Digital ad spends trend 2015 2016

International Ad Forecast 2015/16
December 2015

Adspend
Generally, data are net of discounts and include agency commission
and classified advertising,but exclude production costs.
Please refer to the associated Excel spreadsheet for full notes on
each country’s data.
Purchasing Power Parity
PPPs measure the buying power of local currency units (e.g. US$,
GB£) when spent in their domestic markets. They enable accurate
international comparisons of economies and prices by removing the
impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
The US economy is used as the global reference point for PPPs and is
set to an index score of 100.
Constant prices
Constant prices allow researchers to examine data which have been
adjusted to remove the impact of inflation.Technically, constant prices
are volume measures whose values are calculated by applying prices
from a specific base period to current quantities. This calculation
produces a series of derived prices which facilitate comparisons
across different periods.
The base period for this report in 2005.
Access the full data on the Warc International Ad Forecast Page
Notes on Data

The global adspend outlook
We estimate global advertising spend (based on 12 major markets)
increased by 2.2% in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2015. This
is mildly below our previous expectations in July (-0.1pp). A further rise,
of 4.4%, is forecast next year.
After allowing for inflation, real adspend growth is expected to be 1.1%
this year and 2.3% in 2016.
When measured using PPPs, the 12 markets studied account for just
over two-thirds of global advertising expenditure, so act as a sufficient
bellwether for the state of the industry at large. Many are considered
mature, and therefore offer trend insights which will evolve in emerging
markets over the coming years.
One such pattern is the shift in ad budgets from so called ‘traditional’
media to digital channels. This is epitomised by the rise of advertising
via the internet, mainly under the umbrella forms of search and display,
but increasingly among the macro formats of video, social and native.
Further, mobile is now seen to be acting as a key driver of total online
growth.
Internet is now the largest ad medium in half of the markets studied in
this report. Ad expenditure is estimated to have grown 17.4% this year,
and we forecast a further rise of 12.2% in 2016. When measured in US
dollars, growth translates to 17.1% and 12.0% respectively, with spend
expected to have reached a record $154.2bn by the end of next year.
Beyond this, digital is playing a growing role in the galvanisation of
traditional media. Programmatic trading, the automated buying and
selling of ad space, has been the catalyst for hastening spend on out of
home, radio, and indeed TV advertising in a number of these markets.
Targeted advertising, informed by an ever-growing and increasingly
accurate cache of consumer data, has given rise to technology such as
near field communication (NFC) and beacons. The prospect of enhan-
ced personalisation originally heightened internet’s allure as a
tool, and now deployment on the high street is becoming routine as
smartphones and digital out of home panels empower ‘moment marketing’.
But within this environment of ‘always on’ consumerism, and the growing
necessity to present the right message at the right time, comes a greater
need for budget accountability. The exact effectiveness and ROI of digital
campaigns are at times lost in the ether as ‘likes’ and ‘shares’ supplant the
proven performance metrics of yore. Issues surrounding viewability and ad
fraud, atop growing concerns around the prevalence of ad blocking (though
adoption is thought to be nominal at present), encompass a digital back-lash
demonstrative of the new frontier.
The times, they are a changin’, though one should not dismiss the stalwarts of
advertising just yet. While this research finds that, when our 12 markets are
taken together, more will be spent delivering marketing messages via the
internet than through the television set for the first time next year, TV still holds
a competitive edge with the live broadcast of major events, a number of
take place in 2016.
4.5
-0.9
-10.4
8.0
5.3 4.7 3.8
5.4
2.2
4.4
0
100
200
300
400
500
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PPPbillions
Annual%change
Source: Warc, International Ad Forecast, December 2015
Global advertising expenditure, current prices
Annual % change Adspend (PPP billion)
marketing
which

