Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

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Presented a two hour lecture at NCRD...
National Centre for Rural Development...
International Workshop on Waste Management--- Solid, Liquid and Gaseous Wastes...
18th-28th November, 2013...
http://www.ncrd.gov.pk/WORKSHOP%20COURSES.html

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Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

  1. 1. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems Lokhaze Ali Visiting Teaching Faculty NUST PhD Student NUST Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 1
  2. 2. Thought of the Day “KUN FAYAKUN” is an Arabic phrase in Quran It means The Lord says “Be, and it is” Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 2
  3. 3. Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C • One thing is sure - the earth is now more cultivated and developed than ever before. There is more farming with pure force, swamps are drying up, and cities are springing up on unprecedented scale. • We've become a burden to our planet. Resources are becoming scare, and soon nature will no longer be able to satisfy our needs. The time will ultimately come when pest, hunger, floods and war will diminish the excessive numbers of our human species. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 3
  4. 4. Global Population Evolution For thousands of years, the world population remained well below 500 million. Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7 billion. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 4
  5. 5. It’s Alright to be CONFUSED Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 5
  6. 6. What do the Scientists KNOW that the rest of Us do not Know? Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 6
  7. 7. The Earth Systems Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 7
  8. 8. The Basic Questions What controls Earth’s temperature? How is climate changing? Is Global Warming due to humans? What will it be like in your lifetime? Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 8
  9. 9. Three Ways to Change the Temperature of a Planet Change input a) Solar variability Change output b) Earth’s Reflectivity (albedo) c) Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 9
  10. 10. The Story of Planets Mars (~229 million km) Earth (~150 million km) Venus (~108 million km) http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 10
  11. 11. The Story of Planets Venus Earth Mars 450°C 15°C -55°C (would be -18°C without naturalWarming, Disaster Management & greenhouse effect) Global Early Warning Systems 11
  12. 12. The Greenhouse Effect Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 12
  13. 13. Water Vapors Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 13
  14. 14. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 14
  15. 15. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 15
  16. 16. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 16
  17. 17. Atmospheric Windows & Atmospheric Absorption Bands Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 17
  18. 18. The Keeling Curve Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 18
  19. 19. How CO2 concentration is measured (left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network. Global Warming, Disaster Management & 19 (right) locations of stations for flasks collected Early CO2 and CO2 isotope measurements. for Warning Systems
  20. 20. Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of Ancient Air Scientists collecting ice core samples Disaster Management & Antarctic ice core. A slice of Global Warming, in Antarctica. An 20 ice core containing tiny bubbles Earlyancient air. of Warning Systems
  21. 21. Ice Core Data from Antarctica going back 800,000 YBP Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 21
  22. 22. The Present CO2 Level • 25th May, 2013: 400.01ppm • 26th May, 2012: 396.34ppm Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 22
  23. 23. WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL, AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN? • most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene) • the CO2 conc. in atmosphere reached between 330-400 ppm • global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now • sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters • implying that global ice volume was much less than today Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 23
  24. 24. Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 24
  25. 25. Emissions & Sinks Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 25
  26. 26. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 26
  27. 27. Kyoto/Montreal Protocol • • Third Conference of Parties (COP-3) in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997 Sets binding greenhouse gas emissions targets for countries that sign and ratify the agreement. The gases covered under the Protocol include • carbon dioxide • methane • nitrous oxide • hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • pduorocarbons (PFCs) • sulfur hexafluoride Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 27
  28. 28. Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms 1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 2. Joint Implementation (JI) 3. International Carbon Trading (ICT) Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 28
  29. 29. Carbon Trading • Carbon Markets • Carbon Credits • Carbon Trading Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 29
  30. 30. Carbon Footprint Total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases emitted directly/indirectly into the system Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 30
  31. 31. Ocean Warming Faster Now Than in 10,000 Years • Pacific Ocean waters warmed 15 times faster in the last six decades • Than over the last ten millennia • Fuel for more storms, hurricanes & disasters Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 31
  32. 32. Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed Global Warming • The largest ozone hole ever observed • September 2006 • Shows a large area of depleted stratospheric ozone • Over the South Pole • A phasedown in the use of CFCs was enacted to reverse the loss of ozone • Which protects the Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 32
  33. 33. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 33
  34. 34. Disaster Management Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 34
  35. 35. World Meteorological Organization • According to the World Meteorological Organization, one dollar invested in disaster preparedness can prevent seven dollars’ worth of disaster-related economic losses. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 35
  36. 36. Continuum of Magnitude Extinction Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Level Event Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 36
  37. 37. Hazard Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 37
  38. 38. Vulnerability Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 38
  39. 39. Disaster Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 39
  40. 40. CATASTROPHE “… any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.” Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 40
  41. 41. Resilient Societies • Ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner • Through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 41
  42. 42. Rising Exposure to Cyclones and Hurricanes, 2000-2050 Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 42
  43. 43. World's Most Vulnerable Areas to Climate Change Mapped • Scientists from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the University of Queensland, and Stanford University • A roadmap that identifies the world's most vulnerable and least vulnerable areas in the Age of Climate Change Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 43
