The Black Swan" was written by N.N. Taleb. This presentation contains main concept of black swan theory

1. Black Swan Theory
PRESENTER : MOHAMMAD SADEGH ABBASIKIA 1

2. Black Swan Theory
MAIN CONCEPT:
A Black Swan, a member of the species Cygnus
Atratus, which remained undocumented in the
West until the 18thCentury.
The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor that
discuss the impact of a hard-to-predict event
or a surprise in many aspects of our Society.
2

3. The Black Swan Theory
Where does the name come from?
It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval
Europe that black swans could not exist, when in
fact, they are rare, but do exist.
3

4. The Black Swan Theory
According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable
events are much more common than people think
and are the norm and not the exception.
The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and
mathematical theory founded by Nassim Nicholas
Taleb and it describes randomness and uncertainty.
4

5. The Black Swan Theory
The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical
and mathematical theory founded by
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and it describes
randomness and uncertainty.
THE AUTHOR
NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB
5

6. The Black Swan Theory
TALEB BELIEVES THAT:
The more educated people are, the more likely
it is that they incorrectly believe these
unpredictable events are uncommon.
Information overflow in today's society blind
us from relevant data about our life.
We don ́t interpret data accurately and create
correlations that are not relevant Black
Swan
Low
probability
High impact
Unexpected
events
6

7. The Black Swan Theory
COVID-19 IS A BLACK SWAN?
According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would
eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a
white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties
7

8. Real Life Examples - Famous Predictions
EARLY COMPUTERS:
In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas
Watson, declared that, “there is a world
market for maybe five computers.
BEATLES:
In 1962, Decca recording company said ofthe
Beatles, “we don’t like their sound, and guitar
music is on the way out
8

9. Real Examples
SEPTEMBER 11 ATTACKS: DISSOLUTION OF THE SOVIET UNION:
9

10. The Black Swan Theory
WE CAN ́T PREDICT THE FUTURE!
We can ́t predict the future based on the following statements:
Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong
tomorrow.
Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again.
Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right
tomorrow.
10

11. The Black Swan Theory
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE HARD-TO-PREDICT EVENT?
The first thing is you should not deny the black
swan events. It happens to everyone.
Another important thing to understand is, a
black swan event to me might not be a black
swan event to you.
Plan for the worst case. What could be the
black swan event for you?
11

12. 12