Sample Monte Carlo Output on Model of Mongolia Exports

1. Variable Criteria Pulls from DiversificationVariable Worksheet
20‐Yr CAGR REAL PRICE Changes (Period: 1952‐2014): CPI 2010100 000 $USD
  Volume   Price Median  Price   Price CV  Price Price2015 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
0.01 ‐0.0053 ‐0.001 0.03362 ‐6.34329 38.472  Price Coal 0.000% ‐3.879% 6.569% ‐1.408% ‐0.351% 3.548% ‐6.579% 3.605% 0.083% 0.923% ‐1.997% 1.852%
0.0025   Volume 38.472 36.980 39.409 38.854 38.718 40.092 37.454 38.804 38.836 39.195 38.412 39.124
25.000% Imputed CV  Volume 14,426  Volume Coal 0.000% 0.796% 0.351% 1.119% 1.187% 1.358% 0.983% 0.770% 0.589% 1.190% 1.365% 1.486%
14,426 14,541 14,592 14,755 14,930 15,133 15,282 15,399 15,490 15,674 15,888 16,124
Coal Export Value 555,000 537,716 575,047 573,298 578,065 606,702 572,357 597,557 601,578 614,357 610,305 630,845
0.01 ‐0.00953 ‐0.01523 0.030573 ‐3.20872 1542.625  Price Cu Conc. 0.000% ‐1.591% ‐1.205% ‐1.323% 5.442% ‐0.646% 1.930% ‐5.454% ‐2.121% ‐0.307% ‐3.244% ‐3.877%
0.001   Volume 1,542.625 1,518.079 1,499.790 1,479.953 1,560.488 1,550.404 1,580.329 1,494.143 1,462.455 1,457.970 1,410.679 1,355.981
10.000% Imputed CV  Volume 1,478  Volumev Cu Conc. 0.000% 0.903% 1.036% 0.961% 0.941% 1.075% 1.182% 0.849% 1.087% 0.874% 0.970% 0.931%
1,478 1,491 1,507 1,521 1,536 1,552 1,570 1,584 1,601 1,615 1,631 1,646
Copper Conc. Export Value 2,280,000 2,263,975 2,259,870 2,251,415 2,396,273 2,406,389 2,481,818 2,366,397 2,341,390 2,354,622 2,300,340 2,231,723
0.01 ‐0.00339 0.00533 0.02969 ‐8.75811 44.817  Price Iron Ore 0.000% 0.010% 1.003% 1.236% ‐5.143% ‐0.932% 1.166% ‐0.514% ‐0.495% 4.616% ‐0.923% ‐1.780%
0.0025   Volume 44.817 44.822 45.271 45.831 43.474 43.069 43.571 43.347 43.133 45.124 44.707 43.912
25.000% Imputed CV  Volume 5,065  Volume Iron Ore 0.000% 0.838% 0.496% 0.516% 0.990% 1.103% 0.843% 0.628% 1.264% 0.846% 0.823% 1.134%
5,065 5,107 5,133 5,159 5,210 5,268 5,312 5,346 5,413 5,459 5,504 5,566
2015 Avg. Iron ore/conc. Export Value 227,000 228,924 232,368 236,454 226,515 226,879 231,459 231,717 233,484 246,328 246,065 244,426
47.57222
0.01 0.03183 0.04598 0.0486 1.526861 39.000  Price Crude Oil 0.000% 2.538% 5.915% 2.802% 1.086% 4.650% 1.746% 0.613% 4.139% 10.987% 8.659% 5.239%
0.001   Volume 47.572 39.990 42.355 43.542 44.015 46.062 46.866 47.154 49.105 54.500 59.219 62.322
10.000% Imputed CV  Volume 8,135  Volume Crude Oil 0.000% 1.191% 0.936% 1.008% 1.156% 0.980% 1.112% 1.086% 1.094% 1.169% 0.974% 0.934%
8,135 8,232 8,309 8,393 8,490 8,573 8,668 8,762 8,858 8,962 9,049 9,133
Crude Oil Export Value 387,000 329,194 351,930 365,439 373,679 394,888 406,251 413,178 434,983 488,419 535,877 569,214
