Youth Time foresight: Megatrends, shaping our future


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Youth Time foresight: Megatrends, shaping our future

  1. 1. MEGATRENDSSHAPING <br />OUR FUTURE<br />Preliminary Reading for the Foresight<br />
  2. 2. Relevant megatrends for Russian social projects<br />Demography:<br /> - Aging Russian population<br /> - Demographic decline before 2015<br /> - Population grows due to migration from Central Asia and Caucasus republics population into Russian cities<br /> - Large Asian countries (China & India) become new leaders in science & culture due to the growth of young urban population<br />Economy:<br /> - Globalization as a global competition for production of resources, products & services, Russia’s loss of high-tech production markets<br />- Global competition in the labor market, increased proffessional mobility<br /> - Growth of the middle class, variety of consumption as a personal value<br /> - Fast change of the set and content of dominant professions<br /> - Change of the technological paradigm (after 2020)incl. growing highly local economy e.g. DIY segment supported by 3Dprinting technology<br />Society & politics:<br /> - ‘Citizen of the world’: growth of suprastate(global) culture<br /> - Growth of grassroot democracy, expansion of network communities<br /> - Growth of government autocracy couple with growing ineffiency<br />- Youth infantilization<br /> - Expansion of global Islam, Virtual Khalifate project<br />Ecology & natural resources<br /> - Worsened environmental situation in emerging economies, global climate change and other human impacts on natue<br />
  3. 3. Extended megatrends list: demographic trends<br />1.Total population growth from 7 billion (2011) to 9 billion (2030). The largest country in terms of population by 2025 is India. Overall tendency to decline in global population increase rate.<br />2. Aging population in developed countries (European Union, USA, Japan etc.) and some emerging markets (Russia, China) due to two important demographic tendencies:<br /><ul><li>increase life longevity (improved healthcare, safety, quality of life etc.)
  4. 4. decreased fertility (lower number of children per 1 woman)</li></ul>A number of large countries still has dominance of young population (these countries are sources of political instability and new culture), incl.: <br /><ul><li>India
  5. 5. Asia: Afghanistan / Pakistan / Central Asia
  6. 6. Africa (e.g.Nigeria)</li></ul>3. Growth of population due to non-dominant ethnic groups (which often are poorer and less educated) in many developed countries including Russia<br />4. Urbanization (broadly understood as the transfer of rural population into cities and spread of urban way of life into rural areas). Incl. growth of urbanization in developing countries (Asia) where the share of urban population goes from 30% in 2009 to 80% by 2025 (+1 billion urban citizen – some will become creators of new culture and new science).<br />5. Growing importance of female professionals incl. executive positions<br />6. Changing family structure in developed and developing markets (due to urbanization and growth in the quality of life):<br /><ul><li>families become smaller – increased importance of non-family / cross-family relations, lowered importance of family bonds
  7. 7. family forms change (emergence of many new forms of cohabitation, often not legitimized by the government)</li></li></ul><li>Extended megatrends list: economic trends<br />1.Globalization (as spreading of Anglo-Saxon type of capitalism)<br />as a stable trend: increasing importance of international trade; global competition for production of commodities, goods and services, global competition in the labor market<br />as a declining trend: increasing isolationism following 2008 crisis, growing xenophobia<br />2. Shifting centers of economic power:<br /><ul><li>possible end of Dollar Era and decrease in the importance of American capital by 2020
  8. 8. risk of Euro zone collapse by 2020 and decline of the EU
  9. 9. rise of new centers of economic power: South-East Asia (Singapore, Hong Kong), India and China</li></ul>3. Growth of wealth:<br />as a stable trend: <br /><ul><li>by 2020,middle class in China / India is expected to rise from 5% to 40%
  10. 10. sharp decline in absolute poverty (Africa, South-East Asia)</li></ul>as a declining trend:<br /><ul><li>increased inequality and rich-poor conflicts in Latin America, Africa, US, Russia
  11. 11. change of the production paradigm (around2020-25 г.) may seriously redistribute the global wealth</li></ul>4. Commercialization (increased in-taking of human activities into the market domain)<br />5. Shift in consumer demand types from ‘product economy’ to ‘experience economy’ with individualization of consumption<br />6. Changes in economic structure<br /><ul><li>growth of post-industrial economy and service sector
  12. 12. expansion of post-information economy
  13. 13. shift from ‘profession’ to ‘line of occuption’ as a paradigm of the labor market
  14. 14. growth of localized economy incl. DIYsector (supported by 3D printing)</li></ul>7. Continuing importance of basic industries, incl.:<br /><ul><li>growing global demand for food (change from extensive to intensive production technologies)
