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THE GLOBAL MID-YEAR REPORT
JUNE 2020
R NEXT YEA
THIS YEAR
AR NEXT YE
NEXT YEAR
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
2
GLOBAL
MID-YEAR
FORECAST
REPORT
Overview
Advertising Growth Forecasts
Key Assumptions
Impact on Media and Consumers
Digital Extensions
Media Trends
Digital Advertising
Television
Outdoor
Print
Audio
Conclusion
JUNE 2020
WPP Employees
Visit insidemedia.wpp.com/marketing.
GroupM Clients
Please speak with your account
director for the full file.
General Inquiries
Visit www.groupm.com and search
for the latest “This Year Next Year.”
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THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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OVERVIEW
To describe 2020 as a disruptive year around the world would be
an understatement. In January alone, we saw France and Hong
Kong feature significant strikes or protests, the escalation of
hostilities (again) between the United States and Iran, the U.K.
formally exited the European Union and trade policies between
many countries in severe flux. Meanwhile, the spread of
COVID-19 turned into a pandemic, leading to widespread global
actions to restrict social and economic activity in an effort to limit
the virus’ death toll. Governments also implemented massive
stimulus programs while companies and other organizations that
could continue to operate found new ways to do so.
Despite those efforts, economies around the world are expected to
be very weak this year, with declines in output typically expected
to outpace what was observed during the global financial crisis.
The consequences of the pandemic have only barely begun to play
out as we reach mid-year, not least as we have only experienced
its first wave so far. Many issues that were boiling over, or ready
to do so, before the pandemic will become amplified as the
pandemic continues. Protests for social justice in the United
States and other markets are one particularly important
illustration.
Historical events such as these are having, and will continue to
have, a profound impact on the industry as well. Companies
across a wide range of sectors reacted to the pandemic by initially
focusing on employee safety and corporate survival with cost-
cutting initiatives and by tapping into government-based liquidity
programs in many instances.
Some categories of marketers faced heightened risks, as with travel
(including airlines and hotels because of immediate elimination of
most travel around the world by mid-March), the automotive
sector (because of shut-downs of manufacturing capacity, supply
chain challenges and the probability that consumers would defer
making big purchases) and much of the entertainment industry.
Retail and food service businesses were another pair of categories
facing massive challenges, but they also were presented with
significant opportunities in having to shut down or adapt their
operating models. In many cases, retailers were able to aggressively
implement plans to integrate digital or virtual activities with
traditional undertakings. As a result, during the pandemic, there
has been a significant acceleration in e-commerce sales activity
while overall retail activity declined by historically high rates.
In April, a period when major markets generally experienced the
heights of social restrictions (except for China, which was emerging
from them), comparable retail sales fell by 16% in the U.S., 22% in
the U.K. and 8% in China. We can estimate that each market saw
an approximate 600bps/6% increase in share of retail activity
associated with e-commerce. Also, during April, China and the U.K.
generated around 30% of retail activity from e-commerce, while
the figure was closer to 20% in the U.S.
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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Many small businesses had to participate in this transition as well,
as evidenced by recent earnings results from Shopify – an e-
commerce software platform skewed toward smaller businesses –
that conveyed accelerated growth during April. However, many
other small businesses and the employees who work for them are
probably not faring so well.
Small businesses in countries around the world were already
generally losing share to larger ones and were heavily skewed
toward the industries most impacted by social distancing (i.e.
restaurants, personal services, etc.). As the OECD described
matters in a recent release, “SMEs (small and medium-sized
enterprises) are particularly at risk of failure from prolonged …
lockdown measures” and added that “SMEs account for the
bulk of employment in the most affected sectors.”
Employees who work in those sectors also likely earn significantly
less than employees in other industries. To illustrate, we looked at
U.S. Census Bureau data from the most recent Economic Census in
2017. Combined, retail trade, excluding grocery stores, building
materials stores and non-store retailers (each categories of retail
that expanded during April), alongside arts and recreation,
accommodation and food services and other services (excluding
public administration) account for 25% of employment but only
12% of payrolls. If we look at businesses in these categories with
fewer than 500 employees, workers account for 30% of all
employment. On the other hand, if we look at all businesses in
these categories with more than 500 employees, workers at these
companies only account for 21% of all employment.
The combination of these issues leads to a relatively concentrated
impact of the pandemic and helps explain why advertising is not
faring as badly as might have been expected earlier in the year.
They also help explain why pre-existing issues within societies
could be exacerbated by the crisis, heightening risks of ongoing
and expanding consequences.
REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED) GDP:
ANNUALIZED GROWTH
2009 ACTUAL 2020 FORECAST
UNITED STATES -2.5% -7.3%
CHINA +9.4% -2.6%
JAPAN -5.4% -6.0%
UNITED KINGDOM -4.3% -11.5%
GERMANY -5.7% -6.6%
FRANCE -2.9% -11.4%
BRAZIL -0.1% -7.4%
AUSTRALIA +1.9% -5.0%
CANADA -2.9% -8.0%
INDIA +7.9% -3.7%
SOURCE: 2009 Actual figures as aggregated by Refinitiv, 2020 Forecasts per OECD June 2020,
“single-hit” scenarios.
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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During 2020, we estimate that the global advertising economy
will fall by 11.8%, excluding the effects of increased political
advertising in the U.S. This is a sharp decline from the growth
rate from 2019 of 6.2% and returns the industry to slightly
higher than 2017 levels in constant currency terms.
While severe to be sure, 2020’s decline can still be considered
“modest” given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on
global GDP, which will fall by much more than it did in the
2009 global financial crisis. During that year, when GDP
declined by 1%, we estimate that global advertising fell by
11.2% in nominal terms.
Including U.S. political advertising, we estimate global
advertising will decline by 9.9% in 2020. The median market
should decline by more, or 12.2%, which in part reflects that
declines are less pronounced in the world’s top two advertising
markets, the U.S. (expected to fall 7.5% including political
advertising) and China (expected to fall 2.8%). These two
combine to account for more than half of the world’s total
advertising activity.
Among other top 10 markets from 2019, we expect to see the
following rates of decline:
• Japan: 20%
• United Kingdom: 12.5%
• Germany: 9.9%
• France: 15%
The only multi-billion-dollar market where we expect to see
real growth this year is in Indonesia, where expectations are
for 5.8% growth. Argentina is the only other market expected
to grow in nominal terms, although it should decline on an
inflation-adjusted basis.