-7.7
-6.5
2.9
0.3
2.3
2.2
12.2
4.4
-11.8
-10.9
-2.5
-1.2
0.2
4.8
17.4
2.2
Magazines
Newspapers
TV
Radio
Outdoor
Cinema
Internet
Total
2015 2016
The global adspend outlook cont.
Indeed, on a US dollar basis, TV adspend is forecast to rise in all but
one of our major markets next year, as the Summer Olympic and
Paralympic Games provide the opportunity for heightened brand
exposure. The Euro 2016 football tournament, hosted by France, will
boost TV ad revenue across the region in much the same way the
Rugby World Cup did on a national level in the UK this year. The US
presidential campaigns will also fuel domestic spend in the world’s
largest ad market.
We forecast PPP growth of 2.9% for global TV adspend in 2016, or 3.5%
when measured in US dollars, amounting to a new high of $149.5bn.
This does however follow an estimated 2.5% contraction in global TV
spend this year (-1.3% in dollar terms), as less was invested in each of
the three largest markets.
Perhaps the starkest example of a break with the old is the continuing
fall in print advertising revenue. While growth can still be found in India
– something unlikely to change in the coming years – overall, global
print adspend fell by double-digits in 2015. The rate of decline is
expected to ease during 2016.
Forecasting is not an exact science, and we can only hope to predict
the future by understanding what’s around us today. While many of the
markets in this report are experiencing decent GDP growth after a
global financial crisis which, in real terms, means advertisers are
collectively spending less now than they did in 2007, global economic
prosperity is not a foregone conclusion.
A slowdown in China has led to decreased demand which may hamper
its key trade partners, chiefly Brazil and Australia. Further, oil prices are
at their lowest in seven years, which is hurting major exporters like
Russia and Canada. Two of our 12 markets are in recession, while two
more met the technical requirement this year.
Be that as it may, it is important to note that real consumer expenditure
is expected to rise in almost all of our major markets next year. Perhaps
one certainty, then, is that the evolution of advertising will continue Source: Warc, International Ad Forecast, December 2015apace.

16.4
8.6
6.1
3.9 3.6
2.0 1.9 1.8
0.8 0.7
-0.3
-13.4
13.0
6.9
5.7 5.4
2.7 2.4
4.9
2.5
1.8 2.0
0.7 0.9
India China UK Brazil Australia Germany US Japan Italy Canada France Russia
Year-on-year % change, local currency, current prices
2015 2016
Adspend by country

10.9
6.9
5.9
1.9 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.7
-0.4 -0.6
-4.9
-23.5
7.3
4.9
4.1
0.1
1.0
2.9
1.7
0.8
-0.2
0.0
-2.5
-7.0
India China UK Australia Germany US Japan Italy France Canada Brazil Russia
Year-on-year % change, local currency, constant 2005 prices
2015 2016
Adspend by country

11.2
3.4
-8.7
11.9
-0.7 -0.4
2.0 1.2
3.6 2.7
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
A$millions
Annual%change
Advertising Expenditure, 2007–2016(f)
Annual % change Adspend (A$ million)
Advertising outlook
Australia
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 2.7% 2.3% (▼0.2pp) 2.7% (▼0.3pp)
CPI 2.5% 1.7% (▼0.2pp) 2.6% (▲0.1pp)
Consumer Spend 2.5% 2.6% (▼0.3pp) 2.9% (▼0.1pp)
Note: Revisions since July shown in brackets
A$ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 2,117.1 -14.9% (▲0.9pp) -16.2% (▼1.1pp)
Magazines 593.7 -15.7% (▲0.5pp) -17.1% (▼3.4pp)
TV 4,321.4 -0.7% (▼1.5pp) 0.4% (▲0.9pp)
Radio 1,159.4 2.0% (▲1.0pp) 1.5% (▲4.6pp)
Cinema 104.8 16.8% (▲11.7pp) 3.9% (▲2.8pp)
Outdoor 662.5 9.4% (▲3.1pp) 7.5% (▲2.3pp)
Internet 4,631.2 17.8% (▲2.9pp) 12.2% (▼0.8pp)
Total 13,590.1 3.6% (▲1.0pp) 2.7% (▲0.3pp)
6
8
3 3 3
0
6 6
3 3 3
-2
Television Newspapers Magazines Radio Outdoor Internet
Source: Warc, Media Inflation Forecast, October 2015
Media inflation, year-on-year % change
2015 2016
A weaker currency is helping Australia to weather falling commodity
prices and flagging demand from its main export partner, China, by
boosting tourism and bolstering export competitiveness. Consumers
are beginning to show signs of positivity despite a long period of real
wage stagnation. Christmas spending intentions were at a record
high in 2015. A new PM has upped the government’s approval rating.
Internet adspend, driven by mobile, is underpinning overall market
growth. Australia’s first programmatic network for the outdoor sector
was switched on in May, and radio already benefits from digital trade.
Source: CEASA; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Overview
Economic outlook

