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October 2017
Ilias Lekkos
Paraskevi Vlachou
ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Enterprise Rating System:
Update of the rating system for small and
medium-sized Greek enterprises
Contents of Study
2Enterprise Rating System: October 2017
1. Purpose of the Study – Key Findings
2. Presentation of the ERS Results for SMEs for 2015
2a. … based on the Final ERS Rating
2b. … based on the ERS Rating per constituent Dimension
3. Appendices
3Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
1. Purpose of the Study – Key Findings
After 8 years of recession and stagnation, which were marked by the dramatic deleveraging of
the Greek economy, Greek banks - having already been capitalised three times– are again in a
position to restart the substantial financing of the Greek economy. Yet, the legacy of the
economic crisis on the Greek banking system indicates that this new effort of financing Greek
enterprises will be a very selective and gradual process.
In that respect, a question posed repeatedly not only in Greece but also by foreign analysts
and investors is whether there are creditworthy and dynamic Greek enterprises that worth
being financed which at the same time meet the strict lending criteria adopted by all banks in
the Eurozone.
General Framework of the Study
4Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
The key to this question lies in Small and Medium-sized entrepreneurship, as this is believed to be the most
dynamic part of the Greek entrepreneurship, with a high degree of dependence on domestic sources of
financing.
The importance of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) is illustrated by the fact that they account for
97.3% of the total number of enterprises systematically analysed by Piraeus Bank. In addition, SMEs contribute
41% to total turnover, while their contribution increases to 47.6% in terms of net earnings before taxes. In regard
to liabilities and debt, SME net debt accounted for 43.5% and their financial expenses for 45.8% of the total
figures.
The contribution of SMEs to the Greek entrepreneurship
5Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Key contributions of the study
6Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Focusing our attention on SMEs, we have developed a fully quantitative rating system of the total Greek
Small and Medium-sized entrepreneurship which serves four main purposes:
1. First, it allows Piraeus Bank to identify those enterprises that meet the criteria of sound financing.
2. It enhances our risk management capabilities by classifying all enterprises into four ratings according to
fully transparent and quantitative criteria.
3. It allows us to identify enterprises that although they are facing financial problems, i.e. negative
results, have a sustainable business model, i.e. positive EBITDA. We call these enterprises “turnaround
cases”, i.e. enterprises that are suitable candidates for restructuring their debt obligations with the
intention of turning them into performing cases.
4. Finally, the above model allows identifying enterprises with substantial problems, e.g. when the
operating profitability cannot even cover a minimum of their debt obligations. In these “lost cases”
banks should focus on more drastic treatments than extensions and restructurings.
7Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7
Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4
Out of a sample of 7,896 Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, 8.6% records an outstanding performance in
liquidity, profitability and solvency, thus achieving the highest rating. Another 35.7% of SMEs belongs to the next
rating with positive but less satisfactory performance. 40.4% is classified in the third rating, which means that its
performance falls behind significantly, while 15.4% of the sample is in the last rating, which means that they are
seriously problematic enterprises.
Outperformers
(8.6%)
a
676
b
2,817
c
3,189
d
1,214
good performers
(35.7%)
medium performers
(40.4%)
Underperformers
(15.4%)
Key findings (i)
SMEs per final ERS rating, 2015
8Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Outperformer “a”
• High levels of efficiency with the EBITDA margin
amounting to 24% and the return on equity to 19.3% on
average
• None of the outperformers has interest coverage ratio
less than 1
• Only 0.9% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses
before taxes
• High liquidity, with current assets covering their current
liabilities by approximately 3.9 times
• Low levels of leverage, since their debt amounts to only
half of their equity
• High level of debt servicing, since EBITDA covers financial
expenses by 21.4 times
Good performer “b”
• More conservative, but satisfactory level of operating
profitability, with EBITDA margin at 15.4%
• Profitable efficiency of equity, with the return on equity at
13%
• Only 0.7% of good performers have an interest coverage
ratio less than 1
• 7% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses before
taxes
• Lower, but satisfactory level of liquidity, since the current
assets amount to 2.5 times the current liabilities
• Higher debt levels, as liabilities exceed equity by 1.2 times
• Adequate debt service ability, since EBITDA covers
financial expenses by 11.9 times
Medium performer “c”
• Low levels of efficiency and profitability, since the EBITDA
margin is limited to 7.3% and the return on equity to
4.1%
• 22.1% of medium performers have interest coverage
ratio less than 1
• 17.7% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses
before taxes
• Satisfactory, but limited liquidity, with current assets
covering current liabilities by 1.5 times
• High net debt level, which exceeds EBITDA by 13.6 times
• Low level of debt servicing, since EBITDA covers financial
expenses by 3 times
Underperformer “d”
• Loss making, with EBITDA margin at -9.1%.
• Inefficient management of equity, with a negative
return on equity at -16.1%
• Almost all underperformers (82.5%) have an interest
coverage ratio that is less than 1
• 18.3% of underperformers have positive EBITDA and
net losses before taxes
• Liquidity difficulties, since the current liabilities exceed
the current assets (current ratio: 0.7 units)
• Overleveraged, with 3.5 times higher debt than equity
and net debt 25 times higher than EBITDA
Profile of the average SME per final ERS rating, 2015
Key findings (ii)
9Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Outperformers “a”
• As expected none but a tiny 0.9% of the total faces financial difficulties and even these enterprises are
suitable candidates for debt restructuring, as they have net losses BUT positive EBITDA.
• As expected, no enterprise has debt servicing problems, since none has interest coverage ratio less than 1.
Good performers “b”
• The percentage of possible restructuring increases to 7%.
• The percentage of problematic enterprises that have an interest coverage ratio less than 1 amounts to 0.7%.
Medium performers “c”
• The percentage of possible restructuring increases dramatically to 17.7%.
• The percentage of companies with signs of debt servicing difficulties increases to 22.1%.
Underperformers “d”
• Despite 18.3% with positive EBITDA, the final result is loss making.
• The vast majority (82.5%) has a substantial survival problem.
Key findings (iii)
10Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
An examination of the SMEs based on the rating per constituent dimension leads to following conclusions:
• Based on the liquidity rating, the lower the rating the lower the ability to cover the short-term liabilities
of SMEs. Especially, the SMEs with a “d” rating encounter serious liquidity problems.
• Accordingly, based on the profitability rating, the outperforming SMEs (“a”) which are very profitable
account only for 6.4% of the sample. Most SMEs are classified in the intermediate ratings (“b” and “c”).
On the other hand, underperforming SMEs (“d”) are on average loss making and account for more than ¼
of the sample (28.3%).
• Finally, according to the solvency rating, the highest percentage of SMEs (35.3%) are medium performers
(“c”), which compared to the enterprises with “a” and “b” ratings, are more leveraged and have a low
debt servicing level. Enterprises with a “d” rating are overleveraged and have serious debt servicing
problems.