• Canada: 5.1%
• Brazil: 29.1%
• South Korea: 1.8%
• Australia: 19%
ADVERTISING
GROWTH
FORECASTS
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2000 2005 2010 2015
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADVERTISING
2024
Source: GroupM, Refinitiv, OECD. GDP reflects GDP
for OECD and Other Large Economies Under June
2020 "Single Hit" Scenario.
Advertising (excluding U.S. Political)
GDP
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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On the other extreme, several mid-size or larger markets are
expected to decline by more than 20% this year. In addition to
Brazil, we expect such an outcome from India, the MENA
region and Spain.
Expectations for 2021 diverge somewhat given a wide range of
expectations and potential outcomes for different markets
around the world next year. In some, the economic
consequences of 2020 will outlast the discovery of a vaccine. In
others, pent-up demand is expected to over-compensate for
2020’s losses. Overall, we expect global advertising to grow by
8.2% next year on an ex-U.S. political basis, or by 5.9%
including it. The median market is expected to grow by 10%.
Looking at larger markets, we expect a 0.9% decline in the U.S.
on a basis that includes political advertising. This implicitly
reflects expectations of a relatively slow recovery there when
compared with other countries. China should grow much faster
given the degree to which the market’s underlying growth – as
measured by our refined historical data-set – was previously
relatively robust, and the degree to which that underlying
growth is expected to resume. As a result, we anticipate growth
of 9.2% for China next year. Among the top 10 markets, most
expect to see double-digit growth including Japan (15%), the
U.K. (12.6%), Germany (10.6%), Brazil (15.0%) and Australia
(25.2%). Meanwhile, Canada and South Korea anticipate low
single digit gains while France anticipates high single digit
growth during 2021.
“While severe to be sure, 2020’s decline can
still be considered ‘modest’ given the scale of
the impact of the pandemic on global GDP,
which will fall by much more than it did in the
2009 global financial crisis.”
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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KEY
ASSUMPTIONS
The full impact of the pandemic will vary widely by market this
year and beyond because of factors including the degree to
which a given territory’s government and society:
• Limited the spread of the virus upon its arrival
• Enabled “hibernation” policies for its economy
• Accepted, or otherwise adopted, practices limiting the
spread of the virus
Assessing the path forward for any given economy mirrors
challenges in assessing these factors. In our forecasts we assume
that a vaccine will be developed and distributed by some time in
the first half of next year, although even the world’s foremost
experts are hardly certain.
To the extent that this does occur, we presume that all normal
activities made particularly challenging with social distancing,
including leisure-based travel and tourism, attending events or
films with crowds, etc., will return in some form next year.
Activities such as the Olympics are assumed to occur.
Assumptions around professional sports returning vary by
market. We further presume that consumers and businesses
generally find ways to adapt most of their other activities
regardless of the course of the pandemic.
Economic activity is generally presumed to be somewhat normal
after 2022, although the scale of decline and the actions taken at
the present time will all have implications on the specific pace at
which the economy expands, let alone when we return back to
even just 2019 levels in any given market. This is, of course, a
key assumption on its own: there are a wide range of social
safety nets in different countries and the presence, or absence,
of support systems for people who will be severely impacted by
the ongoing cataclysms represent another source of risk to a
broader economic recovery.
8,090.5
4,654.0
3,031.4
2,293.5
2,280.6
1,795.6
1,091.1
1,076.5
975.6
903.9
0.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0 8,000.0 9,000.0
China
Japan
UK
Australia
Germany
India
Brazil
Italy
France
Spain
SOURCE: GroupM. (in millions)
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO 2021 GLOBAL GROWTH
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
8
IMPACT ON MEDIA
AND CONSUMERS
As consumers increased their time at home during the early
stages of the pandemic’s initial spread, we generally saw
heightened levels of consumption of media, a commensurately
rapid expansion of e-commerce activity and a subsequent
acceleration in the pace at which businesses transformed their
online and offline activities.
More specifically, we generally saw rapid growth of TV
consumption during the early parts of the crisis in essentially
every market that enacted meaningful social distancing rules.
On-demand and streaming consumption was up by substantially
more than these averages. Consumers also needed to change
their shopping patterns and many companies obliged. E-
commerce accelerated rapidly as retailers saw massive gains in
their e-commerce sales despite significant declines in broader
measures of retail activity.
While these trends are unlikely to continue at such extremes
through the remainder of the year (or the pandemic), they
illustrate changes that have occurred and, in the case of digital
activity, accelerated growth that will bring the economy’s digital
transition forward. Hybrid business models featuring purchases
online with in-store or curbside pickups will only become
significantly more common going forward.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
TV / Pro. Video Audio Newspapers
Magazines Outdoor + Cinema Digital
ADVERTISING SHARE BY MEDIUM (1999 – 2024)
SOURCE: GroupM (includes digital extensions in traditional media categories)
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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In this version of This Year, Next Year we are introducing
estimates of “digital extensions,” which refers to digital
advertising associated with traditional media. These figures are
broken out to show the degree to which traditional and digital
advertising overlap within individual media types, provide a
baseline around which digital trading concepts may be applied to
traditional media and to ensure an absence of duplication with
“pure-play” internet-based digital media owners. Organizing data
in this way reflects the integrated manner with which most
marketers look to manage their media budgets.
We also do this in order to improve the comparability of our
figures across countries, given the differing conventions for
quantifying different types of media that tend to exist around the
world. In most markets, virtually all digital advertising activity is
conventionally included in the “internet” line, although in many
others such spending is captured as part of traditional advertising.
Establishing historical estimates for digital extensions of
traditional media requires a high degree of subjectivity and, as a
result, estimates are likely to be refined over time.
On average, during 2020, digital extensions of TV, radio, print
and outdoor advertising should equate to $31 billion, or 13% of
total advertising activity, up from $22 billion, or 7%, five years
ago. We expect digital extensions to continue taking share of
traditional advertising but increase at a slower pace. Our
forecast anticipates that digital extensions equate to 16% of
advertising spending on traditional media by 2024. Digital
extensions are most pronounced in the outdoor sector, where
they account for $9 billion this year, or 31% of the total outdoor
sector’s activities. Digital extensions of traditional television
equate to $12 billion this year, 9% of that medium’s total.