-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual%change
Annual growth, constant 2005 prices
Consumer spend GDP Adspend
The forecast decline in Brazil’s economic output this year and next
will result in the longest recession since the 1930s. Consumer
confidence is at a record low and spend is expected to dip for the
first time in over a decade as real wages fall and inflation spirals.
One million jobs have been lost this year.
The Olympic and Paralympics games in Rio de Janeiro next August
will boost adspend growth, particularly for TV and outdoor, while
there is plenty of growth left in the online market. Be that is it may,
tough economic conditions have caused us to lower expectations.
9.7
13.3
4.5
23.7
11.2
9.3 10.3
12.0
3.9
5.4
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BRLmillions
Annual%change
Advertising expenditure, 2007–2016(f)
Annual % change Adspend (BRL million)
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
Brazil
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 0.1% -2.9% (▼1.9pp) -1.5% (▼2.7pp)
CPI 6.3% 9.2% (▲1.1pp) 8.1% (▲1.8pp)
Consumer Spend 1.3% -3.7% (▼3.5pp) -2.6% (▼3.8pp)
BRL millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 2,881.7 -9.9% (▼0.3pp) -8.7% (▼0.5pp)
Magazines 1,477.4 -13.3% (▼1.0pp) -9.4% (▼0.8pp)
TV 25,184.6 3.3% (▼0.5pp) 5.1% (▼1.9pp)
Radio 1,332.2 0.6% (▼2.2pp) 2.9% (▼1.4pp)
Cinema 108.8 -1.1% (▼4.4pp) 2.9% (▼0.7pp)
Outdoor 1,346.1 4.1% (▼4.6pp) 10.4% (▼0.5pp)
Internet 8,359.6 14.2% (▼1.3pp) 11.6% (▼4.5pp)
Total 40,690.4 3.9% (▼0.9pp) 5.4% (▼2.3pp)
Source: Projecto InterMeios; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Overview

20.76
51.44
17.95
15.30
7.46
13.37
21.59
52.98
18.22
15.91
7.65
13.90
Television Newspapers Magazines Radio Out Of Home Internet
Source: Warc, Media Costs Database, December 2015
Cost per thousand, Adults, Canadian dollars
2014 2015
5.2
4.4
-7.5
8.7
4.3
3.3
-2.7
-1.2
0.7
2.0
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
C$millions
Annual%change
Source: TVB; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Annual % change Adspend (C$ million)
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
Canada
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 2.7% 1.2% (▼0.7pp) 2.0% (▼0.2pp)
CPI 1.9% 1.3% (▲0.1pp) 2.0% (▼0.1pp)
Consumer Spend 2.7% 2.1% (▲0.4pp) 2.1% (◄0.0pp)
C$ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 2,512.4 -11.4% (▲0.5pp) -8.5% (▼0.9pp)
Magazines 858.6 -10.4% (▼1.0pp) -9.0% (▼0.8pp)
TV 3,950.6 -1.2% (▼0.6pp) -1.0% (▼0.9pp)
Radio 1,676.6 0.7% (▼1.2pp) 1.6% (▼0.3pp)
Outdoor 612.5 6.0% (▲0.1pp) 5.7% (▲0.8pp)
Internet 3,793.0 12.3% (▲0.7pp) 11.8% (▲0.4pp)
Total 13,403.7 0.7% (▼0.1pp) 2.0% (▼0.3pp)
Canada’s economic expansion is slowing in line with the falling price
of oil. The Bank of Canada has twice cut interest rates with a view to
strengthen exports, yet the country fell into a technical recession in
2015, its first since 2008. A new liberal government has promised
increasing investment in infrastructure and radical tax reform including
a 1.5pp cut for middle-earners. Consumer spending remains healthy.
The IAB report shifts is the allocation of spend towards mobile and
video formats, and internet overall will surpass TV as Canada’s top ad
channel this year. Digital is also aiding growth in outdoor ad revenues.
Overview

