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Mercados internacionais para reduções de emissões de carbono: oportunidades e desafios

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Apresentação intitulada "Mercados internacionais para reduções de emissões de carbono: oportunidades e desafios", proferida em inglês por Ruben Lubowski: Economista-Chefe de Recursos Naturais, EDF, no Seminário Internacional Oportunidades de Negócios para uma Economia Rural Sustentável:A Contribuição das Florestas e da Agricultura, realizado nos dias 14 e 15 de maio de 2019.

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Mercados internacionais para reduções de emissões de carbono: oportunidades e desafios

  1. 1. International Markets for Carbon Emissions Reductions: Opportunities and Challenges Ruben Lubowski, Chief Natural Resource Economist International Seminar: Business Opportunities for a Sustainable Rural Economy: Contribution of Forests and Agriculture IPEA, Brasilia May 14, 2019
  2. 2. Source: EDF based on Enerdata/POLES, IIASA, FAO The Ambition Gap: Paris Agreement Pledges in Perspective Business-as-usual (BAU) global emissions Global current Paris pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions; NDCs) Global ambition consistent with 2° C degrees Global intermediate ambition scenario
  3. 3. Total emissions reductions from 2020-2035 in billion tonnes CO2e Source: EDF Global carbon markets can enable almost double the emissions reductions at the same total cost as current policies
  4. 4. Total emissions reductions from 2020-2035 in billion tonnes CO2e Source: EDF Global carbon markets can enable almost double the emissions reductions at the same total cost as current policies
  5. 5. Total emissions reductions from 2020-2035 in billion tonnes CO2e Source: EDF Global carbon markets can enable almost double the emissions reductions at the same total cost as current policies
  6. 6. Source: State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2018, World Bank Carbon pricing covers about 19% of world emissions
  7. 7. Marshall Islands New Zealand NDC Submitted Singapore NDC includes the use of International markets San Marino Trinidad and Tobago Comoros Grenada Country will consider using markets Seychelles Kiribati Mauritius Maldives Barbados Tuvalu Cape Verde Dominica Sao Tome and Principe Solomon Island Monaco Samoa NDC Not Submitted Antigua and Barbuda Fiji Nauru Cook Islands St Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Micronesia Vanuatu Palau Source: IETA/EDF “Carbon Pricing: The Paris Agreement’s Key Ingredient,” April 2016 More than 90 countries included an explicit mention of markets in their Paris Pledges (Nationally Determined Contributions; NDCs).
  8. 8. Carbon Pricing Systems Including Domestic Forestry and/or Land Use Source: Forest Trends. 2017.
  9. 9. 9 Key regulated markets are considering accepting protocols for international emissions reduction credits from forest carbon: Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+)
  10. 10. Declining cap California cap-and-trade program
  11. 11. Source: CORSIA/ICAO, adapted by EDF International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): Market-based measure (CORSIA)
  12. 12. CORSIA: Demand for biofuels and offsets ~2.5-3 BILLION tCO2 (2021-2035) ➢ Estimated $6-8 billion / year potential offset market, depending on penetration of biofuels Source: CORSIA/ICAO, adapted by EDF International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): Market-based measure (CORSIA)
  13. 13. CORSIA: Demand for biofuels and offsets ~2.5-3 BILLION tCO2 (2021-2035) ➢ Estimated $6-8 billion / year potential offset market, depending on penetration of biofuels Source: CORSIA/ICAO, adapted by EDF International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): Market-based measure (CORSIA)
  14. 14. Potential growth of international forest carbon market Source: EDF estimates ~130-200 MtCO2/year emissions reductions, 2021-2035 ~8 MtCO2/year emissions reductions, 2020 ~600-2,000 MtCO2/year emissions reductions, 2025 $300 million, 2019-2022
  15. 15. https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/CORSIA%20Carbon%20Markets%20Scenarios_0.pdf Estimated Carbon Prices Consistent with Paris Agreement Modelled carbon price from gradually evolving global market assuming the implementation of the Paris Agreement Source: EDF analysis. Piris-Cabezas et al. 2018
  16. 16. A o Surplus of 6,981 million tons beyond the multiyear budget or cap. Brazil: Potential surplus cost-effective reductions beyond NDC given global market price scenario 16 Source: EDF; Piris-Cabezas et al. 2018
  17. 17. Summary: Revenues and costs for Brazil of implementing NDC REVENUESCOSTS • The international price where Brazil “breaks even” on its NDC is estimated at $6.5 in 2016 rising to $12.9 in 2030, below projected values and existing market prices. • Source: EDF; Piris-Cabezas, Lubowski et al. 2018)
  18. 18. Key Findings • Global use of carbon markets could allow nearly double climate ambition relative to current NDCs at the same total cost. – Significant increases in ambition could still be achieved even with limited international emission trading. • Reducing deforestation is a key driver (~1/2) of greater ambition. • Brazil has comparative advantage in emissions reductions from a global perspective, with significant potential to overachieve NDC. – If Brazil could valorize additional economy-wide reductions beyond NDC at forecasted carbon prices, this could cover or even exceed program costs. • Priority to ensure the development of well-designed, high- integrity international market approaches.
  19. 19. Thank you! Ruben Lubowski rlubowski@edf.org
  20. 20. CORSIA under International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) • 1996: UNFCCC tries to figure out how to tackle “international bunkers” (ships & aircraft) • 1997: Kyoto Protocol gives lead to ICAO, IMO • 2016: ICAO Assembly adopts the “Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation” (CORSIA) – help international aviation “carbon neutral growth from 2020” (limit net emissions to 2020 levels) – Dates: January 1, 2021-December 31, 2035 – Airlines to purchase and cancel emissions units that meet Emissions Units Criteria (EUC)
  21. 21. Modelled Carbon Prices under Alternative Scenarios Source: Piris-Cabezas, Lubowski, Leslie 2018
  22. 22. Carbon Pricing of the Americas (CPA) initiative • Launched in Paris, December 2017 • Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile and Mexico • Governors of California, Washington and the Premiers of Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec • Implement carbon pricing as a central economic and environmental policy instrument for ambitious climate change action. – Create platform for cooperation – Strengthen MRV and explore developing common standards – Share best practices, build capacities, engage stakeholders

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