DIGITAL
EXTENSIONS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
TV / Pro. Video Outdoor Audio Newspapers Magazines
Global Ad Revenue ($ in mm) % of Medium Total
SOURCE: GroupM
2020 DIGITAL EXTENSIONS
10
We calculate that during 2020,
digital advertising will have a
52% share … up from 48% in
2019 and 44% in 2018.
“ “
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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TV / Pro. Video
Digital
Outdoor + Cinema
Newspapers
Audio
Magazines
Expected Media Share, 2021
(Excluding U.S. Political Advertising Spend)
55%
26%
6%
6%
4%
3%
SOURCE: GroupM (includes digital extensions in traditional media categories)
MEDIA
TRENDS
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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Digital advertising, narrowly defined to exclude traditional media
extensions, is expected to decline by 2.4% during 2020. This
follows nearly a decade of double-digit growth, with many years
exceeding 20% at a global level. Growth should resume in 2021,
although at a more modest pace than in the past decade as many
of the drivers supporting digital advertising’s expansion should
generally decelerate.
One factor that should help support growth – and, indeed, could
contribute to faster growth than we anticipate –is e-commerce-
related activity or other forms of pandemic-accelerated digital
transformation. This trend will see a greater number of businesses
alter their broader marketing and media goals away from longer-
term brand-focused objectives and more toward goals that are
shorter-term, or more transactional in nature.
Of course, a shift toward transactional business objectives by
marketers does not mean they will abandon brands. Stronger
brands should lead to improved performance when everything
else is equal. Efforts to fine-tune available consumer data or
otherwise improve micro-targeting of media executions are
unlikely to drive as much of an impact on business outcomes as
comparable efforts to more artfully develop and express a brand’s
promises to consumers.
The other factor to consider is that media, as defined here in our
global overview, picks up on incremental deployments of
resources into media by small businesses, who primarily allocate
their spending to digital media owners because of the ease with
which they can apply their small budgets. Thus, to write that
advertisers are collectively increasing spend on digital
advertising by a given percentage does not mean that all
individual advertisers are increasing spend at this same pace.
With that caveat in mind, we calculate that, during 2020, digital
advertising will have a 54% share of media captured here, up
from 48% in 2019 and 44% in 2018. Share growth should abate
somewhat going forward, adding 1-2% each year. If we define
digital as broadly as possible to include all pure-play internet-
based media owners and the digital extensions of traditional
media, this would be more like 60% in 2020, up from 55% in
2019 and 51% in 2018. We expect share defined in this manner
to rise toward 67% by 2024.
Our new estimates also break out search from non-search digital
advertising. We estimate that search advertising will account
$109 billion in revenue during 2020, falling 2.6%. Other forms
of digital advertising that account for $169 billion (excluding
digital extensions of traditional media) will fall by less, or 2.2%
this year. Following a double digit rebound next year, growth
rates for both types of digital media should then grow by high
single digits through our model’s 2024-time horizon.
DIGITAL
ADVERTISING
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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TELEVISION
Television should retain its dominant role for large brands but
will nonetheless decline severely this year. Excluding political
advertising in the U.S., we anticipate total television advertising
declining by 17.6% in 2020 before rebounding slightly to grow
5.9% next year. Digital extensions and related media, including
advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming
activities, as well as Hulu, Roku, etc., will fare much better, with
growth of +3.7% this year and +11.4% next year. We estimate
those digital extensions will amount to around 9% of total TV
spending this year. Of note, the aforementioned declines in
available inventory – a continuation of the broad reduction in
viewing of traditional TV we saw prior to the pandemic, perhaps
exacerbated by increasing availability of non-ad-supported
streaming services – could fuel inflationary conditions.
Television’s share of advertising, if we define TV including its
digital extensions, is expected to be 26% during 2020, down
from approximately 37% at this point 10 years ago. We believe
that the typical large brand continues to allocate approximately
40% of its budget to advertising associated with premium video,
whether online or offline, a figure that has probably only
declined slightly. The lower share reflected here is due to the
inclusion of significant volumes of spending by small businesses,
primarily – if not exclusively – in digital media, which better
enables small businesses to buy ads reaching the smaller groups
of customers they service.
A potentially important assumption behind our forecasts relates
to the return of professional sports. As of mid-June, some
leagues have developed plans to resume play; however, whether
schedules will proceed as intended remains to be seen. While
some incremental advertising spending could certainly follow
from the resumption of play, the specific impact on spending is
probably limited because much of what would end up in sports
inventory would end up elsewhere if sports did not resume.
“Excluding political advertising in the U.S.,
we anticipate total TV advertising
declining by 17.6% in 2020 before
rebounding slightly to grow 5.9% next year.”
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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Other media will fare much worse than television and digital this year. Outdoor advertising and related out-of-home media, such as cinema,
accounts for $30 billion in activity during 2020, or 6% of all advertising we track here. Of this figure, $9 billion is in a digital format. With
restrictions on social activity, this medium was always set to be disproportionately impacted by the crisis, as the value proposition to
marketers looking to reach consumers away from home partially evaporated for a period of time.
Overall, we estimate declines of 25.0% including digital out-of-home media. Next year should see a partial rebound with 14.9% growth.
Of course, this assumption is particularly dependent on both the resumption of normal consumer activity in the second half of next year
alongside a rebound of advertiser spending at around the same time. Beyond 2021, we expect outdoor advertising to grow by low or mid-
single digits and generally lose share of total advertising as we track it here, although we do expect larger brands to generally increase
their allocations of budgets to the medium.
OUTDOOR
Print media, including newspapers and magazines, are expected to
account for around $49 billion in advertising this year if we include
digital budgets associated with print properties, or $40 billion
excluding them. Declines in 2020 are likely to amount to 25% as prior
high-single digit declines accelerate. This trend should generally
resume when an economic recovery occurs. Print publications in most
markets are likely to go through a vicious cycle of disinvestment in
content due to an absence of advertiser support that will then lead to
disengaged consumers and advertisers who are, in turn, further
disengaged themselves. There will be exceptions to this trend,
especially where publishers invest more aggressively in their content
offerings for consumers and their marketing solutions for advertisers.
Lastly, audio is likely to also decline by 23% during 2020,
as advertisers disinvest in part because of its association
with away-from-home activities such as driving. The
medium’s total ad revenue will equal $25 billion. However,
we note that audio’s value to marketers – often under-
appreciated – likely holds up, as relatively high levels of
listenership and reach continue to help make the medium
relatively effective. Digital extensions of the medium,
including streaming services from terrestrial stations and
their digitally oriented competitors and podcasts, remain
relatively small in the low single digit billions, but help
make the broader medium more appealing to marketers.
