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Special Report 11 April 2019 Epic Research
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
Global markets at a glance
Technology stocks led Wall Street slightly higher on
Wednesday, as US inflation data proved to be benign and
the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting
were unsurprising.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
6.58 points, or 0.03 percent, to 26,157.16, the S&P 500
gained 10.01 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,888.21, and the
Nasdaq Composite added 54.97 points, or 0.69 percent, to
7,964.24.
Asian stocks held near eight-month highs on Thursday and
the dollar slipped again on expectations global interest
rates will stay lower for longer after a dovish turn by the
European Central Bank and milder than expected US
inflation.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan paused after four straight days of gains but
held near its highest since last August. Japan’s Nikkei eased
0.2 percent as the yen strengthened.Trends on SGX Nifty
indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a
rise of 17.5 points or 0.15 percent. Nifty futures were
trading around 11,669-level on the Singaporean Exchange.
PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF
Indian equity markets continued to remain volatile,
shedding yesterday’s gain as both Nifty and Bank Nifty
posted a sharp sell-off in closing hour of the trade.Major
heavyweights like Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints
closed at intraday lows, shedding 2-3% backed by a build-
up of heavy short positions. Nifty midcap 50 index
o u t p e r f o r m e d t h e b e n c h m a r k i n d e x .
Market breadth ended in the favour of the declines with
advance/decline ratio closing at 1:1xNifty and Bank Nifty
futures added fresh open interest, indicating marginal build
-up of short positions. On the options front (April 11, 2019
expiry), across the board unwinding of short positions in
put option strikes was seen with Nifty 11600PE shedding
5.13 lakh shares in open positions.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in
dices performed as follow; Commodities[-17.5pts],
Consumption[-16.5ts],PSE[-5.75pts],CPSE[-0.55pts],Energy
[-41.35pts],FMCG[-24.30pts],Auto[+21.7pts],Pharma
[+74.60pts],IT[-122.45pts],Metal[-28.45pts],Realty
[+3.10pts], Fin Serv sector[-141.45pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 26157 +0.03
S&P500 2888 +0.35
NASDAQ 7964 +0.69
FTSE100 7421 -0.05
NIKKEI 21627 -0.28
HANG SENG 29822 -0.99
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Tata Motors 216.05 10.15 4.93
Cipla 546.45 14.45 2.72
Wipro 281 7.2 2.63
HUL 1,694.15 13.65 0.81
IOC 156.6 1.2 0.77
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Bharti Airtel 340 -11.6 -3.3
Hindalco 211.7 -5.45 -2.51
TCS 2,040.25 -51.25 -2.45
Asian Paints 1,409.85 -35 -2.42
HDFC Bank 2,237.35 -49.9 -2.18
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
BALAXI 55.9 2.65 4.98
BILENERGY 4.65 0.2 4.49
HONAUT 24,245.00 927.35 3.98
J&KBANK 65.75 4.2 7.02
ICICIGI 1,097.00 23.9 2.23
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 11584 -87.7 -0.57
SENSEX 38585 -353 -0.91
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
ANGIND 0.85 0.05 5.88
ATNINTER 0.05 0 0
CANDC 8.75 0.4 4.35
DNAMEDIA 0.95 0 0
GANDHITUBE 333 -4 -1.15
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
INFY
INFOSYS — Stock is taking a support of trendline on
weekly chart & also forming a Cup & Handle . Quarterly
result of company is on April 12,2019. Our
recommendation is to Buy Infosys 760-762 Target
770/780 maintain Sl below 750. Market expectation from
company is high on revenue front as we compare with its
peers like TCS , HCL Tech .
MACRO NEWS
The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates
unchanged this year given risks to the US economy
from a global slowdown and uncertainty over trade
policies and financial conditions, according to the
minutes from its March 19-20 policy meeting. The US
central bank pivoted abruptly at that meeting to a
much-less aggressive posture, and the minutes
released on Wednesday showed policymakers agreed
to be “patient” about making any moves on rates.“A
majority of participants expected that the evolution of
the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would
likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for
the remainder of the year,” according to the minutes.
The mutual fund closed the year with an 11,41 percent
rise in their total assets under management at Rs
23.80 lakh crore in the year to March, from Rs 21.36
lakh crore in the previous year, according to the
industry data released Wednesday. On a monthly
basis, AUM grew 2.73 percent from Rs 23.16 lakh
crore in February.
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. HAVELLS [FUTURE ]
HAVELLS — Stock is trading in channel line & Hammer
pattern form on daily chart . Stock is al;so taking a support of
trend line .RSI & MACD also indicating Buying in this
stock .Our recommendation is to Buy stock future in the
range 767 Target 770-775 maintain sl below 764
2. PVR [FUTURE]
PVR — On weekly chart stock giveen breakout & created
bullish hammer candle stick pattern .Our view on the
technical basis is to buy stock future in range 1698 Target
1706/1720 Sl below 1690. Stock is moving above all its
important moving averages like 50,100 & 200 DEMA.