0.01 ‐0.00266 ‐0.00075 0.02061 ‐7.74812 1214.286  Price Zinc Ore 0.000% ‐0.795% 2.688% ‐0.148% ‐1.128% 0.948% ‐4.398% 1.350% ‐0.696% ‐6.136% 0.780% ‐2.026%
0.001   Volume 1,214.286 1,204.628 1,237.010 1,235.184 1,221.256 1,232.835 1,178.617 1,194.530 1,186.212 1,113.421 1,122.104 1,099.369
10.000% Imputed CV  Volume 84  Volume Zinc Ore 0.000% 1.209% 1.077% 1.126% 0.962% 1.118% 0.910% 1.112% 0.930% 0.819% 1.015% 0.998%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 94
Zinc Conc Export Value 102,000 102,412 106,298 107,336 107,146 109,371 105,512 108,126 108,371 102,554 104,404 103,309
0.01 0.022412 0.030887 0.040349 1.800369 37115.402  Price Non‐Money Gold 0.000% 2.036% ‐0.648% 11.699% 3.040% 4.827% 4.512% 4.883% ‐1.660% 4.556% ‐0.103% 6.441%
0.001   Volume 37,115.402 37,871.148 37,625.721 42,027.559 43,305.065 45,395.585 47,443.670 49,760.546 48,934.620 51,163.886 51,111.318 54,403.401
10.000% Imputed CV  Volume 11  Volume Non‐Money Gold 0.000% 1.018% 1.087% 1.047% 1.225% 1.005% 1.134% 1.064% 0.879% 0.727% 0.857% 0.989%
11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13
Non‐money Gold Export Value 421,000 433,946 435,819 491,901 513,061 543,233 574,178 608,627 603,784 635,880 640,673 688,680
0.01 ‐0.00339 0.00533 0.02969 ‐8.75811 235.714  Price Calcite 0.000% 0.239% ‐4.030% 5.779% ‐4.407% ‐1.181% ‐2.638% ‐4.570% ‐2.757% 0.561% ‐3.078% 0.598%
0.0025   Volume 235.714 236.279 226.757 239.861 229.289 226.582 220.605 210.524 204.720 205.869 199.533 200.725
25.000% Imputed CV  Volume 280  Volume Calcite 0.000% 1.118% 1.018% 0.928% 0.962% 0.851% 1.044% 1.041% 0.973% 1.034% 0.799% 1.443%
280 283 286 289 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313
Calcite etc. Export Value 66,000 66,897 64,855 69,240 66,825 66,598 65,518 63,175 62,031 63,024 61,573 62,834
0.01 ‐0.00339 0.00533 0.02969 ‐8.75811 5800.000  Price Molybdenum 0.000% 3.794% ‐0.599% 3.697% 1.270% 0.002% ‐5.724% ‐1.369% 0.148% 1.190% 1.140% 1.298%
0.0015   Volume 5,800.000 6,020.068 5,983.989 6,205.189 6,284.024 6,284.145 5,924.420 5,843.296 5,851.947 5,921.596 5,989.093 6,066.858
15.000% Imputed CV  Volume 5  Volume Molybdenum 0.000% 0.655% 1.015% 1.269% 0.842% 0.891% 0.891% 1.230% 1.094% 1.015% 1.080% 1.224%
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
Molybdenum Conc. Export Value 29,000 30,298 30,421 31,946 32,625 32,916 31,308 31,259 31,648 32,350 33,072 33,912
Minerals Contribution 4,067,000 3,993,362 4,056,608 4,127,029 4,294,188 4,386,977 4,468,402 4,420,036 4,417,270 4,537,534 4,532,308 4,564,943
0.02 0.02 0 0.002 0 39.495  Price Washed Cashmere 0.000% 2.210% 1.587% 1.843% 2.179% 2.180% 1.862% 2.115% 1.930% 1.714% 1.731% 2.269%
0.001   Volume 39.495 40.368 41.008 41.764 42.674 43.604 44.416 45.356 46.231 47.023 47.838 48.923