  15. 15. growing global demand for energy and change in energy sources (towards renewable)
  16. 16. ICT infrastructure
  17. 17. uncertain trend: transportation (possible ‘roadless economy’)</li></li></ul><li>Extended megatrends list: politics and society<br />1. Growing supranational (global) culture (supported by Internet and cosmopolitan megapolises)<br />2. Democratization:<br />as a stable trend: increased variety of social self-organization forms, ‘grassroot democracy’, incl. forms supported by Internet<br />as a declining trend: limitation of democratic initiatives by governments even in developed countries; disappearance of ‘democracy champions’ (e.g. USA)<br />3. Change in leading social institutions:<br /><ul><li>growing government inefficiency
  18. 18. growing importance of corporations as social leaders
  19. 19. growing importance of network communities and self-organized movements
  20. 20. growing importance of world religions in their national / regional versions, incl. spread of religious fundamentalism
  21. 21. post-modernity culture crisis</li></ul>4. Territorial and social instability<br /><ul><li>intra-country ethnic / religious conflicts in large countries: Russia, India, China, EU, …
  22. 22. risk of large country collapse (Russia, China, India, USA etc.)</li></ul>5. New transnational geopolitical projects:<br /><ul><li>‘virtual Khalifate’ (fundamental Islam global expansion and leadership)
  23. 23. restart of US geopolitical project (after 2020)</li></ul>6. Growth of inter-country interactions:<br />as a stable trend: emergence of inter-country partnerships and activities not related to the government<br />as a declining trend: collapse of existing institutions (UN, IMF, …) while new ones have not emerged yet<br />7. Increased possibility of global war conflicts (by2020):<br /><ul><li>global Islam activities: India-Pakistan war (and similar…) and risks of global war
  24. 24. China-Russia war (as a consequence of mass scale crisis in China)</li></li></ul><li>Extended megatrends list: environment and natural resources<br />1. Global climate change:<br /><ul><li>changes in temperature (mean / variance) – change in regions suitable for living
  25. 25. change in ocean currents (e.g.disappearance of Gulfstream)</li></ul>2. Continuing disappearance of wild nature<br />3. Expansion of agricultural segment and rise of new agricultural regions (incl. possible second reclamation of agricultural land in European Russia and increase of agricultural land in Siberia)<br />4. Collapse of oil industry (by2030):<br /><ul><li>shift towards energy transport
  26. 26. shift of energy generation to gas, wind, coal and nuclear energy</li></ul>5. Rapid decline of environment quality in emerging markets due to rapid industrialization (esp. China, Brazil, Mexico)<br />6. Water deficit in emerging markets (esp. China and India)<br />7. Risk of pandemics due to population growth and rapid urbanization in developing countries (not always supported by the development of healthcare and hygiene infrastructure)<br />
  27. 27. List of References<br />1. The Future of the Family to 2030. A Scoping Report. OECD International Futures Programme, Paris, 2008<br />2. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, 2008. Электронная версия:<br />3. Cohen, Barney (2006) Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability. Technology in Society 28 (2006) 63–80<br />4. The Evolving Internet. Driving Forces, Uncertainties, and Four Scenarios to 2025. Report prepared by Cisco and GBN, 2010.<br />5. Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture. National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, 2010. <br />6. Kaplan J.L., Pocharski M. (2010) Growth Capitals: Megacity Growth Strategy. Monitor Group Report<br />7. Trend Compendium 2030. Research by Roland Berger. See:<br />8. The Future of Foresight. Long Term Strategic Considerations for Promoting the Precautionary Principle. Prepared by the smartMeme Strategy & Training Project for the Science and Environmental Health Network. September 2005 - June 2006.<br />9. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. Summary report. FAO, 2002<br />10. Meadows D., Randers J., Meadows D. (2004) Limits to Growth, The 30‑Year Update. Chelsea Green Publishing Company<br />11. Changing the Balance of Power: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends Affecting Every Aspect of your Life. OilPrice.Com, 2010. See:<br />12. Naisbitt J. (1988) Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. Grand Central Publishing<br />13. Martin J. (2007) The Meaning of the 21st Century: A Vital Blueprint for Ensuring Our Future. Riverhead Trade.<br />14. 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning. KnowledgeWorks Foundation. Электронная версия:<br />15. Thornburg D. (1997) 2020 Visions for the Future of Education. Электронная версия:<br />16. Top 12 areas for innovation through 2025. Social Technologies, 2007. Электронная версия:<br />17. Childhood 2030 Foresight (in Russian). Seee<br />18. Science & Technology 2025 Foresight (in Russian). Russian Nanotechnologies,No. 5-6, 2009<br />19. Long-term forecast of Russian Federation science & technology development (in Russian). See:<br />20. Russian ICT Foresight. Moscow, 2007<br />