disaster in climate change

1. Ecosystem Response to
Climate Change
Big question:
How is the place you care about
vulnerable to climate change?

2. Considering Climate Change

3. Considering Climate Change

4. What’s actually changed?

5. Warmer Temperatures
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)
• Temperature has increased 1.3°F to 1.9°F since
1895 in the US
– Greater increases in the north
– Greater increases in recent decades

6. Altered Precipitation
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA), glisa.umich.edu
• Changes variable by geography and season
– More extreme rainfall events, especially in the east
Annual precipitation
Extreme precipitation

7. Sea-level Rise
• Sea level rose about 1 foot since 1900
• Increases in coastal flooding
Adapted from J. Boothroyd, Univ. of Rhode Island www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide
Relative sea level rise: Newport, RI tide gauge
Increased
about 10”
over last 100
years

8. Other Observed Changes
Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover
 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)
Altered Soil Temperature and Frost
 Fewer soil frost days
 Altered freeze-thaw cycles
Longer Growing Seasons
Arrive weeks earlier
More days with leaves
Figure: Walsh et al. 2014 (NCA)

9. And Everything Else
Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s
not complete without it.
Shifley et al. 2014

10. How is the climate expected to
change over the next century?

11. Future Changes: Inherent Uncertainty
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)

12. Warmer Temperatures
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)
Annual Temperature
• Temperature rises of 3.0°F
and greater
– Greater increases in the north
– Greater increases with higher
emissions
– More extreme hot
– Less extreme cold

13. Altered precipitation
Winter Precipitation
• Greater uncertainty
– Winter: wetter in
northern regions
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)

14. Altered precipitation
Summer Precipitation
• Greater uncertainty
– Winter: wetter in
northern regions
– Summer: uncertain, but
potentially drier due to
warmer temperatures
– More extreme events
Figure: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA)

15. Drier Conditions
Figures: K. Kunkel 2013 (NCA) and Wehner et al. 2011 (adapted for NCA)
Consecutive Dry Days
Extreme Drought

16. Sea-level Rise
• Continued increases of multiple feet
• Enhanced storm surge
Projected of areas
affected by sea level
rise along Rhode Island
sea coast
Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/

17. How could ecosystems
be affected?

18. Increased Carbon Dioxide

19. Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

20. Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity*
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
– Limited sink strength
– Interactions with nitrogen
– Ozone damage
– Other reductions in productivity
(e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

21. Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014 (NCA), Nelson Center 2014

22. Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality
• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening
• Frost damage during spring freezing

23. Shorter Winter = LessSnow
Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall in eastern US by end of
century
Low emissions High emissions
Figure: Notaro et al. 2014; https://nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/

24. Shorter Winter = LessSnow
Challenge: Decreased snowpack
• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps
• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes
• Altered soil water recharge
Campbell et al. 2009, Groffman et al. Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015

25. Shorter Winter = LessSnow
, More R
ain
Precipitation is projected to
increase = more rain

26. Shorter Winter = LessSnow
, More R
ain
Precipitation is projected to
increase = more rain
Challenge: Altered stream flow
timing and amount
• Earlier spring peak flows
• Potential increases in flashiness
and episodic high flows
• Potential declines in summer
seasonal stream flow

27. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation

28. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temps
increase
water loss

29. Longer Growing Season+ Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Water loss from soils
(evaporation) Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temps
increase
water loss

30. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

31. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management

32. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Climate Change Atlas:
What happens to tree and bird
habitat when climate changes?
•134 Trees
•147 Birds
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas

33. Changes in Habitat Suitability
2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
High
Sugar Maple
Current Distribution
Importance
Value
Low
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas

34. Changes in Habitat Suitability
2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
High
White Oak
Current Distribution
Importance
Value
Low
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas

35. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
• Many common tree species are projected to have
reduced suitability in the future
• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
• Mature and established trees should fare better
• Immense lags to occupy habitats
• Critical factors: competition, management, &
disturbance

36. Extreme Events
Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
• Heavy precipitation
• Ice storms
• Heat waves/droughts
• Wind storms
• Hurricanes
• “Events” are not well
modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.

37. Interactions: Wildfire
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Figure: K. Hayhoe 2013 (NCA)

38. Interactions: Wildfire
• Warmer/drier summers
• Increased stress or
mortality from less suitable
conditions
• Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
• Spring/early summer moisture
• Current regeneration of more
mesic species
• Land use and fragmentation
• Fire suppression
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Fire may increase: Fire may not change:

39. Interactions: Insectsand Disease
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of
cold lethal temperatures
• Accelerated lifecycles
Challenge: Increased pests and forest diseases
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
Hemlock woolly
adelgid lethal
temp: -20 to -30°F
Figure: NCA

40. Interactions: InvasivePlants
Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the
potential for invasion or success
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take
advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)

41. Interactions: Unexpected Responses
Figure (white box): Northern Rockies Fire Science Network
Human
actions

42. Effects on Ecosystems
Generally Challenges Generally Opportunities
• Reduced growth:
moisture stress
• Decline of
northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from
extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
• Increased productivity:
longer growing season
• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for
some species
What would
you add?

43. Local Considerations
Research and assessments describe broad trends but
local conditions make the difference.