beer sales

1. LONG FORM VS SHORT
FORM SPOTS IMPACT
IN SALES

2. Sales of Beer
Beer remained the most consumed alcoholic
drink in Romania due to long-standing
consumption habits, the popularity of domestic
brands and strong activity by international
players.
Total volume sales continued to grow in the
year before the pandemic, although more
slowly than any time in the last five years.
Lost seasonal sales and the closure of
HORECA outlets lead to a sharp fall in
on-trade beer volumes due to COVID-19 in
2020.
Total volume sales of beer expected to surpass
1.9 billion liters by 2025.
Forecast
Total Volume – million liters 2015 – 2025
1.9 billion liters in 2025
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total Volume Million Litres
Source: © Euromonitor International, internal estimates; Data: sold beer volume – million litres

3. Growth Performance
by Category
Non alcoholic beer, previously boosted by the
launch of various fruit-flavoured products, was
the most dynamic category in 2019 in total
volume growth terms, further underlining the
wide-reaching popularity of beer as many
consumers’ drink of choice.
Standard lager continued to account for the
vast majority of beer sales by total volume in
2019, with all of the main domestic and
international brands represented.
Beer is expected to record low total volume
growth for the forecast period as a whole, with
non alcoholic beer and dark offering the best
prospects for total volume growth.
Non/Low
Alcohol Beer
Flavored Lager
Lager
Dark Beer
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
% CAGR 2014-2025
14.8% CAGR 2019-2025 for non alcoholic beer
CAGR 2019-2025 CAGR 2014-2019
2019
Source: © Euromonitor International, internal estimates; Data: percentages

4. Seasonal Beer Consumption vs
TV Investment
The beer market continues to grow in the pre
pandemic year as well, but it decelerates by
one percentage point along with the TV
investment, which decreased in volume by 21%
The strongly seasonal nature of beer sales
(almost 40% taken place is summer), along
with the strong association between beer
consumption and sporting events, many of
which were cancelled in 2020, had a
deleterious effect on on-trade volumes for a
large part of spring and summer 2020.
Total volume sales of beer had a compound
annual growth rate between 2015 and 2019 of
1.2%, followed by an almost 16% decrease last
year. The market is expected to fully recover
(compared to 2019) in 2022, having a robust
YOY increase.
3%
2017 2018 2019 2020
2% 1%
-16%
Beer million liters & TV 30” GRPs 2017 - 2020
>25% less YOY sales on April-May 2020 vs 2019
Total sales Total invested GRP
% YOY Volume Market Dynamics
Source: © Market Vector, Kantar Media, internal estimates;
Data: million liters & Invested GRPs; percentage Y-O-Y market volume growth
Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20

5. Sales Dynamics vs TV Investment
Index by Brand Owner
In 2020, the market leader increased its airtime
by 65% compared to 2019 and this led to an
increase of share of voice in category from 15%
to more than 24%.
The investment increase was among the main
reasons for the market share increase of 1.8 p.p.
compared to 2019, representing more than 77%
of the two main competitors’ loss.
Market Share 2020 – 2019 Dynamic vs TV GRP 2020
vs 2019 Investment
2020 vs 2019 Market Share Dynamic YOY TV GRP Investment
-1.5 p
-39%
0,3 p
-27%
1,8 p
65%
Market leader
6%
-0,9p
-0,0 p
Source: © Market Vector & Kantar Media ;
Data: % Y-O-Y GRP 30” Dynamic 2020-2019 & Market Share 2020
-60% -2,0 p,p,
-1,5 p,p,
-1,0 p,p,
-0,5 p,p,
-0,0 p,p,
0,5 p,p,
1,0 p,p,
1,5 p,p,
2,0 p,p,
2,5 p,p,
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
%
YOY
GRP
Investment
40%
60%
80%
-24%

6. Most brands decreased their TV investments in
2020 while loosing market share.
The only brands that decreased their TV
investment and increased their market share
compared to 2019 are brands with less than 3%
market share.
The market leader increased its TV spending
volume by 35% compared to prior year and
manages to decrease by half of the market
average.
Fourth place on the market last year increased
its TV spending by 56% compared to prior year
and manages to gain 2 p.p. in market share
becoming third player.
Sales Performance vs
TV Investment by Brand
% YOY GRP 30” Growth 2020-2019 & Market Share 2020
0%
-10%
-30%
-50%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Market Share YOY % Change
2020 vs 2019
Average % YOY
Market Dynamic
GRP
30”
2020
vs
2019
Source: © Market Vector; Data: % Y-O-Y 30”GRP TV Investment 2020-2019 & Market Share
YOY % Change 2020 vs 2019; bubble size = % market share in 2020
Increase TV Investment
Lost more market share than average
Increase TV Investment
Lost less than average or
gained market share
Decrease TV Investment
Lost less than average or gained
market share
Decrease TV Investment
Lost more market share than average

7. TV Investment by
Length of the Spots
The short spots gained in share in the last years
as the TV channels were sold out.
The maximum weight is reached in 2019, when
the equivalent GRPs brought by the short spots
of advertisers in the beer sector represented
almost one quarter of the entire industry spend.
In 2020 the short spots lost momentum, once
the SOR of the TV channels decreased as
some advertisers temporarily reduced their
communication in summer.
The all time peak in short form of the spots
weight was reached in March 2020: 42%. In the
third quarter, the weight in audience of the
short spots returned to pre-pandemic levels:
22%.
Short Spots Long Spots
2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
30” GRP weight in total sector communication
2018 2019 2020
Source: © Kantar Media ; Data: GRP30” in commercial target % weight; Short Spot < 15 Seconds

8. Spot Type Influence on Volume
Sales Methodology
In the analysis we used four years of monthly
sold volume data by brand provided by Market
Vector.
First we remove the handling variation effect
on the volume sales by keeping the base year
level constant. In the same step we removed
the influence of different number of weeks
allocated to each month, smoothing each
month to 4 weeks.
We fit a trend line to the data using least
squares regression and detrended the series.
The seasonal effect was removed by using the
lag-12 differencing operator.
We split the TV campaigns by length for each
brand in Top 20 by market share and
computed the monthly GRP 30” spent for each
spot length.
We fit a an advertising adstock transformation
using a third degree polynomial equation so
that we maximize the correlation between TV
investment and sold volume.
We computed lag-1 differencing operator for
the adstock transformation in order to be able
to fuse both the investment series and sales
data.

9. Spot Type Influence on Volume
Sales Findings
We used least squares regression to fit a
generalized linear model and compute the
influence of the TV investment in sales
variation.
As expected, the TV investment alone explains
less than 10% of the total variation of the sales
(the rest coming from promotions and other
types of media investment).
From ROI perspective the SHORT spots
are by 20% more efficient than Long
spots 13.4
Short Long
27.1
Avg Duration Sales Influence
0
0
The campaigns using long spots are by 1.68 more
efficient than the ones using short spots
The average length for the long spots is
higher by 2.0 times than the average
length of the short spots.

10. THANK YOU