PRINT AUDIO
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
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CONCLUSION
Marketers can find opportunities in all this disruption and
should revisit processes for allocating spend across and within
borders. For brand-focused marketers, current circumstances
can produce opportunities for those able to sustain or expand
their budgets. Share of voice gains now will likely lead to share
of sale gains in any given category in the future and at more
attractive prices than would be the case at other points in time.
Further, budget shifts across countries, from those facing highly
negative economic trends to those less impacted, may offer
additional opportunities.
More broadly, and for marketers facing weak business
circumstances themselves, there are also opportunities to invest
in newer and more efficient ways to operate. The separation of
budgets into “working” and “non-working” spending probably
leads to misallocation of resources between product
investments, media and services, as well as data, content
production and other costs.
Those marketers looking to scrutinize costs will likely benefit
from scrutinizing how hard lines around spending can lead to
sub-optimal outcomes. For example, perhaps spending on
digital media and related services can be reduced, but spending
more on consumer insights, trading strategies,
creative/copywriting and data may produce better outcomes for
any given level of spending on media. Artificial lines that
prevent marketers from buying pairings of media and data
together rather than budgeting, pricing and paying for them
separately may be another example. Investments in e-
commerce-related product development, digital experiences
and other aspects of marketing could also be more efficient
places to allocate resources and help position a company
better for the years ahead.
Returning to the broader context in which marketers should
be assessing these numbers, it is important to remember that
industry average growth rates are simply averages. Although
“average” might be a satisfactory standard for some, we think
it is critical for all marketers to look for how to best grow their
businesses in ways that are above average, especially under
challenging economic circumstances. This will often mean
making decisions while ignoring the conventions and
benchmarks that reflect the choices of competitors who may
be going down different paths.
Instead, marketers should always start with improving their
understanding of evolving consumer and customer needs,
developing new offerings to meet those needs and investing
against new ways to transact. Marketing strategies and media
choices should follow from those efforts, which will render
averages as meaningful only after the fact, primarily as points
of reference rather than goals to aspire to.
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
GLOBAL ADVERTISING MEDIA OWNER AD
REVENUE SUMMARY
SOURCE: GroupM (includes U.S. political
advertising and digital extensions in traditional
media categories)
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
TV / Video $154,316.2 $158,756.5 $163,058.6 $163,983.8 $166,774.7 $165,161.8 $165,785.0 $164,499.5 $135,525.7 $143,475.6 $146,434.4 $149,199.9 $153,042.5
Growth 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 0.6% 1.7% -1.0% 0.4% -0.8% -17.6% 5.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6%
Share 37.8% 37.6% 37.3% 35.8% 34.5% 32.0% 30.0% 28.0% 26.2% 25.6% 25.0% 24.6% 24.2%
Audio 30,461.8 31,012.7 30,912.6 31,385.1 31,677.5 32,319.6 31,682.8 32,035.6 24,672.3 24,770.2 24,992.4 24,972.1 24,942.1
Growth 1.5% 1.8% -0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 2.0% -2.0% 1.1% -23.0% 0.4% 0.9% -0.1% -0.1%
Share 7.5% 7.4% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9%
Newspapers 77,134.1 72,431.9 67,133.8 62,140.7 56,207.2 52,142.9 47,362.3 43,699.2 32,272.0 31,795.2 29,976.0 28,080.7 26,026.3
Growth -6.4% -6.1% -7.3% -7.4% -9.5% -7.2% -9.2% -7.7% -26.1% -1.5% -5.7% -6.3% -7.3%
Share 18.9% 17.2% 15.3% 13.6% 11.6% 10.1% 8.6% 7.4% 6.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1%
Magazines 38,259.5 36,746.2 34,028.6 31,375.2 28,507.6 26,304.7 23,917.1 22,011.0 17,134.8 15,982.7 14,714.0 13,495.4 12,272.6
Growth -7.4% -4.0% -7.4% -7.8% -9.1% -7.7% -9.1% -8.0% -22.2% -6.7% -7.9% -8.3% -9.1%
Share 9.4% 8.7% 7.8% 6.8% 5.9% 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9%
Outdoor + Cinema 28,658.8 29,606.8 30,156.8 31,821.1 33,853.3 37,027.6 40,084.8 40,247.6 30,125.6 34,610.0 36,127.1 37,322.4 38,926.4
Growth 5.2% 3.3% 1.9% 5.5% 6.4% 9.4% 8.3% 0.4% -25.1% 14.9% 4.4% 3.3% 4.3%
Share 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1%
Digital 79,203.1 93,193.6 112,448.5 137,623.6 165,850.0 203,252.2 243,867.9 284,460.1 277,757.4 309,214.9 334,157.0 354,549.2 377,871.4
Growth 17.6% 17.7% 20.7% 22.4% 20.5% 22.6% 20.0% 16.6% -2.4% 11.3% 8.1% 6.1% 6.6%
Share 19.4% 22.1% 25.7% 30.0% 34.3% 39.4% 44.1% 48.5% 53.7% 55.2% 57.0% 58.4% 59.7%
Total $408,033.6 $421,747.6 $437,738.9 $458,329.5 $482,870.3 $516,208.8 $552,700.0 $586,952.9 $517,487.8 $559,848.6 $586,400.9 $607,619.7 $633,081.4
Growth 2.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 5.4% 6.9% 7.1% 6.2% -11.8% 8.2% 4.7% 3.6% 4.2%
GLOBAL ADVERTISING MEDIA OWNER AD REVENUE SUMMARY (EX-U.S. POLITICAL)
SOURCE: GroupM (excludes U.S. political advertising but includes digital extensions in traditional media categories)
THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT
17
GroupM’s This Year Next Year is published twice a year with the goal of
informing analysts and marketers of GroupM’s market observations. All rights
reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written
permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure
the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot
accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that
the data is up-to-date only to the extent that its availability, compilation and
printed schedules allowed and are subject to change.
