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Daily Commodity Report

                                                                                                               21st December 2012

                     Gold           Silver             Crude       MCX GOLD (5 FEBRUARY 13) –
 20-Dec-12
                                                                   Gold opened higher at 30844 and managed to move higher to
 Expiry             5-Feb-13        5-Mar-13           21-Jan-13   touch an intra-day high of 30969. However, it failed to sustain
 Open                 30,844             59,501            4,944   higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low 30370. It ended
                                                                   the day with moderate losses to close at 30482.
 High                 30,969             59,914            4,989

 Low                  30,370             57,223            4,925   The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
                                                                   averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
 Close                30,482             57,351            4,977   Stochastic and RSI both are placed in the over sold zone, which
 Prev. Close          30,819             59,607            4,947   would lead to short covering at regular intervals. The -DI line is
                                                                   placed above the +DI line and is also placed above the 36 level,
 % Change             -1.09%             -3.78%           0.61%
                                                                   indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCX Gold faces resistance
Source – MCX                                                       at 30758, 30837 30916 and 31559 while the support levels are
                                                                   placed at and 30475, 30366, 30150 and 29607.
                    Volume (In 000's)
                                                                   MCX SILVER (5 MARCH 13) –
                   20-Dec-12       19-Dec-12             % Chg.    Silver opened lower at 59501 and managed to move higher to
 Gold (gms)          52,562.0           52,417.0          0.28%    touch an intra-day high of 59914 However, it failed to sustain
                                                                   higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low 57223. It ended
 Silver (kgs)         3,255.9            2,588.8         25.77%    the day with large losses to close at 57351.
 Crude (bbl)         19,330.4           22,110.7        -12.57%
                                                                   The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective
Source – MCX                                                       averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the
                                                                   Stochastic and RSI both are placed in the over sold zone, which
                   Turnover (In Lacs)                              would lead to short covering at regular intervals. The -DI line is
                                                                   placed above the +DI line and is also placed above the 43 level,
                   20-Dec-12       19-Dec-12             % Chg.
                                                                   indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces resistance
Gold              1,614,460.2     1,619,032.6            -0.28%    at 59483, 61484 and 63224 while the supports are placed at
                                                                   57049, 56372 and 55952 levels.
Silver            1,905,173.1     1,554,526.9            22.56%

Crude               957,285.3     1,084,406.5           -11.72%    MCX CRUDE (21 JANUARY 13) –
                                                                   Crude opened lower at 4944 and moved further lower to touch an
Source – MCX                                                       intra-day low of 4925. However, it managed to move higher to
                                                                   touch an intra-day high of 4989. It ended the day with moderate
                Global Market (Nymex - $)                          gains to close at 4977.
                        21/12/2012        20/12/2012     % Chg.
                                                                   The RSI and the Stochastic are placed above their respective
Gold (oz)                   1,641.50        1,645.90     -0.27%    averages, which would lead to buying support. However, the
Silver (oz)                     29.78          29.68      0.34%    Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to
                                                                   profit taking at regular intervals. The +DI line is placed above the
WTI Crude (bbl)                 88.99          90.13     -1.26%
                                                                   –DI line and is also placed above the 34 level indicating buyers are
Brent Crude (bbl)            109.44           110.20     -0.69%    gaining strength. It faces resistance at 4999, 5085 and 5125 while
Dollar Index                    79.39          79.25      0.18%
                                                                   the supports are placed at 4788, 4755, and 4727

Source – www.cmegroup.com                                          Positional Call – BUY MCX CRUDE (21 JANUARY 13)              above
                                                                   4950, Stop Loss 4871 Target of 5125

                                                                   Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research)
                                                                   Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in

                                                                   NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing
                                                                   Basis

                                                               Keynote Capitals Ltd.
            The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                  www.keynotecapitals.com
Commodity News:
Gold drops to near 4-month low on year-end selling
Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday to hit their lowest in nearly four months after breaking through a
critical support level on charts at $1,661 an ounce, weighed by year-end investor selling. Spot Gold was down 1.08
percent at $1,648.59 an ounce at 1517 GMT, having hit a low of $1,646.94 after falling through strong support at its
200-day moving average, a closely watched support level. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.98
percent to $1,651.40.
Pepper futures fall on weak exports
Indian pepper futures fell on Thursday on subdued demand from overseas buyers due to higher prices of the local
produce in the global market and expectations of an increase in output. As of 1010 GMT, the most-active February
pepper contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell 0.48 per cent to Rs 35,600 per
100 kg.
Source: ET


Economic Calendar:

                                                                                               Wednesday
  Countries /                  Friday                           Monday
                                                                                                 26/Dec
   Regions                     21/Dec                           24/Dec
                                                                                       M3 Money Supply (Dec 23)
     India




                      Personal Income (MoM)                                            MBA Mortgage Applications
      US
                               (Nov)
                    Reuters/Michigan Consumer                                         Richmond Fed Manufacturing
                      Sentiment Index (Dec)                                                  Index (Dec)




