Climate Change and Upper Michigan’s Forests: Risks, Opportunities, and Ways to Adapt

Maria Janowiak, Stephen Handler
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org
Climate Change and
Upper Michigan’s Forests:
Risks, Opportunities, and
Ways to Adapt

More Information
• Examine a range of
future climates
• Do not make
recommendations
• Sources of information:
• Models
• Published research
• Local managers and
experts
Download: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45688 & /46393

Michigan Winters
Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Winter Weather

Weather + Time = Climate

Climate Change

Climate Change
Coldest Winters
1. 1903-04
2. 1917-18
3. 1919-20
4. 1962-63
5. 1916-17
6. 1976-77
7. 1904-05
8. 1935-36
9. 1911-12
10. 2013-14
Warmest Winters
1. 2000-01
2. 1997-98
3. 2015-16*
4. 2011-12
5. 1931-32
6. 1982-83
7. 2005-06
8. 1986-87
9. 1952-53
10. 1998-99

What’s actually changed in
the Northwoods?

Change in Annual Temperature, 1901-2011
www.climatewizard.org
Observed Temperature Changes

Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 1901-2011
Observed Temperature Changes

Observed Precipitation Changes
Change in Annual Precip, 1901-2011

Observed Precipitation Changes
Change in Seasonal Precip, 1901-2011

Saunders and Easley 2014
Observed Trends in Extreme Weather

Other Observed Changes
Warmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover
 Lake Superior water temperature increase of 4.5 °F (1979-2006)
 71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)
 Duration of lake ice cover reduced by 1-2 per decade
Altered Soil Temperature and Frost
 12-24 fewer soil frost days since 1900
 Altered freeze-thaw cycles
Longer Growing Seasons
 Last spring freeze 5.6 days earlier
 First autumn freeze 6.5 days later
Arrive 29 days earlier
Has leaves 11 more days
Assel 2009, Wang et al. 2011, Sinha et al. 2009, Kucharik et al. 2011

And Everything Else
Climate is not the complete story, but the story’s not
complete without it.

How could forests be affected?

Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
HighLow
Last Spring Freeze – End of Century

• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014

• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality
• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening
• Frost damage during spring freezing
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014

Shorter Winter, Less Snow
Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth
 30-70% decreases in snowfall
 Greatest snowfall decreases in December or January
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
HighLow
Days with >10 inches snowpack – End of Century

Shorter Winter = Less Snow
Challenge: Decreased snowpack
• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps
• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes
Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain
Precipitation is projected to
increase = more rain

Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain
Precipitation is projected to
increase = more rain
Challenge: Altered stream flow
timing and amount
• Earlier spring peak flows
• Potential increases in flashiness
and episodic high flows
• Potential declines in summer
seasonal stream flow

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation

Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temps
increase
water loss

Increased Carbon Dioxide
Image: www.science.howstuffworks.com

Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Opportunity: Increased productivity*
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
– Limited sink strength
– Interactions with nitrogen
– Ozone damage
– Other reductions in productivity
(e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management

Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Climate Change Atlas:
What happens to tree and bird
habitat when climate changes?
•134 Trees
•147 Birds
Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

Tree Species Habitat Shifts
2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Current Distribution
Importance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Quaking Aspen
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
White Oak
Current Distribution
Importance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Potential “Losers”
 Balsam fir
 Black spruce
 Jack pine
 Northern white-cedar
 Paper birch
 Quaking aspen
 Tamarack
 White spruce
Mixed Results
 American basswood
 Bur oak
 Eastern hemlock
 Red pine
 Sugar maple
 Yellow birch
Potential “Winners”
 American elm
 Ironwood
 Black oak
 Black walnut
 Eastern redcedar
 Sassafras
 Scarlet oak
 Shagbark hickory
 Silver maple
 White oak
Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
• Many common tree species are projected to have
reduced suitability in the future
• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
• Mature and established trees should fare better
• Immense lags to occupy habitats
• Critical factors: competition, management, &
disturbance

Extreme Events
Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
• Heavy precipitation
• Ice storms
• Heat waves/droughts
• Wind storms
• Hurricanes
• “Events” are not well
modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.

