First report of COVID-19 Observatory Nigeria Preliminary results of a baseline survey discussing the impact of COVID-19 and the lockdown in 6 communities in Lagos

1. IMPACT OF COVID-19 AND LOCKDOWN IN LAGOS
PRELIMINARY RESULTS – BASELINE SURVEY
An initiative
supported by

2. WHAT WE DO
Tracking the effects of COVID-19 2020 crisis and guiding relevant interventions to
react to the unprecedented changes on health, livelihoods, business and politics
in Nigeria
.
COMPONENT 4 - KNOWLEDGE CENTER
COMPONENT 1 - IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES COMPONENT 2 - IMPACT ON VALUE CHAINS
COMPONENT 3 - INTERVENTIONS ANALYSIS
Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 crisis on various communities
Focusing health, housing, employment, food, mobility, water, power
and sanitation
Tracking changes during and after COVID-19 crisis.
Limited baseline Expansion Tracking
- Setting up
methodologies,
teams & samples
- Focusing on key
components
(food, logistics…)
LAGOS:
- 6 communities
LAGOS:
- 20 communities
- All LGAs
- Refresh and
tracking post 1-2-3
months
LAGOS
ABUJA
KANO
Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on key value chains: Food;
Logistics & Distribution; Water, Power & Sanitation; Mobility, Banking;
SMEs in general
Monitoring and analysing public and private sector reactions and
interventions.
Identifying optimization avenues.
Aggregating knowledge, facts, stakeholders and timelines.

3. PRELIMINARY RESULTS - BASELINE SURVEY
Health and socio-economic impact in Lagos.
COMPONENT 1:
Monitoring changes in
communities
- Health awareness,
practices and access
- Socio-economic
aspects
Isale Akoka
Makoko /
Sogunro
Sagbo Nkoji
Ijeromi Ifelodun
Ijora
Oreta /
Offin
.
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Methodology:
On ground mobilization before and
during the lock-down
On site and phone surveys
Various tests and double checks
performed to validate data quality
Limited sample size:
These results are drawn from a limited
sample (Health – 100, Socio Eco – 93),
and should thus be interpreted with
caution.
A final report based on larger and
representative samples will be shared
subsequently.
Preliminary dataset collected
between March 30rd - April 5th
2020

4. Key take-aways
Various feedbacks and potential intervention areas
• Important and rapid deterioration of the job market, which
started before the lock down (57% unemployed, 92%
unemployed or with limited Revenue)
• Overall revenue structure that did and does not allow any
lockdown preparation (60% with no, daily or by task revenue)
• Very limited food stocks (80% under 2-3 days)
• Expressed inability to sustain financially the lockdown, in
particular a 4 weeks lock down (59% “cannot”)
• Potentially under reported middle term issues (continuous
access to housing, power and water),
• Relatively high alignment with Government’s response
• Expressed willingness to abide by self-isolation directives
• Optimistic long term opinion
• Focus on food and logistics
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS
SOME
OBSERVATIONS
POTENTIAL
INTERVENTION
AREAS
• Limited vulnerability perception (52% say they are not at
risk),
• Potential risk in malaria self-misdiagnosis,
• Radio as the main awareness channel,
• Use of sanitizers and masks limited by access (50-66%) and
cost (17-20%),
• Limited contact with health facilities (45%), and poor access
due to distance (50%+ under WHO recommendations),
• A potential of 150,000 60+ year old people at risk in Lagos
only.
• High awareness of COVID-19 (100%) and limited suspicion
concerning its existence (4-10%),
• High awareness of symptoms and most appropriate
prevention and treatment measures,
• Relatively high expressed use of sanitizers (50%) and masks
(33%),
• Relatively high expressed application of self-isolation and
distancing measures (51%-98%).
HEALTH AWARENESS AND PRACTICES
92% report being unemployed, or with limited revenue
78% report less than 2 days food stocks
52% think they are not at risk of contamination150,000 60+ people potentially at risk in Lagos only
20% not confident with housing at 1 one month horizon
59% cannot sustain a 4-weeks lockdown