Key findings (iv)
11Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
2. Presentation of the ERS results for SMEs for 2015
2a. … based on the final ERS rating
Based on our sample, in 2015 there were 7,896 SMEs with a turnover up to €50 mn falling within the ERS rating system criteria, which
account for 97.3% of the total final sample. Aggregately, these enterprises have a turnover of €33.1 bn, EBITDA of €2.9 bn, net profit
before taxes of €690.5 mn as well as total liabilities of €31.5 bn, net debt of €27.8 bn and financial expenses of €1.1 bn. From the
implementation of ERS, the structure of the Greek small and medium-sized entrepreneurship resembles the shape of a rhomboid. Most
SMEs are good (“b”) and medium (“c”) performers with percentages of 35.7% and 40.4% of our sample respectively. Finally, the
outperforming SMEs with an “a” rating amount only to 8.6% of the sample, while the underperformers with a “d” rating account for 15.4%
of the examined enterprises.
12Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Outperformers
(8.6%)
a
676
b
2,817
c
3,189
d
1,214
good performers
(35.7%)
medium performers
(40.4%)
Underperformers
(15.4%)
The rhomboid structure of the Greek small and medium-sized
entrepreneurship based on the ERS, 2015
SMEs per final ERS rating, 2015
13Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Outperforming SMEs rated with “a” achieved in all three examined dimensions either an “a” or a “b” rating.
Especially in terms of solvency, the enterprises had a low leverage degree and a high debt servicing, as 91.6% of
the SMEs were rated with “a”. Similarly, in terms of liquidity, the SMEs with an “a” rating can satisfactorily meet
their short-term liabilities. During the economic crisis period, even the profitability of the outperformers suffers,
since the majority of SMEs (67.3%) achieved a “b” rating in their profitability in 2015.
ERS 2015: Structure of final “a” rating per constituent dimension
14Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
SMEs rated with a “b” rating recorded a lower performance compared to those rated with “a”, which becomes even more
apparent when considering the different structure of the ratings in the individual dimensions, since now there are
enterprises with “c” and “d” ratings. Solvency is the dimension with the best performance, since 57.4% of the enterprises
were ranked with “b” and another ¼ with “a”, thus reflecting satisfactory levels of debt servicing. Respectively, the
enterprises with a “b” rating manage to cover their short-term liabilities more conservatively, but still satisfactorily. Finally,
more than half of the enterprises are rated with “b” in terms of profitability. However, 1/3 (34%) of the enterprises is rated
with “c”, indicating more moderate levels of profitability.
ERS 2015: Structure of final “b” rating per constituent dimension
15Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Most SMEs achieved a “c” rating. The big picture from the distribution of the enterprises in the examined dimensions is
that the SMEs with a “c” rating face difficulties in their operation. In particular, the dimension of solvency has the highest
percentage of enterprises with a “c” rating (67.2%), reflecting increased levels of leverage. At the same time, according to
the SME classification in the dimensions of profitability and liquidity, the enterprises are challenged by narrow liquidity
and low profitability.
ERS 2015: Structure of final “c” rating per constituent dimension
16Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
From the structure of SMEs with a “d” rating, it was observed that the enterprises achieved either a “c” or a “d” rating at
the individual dimensions, which reflects serious financial problems. These enterprises have on average accumulated
losses and in particular 91.5% of them were rated with “d” in profitability. Respectively, 86.2% of them were rated with “d”
in solvency, reflecting debt servicing difficulties and signs of overleverage. Finally, even in terms of the ability to cover
current liabilities, the liquidity problems are intense, since 81.9% of the enterprises achieved a “d” rating in the dimension
of liquidity.
ERS 2015: Structure of final “d” rating per constituent dimension
The average SME with an “a” rating appears the most efficient one compared to
SMEs classified in the other ERS ratings, since it achieves the highest profits,
without making the highest turnover. The low debt and financial expense levels are
conditions that positively affect its performance.
The performance of the average SME with a “b” rating is more conservative. Even
so, it remains satisfactory in terms of turnover and profitability, without excessively
increasing its debt level.
The average SME with a “c” rating seems to run under limited efficient conditions.
Although it achieves the highest sales among all ERS ratings, it fails to maintain the
same momentum in terms of profitability, which declines sharply. At the same
time, it records very high debt and financial expense levels.
Finally, the average SME with a “d” rating shows an unfavourable financial picture.
It records the lowest sales among all ERS ratings and at the same time, its efficiency
is problematic as it has losses even at the level of EBITDA, which are further
expanded at the level of net results. This SME is overleveraged, with the highest
debt and financial expenses, which is an unfavourable situation. The situation
becomes even worse when combined with loss accumulation. Finally, the liquidity
problems are intense, since this SME has very low cash as reflected by the lowest
difference between liabilities and net debt among all ERS ratings.
Aggregate financials per ERS rating, 2015
17Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Figures of average SME in thousand euros,
2015
18Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Based on the average performance of the enterprises per ratio and final ERS rating, following conclusions can
be reached:
Outperformer “a”
• The average SME with an “a” rating is very profitable, with the EBITDA margin amounting to 24% and the return on equity to
19.3% on average.
• The level of liquidity is high as well, with current assets covering the current liabilities by approximately 3.9 times.
• The levels of leverage are low, since its debt only amounts to half of its equity.
• At the same time, the level of debt servicing is high, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 21.4 times.
Good performer “b”
• The level of operating profitability is more conservative, but satisfactory, with EBITDA margin at 15.4%.
• The equity is profitably efficient, with the return on equity at 13%.
• The level of liquidity for the average SME with a “b” rating is lower, but still satisfactory, since current assets exceed current
liabilities by 2.5 times.
• The debt levels are higher compared to the average SME with an “a” rating, as liabilities exceed equity by 1.2 times.
• The debt service ability is adequate, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 11.9 times.
Average SME performance per ratio based on the final ERS rating,
2015 (i)
Average SME performance per ratio based on the final ERS rating,
2015 (ii)
19Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Medium performer “c”
• The levels of efficiency and profitability for the average SME with a “c” rating are lower, since the EBITDA margin is limited to 7.3%
and the return on equity to 4.1%.
• The liquidity is limited, but remains moderately satisfactory, with current assets covering current liabilities by 1.5 times.
• Net debt level is high and exceeds EBITDA by 13.6 times.
• At the same time, the debt servicing level is low, since the EBITDA covers the financial expenses by 3 times.
Underperformer “d”
• The average SME with a “d” rating is loss making, with EBITDA margin at -9.1%.
• At the same time, inefficient equity management leads to poor performance in the form of a negative return on equity at -16.1%.
• The average SME rated with “d” has apparent liquidity problems, since the current liabilities exceed the current assets with an
average current ratio at 0.7 units.
• Finally, the average SME with a “d” rating is overleveraged because its debt is by 3.5 times higher than its equity and its net debt is
by 25 times higher than its EBITDA.