Interactions: Wildfire
Fire may increase:
• Warmer/drier summers
• Increased stress or
mortality from less suitable
conditions
• Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
Fire may not change:
• Spring/early summer moisture
• Current regeneration of more
mesic species
• Land use and fragmentation
• Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

Interactions: Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of cold
lethal temperatures
• Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F
Challenge: Increased forest insects, invasives, diseases

Interactions: Invasive Plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the
potential for invasion or success
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take
advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants

Effects on Forests
Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth:
moisture stress
• Decline of
northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from
extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity:
longer growing season
• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for
some species
What would
you add?

Vulnerability: Local Considerations
Research and assessments describe broad trends but
local conditions make the difference.

Desired
ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife
Habitat
Past
Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale
Revenue
Disturbance:
Past + Future
Recreation
Forest
Health
And more!! Climate
Change
Plan & Project
Requirements

We can’t predict the future…
Don’t wait for
a crystal ball

…but we know enough to take action
Instead: think about reducing risks

Adapting to Change
Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

Adaptation Demonstrations
www.forestadaptation.org
Click ‘Demonstration Projects’
Forest Cover

Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS
• Gogebic County
• 1,100 acres
• Ruffed grouse,
woodcock, deer, and
snowshoe hare
www.forestadaptation.org/node/544
(grouse-enhanced management system)

Challenges
• Increased risk of moisture
stress
• Long-term decline of quaking
aspen
• Trail & access issues
Opportunities
• Species like northern red oak
may increase
• Near-term opportunity to
regenerate aspen

• Increased risk of moisture
stress
• Long-term decline of quaking
aspen
• Trail & access issues
Opportunities
• Species like northern red oak
may increase
• Near-term opportunity to
regenerate aspen
Challenges

 220,000 acres of forest
 Managed by Menominee
Tribal Enterprises for
Menominee Indian Tribe
Oak Wilt Treatment :
 Harvest affected &
adjacent oaks
 Pull stumps to sever root
connection
 Harvest other species in
pocket
: www.forestadaptation.org/mte
Menominee Forest

Menominee Forest
Challenges Opportunities
• Reforesting the oak wilt
sites provides an
opportunity to plant
assemblages that may be
better able to respond to
future stressors.
 Oak wilt reduces the ability to
maintain healthy, productive
forests and meet other
management goals
 Oak wilt treatment results in
heavily disturbed sites

Plant selection: Traditional Ecological Knowledge
Tree Species Notes Menominee Name Meaning Menominee Use
White Oak 60% of site Askeqtemaehnak Good for the eyes medicinal/food
Black Oak 30% of site Anipahkahkuehtek Black inside medicinal/food
Bur Oak 8% of site Mahkemenah maeqtekomen Biggest acorn medicinal/food
Swamp Oak 1% of site Maskik-askeqtemaeh Found in swamp medicinal/food
Post oak 1% of site
Additional Tree Species
Black Walnut Kentucky Bluegrass along side Paskanaweh Good tasting nut medicinal/food
American Elm Variety with higher resistance Keckiwahtek Elder Tree medicinal
Shingle Oak Hoping for shrublike effect
Black Cherry Earlier successional stage Awaehsehsaekahtek Little Bear tree medicinal
Northern White-cedar Medicine tree within stand Kesaehkahtek Medicine tree
medicinal/
ceremonial
Example plant list for some sites
Menominee Forest

Summer 2015 and 2016
• Tree planting
• Seeding of understory plants
Menominee Forest

If you want a single “answer” for how to
respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
Adaptation: The Real Story

www.ForestAdaptation.org
Stephen Handler: sdhandler@fs.fed.us
Maria Janowiak: mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
Thank you!

Climate Change and Upper Michigan’s Forests: Risks, Opportunities, and Ways to Adapt

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