5. SOCIO ECONOMIC IMPACT
Preliminary results

6. 36%
38%
26%
8%
35%
31%
26%
Initial respondents’ activity Recent changes in respondent’s activity Initial revenue structure
When did the change occur ?
33%
9%
35%
26%
28%
55%
15%
Rapid deterioration of the job market
o Unemployment & equivalent reaching 57%
o Partial employment increasing by 35%
o Only 8% do not feel yet the impact
The initial revenue structure did not allow for
savings and pragmatic purchases before the
lock down, with 61% respondents earning
either no revenue either salaries per day or task
Self-employed
Employee
Non-
employed
Non-
employed
“Fired”
“Sent home”
”No more
work/revenue”
”Partial employment”
“Less revenue/work”
“Salary postponed”
“No negative change”
Monthly
revenue
Weekly
revenue
Daily/
by task
Employment & Revenue
Rapid deterioration of the job market, impossible preparation due to revenue structure
Lock down
W-1 W0
Analysis
Perceived employment and revenue changes appeared
o In majority (82%) just before the lock down
o 27% at least 1 week before the lock down, supposing the impact not only of the expected lock down
but also of the international economic & oil crisis
47
92 4798
Non-
employed

7. Staying home
Expressed will to abide by Government’s directives, but probably for a limited time
57%
37%
6%
Will you respect the lock down? Can you afford staying home and at least in your neighbourhood…
41%
38%
22%
How much foods stocks do you have? Analysis
2 Weeks
0 days 2 days
Yes and will only will
leave my house in
case of emergency
No
Yes but will
hangout in the
neighbourhood
o 57% of respondents say they will respect strictly
the lock down
o 94% will respect the lock down but will still go
out in their neighbourhood
78% respondents consider they have less than 2-3 days of food stocks home
o Staying home 2 weeks is feasible but
already considered a sacrifice by 84%
o Staying home 4 weeks considered
impossible by 59%
93
92
4 Weeks
62%
22%
34%
7%
16%
59%
Yes but hardly
63 91
Yes I cannot

8. 71% 70%
59%
35%
23%
18%
14% 13% 11%
8% 8%
74% 76%
56%
33%
26%
18% 18% 17% 17%
12%
9%
55%
25%
16%
4%
Which main issues do you foresee …
Are you confident regarding your
current housing for the next month?
Main perceived issues
Food, employment and prices are the key drivers
Analysis
Not very
confident
Not confident at all
Somewhat
confident
Very confident
Access to food Job & revenue Prices of basic
goods
Health
(family)
Health
(mysef)
Constrained
mobility
Security Access to power Access to water Housing Access to
healthcare
o Access to food, unemployment/decreasing revenues and increasing prices are considered more likely
and more impactful issues than health and security issues
o Insecurity, limited access to power, water and housing are growing concerns after 3 months.
While housing is a relatively low concern to most respondents, 20% respondents are not confident
concerning their housing situation in 1 month.
In the next 3 months
In the next month 92
93

9. Respondents opinion and focus
Focus on food access, efficient logistics, health & access to energy
80%
60%
41%
37% 35%
27%
20%
15%
11%
7%
Government should focus on…
Subsidizing
food
Ensuring efficient
food delivery
Providing free
healthcare
Ensuring continuous
access to power
Providing
Cash subsidies
Reinforcing
logistics
Pushing back
Rent payments
Ensuring
security
Setting an
unemployment
scheme
Subsidizing
connectivity
Food access and delivery are
the key priorities
Continuous access to power
ranks 4 after food and health
Ensuring security ranks lower than
logistics and rent payments
91
Somewhat agreeAgree Neither agree
or disagree
Somewhat
disagree
Disagree
I feel certain about the future, post - COVID19 I feel secure in the way the Nigerian
government is co-ordinating it's response to
COVID-19
I feel secure about my ability to sustain
myself (and family, if applicable) financially.
1 21
2 3
3
54%31%
2%
9%
4%
30%
21%17%
23%
8%
11%
6%
26%26%
30%
99 10099

10. HEALTH & AWARENESS
Preliminary results

11. Heard of COVID-19?
Do you think it can reach you?
When did you hear of it?
If no why?
Awareness and beliefs
First-grade & early awareness, limited & belief-based perception of risk, optimal channels for reaction
100
99
100
Do you think COVID-19 Do you think it is is already Nigeria? 10099
52
100%
0%
52%
48%
90%
4% 6%
17%
38%
30%
14%
1%
95%
4%
What are your main sources of information about COVID-19?
56%
12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 6% 4% 2%
Religion Preventive
medicine
Does not existPreventive
measures
Distance/
Isolation
Not for
Nigerians
Too young Other For the elite Government
intervention
Lock down
W0W-1M-1M-2
100
76%
55% 53% 53%
44%
25%
12% 9% 3%
Radio WhatsApp TV Friends & FamilyFacebook Google
research &
online news
Instagram Church Twitter
Yes
100%
I don’t know
Exists
Is a scam No I don’t know
Yes
No
Yes
o High awareness and acceptance of COVID-19 but limited perception of risk,
due to beliefs
1
o Printed press not considered in this study due to supposed logistics constraints