Economic expansion relied heavily on the service sector in 2015,
particularly financial. A decrease in industry output concerns many.
Official efforts to depreciate the renminbi have done little to allay
market unease. Chinese consumers, however, continue to spend
more each year. The share of discretionary purchasing rises in tow.
New regulatory policy has reduced TV ad length. Marketers are
keen to utilise TV sponsorship and product placement however
opportunity is sparse. Radio stations have also reduced their ad
lengths. Traditional brands are starting to move to digital media as
e-commerce booms.
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 7.4% 6.9% (◄0.0pp) 6.5% (▼0.1pp)
CPI 1.5% 1.6% (▼0.3pp) 1.9% (▼0.3pp)
Consumer Spend 7.5% 5.8% (▼0.1pp) 6.0% (◄0.0pp)
13
8
10
14
11
9
14
8
10
14
11
10
2015 2016
15.3
16.7
13.2
21.2 24.1
12.9
10.6
12.5
8.6
6.9
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RMBmillions
Annual%change
Source: CTR China; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Annual % change Adspend (RMB millions)
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
China
RMB millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 28,870.8 -32.6% (▼0.5pp) -19.8% (▼8.7pp)
Magazines 3,965.4 -16.2% (▼2.7pp) -17.3% (▼5.7pp)
TV 96,261.3 -1.2% (▼1.0pp) 0.7% (▼0.4pp)
Radio 18,941.8 4.6% (▲2.8pp) 2.0% (▲0.1pp)
Outdoor 17,367.9 5.2% (▲1.1pp) 3.2% (▲0.2pp)
Internet 123,200.0 27.8% (▲1.6pp) 15.5% (▲0.6pp)
Total 288,607.2 8.6% (▼0.4pp) 6.9% (▼0.2pp)
Overview

4
2 2
1
-1
1
4
2 2
1
2
1
2015 2016
6.6
-0.7
-12.6
6.1
3.7
1.6
-2.4
-0.5 -0.3
0.7
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
€millions
Annual%change
Annual % change Adspend (€ million)
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
France
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 0.2% 1.1% (◄0.0pp) 1.4% (▼0.1pp)
CPI 0.6% 0.1% (▼0.1pp) 0.9% (▼0.1pp)
Consumer Spend -0.9% 1.6% (◄0.0pp) 1.7% (▲0.3pp)
€ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 1,614.5 -8.2% (▼1.1pp) -6.3% (▼0.4pp)
Magazines 1,378.1 -8.1% (▼0.1pp) -7.7% (▼0.7pp)
TV 3,592.5 1.0% (▲0.5pp) 1.6% (▲1.0pp)
Radio 809.5 -2.4% (▲0.4pp) -1.0% (▲0.2pp)
Cinema 90.3 -1.2% (▲4.0pp) -0.6% (▲1.8pp)
Outdoor 1,309.0 -0.5% (▼0.2pp) 1.8% (▲0.9pp)
Internet 3,724.6 5.3% (▼0.4pp) 5.2% (◄0.0pp)
Total 12,518.6 -0.3% (▼0.1pp) 0.7% (▲0.3pp)
GDP is on course to meet the target +1% in 2015, ending three years of
stagnation. Economic expansion is reliant on domestic demand and
industrial production, yet both are unremarkable. Unemployment is at
10%. Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republican party held seven regions after the
general election in December, while the Socialist party controlled the
remaining five. President François Hollande intends to run in 2017.
Data from IREP show decreasing ad revenue for the nation’s print titles,
a trend we expect to continue into 2016. TV adspend is up from a flat
2014, and will rise further as France hosts a major football tournament.
Source: IREP; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Overview

