Emergent_Science_Cultural_Awareness_LMuscatine_6-18-19
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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are important to California’s water cycle because the amount and availability of water is a vital component for sustaining California’s population, economy, and environment. The risks and benefits associated with AR storms relate to floods and water supply. In this presentation I share how the the science of atmospheric rivers emerged and why our need to better understand and apply what we know about them can help us to better manage our most precious natural resource. I gave this presentation in October 2018 at the Bay-Delta Science Conference as part of my role as managing editor of the foundational book Atmospheric Rivers, which was written by over 30 international scientists who are leading the field of global AR research. The book will be published in Springer's Atmospheric Sciences series in September 2019.
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Emergent_Science_Cultural_Awareness_LMuscatine_6-18-19
- 1. Lauren D. Muscatine, Principal Editor John Muir Institute, University of California, Davis The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness 10th Biennial Bay-Delta Science Conference | Sept. 11, 2018 #BDSC2018
- 2. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018 The cycle of life is intricately joined with the cycle of water. –Jacques-Yves Cousteau
- 3. Part I: Emergent Science • What Is An Atmospheric River? • The History of AR Science • Sorting Things Out • Getting it Down on Paper The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018
- 4. What Is An Atmospheric River? The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 5. Handy Explainer #1: Dr. Duane Waliser The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science YouTube: Fall 2015 AGU Press Conference
- 6. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018 California’s ARs • On avg., five to ten make landfall each wet season of the WY • Contribute 30 – 50% of annual water supply • Can cause major flood events (not all have this effect) • Largest occur every 1 to 2 centuries (e.g., 1861-62 flood) Terry Torgerson, North Coast Journal of Politics, People and Art; Jan. 19, 2017
- 7. AR Research Supported by CA Legislation Since 2015 The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science • SB 758 passed October 9, 2015. • Requires DWR to improve flood protection and water reliability by gaining more knowledge of ARs. • Year-to-year variability in CA is 2-3X greater than in rest of the U.S. and presents unique challenges for water supply and flood control. • SB 758 supports more effective management of water resources during extreme weather episodes.
- 8. The History of AR Science The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 9. The Emergence of AR Science Through Publication Zhu & Newell 1994, GRL Ralph et al. 2004, BAMS Dettinger 2011, WaterZhu & Newell 1998, BAMS The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science The number of AR publications increase sharply as a result …
- 10. Sharp Increase in Growth of AR Publications Since 2011 Christine Albano, Ph.D. DRI, Univ. of Nevada, Reno The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 11. Papers Published in Meteorology / Atmospheric Sciences The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science Christine Albano, Ph.D. DRI, Univ. of Nevada, Reno
- 12. ARs Occur Globally, Researchers Publish Locally Bin Guan, Ph.D. NASA / JPL The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science Number of AR papers published per region , 1979-2015
- 13. Sorting Things Out The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 14. Marty Ralph, Director CW3E-Scripps The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science YouTube: Scripps Oceanography
- 15. Relationships Between ARs, WCBs and TMEs Dettinger et al. 2015, Eos Meeting Report Adapted from NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 16. AR Science Fosters Collaboration and Communication The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science AR Workshop 2015 FIRO / CW3E WorkshopsIARC 2016 AGU Fall / AMS Winter IARC 2018Media Briefings; Press Conferences
