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“OVER” AND “UNDER” VALUED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS:
EVIDENCE FROM A “FAIR-VALUE” P/B ECONOMETRIC MODEL
Economic Research & Investment StrategyIlias Lekkos
Veni Arakelian
INTRODUCTION
2
• Part of our mandate in the formulation of the investment strategy of the Bank is to be able to
identify and evaluate investment opportunities (either in the Fixed Income or in Equity space)
within the financial institutions’ universe.
• In that respect, our basic analytical tool is our Financial Institutions Assessment Model, which
allows us to distill the entire universe of listed financial institutions in order to arrive at a
shortlist of our preferred investment choices and sort them from the best to worst based on
their financial strength, balance-sheet quality and finally their capital adequacy.
• The aim of the present study is to introduce the second stage of our investment strategy
process that allows us to evaluate the relative “overvalue” or “undervalue” of the shortlisted
financial institutions based on the distance between their market-based price-to-book ratios
(hereafter P/B) and our estimated “fair-value” P/B.
WHY DO BANKS MERIT A DIFFERENT APPROACH?
3
The models analysts, investment strategists or even rating agencies use to evaluate financial
institutions stand at a sharp contrast to the equivalent models used for the evaluation of non-
financial corporates. This can be attributed to a number of unique features exhibited by
financial institutions which drive a wedge between them and non-financial corporates. More
specifically:
a. Differences in accounting practices. Banks’ assets are by and large financial rather real. For
that reason banks’ assets are more likely and easier to be marked to market instead of
being carried at amortised cost.
b. Depreciation. Following from the first point, real assets require a higher rate of
depreciation. As a result, depreciation is a major driving force in non-financial corporate
book values. In contrast, depreciation plays a minor role in financials.
c. Regulation. Banks play a key role in the functioning of the economy and financial crises
have the ability to depress economic growth for a prolonged period of time. For that
reason, banks are tightly regulated entities and are required to maintain predefined levels
of capital adequacy and liquidity.
d. Provision for credit risk and the ability for “smoothing of earnings”. Provisioning policies
may differ across financial institutions giving management discretion as to the timing of
recognition and realization of losses.
WHY P/B?
4
We have chosen price-to-book, P/B, or else the ratio of the market value of equity to its book
value, as our preferred variable to model for a number of reasons:
a. P/B reflects markets’ view of the additional intangible value created by banks’ management
through the deployment of banks’ assets and liabilities.
b. P/B reflects markets’ assessment on the discrepancies between the discounted future cash
flows generated by each bank and its accounting valuation of equity.
c. P/B reflects discrepancies between the markets’ view on the value of their assets and liabilities
and their accounting treatment.
FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B
5
Assets & Asset Quality
1. Assets (in logarithm) denominated in euros.
2. Problem Loans / Gross Loans (PL2GL): The ratio is used to compare the quality of loan
portfolios among banks, as high Problem Loans / Gross Loans ratios can be interpreted as
engagement in high-risk lending policies, which can lead to financial losses and a higher
probability of bank failure.
3. Loan Loss Provisions / Gross Loans (LLP2GL): It is an indicator of how protected a bank is
against future losses. A higher ratio means the bank has an enhanced capacity to absorb
losses in an economic downturn or in the event of a recession.
FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B
6
Capital Adequacy & Liquidity
5. Tier 1 Ratio (TIER1): It is the ratio that is most strongly associated with the true amount of
capital that is being leveraged and therefore is a good way to understand a bank’s current
leverage, defining the connection between a banks adjusted total assets (average total
consolidated assets) and it’s core capital.
6. Shareholders’ Equity / Total Assets (SEq2TA): It represents the amount of assets on which
shareholders have a residual claim in the event of a company-wide liquidation.
7. Gross Loans / Total Deposits (GL2TD): The loan-to-deposit ratio is the ratio of a bank’s
total outstanding loans for a period to its total deposit balance. If the ratio is lower than
one, the bank relies on its own deposits to make loans to its customers, without any
outside financing. If on the other hand the ratio is greater than one, the bank borrows
money which it re-loans at higher rates, rather than relying entirely on its own deposits.
8. Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (LBA2TB): A broad measure of the ratio
between liquid and illiquid assets on banks’ balance-sheet.
FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B
7
Efficiency & Profitability
9. Cost to Income (C2I): It is the ratio of the Operating Expenses over the Operating Income
generated. The Operating Expenses equal to the sum of Employees Cost and the Other
Operating Expenses, whereas the Operating Income equals to Net Interest Income plus
Other Income. The Cost to Income ratio gives a clear view of how efficiently the bank is
being run. The lower the ratio, the more profitable the bank is.
10. Return On Assets (ROA): The most common way to calculate ROA is by dividing the Net
Income over the Total Assets. Higher ROA indicates more asset efficiency.
11. Net Interest Margin (NIM): It measures the difference between interest paid and interest
received, adjusted relative to the amount of interest-generating assets. It is calculated by
dividing the Net Interest Income (i.e., the interest income – funding expense) over the
Average Interest Earning Assets.
METHODOLOGY
8
Our approach is based on a bank valuation model emphasizing the value created by banks’ core
loan and deposit relationships (Calomiris and Nissim (2014)). In this setting, “fair-value” P/Bs
would be driven by the market value of intangibles and other drivers of future earnings (Gordon
(1962), Damodaran (2009)), to the extent that these are not already reflected in observed book
values.
In this context, we investigate the cross-sectional and time series relationship between banks’
P/Bs and the set of fundamental factors we have identified as key drivers of “fair-value” P/Bs.
We used a sample of 61* banks (spanning 23 countries) with the highest scores in our FI
Assessment Model.
Formally, our model is set up as follows:
𝑷𝑩𝒊,𝒕 = 𝜷 𝟎 + 𝜷 𝟏 𝒍𝒐𝒈(𝑨𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒕𝒔)𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟐 PL2GL𝒊,𝒕
+ 𝜷 𝟑LLP2GL𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟒 TIER1 𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟓SEq2TA𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟔GL2TD𝒊,𝒕
+𝜷 𝟕C2I𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟖 LBA2TB𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟗 𝑹𝑶𝑨𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟏𝟎 𝑵𝑰𝑴𝒊,𝒕 +𝜺𝒊,𝒕
where 𝑖 = 1, ⋯ , 61 and 𝑡 = 2011𝑄1 − 2017𝑄4.
*In order to have a balanced panel data model, we exclude the financial institutions whose data are not available for the entire period.
9
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
0.0000
0.5000
1.0000
1.5000
2.0000
2.5000
25th-75th 10TH AVERAGE 90TH
All the data are obtained from Moody’s Database. The figure below shows the evolution of the
percentiles of the P/B data for the period 2011Q1-2017Q4. To save space, the descriptive statistics
and the empirical distributions of the variables are reported in the Appendix.
Figure 1: Percentiles for the P/B from 2011Q1-2014Q4
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS: ESTIMATED PARAMETERS
10
Table 1: Cross-section and periods effects specification fixed
Full sample (2011Q1 - 2017Q4) 2011Q1 - 2014Q4 2015Q1 - 2017Q4
Variable Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient
C 3.133921* 4.043874* 3.048711*
LOG(ASSETS) -0.118572* -0.225224* -0.133976
PL2GL -2.999671* -2.296433* -1.334242
LLP2GL 2.150798* 0.090946 3.187381
TIER1 0.011983* 0.023173* -0.000614
SEq2TA -4.786491* -5.988295* 1.45746
GL2TD -0.153145* -0.086043 -0.261685*
LBA2TBA -0.321547* 0.284276 -0.613878*
C2I -0.065811* -0.025012 0.053531
ROA 1.872391* 3.174834* -2.383626
NIM -1.092236 2.944508 7.661704
R-squared (%) 86.0593 90.0707 93.0315
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
11
• The estimated coefficients are statistically significant (with the exception of NIM) and have in
most cases the economically expected sign.
