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Amund Bråthen - konsumentanalytiker Norges sjømatråd - Miniseminar Laks - Julesalget i 2011, hva er trenden?

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Vår konsumentanalytiker Amund Bråthen om julesalget og trendene i 2011 på Miniseminar Laks i Oslo på Thon Hotell Vika Atrium 03. februar 2012.

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Amund Bråthen - konsumentanalytiker Norges sjømatråd - Miniseminar Laks - Julesalget i 2011, hva er trenden?

  1. 1. CHRISTMAS SALES OF 2011WHAT IS THE TREND?Amund Bråthen,Konsument analytikerNorges SjømatrådMiniseminar Oslo, 3. februar 2011ab@seafood.no
  2. 2. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON• The numbers are representative what the households are buying for their homeconsumption.• The numbers does not include HoReCa.• The data is paneldata collected through Europanel.
  3. 3. STRONG INCREASE OF SALMON BOUGHT FOR HOMECONSUMPTION IN SPAIN – DECREASE IN THE OTHER COUNTRIES Volume (Product weight) 70000 -6,2% Total volume of Salmon products (ton productweight) 60000 +21% 50000 -3,3% -2,3% 40000 2010 2011 30000 20000 10000 0 Spain France UK GermanyVolume developmentPeriod: jan – dec 2010 and 2011Product: All type of Salmon productsSource: Europanel/NSC
  4. 4. SMALL CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE SHARE OF THE DIFFERENT PRODUCTS IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. Spain UK 12% 13% 100 % 15% 15% 100 % 24% 24% 25% 25% 90 % 90 % 80 % 12% 11% 80 % 70 % 10% 70 % 23% 22% 11% 16% 15% 60 % 60 % 50 % Smoked 50 % Smoked 77% 75% 40 % 40 % 66% 64% Frozen 63% 61% 60% 60% 30 % 30 % Frozen 20 % Fresh 20 % Fresh 10 % 10 % 0% 0% 2010 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 Value: 476 243 000 Eur Value: 567 105 000 GBP Volume Product . Value Volume:47 329 Tons Volume Product weight . Value Volume:42 139 Tons weight France Germany100 % 3% 3% 2% 2% 100 % 3% 3% 2% 2%90 % 90 % 40% 80 % 41%80 % 50% 51% 55% 57% 58% 59%70 % 70 %60 % Canned 60 % Canned50 % 18% Smoked 50 % Smoked 17%40 % 40 % 14% 14% Frozen Frozen30 % 30 % 37% 35% Fresh 28% 28% Fresh 39% 39%20 % 20 % 29% 27%10 % 10 % 10% 11% 11% 11% 0% 0% 2011 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 Value: 995 442 000 Euro Value: 567 105 000 Euro Volume Product . Value Volume:55 118 Tons Volume Product weight . Value Volume:42 139 Tons weight
  5. 5. DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF SALMON - YEARLYWHOLE YEAR Fresh Frozen Smoked 2011/2010 Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price France -4,6 % -2,3 % -13,6 % 11,7 % -4,2 % 6,5 % Germany 4,2 % 2,2 % -5,9 % 10,3 % -1,1 % 2,7 % UK -1,6 % 1,5 % -8,9 % 1,5 % -1,4 % 4,0 % Spain 24,3% -0,2% 11,0% -1,0% 11,0% 3,2%Volume and price developmentPeriod: jan – dec 2010 and 2011Product: All type of Salmon productsSource: Europanel/NSC
  6. 6. DEVELOPMENT IN HOMECONSUMPTION OF SALMON – Q4 Q4 11/10 Fresh Frozen Smoked Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price France 21,9 % -17,0 % -12,7 % 10,6 % - 9,2 % 6,4 % Germany 21,6 % -10,3 % -8,2 % 11,8 % 0,7 % -4,0 % UK 17,4 % -11,6 % -19,6 % 0,2 % 7,5 % -3,3 % Spain 43,3% -11.8% 18,4% 9,0 % 8,0% 1,2 %Volume and price developmentPeriod: jan – dec 2010 and 2011Product: All type of Salmon productsSource: Europanel/NSC
  7. 7. CONSUMERS REACTS POSITIVELY ON PRICE DECREASES AROUND CHRISTMAS. Fresh Frozen SmokedP13/ DECEMBER Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price France 23,8 % -16,3 % -10,4 % 9,9 % -6,0 % 5,2 % Germany 29,6 % -11,0 % -15,4 % 12,8 % -3,0 % -5,9 % UK 21,9 % -2,5 % -12,5 % 2,7 % 2,5 % 5,3 % Spain 56,7% -11,3% 4,9% 18,5% 4,3% 2,0% Volume and price development Period: dec 2010 and 2011 Product: All type of Salmon products Source: Europanel/NSC
  8. 8. SALMONS VOLUM SHARE OF FRESH SEAFOOD IN Q4 2010 AND Q4 201130,0 % 24,8 %25,0 % 20,8 %20,0 %15,0 % 14,6 % 2010 2011 11,8 % 10,9 % 10,2 %10,0 % 8,7 % 8,9 % 5,0 % 0,0 % Frankrike UK Spain GermanyVolume and price developmentPeriod: oct – dec 2010 and 2011Product: Fresh Salmon compared with fresh seafoodSource: Europanel/NSC
  9. 9. Q4 AVG PRICES FOR FRESH FISH IN FRANCE 2010 2011 Sole 21,58 Tuna 21,34 Angler 19,50 Angler 21,04 Tuna 17,98 Sole 19,31 Cod 15,54 Cod 16,73 Grenadier 15,36 Grenadier 16,32 Haddock 14,64 Pollack 15,85 Sea Bass 14,59 Sea Bass 15,57 Pollack 13,93 Red Mullet 15,19 Red Mullet 13,38 Haddock 14,58Grand Total 12,85 Plaice 14,47 Whiting 12,22 Whiting 13,57 Other fish 12,07 Ray 13,11 Salmon 11,97 Ling 13,10 Ray Dab 12,90 11,95 Ling Grand Total 12,74 11,42 Perch 12,33Saumonette 11,29 Seabream 12,05 Dab 11,09 Other fish 12,03 Perch 10,37 Trout 10,93 Coalfish 10,36 Coalfish 10,78 Seabream 10,03 Salmon 10,02 Plaice 10,02 Merlu 9,70 Trout 9,96 Saumonette 9,67 Merlu 8,88 Pangas 8,34 Pangas 7,29 Maquerel 8,27 Maquerel 6,63 Sardines 4,94 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00Price for fresh fishPeriod: oct – dec 2010 and 2011Product: Fresh fishCountry: FranceSource: Europanel/NSC