Current ratio Quick ratio
EBITDA
margin
Return on
equity*
Debt to
equity*
Interest coverage
ratio
Net debt to
EBITDA**
a outperformers 3.9 2.9 24.0% 19.3% 0.5 21.4 0.2
b good performers 2.5 1.6 15.4% 13.0% 1.2 11.9 3.9
c medium performers 1.5 0.9 7.3% 4.1% 2.7 3.0 13.6
d underperformers 0.7 0.4 -9.1% -16.1% 3.5 -4.6 25.0
Rating Performance
Liquidity Profitability Solvency
* excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity ** excluding 1,402 enterprises with negative EBITDA
20Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7
Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4
The financial performance of SMEs in 2015 revealed a negative correlation between short term liability coverage
and leverage level. SMEs with a high rating can satisfactorily cover their current liabilities – as reflected in the
current ratio – and at the same time their average leverage (debt to equity) is low. In particular, the “a” rating has
a current ratio of 3.9 and a debt to equity ratio amounting to 0.5. On the other hand, the average picture of SMEs
with a final “d” rating is that the value of their current assets is insufficient to cover their current liabilities (with
current ratio at 0.7). At the same time, said SMEs are overleveraged, since their liabilities exceed their equity by
3.5 times.
Average current ratio and debt to equity per final rating,
2015
Relation between short term liability coverage and leverage based on the
final ERS rating, 2015
* excluding 735 SMEs with negative equity
21Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7
Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4
Upon examining the financial situation of SMEs according to their EBITDA, a negative correlation with the level of
total liabilities and a positive relation to the ability of debt service was revealed. In particular, the average SME
with an “a” rating has a very high profit margin (24%), a low net debt compared to its profits (0.2) and a very
satisfactory debt servicing, as it is reflected in the interest coverage ratio (21.4). On the contrary, the average SME
with a “d” rating is loss making with its EBITDA margin at -9.1% and overleveraged, as its net debt exceeds EBITDA
by 25 times. As a consequence, the loss-making SME has difficulties in debt servicing, with an average interest
coverage ratio at -4.6 points.
Relation between liabilities and EBITDA based on the final ERS rating, 2015
Average EBITDA margin, net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage ratio per
final rating, 2015
Interest coverage ratio
(bubble size)
22Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
2. Presentation of the ERS results for SMEs for 2015
2b. … based on the ERS rating per constituent dimension
Categorisation of SMEs based on their liquidity rating, 2015
23Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Liquidity
a
1,477
b
1,827
c
2,248
d
2,344
Current ratio: 4.5
Quick ratio: 3.3
Current ratio: 2.2
Quick ratio: 1.3
Current ratio: 0.7
Quick ratio: 0.4
Current ratio: 1.4
Quick ratio: 0.8
The higher the rating, the better
SMEs can cover their current
liabilities.
SMEs with a “d” rating are unable to
meet their current liabilities.
Decreasing SME rating implies
lower liquidity ratios.
Most SMEs were rated with “c”
and had a moderately satisfactory
performance
24Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Profitability
a
508
b
2,628
c
2,526
d
2,234
EBITDA margin: 39%
Return on equity: 26.6%
Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7
Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4
EBITDA margin: 17.4%
Return on equity: 17%
EBITDA margin: 9.3%
Return on equity: 4.2%
EBITDA margin: -7.6%
Return on equity*: -10.2%
* excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity
The very profitable SMEs rated
with “a” account for only 6.4%.
Most SMEs are rated with either “b”
or “c” and have a satisfactory
average performance.
More than ¼ of the SMEs of the sample rated
with “d” are on average loss-making and
inefficient. Among them there are SMEs with
so high accumulative losses that they record
negative equity.
Categorisation of SMEs based on their profitability rating, 2015
Categorisation of SMEs based on their solvency rating, 2015
25Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Solvency
a
1,335
b
2,041
c
2,785
d
1,735
SMEs with an “a” rating are solvent
with low leverage, debt exposure
and high ability to serve their
financial obligations.
SMEs with a “b” rating maintain
relatively satisfactory debt service
levels, but their leverage increases
compared to those rated with “a”.
More than 1/3 of the SMEs of the sample
were rated with “c”, with even more
increasing levels of debt and leverage. At the
same time, these SMEs retain on average a
moderate level of debt servicing.
SMEs with a “d” rating are
overleveraged with very high debts
and signs of weak debt servicing.
Debt to equity: 0.4
Interest coverage ratio: 20.9
Net debt to EBITDA: 0.2
Debt to equity: 1.1
Interest coverage ratio: 10.6
Net debt to EBITDA: 4.4
Debt to equity: 2.4
Interest coverage ratio: 2.9
Net debt to EBITDA: 12.5
Debt to equity*: 4.3
Interest coverage ratio: -3.4
Net debt to EBITDA**: 21.5
* excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity
** excluding 1,402 enterprises with negative EBITDA
26Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
3. Appendices
27Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
3a. Selection of SME sample
The source of the financial data is ICAP DATA and the data-extract period is July 2017. The initial number of enterprises with
available published assets in 2015 was 27,231. In the next step, the turnover was chosen as the most suitable criterion for the
separation of SMEs from large enterprises. Therefore, the SMEs* selected were enterprises with a turnover up to (and including)
€50 mn. At this step a sample of 13,941 SMEs with calculable ratios was selected. Finally, from the adoption of the acceptable
ratio boundaries, the final sample of the examined SMEs was reduced to 7,896 enterprises, which corresponds to 97.3% of the
final potential sample to be examined (including large enterprises).
Selection of SME sample
28Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
* Adopting the boundaries of the turnover of the definition of SMEs given by the European Commission (Commission Recommendation 2003/361/EC).
Formation of the final SME sample, 2015
29Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
3b. Methodology of Enterprise Rating System
For the purpose of this analysis, all enterprises were examined, without any size criteria. Furthermore, all sectors of
economic activity were examined according to the NACE rev. 2 classification, with the following exceptions:
– Κ: Financial and insurance activities
– O: Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
– Τ: Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods – and services – producing activities of households for own use
– U: Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies
Methodology
30Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Source / date of financial data extract:
ICAP DATA
Oct. 2016
Selected enterprises with available data for the period
2013-2015 for:
the assets
74,458 enterprises
the accounts used for the
calculation of the ratios
52,828 enterprises
Final sample formation:
Enterprises with ratios
outside acceptable
boundaries were
excluded
Criterion of acceptable
ratio boundaries:
± 10x their distribution
median
28,717
enterprises
Definition of acceptable ratio boundaries
31Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Criterion of acceptable
ratio boundaries
± 10 times the
distribution median of
all enterprises*
* For the enterprises with negative equity the ratios “debt to equity” and return on equity” are not
considered. The same applies for the ratio “net debt to EBITDA” for enterprises with negative EBITDA.