GroupM is the world’s leading media investment company responsible for
more than $50B in annual media investment through agencies Mindshare,
MediaCom, Wavemaker, Essence and m/SIX, as well as the outcomes-driven
programmatic audience company, Xaxis. GroupM’s portfolio includes Data &
Technology, Investment and Services, all united in vision to shape the next
era of media where advertising works better for people. By leveraging all the
benefits of scale, the company innovates, differentiates and generates
sustained value for our clients wherever they do business.
Methodology: Approaches vary by market. Please contact GroupM for details.
Questions? Contact: brian.wieser@groupm.com
This Year Next Year | The Mid-Year Forecasts | June 2020
Published June 23, 2020
© GroupM Worldwide, Inc.

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Group m tyny global forecast

  • 1. THE GLOBAL MID-YEAR REPORT JUNE 2020 R NEXT YEA THIS YEAR AR NEXT YE NEXT YEAR
  • 2. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 2 GLOBAL MID-YEAR FORECAST REPORT Overview Advertising Growth Forecasts Key Assumptions Impact on Media and Consumers Digital Extensions Media Trends Digital Advertising Television Outdoor Print Audio Conclusion JUNE 2020 WPP Employees Visit insidemedia.wpp.com/marketing. GroupM Clients Please speak with your account director for the full file. General Inquiries Visit www.groupm.com and search for the latest “This Year Next Year.” 03 05 07 08 09 11 12 13 14 14 14 15
  • 3. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 3 OVERVIEW To describe 2020 as a disruptive year around the world would be an understatement. In January alone, we saw France and Hong Kong feature significant strikes or protests, the escalation of hostilities (again) between the United States and Iran, the U.K. formally exited the European Union and trade policies between many countries in severe flux. Meanwhile, the spread of COVID-19 turned into a pandemic, leading to widespread global actions to restrict social and economic activity in an effort to limit the virus’ death toll. Governments also implemented massive stimulus programs while companies and other organizations that could continue to operate found new ways to do so. Despite those efforts, economies around the world are expected to be very weak this year, with declines in output typically expected to outpace what was observed during the global financial crisis. The consequences of the pandemic have only barely begun to play out as we reach mid-year, not least as we have only experienced its first wave so far. Many issues that were boiling over, or ready to do so, before the pandemic will become amplified as the pandemic continues. Protests for social justice in the United States and other markets are one particularly important illustration. Historical events such as these are having, and will continue to have, a profound impact on the industry as well. Companies across a wide range of sectors reacted to the pandemic by initially focusing on employee safety and corporate survival with cost- cutting initiatives and by tapping into government-based liquidity programs in many instances. Some categories of marketers faced heightened risks, as with travel (including airlines and hotels because of immediate elimination of most travel around the world by mid-March), the automotive sector (because of shut-downs of manufacturing capacity, supply chain challenges and the probability that consumers would defer making big purchases) and much of the entertainment industry. Retail and food service businesses were another pair of categories facing massive challenges, but they also were presented with significant opportunities in having to shut down or adapt their operating models. In many cases, retailers were able to aggressively implement plans to integrate digital or virtual activities with traditional undertakings. As a result, during the pandemic, there has been a significant acceleration in e-commerce sales activity while overall retail activity declined by historically high rates. In April, a period when major markets generally experienced the heights of social restrictions (except for China, which was emerging from them), comparable retail sales fell by 16% in the U.S., 22% in the U.K. and 8% in China. We can estimate that each market saw an approximate 600bps/6% increase in share of retail activity associated with e-commerce. Also, during April, China and the U.K. generated around 30% of retail activity from e-commerce, while the figure was closer to 20% in the U.S.
  • 4. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 4 Many small businesses had to participate in this transition as well, as evidenced by recent earnings results from Shopify – an e- commerce software platform skewed toward smaller businesses – that conveyed accelerated growth during April. However, many other small businesses and the employees who work for them are probably not faring so well. Small businesses in countries around the world were already generally losing share to larger ones and were heavily skewed toward the industries most impacted by social distancing (i.e. restaurants, personal services, etc.). As the OECD described matters in a recent release, “SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) are particularly at risk of failure from prolonged … lockdown measures” and added that “SMEs account for the bulk of employment in the most affected sectors.” Employees who work in those sectors also likely earn significantly less than employees in other industries. To illustrate, we looked at U.S. Census Bureau data from the most recent Economic Census in 2017. Combined, retail trade, excluding grocery stores, building materials stores and non-store retailers (each categories of retail that expanded during April), alongside arts and recreation, accommodation and food services and other services (excluding public administration) account for 25% of employment but only 12% of payrolls. If we look at businesses in these categories with fewer than 500 employees, workers account for 30% of all employment. On the other hand, if we look at all businesses in these categories with more than 500 employees, workers at these companies only account for 21% of all employment. The combination of these issues leads to a relatively concentrated impact of the pandemic and helps explain why advertising is not faring as badly as might have been expected earlier in the year. They also help explain why pre-existing issues within societies could be exacerbated by the crisis, heightening risks of ongoing and expanding consequences. REAL (INFLATION-ADJUSTED) GDP: ANNUALIZED GROWTH 2009 ACTUAL 2020 FORECAST UNITED STATES -2.5% -7.3% CHINA +9.4% -2.6% JAPAN -5.4% -6.0% UNITED KINGDOM -4.3% -11.5% GERMANY -5.7% -6.6% FRANCE -2.9% -11.4% BRAZIL -0.1% -7.4% AUSTRALIA +1.9% -5.0% CANADA -2.9% -8.0% INDIA +7.9% -3.7% SOURCE: 2009 Actual figures as aggregated by Refinitiv, 2020 Forecasts per OECD June 2020, “single-hit” scenarios.