5.000% Imputed CV  Volume 4,988  Volume Washed Cashmere 0.000% 1.888% 2.031% 2.048% 1.935% 2.048% 2.100% 1.845% 2.124% 1.965% 2.096% 1.978%
4,988 5,082 5,185 5,292 5,394 5,505 5,620 5,724 5,845 5,960 6,085 6,205
Washed Cashmere Export Value 197,000 205,156 212,646 221,000 230,185 240,020 249,622 259,605 270,236 280,268 291,095 303,589
0.02 0.02 0 0.002 0 73.345  Price Combed Cashmere 0.000% 1.965% 2.035% 1.605% 2.083% 2.143% 2.414% 1.917% 1.676% 1.850% 1.766% 1.772%
0.001   Volume 73.345 74.787 76.308 77.533 79.148 80.844 82.796 84.383 85.798 87.385 88.929 90.505
5.000% Imputed CV  Volume 559  Volume Combed Cashmere 0.000% 2.088% 2.111% 2.074% 2.008% 2.061% 2.099% 2.080% 2.050% 2.047% 1.938% 1.874%
559 571 583 595 607 619 632 645 659 672 685 698
Combed Cashmere Export Value 41,000 42,678 44,466 46,117 48,023 50,062 52,347 54,461 56,509 58,733 60,929 63,171
Cashmere Contribution 238,000 247,834 257,112 267,117 278,208 290,082 301,969 314,065 326,744 339,001 352,024 366,760
0.035 0.05 0 0.000001 0 626.585  Price Tourists 0.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000% 5.000%
0.007   Volume 626.585 657.914 690.811 725.351 761.618 799.699 839.685 881.669 925.752 972.040 1,020.642 1,071.674
20.000% Imputed CV  Volume 408  Volume Tourists 0.000% 2.690% 3.949% 3.114% 3.580% 4.075% 3.405% 2.606% 2.840% 4.884% 4.052% 2.845%
408 419 436 449 465 484 501 514 528 554 576 593
Tourists Export Value 255,645 275,648 300,862 325,741 354,274 387,147 420,347 452,866 489,010 538,541 588,383 635,381
0.02 0.02 0 0.000001 0 109355.000  Price Unknown 0.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000% 2.000%
0.00002   Volume 109,355.000 111,542.137 113,773.041 116,048.353 118,369.261 120,736.746 123,151.606 125,614.446 128,126.843 130,689.358 133,303.154 135,969.412
0.100% Imputed CV  Volume 1  Volume Unknown 0.000% 2.000% 1.997% 2.001% 1.998% 1.997% 1.996% 1.998% 2.000% 1.998% 2.003% 2.002%
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
*Unknown* Export Value 109,355 113,773 118,366 123,149 128,122 133,295 138,674 144,274 150,102 156,164 162,477 169,045
Other Contribution 365,000 389,421 419,228 448,890 482,396 520,441 559,021 597,140 639,113 694,705 750,860 804,426
2015 Exports 2016 Exports 2017 Exports 2018 Exports 2019 Exports 2020 Exports 2021 Exports 2022 Exports 2023 Exports 2024 Exports 2025 Exports 2026 Exports
Total Export Model Value 4,670,000 4,630,618 4,732,947 4,843,036 5,054,791 5,197,501 5,329,392 5,331,241 5,383,127 5,571,240 5,635,193 5,736,129
Growth Rate ‐0.843% 2.210% 2.326% 4.372% 2.823% 2.538% 0.035% 0.973% 3.495% 1.148% 1.791%
Mean 1.897%
Median
StDev
Mongol Exports to GDP (CAGR Real Prices) 1.887%