- 17. An Atmospheric River, Scientifically Defined A long, narrow, and transient corridor of strong horizontal water vapor transport that is typically associated with a low-level jet stream ahead of the cold front of an extratropical cyclone. --Glossary of Meteorology, May 2017 The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 18. Getting It Down on Paper The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 19. June 2015 AR Workshop Defined Scope and Funding for AR “Monograph” The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science 1. History of AR Science 2. AR Applications 3. Global and Regional Perspectives 4. Observing and Detecting ARs 5. AR Effects 6. Theory, Structure, and Processes 7. Modeling Methodologies • Principal Investigator: F. Martin Ralph (UCSD) • Principal Investigator: Lauren Muscatine (UCD) • Task: Synthesize and Advance Atmospheric River Science • Contract Period: Years 1–3 (2015–18) fully funded; Adding Year 4 to September 2019. • Funding Agency: USACE • Partner Campus: U.C. San Diego / Scripps Institution of Oceanography • Project Title (FIRO): Water Operations Technical Support: Research to Investigate Atmospheric (AR) and the Feasibility of Developing and Using AR Forecast Capabilities to Inform Reservoir Operations Within the USACE. 7 SECTIONS
- 20. DEDICATION / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS FOREWORD Author — Lance Bosart PREFACE Author — F. Martin Ralph CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Lead— F. Martin Ralph 1.1 History of AR Science 1.2 ARs and Climate Change 1.3 Role of ARs in the Water Cycle 1.4 Applications CHAPTER 2 STRUCTURE, PROCESS, AND MECHANISM Leads — Harald Sodemann, Heini Wernli, Peter Knippertz 3.1 Structure of ARs 3.2 WCBs and TMEs, and Their Relationship to ARs 3.3 Water Vapor Transport in ARs 3.4 ARs and Extratropical Dynamics CHAPTER 3 OBSERVING AND DETECTING ARS Leads — Allen B. White, Gary A. Wick, F. Martin Ralph 2.1 Satellite Observations of ARs 2.2 Atmospheric River Observatories (AROs) 2.3 Network Observations: Monitoring ARs Over California 2.4 AR Field Campaigns and 2.5 AR Identification CHAPTER 4: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES Leads—Jonathan J. Rutz, Bin Guan 4.1 Global Climatology 4.2 Climate Modulation 4.3 ARs along the North American West Coast 4.4 Inland-Penetrating ARs over the Western U.S. 4.5 ARs in the Southeastern U.S. 4.6 Europe 4.7 Southern South America 4.8 ARs in the Polar Regions CHAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF ARs Leads—Michael D. Dettinger, David Lavers 5.1 ARs and Orographic Precipitation 5.2 ARs, Floods, and Water Resources 5.3 Other Effects of ARs 5.4 Regional Perspectives on AR Effects 5.5 Summary and Characteristics that Control AR Effects CHAPTER 6: AR MODELING: FORECASTS, CLIMATE SIMULATIONS, AND CLIMATE PROJECTIONS Leads — Jason Cordeira, Duane Waliser 6.0 Background 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Forecasting Atmospheric Rivers 6.3 Simulating Atmospheric Rivers 6.4 Climate Projections of Atmospheric Rivers 6.5 Summary and Emerging Directions CHAPTER 7: APPLICATIONS Leads — Michael L. Anderson, Lawrence J. Schick, F. Martin Ralph 7.1 USACE: ARs and Flood Risk Management 7.2 AR Applications: Forecast Informed Reservoir Observations, Lake Mendocino Example 7.3 AR Use in Flood Planning in California 7.4 AR Science, Natural Hazards Risk Reduction, and ARkStorm 7.5 The Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport (IVT) CHAPTER 8: THE FUTURE OF AR RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS Leads — Michael D. Dettinger, F. Martin Ralph, Jonathan J. Rutz, Duane Waliser 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Observational Gaps 8.3 Emerging Directions in AR Physical Processes Research 8.4 Communicating and Applying AR Information 8.5 Concluding Remarks ACRONYMS / GLOSSARY INDEX Table of Contents The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science
- 21. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science Chapter Design
- 22. A Fully Courted Press The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science • Evaluated 8 diff. presses in 2016 • Developed detailed proposal • Met with UC Press • Dropped “monograph” in favor of “book” • Redrafted proposal • Ultimately tapped by Springer in 2017