Implemented lower and upper ratio boundaries
Current ratio
(0, 15]
EBITDA margin
[-100%, 100%]
Quick ratio
(0, 10]
Return on equity
[-50%, 50%]
Debt to equity
(0, 15]
Interest coverage
ratio
[-50, 50]
Net debt to
EBITDA
[-45, 45]
For the period 2013-2015, the distribution of the enterprises per examined ratio based on the implemented boundaries is as follows:
Enterprise distribution per ratio (i)
32Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Liquidity
Profitability
Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Series: Current ratio
Sample 28717
Observations 28717
Mean 1.932033
Median 1.413653
Maximum 14.99756
Minimum 0.002237
Std. Dev. 1.769645
Skewness 2.728749
Kurtosis 12.88059
Jarque-Bera 152451.8
Probability 0.000000 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Series: Quick ratio
Sample 28717
Observations 28717
Mean 1.341537
Median 0.968957
Maximum 9.971817
Minimum 6.97e-05
Std. Dev. 1.368725
Skewness 2.666894
Kurtosis 12.23342
Jarque-Bera 136053.3
Probability 0.000000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Series: EBITDA margin
Sample 28717
Observations 28717
Mean 0.127122
Median 0.086198
Maximum 1.000000
Minimum -0.992609
Std. Dev. 0.228255
Skewness 0.473555
Kurtosis 6.720730
Jarque-Bera 17638.05
Probability 0.000000 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
-0.500 -0.375 -0.250 -0.125 0.000 0.125 0.250 0.375 0.500
Series: Return on equity
Sample 28717
Observations 25872
Mean 0.054148
Median 0.035858
Maximum 0.499945
Minimum -0.499515
Std. Dev. 0.162482
Skewness -0.043749
Kurtosis 4.081955
Jarque-Bera 1270.188
Probability 0.000000
Enterprise distribution per ratio (ii)
33Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Solvency
Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Series: Debt to equity
Sample 28717
Observations 25872
Mean 1.964985
Median 1.171551
Maximum 14.98910
Minimum 0.003578
Std. Dev. 2.292560
Skewness 2.452902
Kurtosis 10.12408
Jarque-Bera 80655.37
Probability 0.000000 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Series: Interest coverage ratio
Sample 28717
Observations 28717
Mean 6.210742
Median 3.290262
Maximum 49.99228
Minimum -49.96896
Std. Dev. 12.63672
Skewness 0.447108
Kurtosis 6.544160
Jarque-Bera 15986.62
Probability 0.000000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Series: Net debt to EBITDA
Sample 28717
Observations 23799
Mean 8.190871
Median 5.789356
Maximum 44.95071
Minimum -44.29842
Std. Dev. 9.255533
Skewness 1.188930
Kurtosis 6.089775
Jarque-Bera 15073.63
Probability 0.000000
For the period 2013-2015, the distribution of the enterprises per examined ratio based on the implemented boundaries is as follows:
The aforementioned enterprises were divided into four groups (quartiles) based on the final enterprise distributions per ratio and a
rating system for enterprises was created based on their financial performance. The results of the Enterprise Rating System (ERS) are
presented below:
Presentation of ERS (Enterprise Rating System)
34Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Enterprise Rating System (ERS)
* The enterprises with negative equity are rated with “d” for the ratios “return on equity” and “debt to equity” and the enterprises with
negative EBITDA are rated with “d” for the ratio “net debt to EBITDA”.
Average ratings of the ratios:
- Current ratio
- Quick ratio
Liquidity
Rating
Average ratings of the ratios:
- EBITDA margin
- Return on equity
Profitability
Rating
Average ratings of the ratios:
- Debt to equity
- Interest coverage ratio
- Net debt to EBITDA
Solvency
Rating
Final ERS
rating
Rating Performance Percentile Current ratio Quick ratio EBITDA margin
Return on
equity*
Debt to
equity*
Interest coverage
ratio
Net debt to
EBITDA*
a outperformers ≥ 75 ≥ 2.25 ≥ 1.61 ≥ 19.60% ≥ 13.60% ≤ 0.53 ≥ 9.31 ≤ 2.39
b good performers 50 [1.41-2.25) [0.97-1.61) [8.63%-19.60%) [3.60%-13.60%) (0.53-1.17] [3.30-9.31) (2.39-5.80]
c medium performers 25 [0.96-1.41) [0.53-0.97) [2.80%-8.63%) [-1.97%-3.60%) (1.17-2.44] [1.19-3.30) (5.80-11.51]
d underperformers <25 < 0.96 < 0.53 < 2.80% <-1.97% > 2.44 <1.19 > 11.51
Based on the four ERS grade rating scales, for the period 2013-2015 enterprises can be classified as follows:
Presentation of ERS (Enterprise Rating System)
35Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
Enterprise distribution and cumulative percentages, 2013-2015 based on the
Enterprise Rating System (ERS)
36Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
3c. Examined ratio formulas
Examined ratio formulas
37Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Liquidity
Current ratio
Current assets
Current liabilities
Quick ratio
Cash+deposits+securities+accounts receivable
Current liabilities
Solvency
Debt to equity
Total liabilities
Equity
Interest coverage
ratio
EBITDA
Financial expenses
Net debt to EBITDA
Liabilities - cash
EBITDA
Profitability
EBITDA margin
EBITDA
Turnover
Return on equity
Net profit before taxes
Equity
38Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
Disclaimer: This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter "the Bank"), which is supervised by the European Central
Bank (ECB), in collaboration with the Bank of Greece and is sent or provided to third parties, without any obligation of its author. This document or any part of it should not be duplicated in any
way without the prior written consent of its author.
The information or opinions included in this document are addressed to existing or potential clients in a general manner, without taking into account the particular circumstances, the
investment objectives, the financial ability, the experience and/or knowledge of the potential recipients of this document and, as a result, they do not constitute or should not be considered
neither as a solicitation or offer for the conduct of transactions in financial instruments or currencies nor as a recommendation or advice for decision making in relation to those. Taking into
account the aforementioned, the recipient of the information contained in this document should proceed with his/her own research, analysis, and confirmation of the information which is
included in this document and seek for independent and professional legal, tax and investment advice, before proceeding with any investment decision making.
The information depicted in this document is relied on sources that the Bank considers to be reliable and is provided on an "as is" basis, however, the Bank cannot warrant as to their accuracy
and completeness. The opinions and estimates herein are related to the trend of the local and international financial markets at the indicated date (prices at closing time) and are subject to
changes without any prior notice. Notwithstanding the above, the Bank might include in this document investment researches, which have been conducted by third persons. In this case, the
Bank does not modify those researches, but it presents them on an "as is" basis, therefore, no responsibility is assumed in relation to the content of the aforementioned investment researches.
The Bank is under no duty to update the information contained in this document. Considering the above, the Bank, the members of its Board of Directors and the relevant persons assume no
responsibility for the information included in the present document and/or for the outcome of any investment decisions made according to such information.