  44. 44. World Vulnerability Map Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 44
  45. 45. Earthquakes Balakot • Pakistan Earthquake 2005 • Human Loss : 73,338 Dead and &128,304 Severely Injured Turkey 2011 Puerto Rico 2010 Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 45
  46. 46. Haiti Earthquake Haiti 2010 – Before and After Earthquake • left 1.5 million homeless • killed 149,095 people of which 6300 died in a potentially preventable cholera outbreak which infected a further 450,000 residents • Cost Analysis by Remotely Sensed Data Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 46
  47. 47. Floods in Pakistan 2010 • Floods in Pakistan • July to August 2010 • affected 20 million people and destroyed health facilities Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 47
  48. 48. Famine in Africa 2011 • Affected 10 million people across several countries • Large population displacement • Lack of Disaster Preparedness Immediate priorities included • Provision of water, sanitation, shelter • Trained staff to address widespread acute malnutrition • Surveillance for outbreaks • Vaccine programs for preventable diseases • Funding • Inter-agency coordination Warming, Disaster Management & Global Early Warning Systems 48
  49. 49. Earthquake & Tsunami Japan 2011 • Destruction of healthcare facilities • Initial shortages of Food, Water, fuel & Aid materials • 400,000 people were evacuated to shelters with no heating in freezing temperatures • Japan had invested in disaster management • had created a more resilient health system which continued to function in spite of the challenges Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 49
  50. 50. Fukushima Nuclear Disaster Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 50
  51. 51. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 51
  52. 52. Super Typhoon Haiyan One of world’s most powerful storms in history from space Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 52
  53. 53. World’s Costliest Disasters Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 53
  54. 54. Disaster Risk Management Framework Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 54
  55. 55. Challenges to Decision Making vs Basic Goals Challenges to Decision Making • Where Uncomfortable Officials • Meet in Unfamiliar Surroundings • To Play Unaccustomed Roles • Making Unpopular Decisions • Based on Inadequate Information • And in Much Too Little Time Basic Goals Standing Orders for All Disasters: • Establish/re-establish communication with affected area. • Secure and complete search and rescue. • Meet basic human needs for medical treatment, water, food, shelter, and emergency fuels • Restore critical infrastructure. • Open schools and local businesses. • Begin the recovery. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 55
  56. 56. Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA) Endorsed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan Global guidance framework to facilitate effective implementation of DRR at int’l, regional, national and local levels • 3 Strategic goals • 5 Priorities for action • Implementation and follow-up Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 56
  57. 57. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 57
  58. 58. Green vs. Gray Infrastructure Costs Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 58
  59. 59. FEMA Trailer Types Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 59
  60. 60. Risk Maps/Simulation Models Category 2 Storm Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 60
  61. 61. Three Dimensional Map Rendition of Flooding Event-Purdue University Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 61
  62. 62. Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM) Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 62
  63. 63. Migration Maps (from & to) • Digital Database • Climate Refugees • International Donor’s Aid Records • Visa/ATM Cards • Mobile Tracking Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 63
  64. 64. ATLAS This 6-Foot, 330-Pound Robot May One Day Save Your Life Designed to save lives in disaster zones (like Fukushima) 1. VISION 2. COMPUTER 3. HANDS 4. JOINTS 5. FEET 6. MATERIALS 7. STATURE Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 64
  65. 65. Pakistan’s Population Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 65
  66. 66. Pakistan’s Population Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 66
  67. 67. Number of climate refugees to touch 1 Billion (1000 million) mark by 2050 Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 67
  68. 68. Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 68
  69. 69. Early Warning Systems Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 69
  70. 70. Hadith Tie the knot… … and leave it at God’s Will Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 70
  71. 71. Earth Observation • Insight/understanding of Earth’s complex processes/changes • Satellite Remote Sensing • Aerial Surveys • Geographic Information System GIS • Land/ocean-based monitoring systems • To support models/tools to support decision making processes Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 71
  72. 72. Effective Warning Program • Receive the warning • Understand the information presented • Believe the information • Personalize the information • Make correct decisions • Respond in a timely manner Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 72
  73. 73. Existing Early Warning Systems • • • • • • • • Tsunami Wildfires Landslides Floods/Urban flash floods Drought and famine Volcanic eruption Typhoons and Hurricanes Earthquakes Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 73
  74. 74. Meteoalarms Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 74
  75. 75. MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for the heat wave Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 75
  76. 76. Nowcasting • capacity to provide nowcasts • forecasts for the following few hours • analysis and extrapolation of weather systems • observed on radar, satellites and in situ sensors Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 76
  77. 77. Earthquake Tsunami Warning System • new earthquake alert system • ocean-based tsunami warning system Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 77
  78. 78. Examples of Response to an Earthquake Early Warning Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 78
  79. 79. Landslides Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 79
  80. 80. Flood Warning System Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 80
  81. 81. Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 81
  82. 82. Wildfires Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 82
  83. 83. The Future • Vision The Alternative Futures (Multiple Futures) • Emerging Trends of the World • Your Strategies for the Multiple Futures • A timeline to implement your strategies Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 83
  84. 84. Follow China’s Strategy in Promoting Your Business • China during Energy Crisis • Invested in manufacturing Export Quality Solar Panels (as they could not afford to use them) • Improved GDP • Now using those solar panels for domestic and commercial use Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 84
  85. 85. Why Invest in Space Technology? • • • • • Digital Monitoring Knowing the Unknown Exploring the Resources Climate Investment Funds Invest in Disaster Management and Export Quality Early Warning Systems (Remote Sensing & GIS) • Production and Usage Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 85
  86. 86. Future Trends The Habitat Systems The Curiosity Rover to Mars Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems The Satellite Servicing Project 86

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