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY CE 30,200 20.5 8,60,095 7,44,580
BANKNIFTY CE 30,300 12.5 8,35,705 8,72,660
BANKNIFTY CE 30,500 6 7,24,686 9,68,220
TATAMOTORS CE 220 6.3 12,017 42,70,000
TATAMOTORS CE 210 11.3 8,222 38,46,000
HDFCBANK CE 2,300 20.9 7,181 6,08,500
TATAMOTORS CE 240 1.6 6,636 28,88,000
TCS CE 2,100 40.4 6,439 10,17,750
MARUTI CE 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY PE 29,800 89 8,42,980 5,87,160
BANKNIFTY PE 30,000 210 7,63,943 3,82,080
BANKNIFTY PE 29,900 141 7,47,792 2,46,620
TATAMOTORS PE 200 2.4 5,249 47,04,000
HDFCBANK PE 2,240 27.7 4,960 4,56,250
TATAMOTORS PE 210 4.8 4,816 24,40,000
RELIANCE PE 1,320 22.8 4,058 8,33,000
HDFCBANK PE 2,260 38.05 3,531 1,67,750
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 32133 2502.42 37841 2714.04 240280 19178.40 -211.6197
INDEX OPTIONS 2541036 169965.85 2535145 169579.99 892864 70118.52 385.8576
STOCK FUTURES 179575 11091.11 182036 11319.09 1383520 89865.34 -227.9867
STOCK OPTIONS 93826 5794.49 93730 5774.43 109361 6870.88 20.0653
-33.6835
SELL
STOCKS IN NEWS
Info Edge: Company has invested through its wholly-
owned subsidiary Rs 6 crore in Bizcrum Infotech Private
Ltd.
Avenue Supermarts: Company raised Rs 50 crore via
commercial papers.
Ashok Leyland: Promoter pledged 1.33 percent stake in
the company.
NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On weekly chart Nifty close with
green candle,during this week nifty was traded in a
brode range of 235 points. first phase of election April
17,2019 . In last week FII infuse more than 6000 cr &
selling by DII in cash Rs 435 cr, which was less as we
compare to last week data . AfterOn Nifty we may
expect new all time high will see before starting analysis
of data suggest that 11500-11600 work as support & OI
addtion seen in 11700-11800 works as resistance . Our
recommendation is to Buy Nifty 50 in the range 11450-
11500 Target 11550/11600 SL below 11350.
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 11720 11652 11612 11544 11503
BANKNIFTY 30296 30050 29909 29662 29521
4. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold held steady near a two-week high on Wednesday as
world equities retreated after the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) cut its global growth outlook ahead of the
release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's March
meeting.Spot gold XAU= was unchanged at $1,304.35 an
ounce at 1009 GMT, having touched its highest since March
28 on Tuesday at $1,306.09. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were
flat at $1,308.50.
"It (gold) seems to be very much stuck at the moment ...
part of the issue is most of the developments haven't really
been much of a surprise to the market," said Capital
Economics analyst Ross Strachan, adding that the growth
downgrade by the IMF was also widely anticipated.Gold was
also supported by central bank purchases and a significant
move lower in U.S. equity markets will boost prices,
Strachan said.The IMF had said on Tuesday that the global
economy is slowing more than expected and a sharp
downturn could require world leaders to coordinate
stimulus measures. banks around the world were increasing
their gold stockpiles, with China raising its reserves for a
fourth straight month in March. is widely viewed as a safe
investment during times of political and economic
uncertainty.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday back towards five-month
highs hit the previous day as OPEC production cuts and U.S.
sanctions on Iran and Venezuela continued to tighten
supply, although economic worries increased.International
benchmark Brent futures LCOc1 were at $70.92 per barrel
at 0900 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.44 percent, from their last
close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 oil
futures were at $64.33 per barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.55
percent, from their last settlement.
Oil markets have tightened this year because of U.S.
sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as
supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and some non-affiliated producers including
Russia, a group known as OPEC+.Brent and WTI crude oil
futures have risen by around 30 percent and 40 percent
respectively since the start of the year.The global oil market
is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to OPEC+
production cuts," ING bank said.
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
GOLD BUY ABOVE 32155 Target 32200/32250 Sl 32050
GOLD SELL BELOW 32000 Target 31950/31900 Sl 32100
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
Silver Buy Above 38500 Target 38500/38600 Sl 38400
Silver Sell Below 38450 Target 38400/38300 Sl 38550
5. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Castor Seed 4100 -0.46
Chana 6268 -1.72
Coriander 1936 -1.14
Cotton Seed Oilcake 4146.5 0.33
Guar Seed 10 MT 15440 0.03
Jeera 3840 -0.42
Mustardseed 3637 -0.55
Soy Bean 6238 0.64
Turmeric 6148 0.29
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARGUM5
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GUARGUM APR ABOVE 9050 TGT 9080/9140/9190 SL
BELOW 9000
SELL GUARGUM APR BELOW 8909 TGT 8879/8819/8769 SL
ABOVE 8959
DHANIYA
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 7189 TGT 7204/7264/7334 SL
BELOW 7159
SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 6965 TGT 6950/6890/6820
SL ABOVE 6995
In March 2019, the International Coffee Organization (ICO)
composite indicator fell by 3.1 per cent to 97.50 US cents
per pound, the lowest monthly average since October 2006,
when the price was 95.53 US cents per pound.The ICO
reports that price movements for all group indicators have
fallen, contributing to the low composite indicator.Prices
for Brazilian Naturals decreased 4.2 per cent to 95.81 US
cents per pound, which is the lowest price for this group
since July 2006.Colombian Minds declined 2.1 per cent to
125.23 US cents per pound with Other Minds fell 3.6 per
cent to 123.89 US cents per pound.On the production side,
Central America and Mexico is estimated to decline 0.5 per
cent to 21.72 million bags, accounting for the fall in Other
Milds group exports this coffee year.Similarly, output in Asia
and Oceania is estimated to decrease two per cent to 48.18
million bags, due to lower than expected yields.Vietnam’s
exports in February 2019 fell 22.7 per cent to 1.7 million
b a g s c o m p a r e d t o F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 8 .