Piraeus Bank Group is an organisation with a significant presence in the Greek market and an increasing one in the international markets providing a wide range of investment services. In the
context of investment services offered by the Bank and/or any other Piraeus Group companies in general, there might be cases whereby conflict of interests may arise in relation to the
information provided herein. Reference should be made to the fact that the Bank, the relevant persons and/or other Piraeus Group companies indicatively:
a. Are not subject to any prohibition in relation to trading on own account or in the course of providing portfolio management services prior to the publication of this
document or the acquisition of any shares prior to any public offering or the acquisition of any other securities.
b. May offer upon remuneration investment banking services to issuers for whom this document may contain information.
c. May participate to the issuers' share capital or acquire other securities issued by the aforementioned issuers or attract other financial interests from them.
d. Might provide market making or underwriting services to issuers that might be mentioned in this document.
e. Might have published papers the content of which is different or incompatible to the information presented herein.
The Bank as well as the other Piraeus Group's companies have enacted, implement and maintain an effective policy, which prevents circumstances that may give rise to conflicts of interests
and the dissemination of any information among the departments ("chinese walls") and they also constantly comply with the provisions and regulations relevant to inside information and
market abuse. Also, the Bank confirms that it doesn't have any kind of interest or conflict of interest with a) any other legal entity or person that could have participated in the preparation of
the present document and b) with any other legal entity or person that couldn't have participated in the preparation of the present document, but had access to it before its publication.
It is duly stated that: the investments described in the present document include investment risks, among which the risk of losing the entire capital invested. In particular, it is stated that;
a. The figures presented herein refer to the past and that the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
b. In case the figures refer to simulated past performance, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
c. The return on investments might be positively or negatively affected as a result of currency fluctuations, in case the figures are denominated in a foreign currency (other
than Euro).
d. Any forecasts in relation to future performance, may not be a reliable indicator of future performance.
e. The tax treatment of the information as well as transactions pertained in this document, depends on each investor's individual circumstances and may be subject to
change in the future. As a result, the recipient should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable tax legislation.
The distribution of the present document outside Greece and/or to persons governed by foreign law may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions according to the applicable legislation.
Therefore, the recipient of the present should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable legislation, in order to look into such restrictions and/or prohibitions.

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Enterprise Rating System: Update of the rating system for small and medium Greek enterprises

  • 1. October 2017 Ilias Lekkos Paraskevi Vlachou ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND INVESTMENT STRATEGY Enterprise Rating System: Update of the rating system for small and medium-sized Greek enterprises
  • 2. Contents of Study 2Enterprise Rating System: October 2017 1. Purpose of the Study – Key Findings 2. Presentation of the ERS Results for SMEs for 2015 2a. … based on the Final ERS Rating 2b. … based on the ERS Rating per constituent Dimension 3. Appendices
  • 3. 3Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 1. Purpose of the Study – Key Findings
  • 4. After 8 years of recession and stagnation, which were marked by the dramatic deleveraging of the Greek economy, Greek banks - having already been capitalised three times– are again in a position to restart the substantial financing of the Greek economy. Yet, the legacy of the economic crisis on the Greek banking system indicates that this new effort of financing Greek enterprises will be a very selective and gradual process. In that respect, a question posed repeatedly not only in Greece but also by foreign analysts and investors is whether there are creditworthy and dynamic Greek enterprises that worth being financed which at the same time meet the strict lending criteria adopted by all banks in the Eurozone. General Framework of the Study 4Enterprise Rating System: September 2017
  • 5. The key to this question lies in Small and Medium-sized entrepreneurship, as this is believed to be the most dynamic part of the Greek entrepreneurship, with a high degree of dependence on domestic sources of financing. The importance of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) is illustrated by the fact that they account for 97.3% of the total number of enterprises systematically analysed by Piraeus Bank. In addition, SMEs contribute 41% to total turnover, while their contribution increases to 47.6% in terms of net earnings before taxes. In regard to liabilities and debt, SME net debt accounted for 43.5% and their financial expenses for 45.8% of the total figures. The contribution of SMEs to the Greek entrepreneurship 5Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
  • 6. Key contributions of the study 6Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Focusing our attention on SMEs, we have developed a fully quantitative rating system of the total Greek Small and Medium-sized entrepreneurship which serves four main purposes: 1. First, it allows Piraeus Bank to identify those enterprises that meet the criteria of sound financing. 2. It enhances our risk management capabilities by classifying all enterprises into four ratings according to fully transparent and quantitative criteria. 3. It allows us to identify enterprises that although they are facing financial problems, i.e. negative results, have a sustainable business model, i.e. positive EBITDA. We call these enterprises “turnaround cases”, i.e. enterprises that are suitable candidates for restructuring their debt obligations with the intention of turning them into performing cases. 4. Finally, the above model allows identifying enterprises with substantial problems, e.g. when the operating profitability cannot even cover a minimum of their debt obligations. In these “lost cases” banks should focus on more drastic treatments than extensions and restructurings.
  • 7. 7Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7 Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4 Out of a sample of 7,896 Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, 8.6% records an outstanding performance in liquidity, profitability and solvency, thus achieving the highest rating. Another 35.7% of SMEs belongs to the next rating with positive but less satisfactory performance. 40.4% is classified in the third rating, which means that its performance falls behind significantly, while 15.4% of the sample is in the last rating, which means that they are seriously problematic enterprises. Outperformers (8.6%) a 676 b 2,817 c 3,189 d 1,214 good performers (35.7%) medium performers (40.4%) Underperformers (15.4%) Key findings (i) SMEs per final ERS rating, 2015
