Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

Global Warming,
Disaster Management
&
Early Warning
Systems
Lokhaze Ali
Visiting Teaching Faculty NUST
PhD Student NUST
Global Warming, Disaster Management &
Early Warning Systems

1

Thought of the Day
“KUN FAYAKUN”
is an Arabic phrase in
Quran
It means
The Lord says
“Be, and it is”


2

Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C
• One thing is sure - the earth is
now more cultivated and
developed than ever before.
There is more farming with pure
force, swamps are drying up, and
cities are springing up on
unprecedented scale.
• We've become a burden to our
planet. Resources are becoming
scare, and soon nature will no
longer be able to satisfy our
needs. The time will ultimately
come when pest, hunger, floods
and war will diminish the
excessive numbers of our human
species.

3

Global Population Evolution
For thousands of years, the world population remained well below 500
million. Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed
to over 7 billion.


4

It’s Alright to be CONFUSED


5

What do the Scientists KNOW that
the rest of Us do not Know?


6

The Earth Systems


7

The Basic Questions
What controls Earth’s temperature?
How is climate changing?
Is Global Warming due to humans?
What will it be like in your lifetime?


8

Three Ways to Change
the Temperature of a Planet
Change input
a) Solar variability

Change output
b) Earth’s Reflectivity (albedo)
c) Greenhouse Gas Concentrations


9

The Story of Planets

Mars (~229 million km)
Earth (~150 million km)
Venus (~108 million km)

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg


10

The Story of Planets
Venus

Earth

Mars

450°C

15°C

-55°C

(would be -18°C without
naturalWarming, Disaster Management &
greenhouse effect)
Global

11

The Greenhouse Effect


12

Water Vapors


13


14


15


16

Atmospheric Windows &
Atmospheric Absorption Bands


17

The Keeling Curve


18

How CO2 concentration is measured

(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network.
19
(right) locations of stations for flasks collected Early CO2 and CO2 isotope measurements.
for Warning Systems

Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of
Ancient Air

Scientists collecting ice core samples Disaster Management & Antarctic ice core. A slice of
Global Warming, in Antarctica. An
20
ice core containing tiny bubbles Earlyancient air.
of Warning Systems

Ice Core Data from Antarctica going
back 800,000 YBP


21

The Present CO2 Level
• 25th May, 2013:
400.01ppm
• 26th May, 2012:
396.34ppm


22

WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL,
AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?
• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2
and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)
• the CO2 conc. in atmosphere reached between
330-400 ppm
• global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now
• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters
• implying that global ice volume was much less
than today

23

Multi-Model Averages and Assessed
Ranges for Surface Warming


24

Emissions & Sinks


25


26

Kyoto/Montreal Protocol
•
•

Third Conference of Parties (COP-3)
in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997
Sets
binding
greenhouse
gas
emissions targets for countries that
sign and ratify the agreement.

The gases covered under the Protocol
include
• carbon dioxide
• methane
• nitrous oxide
• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
• pduorocarbons (PFCs)
• sulfur hexafluoride


27

Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms
1. Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
2. Joint Implementation
(JI)
3. International Carbon
Trading (ICT)


28

Carbon Trading
• Carbon Markets
• Carbon Credits
• Carbon Trading


29

Carbon Footprint
Total amount of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and other
greenhouse gases emitted
directly/indirectly into the
system


30

Ocean Warming Faster Now Than in
10,000 Years
• Pacific Ocean waters
warmed 15 times faster
in the last six decades
• Than over the last ten
millennia
• Fuel for more storms,
hurricanes & disasters


31

Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed
Global Warming
• The largest ozone hole ever
observed
• September 2006
• Shows a large area of depleted
stratospheric ozone
• Over the South Pole
• A phasedown in the use of
CFCs was enacted to reverse
the loss of ozone
• Which protects the Earth from
the sun's harmful ultraviolet
radiation.


32


33

Disaster Management


34

World Meteorological Organization
• According to the World
Meteorological
Organization, one dollar
invested in disaster
preparedness can prevent
seven dollars’ worth of
disaster-related economic
losses.


35

Continuum of Magnitude

Extinction
Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Level Event


36

Hazard


37

Vulnerability


38

Disaster


39

CATASTROPHE
“… any natural or manmade incident, including
terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels of
mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely
affecting the population, infrastructure,
environment, economy, national morale, and/or
government functions.”


40

Resilient Societies
• Ability of a system,
community or society
exposed to hazards to
resist,
absorb,
accommodate
and
recover from the effects
of a hazard in a timely
and efficient manner
• Through the preservation
and restoration of its
essential basic structures

41

Rising Exposure to Cyclones and
Hurricanes, 2000-2050


42

World's Most Vulnerable Areas to
Climate Change Mapped
• Scientists
from
the
Wildlife
Conservation
Society, the University of
Queensland, and Stanford
University
• A roadmap that identifies
the
world's
most
vulnerable
and
least
vulnerable areas in the
Age of Climate Change

43

World Vulnerability Map


44

Earthquakes

Balakot
• Pakistan Earthquake 2005
• Human Loss : 73,338 Dead
and &128,304 Severely
Injured

