Vår konsumentanalytiker Amund Bråthen om julesalget og trendene i 2011 på Miniseminar Laks i Oslo på Thon Hotell Vika Atrium 03. februar 2012.

1. CHRISTMAS SALES OF 2011
WHAT IS THE TREND?
Amund Bråthen,
Konsument analytiker
Norges Sjømatråd
Miniseminar Oslo, 3. februar 2011
ab@seafood.no

2. DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEMAND FOR SALMON
• The numbers are representative
what the households are buying for
their homeconsumption.
• The numbers does not include
HoReCa.
• The data is paneldata collected
through Europanel.

4. STRONG INCREASE OF SALMON BOUGHT FOR HOMECONSUMPTION
IN SPAIN – DECREASE IN THE OTHER COUNTRIES
Volume (Product weight)
70000 -6,2%
Total volume of Salmon products (ton productweight)
60000
+21%
50000 -3,3%
-2,3%
40000
2010
2011
30000
20000
10000
0
Spain France UK Germany
Volume development
Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: All type of Salmon products
Source: Europanel/NSC

5. SMALL CHANGES IN THE RELATIVE SHARE OF THE DIFFERENT
PRODUCTS IN THE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.
Spain UK
12%
13%
100 %
15%
15%
100 %
24%
24%
25%
25%
90 % 90 %
80 % 12% 11% 80 %
70 % 10% 70 % 23% 22%
11% 16% 15%
60 % 60 %
50 % Smoked 50 %
Smoked
77%
75%
40 % 40 %
66%
64%
Frozen
63%
61%
60%
60%
30 % 30 % Frozen
20 % Fresh
20 % Fresh
10 % 10 %
0% 0%
2010 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011
2010 2011 2010 2011
Value: 476 243 000 Eur Value: 567 105 000 GBP
Volume Product . Value Volume:47 329 Tons Volume Product weight . Value Volume:42 139 Tons
weight
France Germany
100 % 3% 3% 2% 2% 100 % 3% 3% 2% 2%
90 % 90 %
40%
80 %
41%
80 %
50%
51%
55%
57%
58%
59%
70 % 70 %
60 % Canned 60 % Canned
50 % 18% Smoked 50 % Smoked
17%
40 % 40 %
14% 14% Frozen Frozen
30 % 30 % 37% 35%
Fresh 28% 28% Fresh
39%
39%
20 % 20 %
29%
27%
10 % 10 %
10% 11% 11% 11%
0% 0%
2011 2011
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Value: 995 442 000 Euro Value: 567 105 000 Euro
Volume Product . Value Volume:55 118 Tons Volume Product weight . Value Volume:42 139 Tons
weight

6. DEVELOPMENT IN HOME CONSUMPTION OF
SALMON - YEARLY
WHOLE YEAR
Fresh Frozen Smoked
2011/2010
Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price
France -4,6 % -2,3 % -13,6 % 11,7 % -4,2 % 6,5 %
Germany 4,2 % 2,2 % -5,9 % 10,3 % -1,1 % 2,7 %
UK -1,6 % 1,5 % -8,9 % 1,5 % -1,4 % 4,0 %
Spain 24,3% -0,2% 11,0% -1,0% 11,0% 3,2%
Volume and price development
Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: All type of Salmon products
Source: Europanel/NSC

7. DEVELOPMENT IN HOMECONSUMPTION OF SALMON
– Q4
Q4 11/10
Fresh Frozen Smoked
Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price
France 21,9 % -17,0 % -12,7 % 10,6 % - 9,2 % 6,4 %
Germany 21,6 % -10,3 % -8,2 % 11,8 % 0,7 % -4,0 %
UK 17,4 % -11,6 % -19,6 % 0,2 % 7,5 % -3,3 %
Spain 43,3% -11.8% 18,4% 9,0 % 8,0% 1,2 %
Volume and price development
Period: jan – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: All type of Salmon products
Source: Europanel/NSC

8. CONSUMERS REACTS POSITIVELY ON PRICE
DECREASES AROUND CHRISTMAS.
Fresh Frozen Smoked
P13/ DECEMBER
Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price
France 23,8 % -16,3 % -10,4 % 9,9 % -6,0 % 5,2 %
Germany 29,6 % -11,0 % -15,4 % 12,8 % -3,0 % -5,9 %
UK 21,9 % -2,5 % -12,5 % 2,7 % 2,5 % 5,3 %
Spain 56,7% -11,3% 4,9% 18,5% 4,3% 2,0%
Volume and price development
Period: dec 2010 and 2011
Product: All type of Salmon products
Source: Europanel/NSC

9. SALMONS VOLUM SHARE OF FRESH SEAFOOD IN
Q4 2010 AND Q4 2011
30,0 %
24,8 %
25,0 %
20,8 %
20,0 %
15,0 % 14,6 % 2010
2011
11,8 %
10,9 %
10,2 %
10,0 % 8,7 % 8,9 %
5,0 %
0,0 %
Frankrike UK Spain Germany
Volume and price development
Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: Fresh Salmon compared with fresh seafood
Source: Europanel/NSC

