*MONTHLY MARKET MIRROR* ● Nifty Monthly View ● Bank Nifty Monthly View ● Valuation Matrics ● Macroeconomics Indictor ● Fundamental Stocks Pick - 2 ● Technical Stock Pick - 2 ● Derivative Outlook

1. 28 SEPTEMBER 2019
MONTHLY MARKET
MIRROR

2. 28 SEPTEMBER 2019
2
Key levels
Moving averages Support Resistance
30 day EMA 11640.80 11210.10 11640.35
50 day EMA 11726.95 11141.75 11475.75
200 day EMA 11135.95 11100.20 11368.30
Nifty 50 has made a "Wide Ranging Day" bullish pattern a powerful indicator of trend reversal.
Market has also reversed from its previous support levels of 10650 completing an important down
cycle. Market will continue to move higher with intermittent deep corrections which should not shake
the confidence of long traders. 11000 -11100 are good levels to go long. Buy on decline should be a
strategy for traders and short selling should be avoided.
Buy on dips would be the preferred strategy for Nifty in the short term. Positional traders can look to
initiate a fresh long position near 11,400-11,380. The short-term targets on the higher side will be the
recent high of 11,694 and the 78.6 per cent retracement of the June–August decline i.e. 11,790
Index
Monthly
Closing
Monthly High Monthly Low
Monthly
Change
Monthly
Change %
Nifty 11,512.40 11,694.40 10,960.80 1130 4.44%

3. 28 SEPTEMBER 2019
2
Index
Monthly
Closing
Monthly High Monthly Low
Monthly
Change
Monthly
Change %
Bank Nifty 29,876.65 30794.40 26,645.90 2448.8 8.93%
Key levels
Moving averages Support Resistance
30 day EMA 30502.25 28902.10 29549.15
50 day EMA 30704.20 28565.20 29758.20
200 day EMA 28249.31 28147.35 30102.35
Bank Nifty consolidated for the most part of the day as it traded in the range between 29,700 to 30,100
levels. The index closed 0.42 percent lower at 29,876.65 and formed a small-bodied candle on the
daily scale while Long-legged Doji on a weekly scale.
It is finding multiple supports near 29,500 levels while hurdles are intact at higher zones. Now it has to
continue to hold above 29,750 to extend its gains towards 30,500 then 30,750 levels while on the
downside support is seen at 29,400 then 29,250 levels.

4. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
Valuation Metrics
Monthly Equity Strategy
Nifty Price Book
Ratio, Dividend Yield
12 Month rolling forward
P/E (X)

5. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
Valuation Metrics
Monthly Equity Strategy
FII Flows (INR bn)
(Monthly)
DII Flows (INR bn)
(Monthly)

6. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
Valuation Metrics
Macro Economic Indicators
GDP Growth
IIP DATA

7. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
Valuation Metrics
Performance Report
Performance of Sectoral
Indices MOM
Performance of Sectoral
Indices - YoY
-50.00%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
Series 1
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Series 1

8. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
MARKET STATISTICS
TOP GAINERS
Company Name LTP
Prev
Close
Change
Change
(%)
Volume ('000s)
B P C L 469.8 350.55 119.25 34.02 10949127
Bombay Burmah 1,188.50 893.7 294.8 32.99 112376
Sterlite Tech. 161.65 122.4 39.25 32.07 1175539
Siemens 1,509.05 1,177.95 331.1 28.11 937304
Colgate-Palm. 1,544.85 1,213.05 331.8 27.35 907962
Jubilant Life 523.9 415.8 108.1 26 243121
General Insuranc 215.9 171.5 44.4 25.89 1045956
IDBI Bank 33.6 26.75 6.85 25.61 4933687
TOP LOSERS
Company Name LTP ( )
Prev
Close ( )
Change ( )
Change
(%)
Volume ('000s)
Indian Bank 133.5 196.3 -62.8 -31.99 1042382
Zee Entertainmen 273.55 364.2 -90.65 -24.89 27027102
Yes Bank 48.75 59.5 -10.75 -18.07 306867611
Canara Bank 189.6 226.9 -37.3 -16.44 8621344
Indiabulls Vent. 154.8 182.5 -27.7 -15.18 6877045
Allahabad Bank 29.6 34.85 -5.25 -15.06 594533
Indiabulls Hous. 390.1 457.25 -67.15 -14.69 19865522
Dalmia Bhara. 816.1 930.4 -114.3 -12.29 129308

9. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
MARKET STATISTICS
VOLUME TOPPER (MONTHLY)
Company Name LTP ( )
Prev
Close
Change (
)
Change (
%)
Volume(0'000s)
Yes Bank 48.75 59.5 -10.75 -18.07 30,68,67,611
Vodafone Idea 5.65 5 0.65 13 10,73,27,275
Tata Motors 119.9 116.35 3.55 3.05 4,58,75,793
Ashok Leyland 71.9 66.75 5.15 7.72 2,65,21,149
S A I L 33.05 31.1 1.95 6.27 2,92,90,686
St Bk of India 281.2 284.9 -3.7 -1.3 3,78,51,718
Bank of Baroda 95.1 94.5 0.6 0.63 2,31,68,151
Punjab Natl.Bank 62.85 65.65 -2.8 -4.27 2,24,26,450
VALUE TOPPER (MONTHLY)
Company Name LTP ( )
Prev
Close
Change ( )
Change (%
)
Value( Lakhs)
Yes Bank 48.75 59.5 -10.75 -18.07 1,28,968.30
Maruti Suzuki 6,773.70 6,103.40 670.3 10.98 1,23,699.22
Reliance Inds. 1,309.05 1,263.30 45.75 3.62 1,15,016.63
H D F C 2,035.90 2,187.15 -151.25 -6.92 1,11,885.78
HDFC Bank 1,244.20 1,123.75 120.45 10.72 1,06,892.35
ICICI Bank 449.2 412.95 36.25 8.78 1,06,656.66
St Bk of India 281.2 284.9 -3.7 -1.3 98,507.27
Axis Bank 700.6 678.2 22.4 3.3 89,003.55

10. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Fundamental Stocks Pick
1) ICICI PRUDENTIAL
COMPANY PROFILE
CMP 402.55
TARGET 480
TIME FRAME 6 Month
NSE CODE ZEEL
BSE CODE 505537
MARKET CAP(Cr.) 34,961.00
FACE VALUE 1.00
EQ SHARE O/S 96.1 Cr.
EV (Crore) 32883.6
BOOK VALUE 92.91
Stock PE 21.73
52 WEEK HIGH 540.75
52 WEEK LOW 288.30
COMPANY SHAPSHOT
KNR is a road focused EPC player with over two
decades of experience. The company has
successfully executed more than ~6000 km road
projects across 12 states in India over the last 20
years. KNR enjoys a reputation of completing
projects on time/ahead of schedule as its bidding
strategy is focused on the following parameters:
•Project selection: It bids for projects funded by
central government. In case of state government
projects, it ensures these projects have funding
support from a multilateral agency viz. ADB and
World Bank
• Resources ownership: It focuses on owning
resources for timely raw material availability. KNR
possesses a higher fleet of equipment than its peers
and it also has its own quarrying mines at more than
90% of the project sites.
Project proximity: For efficient mobilisation of
equipment, KNR focuses on bidding projects that are
in proximity to areas where the company’s ongoing
projects are getting completed
Focus on profitability of project and
• Limited number of projects: Focus on limited but
large ticket size projects for conscious and close
monitoring on each project under execution

11. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Fundamental Stocks Pick
Zee Ltd
Valuation and Outlook
At the CMP, KNR is trading at attractive valuations of 5.6x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 11.8x FY21E
EPS. The company is a focused road based EPC player that enjoys a strong execution track
record with the reputation of completing projects on time/ahead of the schedule. KNR also
enjoys best in class WC cycle with very healthy balance sheet and strong return ratio (RoCE:
19.0% & RoE: 18.6%). Revenues and PAT have grown at a CAGR of 20.7% and
34.0%, respectively, in FY14-19.
Going ahead, with a healthy orderbook, and strong execution on captive as well as shorter
duration irrigation projects, we expect KNR’s execution to pick up and expect its revenues to
grow at 19.1% CAGR in FY19-21E.
Hence, we initiate coverage on KNR Construction with a BUY recommendation and an SoTP
based target price of | 300/ share. We value its core EPC business at | 272/share (7x FY21E
EV/EBITDA, implying 15.8x FY21 fully tax adjusted EPS). We also value its equity investment in
BOT & HAM business at | 38/share (0.8x P/BV).

12. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Fundamental Stocks Pick
2) BANK OF BARODA
COMPANY PROFILE
CMP 112.35
TARGET 126
Upside 16%
NSE CODE BANKBARODA
BSE CODE 532134
MARKET CAP(Cr.) 43295 Cr.
FACE VALUE 2.00
EQ SHARE O/S 384.67 Cr.
EV (Crore) 679866.30
BOOK VALUE 129.86
Stock PE 32.66
52 WEEK HIGH 157.50
52 WEEK LOW 90.70
COMPANY SHAPSHOT
Bank of Baroda (BoB) reported its 1QFY20 results
Hexaware is a provider of IT & BPO services with a
major presence in banking & financial services
(42.8% of topline) followed by healthcare &
insurance (17.8%), manufacturing & consumer
(15.3%) and travel & tourism (11.1%).
The company has a strategy of:
i) Automate Everything,
ii) Cloudify Everything
iii) Transform Customer Experience.
Hexaware believes this strategy is highly
differentiated and sets the stage for growth in the
long term. Based on its strategy, it has been able to
grow its rupee revenue, PAT at a CAGR of
14.7%, 18.3%, respectively, in CY16-18.
Further, the acquisition of Mobiquity will boost
revenue growth to 19.5% YoY in CY19E. Along with
strong client relationships and execution
capabilities, we expect dollar revenues to increase
at a CAGR of 17% in CY18-20E.
Attrition remains a key concern for the
company, which will have a bearing on its utilisation
and margins. However, the company is trying to
maintain its utilisation at optimum levels and curb
attrition to keep revenue, margin momentum intact

13. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Fundamental Stocks Pick
BANK OF BARODA
Valuation and Outlook
Hexaware is expected to register organic growth of 13.0% in CY19E, which is industry leading
growth.
In addition, we expect higher offshoring (due to drawdown in its top client), lower
subcontracting cost, higher organic growth and currency tailwind to boost margins.
Consequently, the company is expected to register rupee revenue and PAT CAGR of 19.9% and
16.9% over CY18-20E, respectively.
Considering the robust growth, we have a HOLD rating on Hexaware and assign a P/E multiple
of ~16x (PEG of 0.9) leading to a target price of | 440/share.

14. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Technical Stocks Pick
TINPLATE COMPANY
TECHNICAL CHART
The stock has registered a breakout above the falling channel containing the entire previous decline of
the last four months signalling resumption of up move and provides fresh entry opportunity
The immediate support for the stock is placed at | 116-120 levels as it is the confluence of the 38.2%
retracement of the current up move (| 97 to 134) and the upper band of the recent channel breakout
area placed around | 118 levels as seen in the adjacent chart
The recent breakout from the falling channel is supported by strong volume of more than three times
the 200 days average volume of 3.5 lakhs share per day signalling larger participation at the breakout
area
We expect the stock to continue with its current up move and head towards | 144 levels as it is the
61.8% retracement of the previous decline (| 174 to 88) and the almost identical high of July and
August 2019 placed at | 144 levels

15. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
STOCK ANALYSIS- MONTHLY
Technical Stocks Pick
KOTAK MAHINDRA BNK
TECHNICAL CHART
The stock has given a strong recovery from its recent low by taking a support around its rising trend-
line and is trading in a bullish higher top higher bottom chart structure.
It also given breakout of consolidation at resistance level and consolidated above the resistance level
Tracking the derivative data points, the stock added fresh open interest along with a rise in the
underlying price, clearly indicating a buildup of long positions.

16. Research Desk – Stock Quint
28 SEPTEMBER 2019
1
DERIVATIVE OUTLOOK
FOR SEP 2019 CONTRACT
The Nifty consolidated near 11500 after witnessing an up move of almost 1000 points of in two
sessions. September expiry saw the Nifty closing above the newly formed highest Put base of 11500
The noticeable Put base after 11500 is placed only at 11000, which means Put writers are sceptical of
writing closer strikes other than 11500. The noticeable Call base is also placed at 11500, which
means the Nifty may enter into short-term consolidation with immediate support at 11400.
Hence, short strangles can be done for the coming weekly expiry considering the holiday on October
Stocks from sectors like NBFCs, private banking and FMCG are likely to remain in the limelight
considering the short covering pattern seen in these spaces
As IT stocks are witnessing profit booking, the Nifty is being supported by private banking
heavyweights. This may result in a further decline in volatility, which has cooled off from 18% to
16%.

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