Turkey 2011
Puerto Rico 2010

45

Haiti Earthquake

Haiti 2010 – Before and After Earthquake
• left 1.5 million homeless
• killed 149,095 people of which 6300 died
in a potentially preventable cholera
outbreak which infected a further
450,000 residents
• Cost Analysis by Remotely Sensed Data

46

Floods in Pakistan 2010
• Floods in Pakistan
• July to August 2010
• affected 20 million
people and destroyed
health facilities


47

Famine in Africa 2011
• Affected 10 million people
across several countries
• Large population displacement
• Lack of Disaster Preparedness
Immediate priorities included
• Provision of water, sanitation,
shelter
• Trained staff to address
widespread acute malnutrition
• Surveillance for outbreaks
• Vaccine programs for
preventable diseases
• Funding
• Inter-agency coordination Warming, Disaster Management &
Global

48

Earthquake & Tsunami Japan 2011
• Destruction of healthcare
facilities
• Initial shortages of Food, Water,
fuel & Aid materials
• 400,000 people were
evacuated to shelters with no
heating in freezing
temperatures
• Japan had invested in disaster
management
• had created a more resilient
health system which continued
to function in spite of the
challenges

49

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster


50


51

Super Typhoon Haiyan
One of world’s most powerful storms in history from space


52

World’s Costliest Disasters


53

Disaster Risk Management Framework


54

Challenges to Decision Making
vs Basic Goals
Challenges to Decision Making
• Where Uncomfortable Officials
• Meet in Unfamiliar Surroundings
• To Play Unaccustomed Roles
• Making Unpopular Decisions
• Based on Inadequate Information
• And in Much Too Little Time

Basic Goals
Standing Orders for All Disasters:
• Establish/re-establish
communication with affected
area.
• Secure and complete search and
rescue.
• Meet basic human needs for
medical treatment, water, food,
shelter, and emergency fuels
• Restore critical infrastructure.
• Open
schools
and
local
businesses.
• Begin the recovery.


55

Hyogo Framework for Action
2005-2015 (HFA)
Endorsed at the World Conference
on Disaster Reduction January
2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
Global guidance framework to
facilitate effective implementation of
DRR at int’l, regional, national and
local levels
• 3 Strategic goals
• 5 Priorities for action

•

Implementation and follow-up


56


57

Green vs. Gray Infrastructure Costs


58

FEMA Trailer Types


59

Risk Maps/Simulation Models

Category 2 Storm

60

Three Dimensional Map Rendition of
Flooding Event-Purdue University


61

Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)


62

Migration Maps (from & to)
• Digital Database
• Climate Refugees
• International Donor’s Aid
Records
• Visa/ATM Cards
• Mobile Tracking


63

ATLAS
This 6-Foot, 330-Pound Robot May One Day Save Your Life
Designed to save lives in
disaster zones (like Fukushima)
1. VISION
2. COMPUTER
3. HANDS
4. JOINTS
5. FEET
6. MATERIALS
7. STATURE

64

Pakistan’s Population


65

Pakistan’s Population


66

Number of climate refugees to touch
1 Billion (1000 million) mark by 2050


67


68



69

Hadith

Tie the knot…
… and leave it at God’s Will


70

Earth Observation
• Insight/understanding of
Earth’s complex
processes/changes
• Satellite Remote Sensing
• Aerial Surveys
• Geographic Information
System GIS
• Land/ocean-based
monitoring systems
• To support models/tools to
support decision making
processes

71

Effective Warning Program
• Receive the warning
• Understand the
information presented
• Believe the information
• Personalize the
information
• Make correct decisions
• Respond in a timely
manner

72

Existing Early Warning Systems
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Tsunami
Wildfires
Landslides
Floods/Urban flash floods
Drought and famine
Volcanic eruption
Typhoons and Hurricanes
Earthquakes


73

Meteoalarms


74

MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for
the heat wave


75

Nowcasting
• capacity to provide
nowcasts
• forecasts for the
following few hours
• analysis
and
extrapolation
of
weather systems
• observed on radar,
satellites and in situ
sensors

76

Earthquake Tsunami Warning System
• new earthquake alert
system
• ocean-based tsunami
warning system


77

Examples of Response to an
Earthquake Early Warning


78

Landslides


79

Flood Warning System


80

Deep-ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)


81

Wildfires


82

The Future
• Vision The Alternative
Futures (Multiple
Futures)
• Emerging Trends of the
World
• Your Strategies for the
Multiple Futures
• A timeline to implement
your strategies

83

Follow China’s Strategy in Promoting
Your Business
• China during Energy
Crisis
• Invested in
manufacturing Export
Quality Solar Panels (as
they could not afford to
use them)
• Improved GDP
• Now using those solar
panels for domestic and
commercial use

84

Why Invest in Space Technology?
•
•
•
•
•

Digital Monitoring
Knowing the Unknown
Exploring the Resources
Climate Investment Funds
Invest in Disaster
Management and Export
Quality Early Warning
Systems (Remote Sensing
& GIS)
• Production and Usage

85

Future Trends

The Habitat Systems

The Curiosity Rover to Mars

The Satellite Servicing Project
86

Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

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