10. Q4 AVG PRICES FOR FRESH FISH IN FRANCE
2010 2011
Sole 21,58 Tuna 21,34
Angler 19,50 Angler 21,04
Tuna 17,98 Sole 19,31
Cod 15,54 Cod 16,73
Grenadier 15,36 Grenadier 16,32
Haddock 14,64 Pollack 15,85
Sea Bass 14,59 Sea Bass 15,57
Pollack 13,93 Red Mullet 15,19
Red Mullet 13,38 Haddock 14,58
Grand Total 12,85 Plaice 14,47
Whiting 12,22 Whiting 13,57
Other fish 12,07 Ray 13,11
Salmon 11,97 Ling 13,10
Ray Dab 12,90
11,95
Ling Grand Total 12,74
11,42
Perch 12,33
Saumonette 11,29
Seabream 12,05
Dab 11,09
Other fish 12,03
Perch 10,37 Trout 10,93
Coalfish 10,36 Coalfish 10,78
Seabream 10,03 Salmon 10,02
Plaice 10,02 Merlu 9,70
Trout 9,96 Saumonette 9,67
Merlu 8,88 Pangas 8,34
Pangas 7,29 Maquerel 8,27
Maquerel 6,63 Sardines 4,94
0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00
Price for fresh fish
Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: Fresh fish
Country: France
Source: Europanel/NSC

11. VALUE AND VOLUME DEVELOPMENT FOR FRESH
FISH Q4
60,0
Volume development
Haddock
40,0
Sole Tuna
Salmon 20,0
Coalfish Dab
Hake
Trout
Cod Mackerel
0,0
-40,00 -30,00 -20,00 -10,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00
Cod-Fish Red Mullet
Whiting Perch
Price development
Ray
-20,0 Seabream
Angler
Pangas
Sea bass
-40,0
Ling
Volume and price development -60,0
Period: oct – dec 2010 and 2011
Product: Fresh fish products The size of the cirkle indicates the
Country: France species value related marketshares in
Source: Europanel/NSC Q4 2011

12. MARKET SHARE OF FRESH SALMON SOLD IN
DIFFERENT PRICE INTERVALS.
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
16+
50 % 14-15,99
12-13,99
40 % 10-11,99
7-9,99
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2010 2011
Price for fresh fish
Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011
Product: Fresh fish
Country: France
Source: Europanel/NSC

13. CONSUMERS ARE COMMING BACK AND THEY ARE
BUYING MORE EACH TIME THEY BUYS.
France – fresh sliced salmon
130
Index (period x / period xayer ago)
120
110
100
90
80 Penetration
Trip size
70
Frequency
60 Price
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12
2008 2009 2010 2011
• The households has reacted to the decreased price in Q4 with increase in penetration, frequency and
trip size.
• Trip size for December 2011 is the highest we have measured.
• The price for December 2011 is the fourth lowest price measured in a single period since p01 2006.
Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011
Product: fresh salmon slices
Country: France
Source: Europanel/NSC

14. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE END OF THE
YEAR BUT STILL A POTENTIAL.
France – Smoked Salmon
130
Index (period x / period xayer ago)
125
120
115
110 Penetrasjon
105
Trip size
100
Frekvens
95
Pris
90
85
80
2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 2 4 6 8 10 12 1 3 5 7 9 11 13
2008 2009 2010 2011
• The households has reacted to the increased price in Q4 with decreased penetration, frequency and
trip size.
• Positive developments in p13 for Penetration and Frequency but there is still a potential to before we
are back to “old levels”.
• Prices are still above the prices for the same period a year ago.
Period: quaterly 2009 to 2011
Product: Smoked salmon
Country: France
Source: Europanel/NSC

15. WHAT HAS HAPPEND?
• 74,3% (-0,9 percent points) of all French households
has bought smoked salmon last year.
• 37,7% (-1,2 percent points) of all French households
has bought fresh salmon last year.
– Q4
• Positive development on all of the variables –
penetration, trip size and frequency.
Strongest positive development for
Penetration and trip size.
• Positive development in the groups of lower
income, households age 35+ and households
less than 5 persons.
• Supermarkets have strengthen their position during
2011 – specialized stores have weakened.
• Fresh salmon has only three times before been below
the p13 2011 price.
– 79% of fresh salmon was sold for 11,99 euro or less in
Q4 2011. In Q3 2011 it was only 12% of the volume
sold for less than 11,99 Euro.

16. WHAT HAS HAPPEND?
• Salmon is outperforming seafood and FMCG.
• Salmon is increasing in all chain formats but
especially in Supermarkets.
• Salmon has been one of the most attractive seafood
species to attract new households in 2011.
• 70,4% of the Spanish households are buying salmon
today.
– Aproximately 530 000 new Households from 2010 to
2011 and 1 300 000 new households from 2009 to
2010.
• The increased salmon sales are especially a
consequence of increased numbers of new
households and an increased purchase frequency.
– Increased comsumption among family households in
1. half of 2011 and seniors for 2. half of 2011.
– Increased consumption also among the once in the
lower economic classes.

17. SUMMARY
1. Strong price decrease together with a volume increase for fresh salmon in Q4 and
especially in December.
2. Increased price/ decreased volume trends for Frozen products in Q4 and
3. Some indications for price decrease/ volume increase are seen for smoked Salmon.
4. Spain has had an extraordinary year in terms of sales of salmon.
5. Increased penetration but also trip size in Q4