The ICO reveals that Africa’s production is to remain stable
at 17.74 million bags, which is an increase of 1.4 per cent.
This reflected growth is due to its shipments in the first five
months of coffee year 2018/19, which doubled to 617,241
bags, reflecting the ample supply of coffee on the
international market.World production in coffee year
2018/19 is estimated at 168.05 million bags while
consumption is estimated at 164.99 million bags, creating a
surplus of 3.06 million bags. This follows a surplus of 4.16
million bags in coffee year 2017/18.Prospects of a large off-
year crop from Brazil and increased exports in each month
of 2018/19 compared to the previous year are contributing
to the sustained low prices.
6. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 69.3350 Yen 62.4725
Euro 78.4 GBP 90.93
USD/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
USD/INR
BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.35 TGT 69.45/69.55 SL BELOW 69.2
SELL USDINR BELOW 69.2 TGT 69.1/69 SL ABOVE 69.35
GBP/IN
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91 TGT 91.2/91.5 SL BELOW 90.9
SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.8 TGT 90.7/90.6 SL ABOVE 91
The Hong Kong dollar jumped the most since December on
Wednesday, as short-sellers were burned by spiking
borrowing costs.The exchange rate strengthened as much
as 0.14 percent, moving away from the weak end of its
trading band, where it had been stuck for weeks. It pared
the advance to 0.05 percent as of 5:24 p.m. local time. The
Hong Kong Monetary Authority has spent $2.8 billion since
the start of March to defend the peg.The currency’s
forward points have surged, with the one-month tenor
touching the highest level since September, reflecting
tighter liquidity and thus higher costs for traders to build
bearish wagers. The Hong Kong dollar’s interbank interest
rates, known as Hibor, also climbed, with the one-month
cost rising the most this year Wednesday.Some short carry
trade unwinding is reasonable,” said Stephen Chiu, foreign-
exchange and rates strategist at China Construction Bank
Asia Corp. “This movement could be temporary -- the
interbank liquidity situation wasn’t that bad, so the Hong
Kong dollar rates should soften again in the future. And we
do expect the U.S. rates to rebound.”
A gap between borrowing costs in the city and the U.S.
fueled weakness in the Hong Kong dollar in March, as
traders sold the local currency and put the proceeds in the
higher-yielding greenback. That spread has narrowed,
partly thanks to intervention, from almost 1.6 percentage
points in February to 43 basis points -- making shorting the
Hong Kong currency a less lucrative trade. Gains in local
equities this year could also be contributing to the
advance, as investors purchase the city’s currency to chase
the rally, according to Ryan Lam, head of research at
Shanghai Commercial Bank Ltd. The Hang Seng
Index closed at the highest since June on Tuesday, before
slipping 0.1 percent Wednesday.The Norwegian crown
rallied to its highest level against the euro in five months
on Wednesday after stronger-than-expected inflation data
raised expectations of another rate hike from the central
bank in the coming months .Core CPI for March came in at
2.7 percent compared to market expectations of 2.5
percent, supporting the view that near-term inflation is
holding up in an economy that is also benefiting from
higher commodity prices.
8. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
9:45 am Markit manufacturing index flash Nov. -- 55.7
9:45 am Markit services index flash Nov. -- 54.8
TIME (ET) REPORT
PER
IOD
ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK.
MONDAY, APRIL 8
10 am Factory orders* (new date)
Feb
.
0.1%
TUESDAY, APRIL 9
6 am NFIB small business index
Ma
rch
101.7
10 am Job openings
Feb
.
7.6 mln
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10
8:30 am Consumer price index
Ma
rch
0.2%
8:30 am Core CPI
Ma
rch
0.1%
2 pm FOMC minutes
2 pm Federal budget
Ma
rch
-$125bln
THURSDAY, APRIL 11
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 4/6 -- --
8:30 am Producer price index
Ma
rch
0.1%
FRIDAY, APRIL 12
8:30 am Import price index
Ma
rch
0.6%
10 am Consumer sentiment index
Apr
il
98.4
*DELAYED BY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
9. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
11 –APR -2019
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Sachin
Yadav
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Location:
Date: 2019-04-11
09:15+05:30