  • 8. 8Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Outperformer “a” • High levels of efficiency with the EBITDA margin amounting to 24% and the return on equity to 19.3% on average • None of the outperformers has interest coverage ratio less than 1 • Only 0.9% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses before taxes • High liquidity, with current assets covering their current liabilities by approximately 3.9 times • Low levels of leverage, since their debt amounts to only half of their equity • High level of debt servicing, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 21.4 times Good performer “b” • More conservative, but satisfactory level of operating profitability, with EBITDA margin at 15.4% • Profitable efficiency of equity, with the return on equity at 13% • Only 0.7% of good performers have an interest coverage ratio less than 1 • 7% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses before taxes • Lower, but satisfactory level of liquidity, since the current assets amount to 2.5 times the current liabilities • Higher debt levels, as liabilities exceed equity by 1.2 times • Adequate debt service ability, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 11.9 times Medium performer “c” • Low levels of efficiency and profitability, since the EBITDA margin is limited to 7.3% and the return on equity to 4.1% • 22.1% of medium performers have interest coverage ratio less than 1 • 17.7% of them have positive EBITDA and net losses before taxes • Satisfactory, but limited liquidity, with current assets covering current liabilities by 1.5 times • High net debt level, which exceeds EBITDA by 13.6 times • Low level of debt servicing, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 3 times Underperformer “d” • Loss making, with EBITDA margin at -9.1%. • Inefficient management of equity, with a negative return on equity at -16.1% • Almost all underperformers (82.5%) have an interest coverage ratio that is less than 1 • 18.3% of underperformers have positive EBITDA and net losses before taxes • Liquidity difficulties, since the current liabilities exceed the current assets (current ratio: 0.7 units) • Overleveraged, with 3.5 times higher debt than equity and net debt 25 times higher than EBITDA Profile of the average SME per final ERS rating, 2015 Key findings (ii)
  • 9. 9Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Outperformers “a” • As expected none but a tiny 0.9% of the total faces financial difficulties and even these enterprises are suitable candidates for debt restructuring, as they have net losses BUT positive EBITDA. • As expected, no enterprise has debt servicing problems, since none has interest coverage ratio less than 1. Good performers “b” • The percentage of possible restructuring increases to 7%. • The percentage of problematic enterprises that have an interest coverage ratio less than 1 amounts to 0.7%. Medium performers “c” • The percentage of possible restructuring increases dramatically to 17.7%. • The percentage of companies with signs of debt servicing difficulties increases to 22.1%. Underperformers “d” • Despite 18.3% with positive EBITDA, the final result is loss making. • The vast majority (82.5%) has a substantial survival problem. Key findings (iii)
  • 10. 10Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research An examination of the SMEs based on the rating per constituent dimension leads to following conclusions: • Based on the liquidity rating, the lower the rating the lower the ability to cover the short-term liabilities of SMEs. Especially, the SMEs with a “d” rating encounter serious liquidity problems. • Accordingly, based on the profitability rating, the outperforming SMEs (“a”) which are very profitable account only for 6.4% of the sample. Most SMEs are classified in the intermediate ratings (“b” and “c”). On the other hand, underperforming SMEs (“d”) are on average loss making and account for more than ¼ of the sample (28.3%). • Finally, according to the solvency rating, the highest percentage of SMEs (35.3%) are medium performers (“c”), which compared to the enterprises with “a” and “b” ratings, are more leveraged and have a low debt servicing level. Enterprises with a “d” rating are overleveraged and have serious debt servicing problems. Key findings (iv)
  • 11. 11Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 2. Presentation of the ERS results for SMEs for 2015 2a. … based on the final ERS rating
  • 12. Based on our sample, in 2015 there were 7,896 SMEs with a turnover up to €50 mn falling within the ERS rating system criteria, which account for 97.3% of the total final sample. Aggregately, these enterprises have a turnover of €33.1 bn, EBITDA of €2.9 bn, net profit before taxes of €690.5 mn as well as total liabilities of €31.5 bn, net debt of €27.8 bn and financial expenses of €1.1 bn. From the implementation of ERS, the structure of the Greek small and medium-sized entrepreneurship resembles the shape of a rhomboid. Most SMEs are good (“b”) and medium (“c”) performers with percentages of 35.7% and 40.4% of our sample respectively. Finally, the outperforming SMEs with an “a” rating amount only to 8.6% of the sample, while the underperformers with a “d” rating account for 15.4% of the examined enterprises. 12Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Outperformers (8.6%) a 676 b 2,817 c 3,189 d 1,214 good performers (35.7%) medium performers (40.4%) Underperformers (15.4%) The rhomboid structure of the Greek small and medium-sized entrepreneurship based on the ERS, 2015 SMEs per final ERS rating, 2015
  • 13. 13Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Outperforming SMEs rated with “a” achieved in all three examined dimensions either an “a” or a “b” rating. Especially in terms of solvency, the enterprises had a low leverage degree and a high debt servicing, as 91.6% of the SMEs were rated with “a”. Similarly, in terms of liquidity, the SMEs with an “a” rating can satisfactorily meet their short-term liabilities. During the economic crisis period, even the profitability of the outperformers suffers, since the majority of SMEs (67.3%) achieved a “b” rating in their profitability in 2015. ERS 2015: Structure of final “a” rating per constituent dimension
  • 14. 14Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research SMEs rated with a “b” rating recorded a lower performance compared to those rated with “a”, which becomes even more apparent when considering the different structure of the ratings in the individual dimensions, since now there are enterprises with “c” and “d” ratings. Solvency is the dimension with the best performance, since 57.4% of the enterprises were ranked with “b” and another ¼ with “a”, thus reflecting satisfactory levels of debt servicing. Respectively, the enterprises with a “b” rating manage to cover their short-term liabilities more conservatively, but still satisfactorily. Finally, more than half of the enterprises are rated with “b” in terms of profitability. However, 1/3 (34%) of the enterprises is rated with “c”, indicating more moderate levels of profitability. ERS 2015: Structure of final “b” rating per constituent dimension
  • 15. 15Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Most SMEs achieved a “c” rating. The big picture from the distribution of the enterprises in the examined dimensions is that the SMEs with a “c” rating face difficulties in their operation. In particular, the dimension of solvency has the highest percentage of enterprises with a “c” rating (67.2%), reflecting increased levels of leverage. At the same time, according to the SME classification in the dimensions of profitability and liquidity, the enterprises are challenged by narrow liquidity and low profitability. ERS 2015: Structure of final “c” rating per constituent dimension
  • 16. 16Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research From the structure of SMEs with a “d” rating, it was observed that the enterprises achieved either a “c” or a “d” rating at the individual dimensions, which reflects serious financial problems. These enterprises have on average accumulated losses and in particular 91.5% of them were rated with “d” in profitability. Respectively, 86.2% of them were rated with “d” in solvency, reflecting debt servicing difficulties and signs of overleverage. Finally, even in terms of the ability to cover current liabilities, the liquidity problems are intense, since 81.9% of the enterprises achieved a “d” rating in the dimension of liquidity. ERS 2015: Structure of final “d” rating per constituent dimension