- 23. Editors, Authors, Publication Team • Co-Editors: Marty Ralph, Michael Dettinger, Duane Waliser, Jonathan Rutz The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science • Publication Team: Sheila Chandrasekhar, Mary Beth Sanders, Lauren Muscatine • Contributing Authors: Lance Bosart, Peter Knippertz, Francina Dominguez, Huancui Hu, Andreas Stohl, Michael Alexander, Deniz Bozkurt, Irina Gorodetskaya, Anna Wilson, Alexander Gershunov, Kelly Mahoney, Benjamin Moore, William Neff, Paul Neiman, Alexandre Ramos, Maria Tsukernik, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, R. Valenzuela, Maximilliano Viale, Gilbert Compo, Nina Oakley, Alexandre Ramos, Andrew Wade, Dale Cox, Jay Jasperse, David Richardson, Florian Pappenberger, and Ervin Zsoter. • Chapter Leads : Marty Ralph, Heini Wernli, Harald Sodemann, Allen White, Gary Wick, Jonathan Rutz, Bin Guan, Michael Dettinger, David Lavers, Duane Waliser, Jason Cordeira, Michael Anderson, Lawrence Schick
- 24. Part II: Cultural Awareness • Informing the Public • Handling Misinformation • Sharing Stories The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018
- 25. Informing the Public The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part II: Cultural Awareness
- 26. Everybody Wants to Know . . . • Where is the AR located? • When will it arrive? • How long will it last? • How much water will we get? The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part II: Cultural Awareness Oh, And . . . • What are the potential risks? • How do we deal with the media? • How can we get the word out?
- 27. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018 Meteorologists Cover AR Events Across Many Channels
- 28. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018 Chris Smallcomb’s Freakout Scale
- 29. Handling Misinformation The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part II: Cultural Awareness
- 30. Sharing Stories The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part II: Cultural Awareness
- 31. Communicating Beyond the Standard Journal Article and Typical Conference Talk The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part I: Emergent Science Daniel Swain, PhD @Weather_West
- 32. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018
- 33. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Part II: Cultural Awareness Discretion, Nuance are Key • As scientists, we must weigh benefits against risks to identify novel solutions. • Yet, like artists, we must inquire within to inspire taking right actions. • From new knowledge and expanded awareness, we must weigh what we know against what we intend.
- 34. THANK YOU! Mary Beth Sanders Sheila Chandrasekhar Duane Waliser Jonathan Rutz Michael Dettinger Marty Ralph Enid Baxter Ryce
- 35. The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness Sept. 11, 2018
Editor's Notes
- My name is Lauren Muscatine. My co-presenter Enid Baxter Ryce are I are excited to share with you today “The Intersection of Emergent Science and Cultural Awareness.” I have 20 years of experience in science and publications management. I publish peer-reviewed papers to further the state of knowledge of a variety of research topics that focus on the Bay-Delta estuary. I assist researchers, engineers, and decision-makers in their efforts to use scientific information to manage California’s natural resources. I’m often chosen to lead large, complex publication efforts working in teams comprised of scientists, engineers, and writing, editing, and design professionals. I co-founded the online journal, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, in 2003 and have been its managing editor for 12 of its 15 years of publication. I am now leading the development of a foundational book on atmospheric rivers with over 30 international scientists under a 5-year multi-million dollar award.
- Tonight I want to share with you how the the science of atmospheric rivers had emerged. This important topic in meteorology underscores our need to better understand and apply what we know about our most precious natural resource: WATER.
- How many of you have heard the term, atmospheric river? It’s gained a lot of traction among scientists and the public over the past few years. You may have heard the term Pineapple Express, a type of AR, and the term was more commonly used. For those of you who don’t know what it is, think of it as a “river in the sky.” These weather patterns are long narrow bands of water vapor that originate from the tropics and bring heavy amounts of rain wherever they make landfall. Some ARs can transport as much as the Amazon River, about 175,000 m3/s.
- In this video, Dr. Duane Waliser, a Co-Editor of the book, explains more using animation. https://youtu.be/Rj6lHSey-uU Start time: 2:04 End time: 3:19
- Here’s why AR storms are important to California’s water cycle.