• The model penalizes size given that the 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠) enter the model with a negative sign as
well as financial institutions with low credit quality (negative coefficient on PL2GL) and rewards
high level of provisioning (positive coefficient on LLP2GL).
• High levels of profitability (ROA) and the efficiency (low C2I) are also having a positive impact
on P/Bs.
• High levels of TIER1 also push fair values of P/Bs higher but not the Seq2TA.
• Finally, liquidity variables have a somewhat contradictory impact given that high levels of
gross loans to deposits (GL2TD) are penalized but so too high levels of liquid assets to
tangible banking assets (LBA2TBA). A possible explanation for this finding is that liquid assets
improve liquidity but harm profitability given their low yielding capacity.
• As a robustness check exercise, we split the period into two subperiods. The significance of
the variables changes keeping some commonalities to the aggregate model, mainly with
respect to the ability of the model to explain the variation of the P/B. This finding is of great
importance, considering the international panel setting.
BANKS SCORES: RANKING OF FI BASED ON P/BS DEVIATION FROM FAIR-VALUE
12
We evaluate P/B deviations from “fair-values” as of 2017Q4 and we sort the banks from under-valued to over-valued.
Actual Fitted Residual z-score
BPER Banca S.p.A. - 0.460 0.714 -0.253 -1.873
Mizuho Bank, Ltd. - 0.610 0.851 -0.241 -1.852
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (Municipal Deriv.) - 1.883 2.130 -0.247 -1.299
Credit Suisse Group AG - 0.737 1.033 -0.297 -1.297
Komercni Banka, a.s. - 1.721 1.995 -0.274 -1.223
Commonwealth Bank of Australia - 2.140 2.463 -0.323 -1.215
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation - 0.665 0.798 -0.133 -1.170
Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. - 0.327 0.583 -0.257 -1.143
Deutsche Bank AG - 0.433 0.593 -0.160 -1.118
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce - 1.883 2.061 -0.178 -1.087
Australia and New Zealand Banking Grp. Ltd. - 1.423 1.712 -0.289 -1.076
Commerzbank AG - 0.370 0.532 -0.162 -1.063
United Overseas Bank Limited - 1.223 1.402 -0.179 -1.062
UniCredit S.p.A. - 0.501 0.628 -0.128 -1.043
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc - 0.692 0.805 -0.113 -0.931
Barclays Plc - 0.619 0.731 -0.112 -0.837
SunTrust Bank - 1.395 1.468 -0.073 -0.693
Bank of Nova Scotia - 1.740 1.933 -0.193 -0.671
Bank of America Corporation - 0.996 1.065 -0.070 -0.586
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. - 0.961 1.033 -0.072 -0.465
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA - 0.885 0.950 -0.066 -0.457
Standard Chartered PLC - 1.113 1.263 -0.150 -0.425
Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. - 0.707 0.768 -0.061 -0.352
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. - 0.907 0.951 -0.045 -0.290
National Australia Bank Limited - 1.617 1.675 -0.058 -0.286
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - 2.122 2.186 -0.063 -0.252
Westpac Banking Corporation - 1.836 1.875 -0.038 -0.158
State Street Bank and Trust Company - 0.742 0.759 -0.017 -0.127
Natixis - 1.158 1.175 -0.018 -0.114
Royal Bank of Canada - 2.167 2.176 -0.009 -0.078
Bank of Ireland - 0.864 0.866 -0.001 -0.003
Actual Fitted Residual z-score
DNB Bank ASA - 0.873 0.838 0.035 0.149
CaixaBank, S.A. - 2.153 2.116 0.038 0.156
National Bank of Canada - 1.870 1.840 0.030 0.162
Wells Fargo & Company - 1.564 1.543 0.022 0.174
