Presentation about on farm assessment of vulnerability to climate change effects like increased variability in precipitation and temperatures, warmer winters, extreme weather and novel pest and diseases. Includes a discussion of observed changes in weather as reported in the Draft 3rd National Climate Assessment and an on-farm vulnerability assessment based on sustainable whole farm management principles.

1. Southern SAWG Conference, Mobile AL, January 2014
Is Your Farm Climate Ready?
Best Practices for Managing
Climate Risk on Your Farm
Laura Lengnick
Warren Wilson College, Asheville, NC
“Although agriculture has a long history of successful adaptation to
climate conditions, the current pace of climate change and the
intensity of projected climate changes represent a novel and
unprecedented challenge to the sustainability of U.S. agriculture.“
Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation.
C. Walthall, J. Hatfield, L. Lengnick, E. Marshall and P. Backlund. 2012. USDA
Technical Bulletin 1935

2. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

3. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

4. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

5. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

6. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft
Percent Change in Very Heavy Precipitation
Baseline 1900-1960

7. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft
• Changes in Precip
• NCA precip fig

8. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

9. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

10. 3rd National Climate Assessment Draft

11. Future Winters in Southeast
• Changes in weather
– More warm days in winter
– Fewer very cold days and days with snow cover
• Agricultural impacts
– Less pest die back
– Slower chill accumulation
– Increased plant growth and development
– Increased soil microbe activity

12. Future Springs in Southeast
• Changes in weather
– More warm days
– More intense storms, increased hail
• Agricultural impacts
– Earlier emergence of pests, fruit crops
– Earlier maturity of winter crops
– More variable last freeze
– Increased risk of freeze/hail damage

13. Future Summers in Southeast
• Changes in weather
– More hot days, warm nights
– Fewer days with rain
– More days with intense rain
• Agricultural Impacts
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More heat, moisture stress
Increased water use
More days of excess water
Faster crop development/maturity
Reduced pollen viability
Increased pest pressure

14. Future Autumns in Southeast
• Changes in Weather
– More intense hurricanes
– More warm days/nights
– Later first frost
• Agricultural impacts
– Longer growing season
– Higher pest pressures
– Higher risk of hurricane damage

15. Productivity Costs
• Crops may benefit at first,
but production falls with
continued change
• Forage quality declines
• Livestock productivity
declines
• Weeds, diseases, and
insect pests more
competitive
• Extreme events reduce
product quality and yields

16. Potential Opportunities
• Longer growing season
• Higher near-term crop
production
• New warm season crops
• New market potentials
• Lower winter costs

17. Agricultural Risk
Climate
Production
Financial
Farm
Performance
Legal
Marketing
Human

18. Climate Risk
Exposure
Degree to which a farm experiences
climate-related events.
Farm Vulnerability
Adaptive Capacity
Ability of a farm to cope with
climate-related events.

19. How Vulnerable Is Your Farm?
• Key exposures
– average temperature increase
– Higher low and high temps
– Increasing weather variability
– Greater number of more intense extreme
events
– Multiple impacts increase risk
• Adaptive capacity of your farm system
– Production sensitivities
– Resource characteristics

20. Production Sensitivities?
• Critical growth or development stage
thresholds
• Pest challenges
• Pollination services
• Plant available water
• Humidity
• Timing of field operations

21. Resource Characteristics?
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Soil
Water
Microclimates
Crops/Livestock
Infrastructure
Production system
Extreme events plan
Farm reserves
Community support

22. Key Actions Now
• Recognize you are farming on a changing planet
• Address key farm vulnerabilities
• Draw on existing knowledge, local experience
and experience from warmer regions
• Use “no-regrets” adaptations to enhance
adaptive capacity
• Monitor farm performance
• Use climate projections in longer-term decisions