4
2
3 3
0 0
4
2
3 3
0
2
2015 2016
5.4
-0.2
-9.3
5.3
4.3
-2.6
0.7
2.0 2.0 2.4
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
€millions
Annual%change
Source: ZAW; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
Germany
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 1.6% 1.6% (▼0.3pp) 1.8% (▼0.3pp)
CPI 0.8% 0.2% (▼0.3pp) 1.4% (▼0.3pp)
Consumer Spend 1.4% 2.0% (▼0.3pp) 2.1% (▲0.3pp)
€ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 5,117.2 -3.6% (▼0.4pp) -2.5% (▼0.8pp)
Magazines 2,226.2 -3.2% (▼0.8pp) -2.9% (▼1.1pp)
TV 4,718.1 2.9% (▲0.2pp) 4.3% (▲1.4pp)
Radio 811.4 3.2% (▼0.1pp) 1.9% (▲0.1pp)
Cinema 88.6 3.6% (▲1.0pp) 1.0% (▼1.0pp)
Outdoor 1,018.9 3.9% (▼0.2pp) 3.0% (▼0.1pp)
Internet 5,111.1 8.5% (▲0.2pp) 7.1% (▲0.2pp)
Total 19,091.5 2.0% (▼0.1pp) 2.4% (▲0.1pp)
Low inflation has resulted in real wages increasing at their fastest
pace in 20 years, while the jobless rate is an impressive 4.5% (the EU
average is 10%). However, German companies are minded towards
increasing their net savings by cutting back on investment. Lessening
demand from emerging markets may stymie industrial growth.
Major sporting events will stimulate ad expenditure growth in 2016,
particularly for television. As seen in many advanced markets, mobile
is the main source of headline internet growth, though increases in
video, social and native adspend will maintain at a macro level.
Overview

11
8
4
7
14
15
13
8
4
8
14
13
2015 2016
20.4
16.4
11.6
16.6
13.7
5.6
13.9
18.7
16.4
13.0
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
₹millions
Annual%change
Annual % change Adspend (₹ millions)
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
India
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 7.3% 7.2% (▼0.3pp) 7.5% (▼0.3pp)
CPI 5.9% 5.0% (▼1.2pp) 5.3% (▼0.8pp)
Consumer Spend 6.4% 7.1% (▲0.9pp) 7.8% (▲1.7pp)
₹ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 137,605.4 11.9% (▲0.4pp) 11.3% (▲0.5pp)
Magazines 8,525.3 4.8% (▲3.2pp) 1.3% (▲0.4pp)
TV 135,342.0 16.0% (▲0.1pp) 12.8% (▲0.7pp)
Radio 12,609.5 10.6% (▲0.2pp) 6.4% (▲0.6pp)
Cinema 2,358.4 11.2% (▲0.5pp) 9.3% (▲0.4pp)
Outdoor 21,079.0 15.7% (▲0.3pp) 9.8% (▲0.6pp)
Internet 36,158.7 40.8% (▲0.3pp) 24.5% (▲0.8pp)
Total 353,678.3 16.4% (▲0.3pp) 13.0% (▲0.6pp)
High levels of investment and a strong manufacturing sector, which
supplies some 18% towards the country’s GDP, mean India is likely to
outpace China’s economic expansion this year and next, albeit from a
smaller base. Illiteracy remains an issue for much of the population.
Mobile is nascent, as evidenced by our State of the Industry report in
September, however marketer intent is encouraging. TV digitalisation
is behind schedule and rules regulating ads per hour are being
flaunted. New measurement initiatives, chiefly for TV and outdoor,
should improve advertiser’s confidence around budget committal.
Source: TAM India; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Overview

0
-2
0
2
3 3
2
-1
1
2
1
4
2015 2016
5.0
1.1
-11.9
6.8
-2.3
-10.9
-8.2
0.7 0.8 1.8
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
€millions
Annual%change
Source: Nielsen Italia; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Advertising outlook
Italy
The economy shows signs of recovery, yet GDP is still down 10% and
industrial capacity by 25% from pre-crisis levels. Italian families are
recovering their purchasing power and optimism is returning. Export
growth lags the eurozone average by a distance. Tax evasion, which
removed an estimated 7.5% from GDP in 2015, has yet to be tackled.
TV growth is muted by a strong 2014 in which the FIFA World Cup
was held. The UEFA football championship in 2016 will negate the
losses in TV ad revenue. Online is still an attractive and cost-effective
channel despite media inflation. OOH benefits from the Milan Expo.
Economic outlook
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP -0.4% 0.7% (▲0.1pp) 1.2% (◄0.0pp)
CPI 0.2% 0.1% (◄0.0pp) 1.0% (◄0.0pp)
Consumer Spend -0.3% 0.6% (◄0.0pp) 1.0% (▲0.2pp)
€ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 810.5 -8.2% (▼0.1pp) -6.5% (▲1.1pp)
Magazines 494.7 -4.9% (▲1.2pp) -4.8% (▲0.9pp)
TV 3,510.1 -1.5% (◄0.0pp) 1.0% (▲1.0pp)
Radio 346.7 6.5% (▲7.5pp) 1.7% (▲1.3pp)
Cinema 24.0 -2.2% (▲3.6pp) -5.8% (▲4.5pp)
Outdoor 191.6 7.7% (▲4.5pp) 0.7% (▲0.6pp)
Internet 1,907.5 8.7% (▲0.2pp) 7.9% (▲1.1pp)
Total 7,285.1 0.8% (▲0.6pp) 1.8% (▲1.0pp)
Overview