                    UK Gross Domestic Product          Japan Corporate Service
    Global
                           (QoQ) (Q3)                     Price (YoY) (Nov)
                                                        UK Nationwide Housing
                      UK Current Account (Q3)
                                                        Prices s.a (MoM) (Dec)




                                                  Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com
Disclaimer
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This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not
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would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or
take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the
use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price
and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.
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                                                           Keynote Capitals Ltd.
           The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088.
                                                 www.keynotecapitals.com

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Keynote commodity daily report for 211212

  • 1. Daily Commodity Report 21st December 2012 Gold Silver Crude MCX GOLD (5 FEBRUARY 13) – 20-Dec-12 Gold opened higher at 30844 and managed to move higher to Expiry 5-Feb-13 5-Mar-13 21-Jan-13 touch an intra-day high of 30969. However, it failed to sustain Open 30,844 59,501 4,944 higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low 30370. It ended the day with moderate losses to close at 30482. High 30,969 59,914 4,989 Low 30,370 57,223 4,925 The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Close 30,482 57,351 4,977 Stochastic and RSI both are placed in the over sold zone, which Prev. Close 30,819 59,607 4,947 would lead to short covering at regular intervals. The -DI line is placed above the +DI line and is also placed above the 36 level, % Change -1.09% -3.78% 0.61% indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCX Gold faces resistance Source – MCX at 30758, 30837 30916 and 31559 while the support levels are placed at and 30475, 30366, 30150 and 29607. Volume (In 000's) MCX SILVER (5 MARCH 13) – 20-Dec-12 19-Dec-12 % Chg. Silver opened lower at 59501 and managed to move higher to Gold (gms) 52,562.0 52,417.0 0.28% touch an intra-day high of 59914 However, it failed to sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low 57223. It ended Silver (kgs) 3,255.9 2,588.8 25.77% the day with large losses to close at 57351. Crude (bbl) 19,330.4 22,110.7 -12.57% The Stochastic and the RSI are placed below their respective Source – MCX averages, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic and RSI both are placed in the over sold zone, which Turnover (In Lacs) would lead to short covering at regular intervals. The -DI line is placed above the +DI line and is also placed above the 43 level, 20-Dec-12 19-Dec-12 % Chg. indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCX Silver faces resistance Gold 1,614,460.2 1,619,032.6 -0.28% at 59483, 61484 and 63224 while the supports are placed at 57049, 56372 and 55952 levels. Silver 1,905,173.1 1,554,526.9 22.56% Crude 957,285.3 1,084,406.5 -11.72% MCX CRUDE (21 JANUARY 13) – Crude opened lower at 4944 and moved further lower to touch an Source – MCX intra-day low of 4925. However, it managed to move higher to touch an intra-day high of 4989. It ended the day with moderate Global Market (Nymex - $) gains to close at 4977. 21/12/2012 20/12/2012 % Chg. The RSI and the Stochastic are placed above their respective Gold (oz) 1,641.50 1,645.90 -0.27% averages, which would lead to buying support. However, the Silver (oz) 29.78 29.68 0.34% Stochastic is placed in the over bought zone, which would lead to profit taking at regular intervals. The +DI line is placed above the WTI Crude (bbl) 88.99 90.13 -1.26% –DI line and is also placed above the 34 level indicating buyers are Brent Crude (bbl) 109.44 110.20 -0.69% gaining strength. It faces resistance at 4999, 5085 and 5125 while Dollar Index 79.39 79.25 0.18% the supports are placed at 4788, 4755, and 4727 Source – www.cmegroup.com Positional Call – BUY MCX CRUDE (21 JANUARY 13) above 4950, Stop Loss 4871 Target of 5125 Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research) Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing Basis Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 2. Commodity News: Gold drops to near 4-month low on year-end selling Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday to hit their lowest in nearly four months after breaking through a critical support level on charts at $1,661 an ounce, weighed by year-end investor selling. Spot Gold was down 1.08 percent at $1,648.59 an ounce at 1517 GMT, having hit a low of $1,646.94 after falling through strong support at its 200-day moving average, a closely watched support level. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.98 percent to $1,651.40. Pepper futures fall on weak exports Indian pepper futures fell on Thursday on subdued demand from overseas buyers due to higher prices of the local produce in the global market and expectations of an increase in output. As of 1010 GMT, the most-active February pepper contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) fell 0.48 per cent to Rs 35,600 per 100 kg. Source: ET Economic Calendar: Wednesday Countries / Friday Monday 26/Dec Regions 21/Dec 24/Dec M3 Money Supply (Dec 23) India Personal Income (MoM) MBA Mortgage Applications US (Nov) Reuters/Michigan Consumer Richmond Fed Manufacturing Sentiment Index (Dec) Index (Dec) UK Gross Domestic Product Japan Corporate Service Global (QoQ) (Q3) Price (YoY) (Nov) UK Nationwide Housing UK Current Account (Q3) Prices s.a (MoM) (Dec) Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  • 3. Disclaimer This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com