- Water supply is vital component to sustaining California’s population, economy, and environment. The risks and benefits associated with ARs relate to floods and water supply. Recognizing this, in October 2015, state legislation was passed. SB 758 requires … [see slide] Mike Anderson, State climatologist (Co-lead on Chapter 7: Applications)
- Concept of ARs emerged in the 1990s, marked by 2 scientific papers by Yong Zhu and Reginald Newell (MIT) in 1994 and 1998. These first papers received sig. criticism. Fewer than 10 articles were published on the subject until a paper by Ralph et al. in 2004. This paper combined data from a variety of detection methods from aircraft, satellite measurements, and microwave imagers. A number of researchers studying ARs today remarked to me that the paper by Dettinger in 2011 in the journal Water brought the subject to their attention.
- The growth of the subject is evident in the sharp increase in the number of scientific papers published since 2011. Last year about 400 papers were published on the topic.
- Another indicator of the growth of the science comes from comparing the overall number of peer-reviewed papers from the field of meteorology and atmospheric sciences compared with other disciplines. This data shows the comparison across disciplines just last month.
- This map shows the global occurrence of landfalling ARs (1979 – 2015). Overlaid boxes in blue are # of papers published in regions where ARs commonly occur: The greatest # of papers that correspond with landfalling ARs are in the West Coast of N. America. But you also see co-occurrence of publication in Europe / Greenland; South Africa; South America, and Australia. Lots of opportunities exist for scientists to study this weather pattern across the globe. Bin Guan is co-lead of Chapter 4 Global and Regional Perspectives.
- As you may expect with a emerging science, there are prevailing debates over concepts. One of the stickiest is about the relationship between ARs and related phenomena called warm conveyor belts and tropical moisture exports. Dr. Marty Ralph, the Director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography has spearheaded AR research in California bringing together scientists from around the globe to sort things out.
- https://youtu.be/4k3-VkAqNug Run from beg to end AFTER VIDEO: Marty and researchers have gained practical information about the predictability and characteristics of California’s ARs which have become keys to understanding the state’s regional water cycle and have inspired new management applications.
- This is a depiction of an atmospheric river, interacting with West Coast mountains and a midlatitude cyclone over the northeast Pacific on Feb, 5, 2015. It provides an example of approximate locations of associated tropical moisture exports (TMEs) and a warm conveyor belt (WCB).
- In June 2015, CW3E hosted the first AR workshop that gathered 30 experts to examine and untangle these relational concepts. (I was brought on board at this meeting to led the effort to write the book.) Meeting participants came from 5 continents; studies were presented from 6 continents and Greenland. The first IARC was held the next year in 2016, and was followed by AGU and AMS meetings that hosted town hall discussions on the topic. All these gatherings served to hone in on a scientific definition of an atmospheric river to clarify the concepts and relationships between ARs, TMEs and WCBs.
- As a result, experts concluding on a working definition of an AR and officially entered it in the Glossary of Meteorology in May 2017
- As I mentioned … [title]. We called it a monograph then, and we identified 7 sections to organize the book’s contents loosely based on the sessions held at the meeting. The book was determined to become the standard reference of AR science.
- We organized the book in 8 chapters plus front and back matter, ~ 400 pages, with over 150 graphics and illustrations. The electronic file management for the book is INTENSE.
- A key part of turning the book’s vision into reality was to gain a press (publisher). This involved selecting the right one for the job and getting a contract signed. Lots of ideas initially, but Springer evolved as the selected press. We were fortunate to have such high-level researchers among our Co-Editors that Springer essentially came to one of them during one of the meetings at AGU and asked “what’s new to publish?”
- Overall there are 45 people working on the book. Credit goes to everyone, but especially to Mary Beth and Sheila. Together we are ultimately responsible for bringing the book to life. We have to coordinate with everyone; we have our hands on all the moving pieces. And so far, so good. My main contribution is to organize the process: creating editorial calendars, convening trans-national conference calls, attending meetings—a complex level of organization and communication required from me to pull it together. This is when I am deep in “headset” mode at my home office! Working with this caliber of scientists has been truly rewarding. They are highly professional and intelligent people. At this point, with half the book undergoing minor revisions and the other half major revisions, we expect to deliver the final mss to Springer this winter and for the book to be available in their Atmospheric Sciences series catalog in early 2019.