  10. 10. VALUE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH FISH Q4 60,0 Volume development Haddock 40,0 Sole Tuna Salmon 20,0 Coalfish Dab Hake Trout Cod Mackerel 0,0 -40,00 -30,00 -20,00 -10,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 Cod-Fish Red Mullet Whiting Perch Price development Ray -20,0 Seabream Angler Pangas Sea bass -40,0 LingVolume and price development -60,0Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011Product: Fresh fish products The size of the cirkle indicates theCountry: France species value related marketshares inSource: Europanel/NSC Q4 2011
  11. 11. MARKET SHARE OF FRESH SALMON SOLD IN DIFFERENT PRICE INTERVALS.100 %90 %80 %70 %60 % 16+50 % 14-15,99 12-13,9940 % 10-11,99 7-9,9930 %20 %10 % 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 2011 Price for fresh fish Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011 Product: Fresh fish Country: France Source: Europanel/NSC
  12. 12. CONSUMERS ARE COMMING BACK AND THEY ARE BUYING MORE EACH TIME THEY BUYS. France – fresh sliced salmon 130 Index (period x / period xayer ago) 120 110 100 90 80 Penetration Trip size 70 Frequency 60 Price 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2009 2010 2011• The households has reacted to the decreased price in Q4 with increase in penetration, frequency and trip size.• Trip size for December 2011 is the highest we have measured.• The price for December 2011 is the fourth lowest price measured in a single period since p01 2006.Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011Product: fresh salmon slicesCountry: FranceSource: Europanel/NSC
  13. 13. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE END OF THE YEAR BUT STILL A POTENTIAL. France – Smoked Salmon 130 Index (period x / period xayer ago) 125 120 115 110 Penetrasjon 105 Trip size 100 Frekvens 95 Pris 90 85 80 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2008 2009 2010 2011• The households has reacted to the increased price in Q4 with decreased penetration, frequency and trip size.• Positive developments in p13 for Penetration and Frequency but there is still a potential to before we are back to “old levels”.• Prices are still above the prices for the same period a year ago.Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011Product: Smoked salmonCountry: FranceSource: Europanel/NSC
  14. 14. WHAT HAS HAPPEND?• 74,3% (-0,9 percent points) of all French households has bought smoked salmon last year.• 37,7% (-1,2 percent points) of all French households has bought fresh salmon last year. – Q4 • Positive development on all of the variables – penetration, trip size and frequency. Strongest positive development for Penetration and trip size. • Positive development in the groups of lower income, households age 35+ and households less than 5 persons.• Supermarkets have strengthen their position during 2011 – specialized stores have weakened.• Fresh salmon has only three times before been below the p13 2011 price. – 79% of fresh salmon was sold for 11,99 euro or less in Q4 2011. In Q3 2011 it was only 12% of the volume sold for less than 11,99 Euro.
  15. 15. WHAT HAS HAPPEND?• Salmon is outperforming seafood and FMCG.• Salmon is increasing in all chain formats but especially in Supermarkets.• Salmon has been one of the most attractive seafood species to attract new households in 2011.• 70,4% of the Spanish households are buying salmon today. – Aproximately 530 000 new Households from 2010 to 2011 and 1 300 000 new households from 2009 to 2010.• The increased salmon sales are especially a consequence of increased numbers of new households and an increased purchase frequency. – Increased comsumption among family households in 1. half of 2011 and seniors for 2. half of 2011. – Increased consumption also among the once in the lower economic classes.
  16. 16. SUMMARY1. Strong price decrease together with a volume increase for fresh salmon in Q4 and especially in December.2. Increased price/ decreased volume trends for Frozen products in Q4 and3. Some indications for price decrease/ volume increase are seen for smoked Salmon.4. Spain has had an extraordinary year in terms of sales of salmon.5. Increased penetration but also trip size in Q4

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