  • 5. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 5 During 2020, we estimate that the global advertising economy will fall by 11.8%, excluding the effects of increased political advertising in the U.S. This is a sharp decline from the growth rate from 2019 of 6.2% and returns the industry to slightly higher than 2017 levels in constant currency terms. While severe to be sure, 2020’s decline can still be considered “modest” given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on global GDP, which will fall by much more than it did in the 2009 global financial crisis. During that year, when GDP declined by 1%, we estimate that global advertising fell by 11.2% in nominal terms. Including U.S. political advertising, we estimate global advertising will decline by 9.9% in 2020. The median market should decline by more, or 12.2%, which in part reflects that declines are less pronounced in the world’s top two advertising markets, the U.S. (expected to fall 7.5% including political advertising) and China (expected to fall 2.8%). These two combine to account for more than half of the world’s total advertising activity. Among other top 10 markets from 2019, we expect to see the following rates of decline: • Japan: 20% • United Kingdom: 12.5% • Germany: 9.9% • France: 15% The only multi-billion-dollar market where we expect to see real growth this year is in Indonesia, where expectations are for 5.8% growth. Argentina is the only other market expected to grow in nominal terms, although it should decline on an inflation-adjusted basis. • Canada: 5.1% • Brazil: 29.1% • South Korea: 1.8% • Australia: 19% ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADVERTISING 2024 Source: GroupM, Refinitiv, OECD. GDP reflects GDP for OECD and Other Large Economies Under June 2020 "Single Hit" Scenario. Advertising (excluding U.S. Political) GDP
  • 6. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 6 On the other extreme, several mid-size or larger markets are expected to decline by more than 20% this year. In addition to Brazil, we expect such an outcome from India, the MENA region and Spain. Expectations for 2021 diverge somewhat given a wide range of expectations and potential outcomes for different markets around the world next year. In some, the economic consequences of 2020 will outlast the discovery of a vaccine. In others, pent-up demand is expected to over-compensate for 2020’s losses. Overall, we expect global advertising to grow by 8.2% next year on an ex-U.S. political basis, or by 5.9% including it. The median market is expected to grow by 10%. Looking at larger markets, we expect a 0.9% decline in the U.S. on a basis that includes political advertising. This implicitly reflects expectations of a relatively slow recovery there when compared with other countries. China should grow much faster given the degree to which the market’s underlying growth – as measured by our refined historical data-set – was previously relatively robust, and the degree to which that underlying growth is expected to resume. As a result, we anticipate growth of 9.2% for China next year. Among the top 10 markets, most expect to see double-digit growth including Japan (15%), the U.K. (12.6%), Germany (10.6%), Brazil (15.0%) and Australia (25.2%). Meanwhile, Canada and South Korea anticipate low single digit gains while France anticipates high single digit growth during 2021. “While severe to be sure, 2020’s decline can still be considered ‘modest’ given the scale of the impact of the pandemic on global GDP, which will fall by much more than it did in the 2009 global financial crisis.”
  • 7. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 7 KEY ASSUMPTIONS The full impact of the pandemic will vary widely by market this year and beyond because of factors including the degree to which a given territory’s government and society: • Limited the spread of the virus upon its arrival • Enabled “hibernation” policies for its economy • Accepted, or otherwise adopted, practices limiting the spread of the virus Assessing the path forward for any given economy mirrors challenges in assessing these factors. In our forecasts we assume that a vaccine will be developed and distributed by some time in the first half of next year, although even the world’s foremost experts are hardly certain. To the extent that this does occur, we presume that all normal activities made particularly challenging with social distancing, including leisure-based travel and tourism, attending events or films with crowds, etc., will return in some form next year. Activities such as the Olympics are assumed to occur. Assumptions around professional sports returning vary by market. We further presume that consumers and businesses generally find ways to adapt most of their other activities regardless of the course of the pandemic. Economic activity is generally presumed to be somewhat normal after 2022, although the scale of decline and the actions taken at the present time will all have implications on the specific pace at which the economy expands, let alone when we return back to even just 2019 levels in any given market. This is, of course, a key assumption on its own: there are a wide range of social safety nets in different countries and the presence, or absence, of support systems for people who will be severely impacted by the ongoing cataclysms represent another source of risk to a broader economic recovery. 8,090.5 4,654.0 3,031.4 2,293.5 2,280.6 1,795.6 1,091.1 1,076.5 975.6 903.9 0.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0 8,000.0 9,000.0 China Japan UK Australia Germany India Brazil Italy France Spain SOURCE: GroupM. (in millions) TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO 2021 GLOBAL GROWTH
  • 8. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 8 IMPACT ON MEDIA AND CONSUMERS As consumers increased their time at home during the early stages of the pandemic’s initial spread, we generally saw heightened levels of consumption of media, a commensurately rapid expansion of e-commerce activity and a subsequent acceleration in the pace at which businesses transformed their online and offline activities. More specifically, we generally saw rapid growth of TV consumption during the early parts of the crisis in essentially every market that enacted meaningful social distancing rules. On-demand and streaming consumption was up by substantially more than these averages. Consumers also needed to change their shopping patterns and many companies obliged. E- commerce accelerated rapidly as retailers saw massive gains in their e-commerce sales despite significant declines in broader measures of retail activity. While these trends are unlikely to continue at such extremes through the remainder of the year (or the pandemic), they illustrate changes that have occurred and, in the case of digital activity, accelerated growth that will bring the economy’s digital transition forward. Hybrid business models featuring purchases online with in-store or curbside pickups will only become significantly more common going forward. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TV / Pro. Video Audio Newspapers Magazines Outdoor + Cinema Digital ADVERTISING SHARE BY MEDIUM (1999 – 2024) SOURCE: GroupM (includes digital extensions in traditional media categories)
  • 9. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 9 In this version of This Year, Next Year we are introducing estimates of “digital extensions,” which refers to digital advertising associated with traditional media. These figures are broken out to show the degree to which traditional and digital advertising overlap within individual media types, provide a baseline around which digital trading concepts may be applied to traditional media and to ensure an absence of duplication with “pure-play” internet-based digital media owners. Organizing data in this way reflects the integrated manner with which most marketers look to manage their media budgets. We also do this in order to improve the comparability of our figures across countries, given the differing conventions for quantifying different types of media that tend to exist around the world. In most markets, virtually all digital advertising activity is conventionally included in the “internet” line, although in many others such spending is captured as part of traditional advertising. Establishing historical estimates for digital extensions of traditional media requires a high degree of subjectivity and, as a result, estimates are likely to be refined over time. On average, during 2020, digital extensions of TV, radio, print and outdoor advertising should equate to $31 billion, or 13% of total advertising activity, up from $22 billion, or 7%, five years ago. We expect digital extensions to continue taking share of traditional advertising but increase at a slower pace. Our forecast anticipates that digital extensions equate to 16% of advertising spending on traditional media by 2024. Digital extensions are most pronounced in the outdoor sector, where they account for $9 billion this year, or 31% of the total outdoor sector’s activities. Digital extensions of traditional television equate to $12 billion this year, 9% of that medium’s total. DIGITAL EXTENSIONS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 TV / Pro. Video Outdoor Audio Newspapers Magazines Global Ad Revenue ($ in mm) % of Medium Total SOURCE: GroupM 2020 DIGITAL EXTENSIONS
  • 10. 10 We calculate that during 2020, digital advertising will have a 52% share … up from 48% in 2019 and 44% in 2018. “ “
  • 11. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 11 TV / Pro. Video Digital Outdoor + Cinema Newspapers Audio Magazines Expected Media Share, 2021 (Excluding U.S. Political Advertising Spend) 55% 26% 6% 6% 4% 3% SOURCE: GroupM (includes digital extensions in traditional media categories) MEDIA TRENDS