12. Knowledge on effects and precautions
Relatively high awareness of symptoms, preventive and treatment measures – proposed optimizations
Main symptoms Main preventive measures
What would you do if you have a strong fever
and dry cough?
Main treatment/response measures
Analysis
75%
57%
43% 43%
37%
11%
3% 3%
96%
76%
63%
51%
44%
33%
21%
50%
34%
25%
16% 14%
2%
46%
28%
15%
11%
5% 4%
2% 2%
Dry
cough
Sneezing Fever Head-
aches
Tired-
ness
BleedingDifficulty
breathing
Go to a
clinic/
hospital
Call a
doctor
Get
tested
Self-
isolate
NothingMalaria
pills
Hand
sanitizer
Masks Gloves Self
isolation
Religion Washing
objects
1m
distance
Herbs Clinic/
Hospital/
doctor
None Religion Alcohol Herbs Malaria
pills
Don’t
know
Other
drugs
9710095
100
o High awareness of main symptoms, but relatively limited coverage of key symptoms such as
difficulty breathing
o Knowledge of treatment measures more focused on products such as sanitizer and masks, than
behaviours like physical and social distancing awareness is more limited
o High awareness of pragmatic treatment & responsive measures
o Important potential level of misdiagnosis with Malaria, and relatively high prevalence of Religion,
Alcohol and traditional herb as treatment measures
1 1 2 2
2
2
1
This is not a
symptom

13. 21%
36%
22%
12%
8%
Do you use Sanitizer?
Practical preventive and responsive behaviours
Relatively high use of sanitizers/masks, but poor contacts with health facilities, limited more by accessibility than beliefs.
If no why?
Do you use Masks? If no why?
Do you have access to any contact of a
health facility or health worker?
How far is the closest health facility you
would go to in case of health issue or
emergency?
44%
34%
16%
6%
64%
3%
24%
9%
55%
45%
5 min 20 min
66%
20%
5% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Not available
closely
Too
expensive
Not
interested
Waiting for
government
Not
priority
Using
alcohol
Useless
51%
17%
9% 8% 6% 5% 5%
Not available
closely
Too
expensive
Not
priority
I don’t
go out
Don’t
like it
UselessNot
interested
Yes
No
Yes very
often
2-3 times
a day
1 time maximum
a day No
No
Yes even home
with others
Yes every
time
I go out
Only in crowded
environment
5 min 20 min
Walk away By car / boat
9944100
896599
Focus on availability and price of
sanitizer and masks
1
WHO recommends 15min walk
away
2

14. 14%
16%70%
Have you heard of Self Isolation / Distancing?
Self-isolation
Expressed application of self-isolation measures, relatively important risk concerning older generations
Have older people around you reduced
your movement or interactions with
people recently?
Have you/other people around you
reduced your movement or interactions
with people recently?
In how many other houses than yours
have you been today?
75%
15%
8%
2%
0 1-2 Office/Work3+
15%
26%
59%
Analysis
Ye and I know
what this is
Yes but I
don’t
know
what this is
No
Yes significantly / Stay mostly home
Yes slightly
/ Still go
out
No specific
change
Yes significantly
/ Stay mostly
home
Yes slightly
/ Still go
out
No specific
change
959980
100
o 40% people have either not heard either do not know the meaning and purpose of social isolation
and distancing
o At least 51% people say they do not leave their house except in case of emergency, and 75%
people have not been in any other house than theirs the day of the interview
Up to 15% respondents report that older people have not at taken adequate protective measures:
it may mean that up to 150k 60+ year old people are at risk in Lagos only.
2%
47%
51%

15. An initiative
supported by
About us
Mitsio Motu Ltd. is a research and advisory firm based in Lagos which supports
government, institutions, NGOs and private companies design, developing,
implementing and optimizing projects that have an impact on underserved
communities
Contact usWho we are
We are a group of experts, practitioners and community members
who aim at helping both public institutions and private actors decide
on the most relevant ways to make impactful interventions in areas
needed the most by various communities in Nigeria during the
current and upcoming COVID-19 crisis, through the collection and
analysis of field and alternative data.
You are an expert, a practitioner, a community
member interested in joining us:
Info@covidobs.com
www.covidobs.com
You are a company, NGO or public body
interested in partnering with us:
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