  • 17. The average SME with an “a” rating appears the most efficient one compared to SMEs classified in the other ERS ratings, since it achieves the highest profits, without making the highest turnover. The low debt and financial expense levels are conditions that positively affect its performance. The performance of the average SME with a “b” rating is more conservative. Even so, it remains satisfactory in terms of turnover and profitability, without excessively increasing its debt level. The average SME with a “c” rating seems to run under limited efficient conditions. Although it achieves the highest sales among all ERS ratings, it fails to maintain the same momentum in terms of profitability, which declines sharply. At the same time, it records very high debt and financial expense levels. Finally, the average SME with a “d” rating shows an unfavourable financial picture. It records the lowest sales among all ERS ratings and at the same time, its efficiency is problematic as it has losses even at the level of EBITDA, which are further expanded at the level of net results. This SME is overleveraged, with the highest debt and financial expenses, which is an unfavourable situation. The situation becomes even worse when combined with loss accumulation. Finally, the liquidity problems are intense, since this SME has very low cash as reflected by the lowest difference between liabilities and net debt among all ERS ratings. Aggregate financials per ERS rating, 2015 17Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Figures of average SME in thousand euros, 2015
  • 18. 18Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Based on the average performance of the enterprises per ratio and final ERS rating, following conclusions can be reached: Outperformer “a” • The average SME with an “a” rating is very profitable, with the EBITDA margin amounting to 24% and the return on equity to 19.3% on average. • The level of liquidity is high as well, with current assets covering the current liabilities by approximately 3.9 times. • The levels of leverage are low, since its debt only amounts to half of its equity. • At the same time, the level of debt servicing is high, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 21.4 times. Good performer “b” • The level of operating profitability is more conservative, but satisfactory, with EBITDA margin at 15.4%. • The equity is profitably efficient, with the return on equity at 13%. • The level of liquidity for the average SME with a “b” rating is lower, but still satisfactory, since current assets exceed current liabilities by 2.5 times. • The debt levels are higher compared to the average SME with an “a” rating, as liabilities exceed equity by 1.2 times. • The debt service ability is adequate, since EBITDA covers financial expenses by 11.9 times. Average SME performance per ratio based on the final ERS rating, 2015 (i)
  • 19. Average SME performance per ratio based on the final ERS rating, 2015 (ii) 19Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Medium performer “c” • The levels of efficiency and profitability for the average SME with a “c” rating are lower, since the EBITDA margin is limited to 7.3% and the return on equity to 4.1%. • The liquidity is limited, but remains moderately satisfactory, with current assets covering current liabilities by 1.5 times. • Net debt level is high and exceeds EBITDA by 13.6 times. • At the same time, the debt servicing level is low, since the EBITDA covers the financial expenses by 3 times. Underperformer “d” • The average SME with a “d” rating is loss making, with EBITDA margin at -9.1%. • At the same time, inefficient equity management leads to poor performance in the form of a negative return on equity at -16.1%. • The average SME rated with “d” has apparent liquidity problems, since the current liabilities exceed the current assets with an average current ratio at 0.7 units. • Finally, the average SME with a “d” rating is overleveraged because its debt is by 3.5 times higher than its equity and its net debt is by 25 times higher than its EBITDA. Current ratio Quick ratio EBITDA margin Return on equity* Debt to equity* Interest coverage ratio Net debt to EBITDA** a outperformers 3.9 2.9 24.0% 19.3% 0.5 21.4 0.2 b good performers 2.5 1.6 15.4% 13.0% 1.2 11.9 3.9 c medium performers 1.5 0.9 7.3% 4.1% 2.7 3.0 13.6 d underperformers 0.7 0.4 -9.1% -16.1% 3.5 -4.6 25.0 Rating Performance Liquidity Profitability Solvency * excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity ** excluding 1,402 enterprises with negative EBITDA
  • 20. 20Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7 Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4 The financial performance of SMEs in 2015 revealed a negative correlation between short term liability coverage and leverage level. SMEs with a high rating can satisfactorily cover their current liabilities – as reflected in the current ratio – and at the same time their average leverage (debt to equity) is low. In particular, the “a” rating has a current ratio of 3.9 and a debt to equity ratio amounting to 0.5. On the other hand, the average picture of SMEs with a final “d” rating is that the value of their current assets is insufficient to cover their current liabilities (with current ratio at 0.7). At the same time, said SMEs are overleveraged, since their liabilities exceed their equity by 3.5 times. Average current ratio and debt to equity per final rating, 2015 Relation between short term liability coverage and leverage based on the final ERS rating, 2015 * excluding 735 SMEs with negative equity
  • 21. 21Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7 Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4 Upon examining the financial situation of SMEs according to their EBITDA, a negative correlation with the level of total liabilities and a positive relation to the ability of debt service was revealed. In particular, the average SME with an “a” rating has a very high profit margin (24%), a low net debt compared to its profits (0.2) and a very satisfactory debt servicing, as it is reflected in the interest coverage ratio (21.4). On the contrary, the average SME with a “d” rating is loss making with its EBITDA margin at -9.1% and overleveraged, as its net debt exceeds EBITDA by 25 times. As a consequence, the loss-making SME has difficulties in debt servicing, with an average interest coverage ratio at -4.6 points. Relation between liabilities and EBITDA based on the final ERS rating, 2015 Average EBITDA margin, net debt to EBITDA and interest coverage ratio per final rating, 2015 Interest coverage ratio (bubble size)
  • 22. 22Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 2. Presentation of the ERS results for SMEs for 2015 2b. … based on the ERS rating per constituent dimension
  • 23. Categorisation of SMEs based on their liquidity rating, 2015 23Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Liquidity a 1,477 b 1,827 c 2,248 d 2,344 Current ratio: 4.5 Quick ratio: 3.3 Current ratio: 2.2 Quick ratio: 1.3 Current ratio: 0.7 Quick ratio: 0.4 Current ratio: 1.4 Quick ratio: 0.8 The higher the rating, the better SMEs can cover their current liabilities. SMEs with a “d” rating are unable to meet their current liabilities. Decreasing SME rating implies lower liquidity ratios. Most SMEs were rated with “c” and had a moderately satisfactory performance
  • 24. 24Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Profitability a 508 b 2,628 c 2,526 d 2,234 EBITDA margin: 39% Return on equity: 26.6% Γενική ρευστότητα: 0,7 Άμεση ρευστότητα: 0,4 EBITDA margin: 17.4% Return on equity: 17% EBITDA margin: 9.3% Return on equity: 4.2% EBITDA margin: -7.6% Return on equity*: -10.2% * excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity The very profitable SMEs rated with “a” account for only 6.4%. Most SMEs are rated with either “b” or “c” and have a satisfactory average performance. More than ¼ of the SMEs of the sample rated with “d” are on average loss-making and inefficient. Among them there are SMEs with so high accumulative losses that they record negative equity. Categorisation of SMEs based on their profitability rating, 2015
  • 25. Categorisation of SMEs based on their solvency rating, 2015 25Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Solvency a 1,335 b 2,041 c 2,785 d 1,735 SMEs with an “a” rating are solvent with low leverage, debt exposure and high ability to serve their financial obligations. SMEs with a “b” rating maintain relatively satisfactory debt service levels, but their leverage increases compared to those rated with “a”. More than 1/3 of the SMEs of the sample were rated with “c”, with even more increasing levels of debt and leverage. At the same time, these SMEs retain on average a moderate level of debt servicing. SMEs with a “d” rating are overleveraged with very high debts and signs of weak debt servicing. Debt to equity: 0.4 Interest coverage ratio: 20.9 Net debt to EBITDA: 0.2 Debt to equity: 1.1 Interest coverage ratio: 10.6 Net debt to EBITDA: 4.4 Debt to equity: 2.4 Interest coverage ratio: 2.9 Net debt to EBITDA: 12.5 Debt to equity*: 4.3 Interest coverage ratio: -3.4 Net debt to EBITDA**: 21.5 * excluding 735 enterprises with negative equity ** excluding 1,402 enterprises with negative EBITDA