- The unpredictability, strength, and intensity of AR storms can limit coordination and communication of essential information during these extreme events, potentially causing confusion and panic. We seen that with damage to the Oroville Dam spillway in Feb 2017 and mudslides in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties earlier in March of this year.
- Chris Smallcomb, a meteorologist based at the National Weather Service--Reno, is a science professional AND a public information officer. He was challenged with communicating to other meteorologists, city and government water officials, and emergency preparedness managers about the storms in winter of 2017.
- Chris actually developed and used a “Freakout” scale to give relative information. (Although many could relate, his agency ultimately didn’t like this approach.) Fortunately, there are new tools to help communicate information about an approaching AR storm. For example, Jon Rutz and others are developing and AR category scale much like the one used for hurricanes to help in this communication effort.
- So the controversy here, is with all the access to information about the weather that can be obtained easily, which information is most credible and helpful? How can information about the weather be both scientifically sound and well understood? The rise of weather “opinions” on the Internet and social media is worth noting: tweets and posts can “go viral” and the information being circulated is often unreliable. The public must work harder than ever to seek credible scientific information, apply appropriate filters, and engage in critical thinking, as they do with medical or legal advice.
- Here’s where I think sharing stories are important (of course, during non-emergency, dry periods) in California. Stories carry anecdotal and practical evidence; they carry emotion and weight and morality. This is stuff that scientists usually shy away from, but we’ve entered different times now. And we need to share stories as well as facts to engage a wider audience so we can deal with the effects of climate change and extreme weather events. As will be echoed in Enid’s film: “If we lose the stories, we end up losing a good deal of how we understand ourselves to exist within our environment.” And ultimately, we lose the ability to understand how to read our environment because we don’t understand the various phenomenon that are happening around us.
- Dr. Daniel Swain has done a tremendous job of communicating credible scientific information about weather of the Pacific Northwest, and esp. about ARs. He uses both traditional and modern outlets. Daniel hosts a blog and Twitter account that are widely read and followed by scientists and the public. And yet, earlier this year I attended his talk at the IARC in June that he titled “Storytelling in Atmospheric Science.” It was very compelling: he combined factual information with real-life stories and encouraged scientists to share more completely using both. For the public to understand, appropriately prepare for, and react to extreme weather events, researchers need to provide credible scientific information in multiple formats intended for a non-technical audience.
- Over the past 4 years I’ve gone from communicating one-on-one with fellow scientists like this … to communicating with fellow scientists to inform the public, like THIS. Why? During that time, I’ve come to believe that “the ecological and societal importance of our natural environment will most readily be communicated through a collaboration between scientists AND artists."
- My closing thoughts today are about discretion and nuance. These are keys to sharing good information. And I believe a more complete approach to science communication can be achieved through multiple messaging ---- the kind that blends the approaches behind science AND art. [READ SLIDE] We must rely on both our minds and our hearts to guide us forward. We must use both powers of deduction and induction to regain our connection to ourselves, to each other, and to the natural world to better sustain and innovate what is left for us preserve.
- Thank you for your attention this evening.
- Enid Baxter Ryce is an artist, filmmaker and musician. Her works have exhibited internationally at venues including the National Gallery of Art and The Library of Congress, D.C.; the J.P. Getty Museum, Los Angeles; Sundance, Park City; The Kunsthalle, Vienna; and many others. Her work has been written about in The New York Times, Artforum, Artreviews, The Los Angeles Times, among others. She has been the community director of the Philip Glass’ Days and Nights festival for 5 years. She has won awards for her work as an artist and arts educator and has created large-scale community-based environmental arts projects for the Crocker Museum and the Armory Center for the Arts, supported by the NEA. She is Professor of Cinematic Arts and Environmental Studies and Director of the California State University Monterey Bay Salinas Center for Arts and Culture. Please join me in welcoming Enid Baxter Ryce.