0.6
-4.6
-11.8
0.0
-1.8
3.3
2.2
4.1
1.8 2.5
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
¥billions
Annual%change
Source: Dentsu; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Annual % change Adspend (¥ billion)
1 1
0 0
1
3
2
0 0 0 0
2
Media Inflation, year-on-year % change
2015 2016
Advertising outlook
Japan
¥ billions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 557.2 -2.3% (▲1.1pp) -1.4% (▲0.8pp)
Magazines 230.0 -1.9% (▼1.2pp) -0.3% (▲0.1pp)
TV 1,741.2 0.3% (▼0.6pp) 1.5% (▲0.4pp)
Radio 115.8 -1.0% (▲0.9pp) -0.2% (▼0.6pp)
Outdoor 575.2 1.8% (◄0.0pp) 1.3% (◄0.0pp)
Internet 824.5 9.2% (▲0.1pp) 8.7% (▼0.7pp)
Total 4,043.9 1.8% (▼0.1pp) 2.5% (▲0.1pp)
Japan fell into a technical recession in the second half of 2015, yet
economic output is forecast to rise this year and next, even after
allowing for inflation. Household expenditure is expected to be on a
par with 2014 levels, which were knocked by a sales tax increase.
Our revisions are minimal from July, however TV growth has been
trimmed by just over half a point, and radio raised by 0.9pp. We
believe mobile will make up just over a third of all internet adspend
in Japan by end-2015. Media inflation is expected to remain relatively
flat for most channels, although internet prices should rise a little.
Economic outlook
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP -0.1% 0.7% (▼0.1pp) 1.1% (▼0.2pp)
CPI 2.7% 0.7% (▼0.2pp) 0.8% (▼0.3pp)
Consumer Spend -1.9% -0.1% (▼0.6pp) 1.2% (▼0.2pp)
Overview

75.8
155.9
815.8
167.6
46.1
100.067.8
137.3
758.7
138.9
44.6
96.0
Television Newspapers Magazines Radio Out Of Home Internet
Source: Warc, Media Costs Database, December 2015
Cost per thousand, Adults, Rubles
2014 2015
30.2
17.9
-27.6
16.4
21.0
12.3 9.7
3.6
-13.4
0.9
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000
375,000
400,000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RUBmillions
Annual%change
Source: AKAR; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
Annual % change Adspend (RUB million)
Advertising outlook
Russia
RUB millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 19,173.0 -24.8% (▼1.9pp) -9.4% (▼0.8pp)
Magazines 19,057.5 -33.1% (▼1.5pp) -11.4% (▼1.8pp)
TV 175,780.0 -18.4% (▼2.9pp) 1.3% (▲1.7pp)
Radio 18,590.0 -20.9% (▲8.0pp) -5.9% (▲3.7pp)
Cinema 1,100.0 -32.7% (▲11.5pp) -11.3% (▲5.3pp)
Outdoor 44,660.0 -25.4% (▼0.6pp) -5.8% (▼0.9pp)
Internet 91,469.2 10.4% (▲3.7pp) 6.7% (▲0.1pp)
Total 369,829.7 -13.4% (▼0.3pp) 0.9% (▲2.0pp)
Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate but sit well below $40 a barrel.
The rouble has depreciated heavily against both the US dollar and
the Euro, while consumer prices are ballooning and household
spend falls year-on-year. Conditions will ease a little during 2016.
AKAR data for the first nine months of 2015 show severe falls for all
media, with the exception of online. Cable and satellite TV revenues
have almost halved, albeit from a small base, but terrestrial spend
also reduced by double-digits. TV and internet are both expected to
post gains in 2016. Outdoor is being threatened by new legislation.
Economic outlook
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 0.6% -3.9% (▼0.1pp) -0.3% (▼0.9pp)
CPI 7.8% 13.2% (▼1.8pp) 8.5% (▲0.7pp)
Consumer Spend 1.7% -7.7% (▼1.6pp) -0.2% (▼1.0pp)
Overview