  • 26. 26Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 3. Appendices
  • 27. 27Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 3a. Selection of SME sample
  • 28. The source of the financial data is ICAP DATA and the data-extract period is July 2017. The initial number of enterprises with available published assets in 2015 was 27,231. In the next step, the turnover was chosen as the most suitable criterion for the separation of SMEs from large enterprises. Therefore, the SMEs* selected were enterprises with a turnover up to (and including) €50 mn. At this step a sample of 13,941 SMEs with calculable ratios was selected. Finally, from the adoption of the acceptable ratio boundaries, the final sample of the examined SMEs was reduced to 7,896 enterprises, which corresponds to 97.3% of the final potential sample to be examined (including large enterprises). Selection of SME sample 28Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research * Adopting the boundaries of the turnover of the definition of SMEs given by the European Commission (Commission Recommendation 2003/361/EC). Formation of the final SME sample, 2015
  • 29. 29Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 3b. Methodology of Enterprise Rating System
  • 30. For the purpose of this analysis, all enterprises were examined, without any size criteria. Furthermore, all sectors of economic activity were examined according to the NACE rev. 2 classification, with the following exceptions: – Κ: Financial and insurance activities – O: Public administration and defence; compulsory social security – Τ: Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods – and services – producing activities of households for own use – U: Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies Methodology 30Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source / date of financial data extract: ICAP DATA Oct. 2016 Selected enterprises with available data for the period 2013-2015 for: the assets 74,458 enterprises the accounts used for the calculation of the ratios 52,828 enterprises Final sample formation: Enterprises with ratios outside acceptable boundaries were excluded Criterion of acceptable ratio boundaries: ± 10x their distribution median 28,717 enterprises
  • 31. Definition of acceptable ratio boundaries 31Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Criterion of acceptable ratio boundaries ± 10 times the distribution median of all enterprises* * For the enterprises with negative equity the ratios “debt to equity” and return on equity” are not considered. The same applies for the ratio “net debt to EBITDA” for enterprises with negative EBITDA. Implemented lower and upper ratio boundaries Current ratio (0, 15] EBITDA margin [-100%, 100%] Quick ratio (0, 10] Return on equity [-50%, 50%] Debt to equity (0, 15] Interest coverage ratio [-50, 50] Net debt to EBITDA [-45, 45]
  • 32. For the period 2013-2015, the distribution of the enterprises per examined ratio based on the implemented boundaries is as follows: Enterprise distribution per ratio (i) 32Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Liquidity Profitability Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Series: Current ratio Sample 28717 Observations 28717 Mean 1.932033 Median 1.413653 Maximum 14.99756 Minimum 0.002237 Std. Dev. 1.769645 Skewness 2.728749 Kurtosis 12.88059 Jarque-Bera 152451.8 Probability 0.000000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Series: Quick ratio Sample 28717 Observations 28717 Mean 1.341537 Median 0.968957 Maximum 9.971817 Minimum 6.97e-05 Std. Dev. 1.368725 Skewness 2.666894 Kurtosis 12.23342 Jarque-Bera 136053.3 Probability 0.000000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Series: EBITDA margin Sample 28717 Observations 28717 Mean 0.127122 Median 0.086198 Maximum 1.000000 Minimum -0.992609 Std. Dev. 0.228255 Skewness 0.473555 Kurtosis 6.720730 Jarque-Bera 17638.05 Probability 0.000000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 -0.500 -0.375 -0.250 -0.125 0.000 0.125 0.250 0.375 0.500 Series: Return on equity Sample 28717 Observations 25872 Mean 0.054148 Median 0.035858 Maximum 0.499945 Minimum -0.499515 Std. Dev. 0.162482 Skewness -0.043749 Kurtosis 4.081955 Jarque-Bera 1270.188 Probability 0.000000
  • 33. Enterprise distribution per ratio (ii) 33Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Solvency Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Series: Debt to equity Sample 28717 Observations 25872 Mean 1.964985 Median 1.171551 Maximum 14.98910 Minimum 0.003578 Std. Dev. 2.292560 Skewness 2.452902 Kurtosis 10.12408 Jarque-Bera 80655.37 Probability 0.000000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Series: Interest coverage ratio Sample 28717 Observations 28717 Mean 6.210742 Median 3.290262 Maximum 49.99228 Minimum -49.96896 Std. Dev. 12.63672 Skewness 0.447108 Kurtosis 6.544160 Jarque-Bera 15986.62 Probability 0.000000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Series: Net debt to EBITDA Sample 28717 Observations 23799 Mean 8.190871 Median 5.789356 Maximum 44.95071 Minimum -44.29842 Std. Dev. 9.255533 Skewness 1.188930 Kurtosis 6.089775 Jarque-Bera 15073.63 Probability 0.000000 For the period 2013-2015, the distribution of the enterprises per examined ratio based on the implemented boundaries is as follows:
  • 34. The aforementioned enterprises were divided into four groups (quartiles) based on the final enterprise distributions per ratio and a rating system for enterprises was created based on their financial performance. The results of the Enterprise Rating System (ERS) are presented below: Presentation of ERS (Enterprise Rating System) 34Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Enterprise Rating System (ERS) * The enterprises with negative equity are rated with “d” for the ratios “return on equity” and “debt to equity” and the enterprises with negative EBITDA are rated with “d” for the ratio “net debt to EBITDA”. Average ratings of the ratios: - Current ratio - Quick ratio Liquidity Rating Average ratings of the ratios: - EBITDA margin - Return on equity Profitability Rating Average ratings of the ratios: - Debt to equity - Interest coverage ratio - Net debt to EBITDA Solvency Rating Final ERS rating Rating Performance Percentile Current ratio Quick ratio EBITDA margin Return on equity* Debt to equity* Interest coverage ratio Net debt to EBITDA* a outperformers ≥ 75 ≥ 2.25 ≥ 1.61 ≥ 19.60% ≥ 13.60% ≤ 0.53 ≥ 9.31 ≤ 2.39 b good performers 50 [1.41-2.25) [0.97-1.61) [8.63%-19.60%) [3.60%-13.60%) (0.53-1.17] [3.30-9.31) (2.39-5.80] c medium performers 25 [0.96-1.41) [0.53-0.97) [2.80%-8.63%) [-1.97%-3.60%) (1.17-2.44] [1.19-3.30) (5.80-11.51] d underperformers <25 < 0.96 < 0.53 < 2.80% <-1.97% > 2.44 <1.19 > 11.51
  • 35. Based on the four ERS grade rating scales, for the period 2013-2015 enterprises can be classified as follows: Presentation of ERS (Enterprise Rating System) 35Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research Enterprise distribution and cumulative percentages, 2013-2015 based on the Enterprise Rating System (ERS)
  • 36. 36Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 3c. Examined ratio formulas
  • 37. Examined ratio formulas 37Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Liquidity Current ratio Current assets Current liabilities Quick ratio Cash+deposits+securities+accounts receivable Current liabilities Solvency Debt to equity Total liabilities Equity Interest coverage ratio EBITDA Financial expenses Net debt to EBITDA Liabilities - cash EBITDA Profitability EBITDA margin EBITDA Turnover Return on equity Net profit before taxes Equity
  • 38. 38Enterprise Rating System: September 2017 Disclaimer: This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter "the Bank"), which is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), in collaboration with the Bank of Greece and is sent or provided to third parties, without any obligation of its author. This document or any part of it should not be duplicated in any way without the prior written consent of its author. 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