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Black Swan Theory Main Aspects
<ul><li>A Black Swan, a member of the species  Cygnus Atratus , which remained undocumented in the West until the 18 th  C...
<ul><li>The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor that discuss the impact of a hard-to-predict event or a surprise in many aspec...
<ul><li>The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and mathematical theory founded by  Nassim Nicholas Taleb  and it describ...
<ul><li>It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval Europe that black swans could not exist, when in fact, they are...
<ul><li>According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than people think and are the norm a...
<ul><li>Taleb believes that: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The more educated people are, the more likely it is that they incorrect...
<ul><li>In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas </li></ul><ul><li>Watson, declared that, “there is a world  </li></ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong and the crisis destroyed man...
<ul><li>We can´t predict the future based on the following statements: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Whatever proven right today, ...
<ul><li>The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone.  </li></ul><ul><li>Another i...
Lico Reis Consultoria  & Línguas Prof. Roberto Lico Our Website: www.licoreis.com [email_address] [email_address] [email_a...
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The Black Swan Theory

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The Black Swan Theory

  1. 1. Black Swan Theory Main Aspects
  2. 2. <ul><li>A Black Swan, a member of the species Cygnus Atratus , which remained undocumented in the West until the 18 th Century. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory The Beautiful Bird
  3. 3. <ul><li>The Black Swan Theory is a metaphor that discuss the impact of a hard-to-predict event or a surprise in many aspects of our Society. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory The Key Concept
  4. 4. <ul><li>The Black Swan Theory is a philosophical and mathematical theory founded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and it describes randomness and uncertainty. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory The Author – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  5. 5. <ul><li>It's name originates in the assumption in Medieval Europe that black swans could not exist, when in fact, they are rare, but do exist. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory Where does the name come from?
  6. 6. <ul><li>According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than people think and are the norm and not the exception. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory Important
  7. 7. <ul><li>Taleb believes that: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The more educated people are, the more likely it is that they incorrectly believe these unpredictable events are uncommon. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Information overflow in today's society blind us from relevant data about our life. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We don´t interpret data accurately and create correlations that are not relevant. </li></ul></ul>The Black Swan Theory Main Aspects of the Theory
  8. 8. <ul><li>In 1943, the chairman of IBM, Thomas </li></ul><ul><li>Watson, declared that, “there is a world </li></ul><ul><li>market for maybe five computers.” </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples - Famous Predictions In 1962, Decca recording company said of the Beatles, “we don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
  9. 9. <ul><li>Real estate were convinced to be the best reliable asset but it was then proven wrong and the crisis destroyed many business and people´s life. </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory Real Life Examples – USA Crisis
  10. 10. <ul><li>We can´t predict the future based on the following statements: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Whatever proven right today, doesn’t mean it will be right forever. It can be proven wrong tomorrow. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Whatever proven wrong tomorrow, doesn’t mean it will NOT be proven right again. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Whatever proven wrong today, doesn't mean it will be wrong forever. It can be proven right tomorrow. </li></ul></ul>The Black Swan Theory We can´t predict the future!
  11. 11. <ul><li>The first thing is you should not deny the black swan events. It happens to everyone. </li></ul><ul><li>Another important thing to understand is, a black swan event to me might not be a black swan event to you. </li></ul><ul><li>Plan for the worst case. What could be the black swan event for you? </li></ul>The Black Swan Theory How to deal with the Hard-to-predict Event
  12. 12. Lico Reis Consultoria & Línguas Prof. Roberto Lico Our Website: www.licoreis.com [email_address] [email_address] [email_address] Linkedin: ww.migre.me/1d9r Twitter: @licoreis

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