  • 12. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 12 Digital advertising, narrowly defined to exclude traditional media extensions, is expected to decline by 2.4% during 2020. This follows nearly a decade of double-digit growth, with many years exceeding 20% at a global level. Growth should resume in 2021, although at a more modest pace than in the past decade as many of the drivers supporting digital advertising’s expansion should generally decelerate. One factor that should help support growth – and, indeed, could contribute to faster growth than we anticipate –is e-commerce- related activity or other forms of pandemic-accelerated digital transformation. This trend will see a greater number of businesses alter their broader marketing and media goals away from longer- term brand-focused objectives and more toward goals that are shorter-term, or more transactional in nature. Of course, a shift toward transactional business objectives by marketers does not mean they will abandon brands. Stronger brands should lead to improved performance when everything else is equal. Efforts to fine-tune available consumer data or otherwise improve micro-targeting of media executions are unlikely to drive as much of an impact on business outcomes as comparable efforts to more artfully develop and express a brand’s promises to consumers. The other factor to consider is that media, as defined here in our global overview, picks up on incremental deployments of resources into media by small businesses, who primarily allocate their spending to digital media owners because of the ease with which they can apply their small budgets. Thus, to write that advertisers are collectively increasing spend on digital advertising by a given percentage does not mean that all individual advertisers are increasing spend at this same pace. With that caveat in mind, we calculate that, during 2020, digital advertising will have a 54% share of media captured here, up from 48% in 2019 and 44% in 2018. Share growth should abate somewhat going forward, adding 1-2% each year. If we define digital as broadly as possible to include all pure-play internet- based media owners and the digital extensions of traditional media, this would be more like 60% in 2020, up from 55% in 2019 and 51% in 2018. We expect share defined in this manner to rise toward 67% by 2024. Our new estimates also break out search from non-search digital advertising. We estimate that search advertising will account $109 billion in revenue during 2020, falling 2.6%. Other forms of digital advertising that account for $169 billion (excluding digital extensions of traditional media) will fall by less, or 2.2% this year. Following a double digit rebound next year, growth rates for both types of digital media should then grow by high single digits through our model’s 2024-time horizon. DIGITAL ADVERTISING
  • 13. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 13 TELEVISION Television should retain its dominant role for large brands but will nonetheless decline severely this year. Excluding political advertising in the U.S., we anticipate total television advertising declining by 17.6% in 2020 before rebounding slightly to grow 5.9% next year. Digital extensions and related media, including advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming activities, as well as Hulu, Roku, etc., will fare much better, with growth of +3.7% this year and +11.4% next year. We estimate those digital extensions will amount to around 9% of total TV spending this year. Of note, the aforementioned declines in available inventory – a continuation of the broad reduction in viewing of traditional TV we saw prior to the pandemic, perhaps exacerbated by increasing availability of non-ad-supported streaming services – could fuel inflationary conditions. Television’s share of advertising, if we define TV including its digital extensions, is expected to be 26% during 2020, down from approximately 37% at this point 10 years ago. We believe that the typical large brand continues to allocate approximately 40% of its budget to advertising associated with premium video, whether online or offline, a figure that has probably only declined slightly. The lower share reflected here is due to the inclusion of significant volumes of spending by small businesses, primarily – if not exclusively – in digital media, which better enables small businesses to buy ads reaching the smaller groups of customers they service. A potentially important assumption behind our forecasts relates to the return of professional sports. As of mid-June, some leagues have developed plans to resume play; however, whether schedules will proceed as intended remains to be seen. While some incremental advertising spending could certainly follow from the resumption of play, the specific impact on spending is probably limited because much of what would end up in sports inventory would end up elsewhere if sports did not resume. “Excluding political advertising in the U.S., we anticipate total TV advertising declining by 17.6% in 2020 before rebounding slightly to grow 5.9% next year.”
  • 14. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 14 Other media will fare much worse than television and digital this year. Outdoor advertising and related out-of-home media, such as cinema, accounts for $30 billion in activity during 2020, or 6% of all advertising we track here. Of this figure, $9 billion is in a digital format. With restrictions on social activity, this medium was always set to be disproportionately impacted by the crisis, as the value proposition to marketers looking to reach consumers away from home partially evaporated for a period of time. Overall, we estimate declines of 25.0% including digital out-of-home media. Next year should see a partial rebound with 14.9% growth. Of course, this assumption is particularly dependent on both the resumption of normal consumer activity in the second half of next year alongside a rebound of advertiser spending at around the same time. Beyond 2021, we expect outdoor advertising to grow by low or mid- single digits and generally lose share of total advertising as we track it here, although we do expect larger brands to generally increase their allocations of budgets to the medium. OUTDOOR Print media, including newspapers and magazines, are expected to account for around $49 billion in advertising this year if we include digital budgets associated with print properties, or $40 billion excluding them. Declines in 2020 are likely to amount to 25% as prior high-single digit declines accelerate. This trend should generally resume when an economic recovery occurs. Print publications in most markets are likely to go through a vicious cycle of disinvestment in content due to an absence of advertiser support that will then lead to disengaged consumers and advertisers who are, in turn, further disengaged themselves. There will be exceptions to this trend, especially where publishers invest more aggressively in their content offerings for consumers and their marketing solutions for advertisers. Lastly, audio is likely to also decline by 23% during 2020, as advertisers disinvest in part because of its association with away-from-home activities such as driving. The medium’s total ad revenue will equal $25 billion. However, we note that audio’s value to marketers – often under- appreciated – likely holds up, as relatively high levels of listenership and reach continue to help make the medium relatively effective. Digital extensions of the medium, including streaming services from terrestrial stations and their digitally oriented competitors and podcasts, remain relatively small in the low single digit billions, but help make the broader medium more appealing to marketers. PRINT AUDIO
  • 15. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 15 CONCLUSION Marketers can find opportunities in all this disruption and should revisit processes for allocating spend across and within borders. For brand-focused marketers, current circumstances can produce opportunities for those able to sustain or expand their budgets. Share of voice gains now will likely lead to share of sale gains in any given category in the future and at more attractive prices than would be the case at other points in time. Further, budget shifts across countries, from those facing highly negative economic trends to those less impacted, may offer additional opportunities. More broadly, and for marketers facing weak business circumstances themselves, there are also opportunities to invest in newer and more efficient ways to operate. The separation of budgets into “working” and “non-working” spending probably leads to misallocation of resources between product investments, media and services, as well as data, content production and other costs. Those marketers looking to scrutinize costs will likely benefit from scrutinizing how hard lines around spending can lead to sub-optimal outcomes. For example, perhaps spending on digital media and related services can be reduced, but spending more on consumer insights, trading strategies, creative/copywriting and data may produce better outcomes for any given level of spending on media. Artificial lines that prevent marketers from buying pairings of media and data together rather than budgeting, pricing and paying for them separately may be another example. Investments in e- commerce-related product development, digital experiences and other aspects of marketing could also be more efficient places to allocate resources and help position a company better for the years ahead. Returning to the broader context in which marketers should be assessing these numbers, it is important to remember that industry average growth rates are simply averages. Although “average” might be a satisfactory standard for some, we think it is critical for all marketers to look for how to best grow their businesses in ways that are above average, especially under challenging economic circumstances. This will often mean making decisions while ignoring the conventions and benchmarks that reflect the choices of competitors who may be going down different paths. Instead, marketers should always start with improving their understanding of evolving consumer and customer needs, developing new offerings to meet those needs and investing against new ways to transact. Marketing strategies and media choices should follow from those efforts, which will render averages as meaningful only after the fact, primarily as points of reference rather than goals to aspire to.