6.3
-2.2
-11.7
9.0
3.1 2.2
3.9
6.8 6.1 5.7
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
£millions
Annual%change
Annual % change Adspend (£ million)
6
1 1 1 1 1
4
1
-1
0
1
2
2015 2016
Advertising outlook
United Kingdom
£ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 2,236.1 -9.5% (▼2.8pp) -6.5% (▼1.2pp)
Magazines 726.6 -9.3% (▼1.9pp) -5.8% (▼0.2pp)
TV 4,705.0 6.6% (▲0.3pp) 4.6% (▲0.5pp)
Radio 575.4 2.3% (▼2.0pp) 5.2% (▲0.4pp)
Cinema 202.5 5.1% (▼1.3pp) 2.3% (▼1.3pp)
Outdoor 1,019.0 3.8% (▼2.5pp) 4.8% (▲0.1pp)
Internet 7,223.1 12.8% (▲0.2pp) 10.6% (▼0.7pp)
Total 16,688 6.1% (▼0.5pp) 5.7% (▼0.3pp)
Source: AA/Warc UK Expenditure Report
Both unemployment and inflation are exceptionally low, and the
British consumer is spending more, albeit mostly on credit as real
wages rise sluggishly. Economic growth is sound yet potentially
hampered by prolonged austerity measures.
TV spot is a market stalwart and performed ahead of expectations
in Q1 2015, while the nation’s hosting of the Rugby World Cup
provided a windfall in Q3. More sporting events are being televised
by commercial broadcasters as the BBC looks to make savings.
Mobile is driving internet growth and has plenty of headroom.
Economic outlook
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 3.0% 2.6% (▲0.1pp) 2.4% (◄0.0pp)
CPI 1.5% 0.2% (▼0.1pp) 1.6% (◄0.0pp)
Consumer Spend 2.6% 2.7% (▼0.2pp) 1.5% (▼2.6pp)
Overview

0.4
-5.2
-16.0
7.3
3.1
4.9
2.4 3.1 1.9
4.9
125,000
135,000
145,000
155,000
165,000
175,000
185,000
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
$millions
Annual%change
Annual % change Adspend ($ millions)
Source: MAGNA GLOBAL; Warc, Adspend Database, December 2015
3
-1
2
0
2
0
4
-1
2
0
1 1
2015 2016
Advertising outlook
Economic outlook
USA
Yr/Yr % change 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Real GDP 2.2% 2.6% (▼0.1pp) 2.6% (▼0.3pp)
CPI 1.6% 0.2% (▼0.3pp) 1.9% (▼0.2pp)
Consumer Spend 2.5% 3.3% (▲0.3pp) 3.0% (▲0.1pp)
$ millions 2014 2015(f) 2016(f)
Newspapers 16,093.3 -12.8% (▲0.2pp) -11.3% (▲1.8pp)
Magazines 10,638.9 -14.0% (▼1.9pp) -9.4% (▲0.4pp)
TV 65,650.9 -3.4% (▼0.1pp) 4.8% (▲0.5pp)
Radio 14,806.0 -2.5% (▼1.2pp) -0.4% (▲0.5pp)
Cinema 657.0 9.3% (▲1.8pp) 3.9% (▼2.1pp)
Outdoor 6,418.3 3.1% (▲0.3pp) 2.7% (▼1.1pp)
Internet 49,454.0 18.2% (▲2.5pp) 12.7% (▼1.5pp)
Total 163,718.4 1.9% (▲0.5pp) 4.9% (◄0.0pp)
The US Federal Reserve confirmed a dovish rate rise in December.
Inflation is well below the target 2%. The economy is still rather fragile;
the manufacturing sector in particular is being hindered by a strong
US dollar. At around 5%, the US jobless rate is close to full employment.
The twin stimuli of presidential elections and Summer Olympics will
boost growth in adspend in 2016. TV revenues, recently flat or falling,
will recoup 2015 losses next year. OOH and cinema benefit from
digitalisation and better trading metrics. Over two-thirds of total internet
growth in H1 2015 was from mobile. Search is yet to stagnate.
Overview

Digital ad spends trend 2015 2016

Digital ad spends trend 2015 2016

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