s recommended standard (U.S. EPA, 2016) in the
fall of 2022 (Office of Management and Budget).
Individuals, companies and organizations are
increasingly interested in taking action to reduce the
carbon footprint of their air travel. Ideally, airlines
would provide fuel efficiency data directly to
consumers to help them choose more fuel-efficient
flights, and voluntarily choose their preferred fuel.