  • 16. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT GLOBAL ADVERTISING MEDIA OWNER AD REVENUE SUMMARY SOURCE: GroupM (includes U.S. political advertising and digital extensions in traditional media categories) 16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TV / Video $154,316.2 $158,756.5 $163,058.6 $163,983.8 $166,774.7 $165,161.8 $165,785.0 $164,499.5 $135,525.7 $143,475.6 $146,434.4 $149,199.9 $153,042.5 Growth 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 0.6% 1.7% -1.0% 0.4% -0.8% -17.6% 5.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% Share 37.8% 37.6% 37.3% 35.8% 34.5% 32.0% 30.0% 28.0% 26.2% 25.6% 25.0% 24.6% 24.2% Audio 30,461.8 31,012.7 30,912.6 31,385.1 31,677.5 32,319.6 31,682.8 32,035.6 24,672.3 24,770.2 24,992.4 24,972.1 24,942.1 Growth 1.5% 1.8% -0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 2.0% -2.0% 1.1% -23.0% 0.4% 0.9% -0.1% -0.1% Share 7.5% 7.4% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 4.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% Newspapers 77,134.1 72,431.9 67,133.8 62,140.7 56,207.2 52,142.9 47,362.3 43,699.2 32,272.0 31,795.2 29,976.0 28,080.7 26,026.3 Growth -6.4% -6.1% -7.3% -7.4% -9.5% -7.2% -9.2% -7.7% -26.1% -1.5% -5.7% -6.3% -7.3% Share 18.9% 17.2% 15.3% 13.6% 11.6% 10.1% 8.6% 7.4% 6.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% Magazines 38,259.5 36,746.2 34,028.6 31,375.2 28,507.6 26,304.7 23,917.1 22,011.0 17,134.8 15,982.7 14,714.0 13,495.4 12,272.6 Growth -7.4% -4.0% -7.4% -7.8% -9.1% -7.7% -9.1% -8.0% -22.2% -6.7% -7.9% -8.3% -9.1% Share 9.4% 8.7% 7.8% 6.8% 5.9% 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% Outdoor + Cinema 28,658.8 29,606.8 30,156.8 31,821.1 33,853.3 37,027.6 40,084.8 40,247.6 30,125.6 34,610.0 36,127.1 37,322.4 38,926.4 Growth 5.2% 3.3% 1.9% 5.5% 6.4% 9.4% 8.3% 0.4% -25.1% 14.9% 4.4% 3.3% 4.3% Share 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% Digital 79,203.1 93,193.6 112,448.5 137,623.6 165,850.0 203,252.2 243,867.9 284,460.1 277,757.4 309,214.9 334,157.0 354,549.2 377,871.4 Growth 17.6% 17.7% 20.7% 22.4% 20.5% 22.6% 20.0% 16.6% -2.4% 11.3% 8.1% 6.1% 6.6% Share 19.4% 22.1% 25.7% 30.0% 34.3% 39.4% 44.1% 48.5% 53.7% 55.2% 57.0% 58.4% 59.7% Total $408,033.6 $421,747.6 $437,738.9 $458,329.5 $482,870.3 $516,208.8 $552,700.0 $586,952.9 $517,487.8 $559,848.6 $586,400.9 $607,619.7 $633,081.4 Growth 2.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 5.4% 6.9% 7.1% 6.2% -11.8% 8.2% 4.7% 3.6% 4.2% GLOBAL ADVERTISING MEDIA OWNER AD REVENUE SUMMARY (EX-U.S. POLITICAL) SOURCE: GroupM (excludes U.S. political advertising but includes digital extensions in traditional media categories)
  • 17. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | THE MID-YEAR REPORT 17 GroupM’s This Year Next Year is published twice a year with the goal of informing analysts and marketers of GroupM’s market observations. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability in respect of errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data is up-to-date only to the extent that its availability, compilation and printed schedules allowed and are subject to change. GroupM is the world’s leading media investment company responsible for more than $50B in annual media investment through agencies Mindshare, MediaCom, Wavemaker, Essence and m/SIX, as well as the outcomes-driven programmatic audience company, Xaxis. GroupM’s portfolio includes Data & Technology, Investment and Services, all united in vision to shape the next era of media where advertising works better for people. By leveraging all the benefits of scale, the company innovates, differentiates and generates sustained value for our clients wherever they do business. Methodology: Approaches vary by market. Please contact GroupM for details. Questions? Contact: brian.wieser@groupm.com This Year Next Year | The Mid-Year Forecasts | June 2020 Published June 23, 2020 © GroupM Worldwide, Inc.