Sparebanken Sor - 0.820 0.774 0.046 0.187
Erste Group Bank AG - 1.040 1.010 0.031 0.201
Bank of Montreal - 1.628 1.603 0.025 0.239
Aktia Bank p.l.c. - 1.060 1.029 0.031 0.267
Jyske Bank A/S - 0.996 0.954 0.042 0.287
Svenska Handelsbanken AB - 1.735 1.701 0.034 0.310
Societe Generale - 0.739 0.697 0.042 0.406
Banco Sabadell, S.A. - 0.910 0.850 0.060 0.469
Lloyds Banking Group plc - 1.110 1.005 0.105 0.539
HSBC Holdings plc - 0.673 0.551 0.122 0.615
Citigroup Inc. - 0.792 0.744 0.049 0.783
Swedbank AB - 1.767 1.623 0.143 0.798
Bankia, S.A. - 0.891 0.554 0.336 0.820
Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) - 1.066 0.923 0.143 0.885
Bankinter, S.A. - 1.640 1.324 0.316 0.913
KBC Group N.V. - 1.608 1.326 0.283 0.913
SEB - 1.538 1.372 0.167 0.920
Sydbank A/S - 1.415 1.139 0.276 1.247
Macquarie Group Limited - 2.106 1.522 0.583 1.380
Danske Bank A/S - 1.444 1.163 0.281 1.503
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) - 1.234 1.002 0.233 1.532
The Bank of New York - 1.373 1.060 0.313 1.912
KeyCorp - 1.392 1.027 0.365 2.431
JPMorgan Chase & Co. - 1.354 1.087 0.267 2.488
Nordea Bank AB - 0.867 0.657 0.210 2.798
Table 2: Bank Scoring Based on the P/B
13
APPENDIX
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF SELECTED VARIABLES
14
Figure 2: Price-to-book (P/B) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4
0
40
80
120
160
200
2400.0
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Series:PB
Sample2011Q12017Q4
Observations 1820
Mean 1.040677
Median 0.947434
Maximum 2.999640
Minimum 0.000000
Std.Dev. 0.540893
Skewness 0.621394
Kurtosis 2.913713
Jarque-Bera 117.6911
Probability 0.000000
Figure 3: Total Assets (Assets) in euros from 2011Q1-2017Q4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
8000.00
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Series:LLP2GL
Sample2011Q12017Q4
Observations1813
Mean 0.029789
Median 0.013604
Maximum 0.263732
Minimum 0.000000
Std.Dev. 0.039011
Skewness 2.834667
Kurtosis 12.79444
Jarque-Bera 9674.806
Probability 0.000000
Figure 4: Cost to Income (C2I) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 5: Gross Loans / Total Deposits (GL2TD) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0 2 4 6 8 10
Series:C2I
Sample2011Q12017Q4
Observations 1815
Mean 0.628260
Median 0.596027
Maximum 11.36941
Minimum -0.180787
Std.Dev. 0.357661
Skewness 18.36259
Kurtosis 488.6539
Jarque-Bera 17938890
Probability 0.000000
Figure 6: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets (LBA2TB) distribution from
2011Q1-2017Q4
Figure 7: Loan Loss Provisions / Gross Loans (LLP2GL) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4
0
40
80
120
160
200
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Series: PB
Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1708
Mean 1.078419
Median 0.970976
Maximum 2.999640
Minimum 0.000000
Std. Dev. 0.524951
Skewness 0.660367
Kurtosis 2.903627
Jarque-Bera 124.7998
Probability 0.000000
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Series: LBA2TBA
Sample2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 0.308486
Median 0.270032
Maximum 0.817949
Minimum 0.003771
Std. Dev. 0.154028
Skewness 0.968203
Kurtosis 4.055107
Jarque-Bera 345.0649
Probability 0.000000
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
Series: GL2TD
Sample2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 1.072062
Median 1.005053
Maximum 2.669171
Minimum 0.062882
Std. Dev. 0.405120
Skewness 0.525488
Kurtosis 3.968490
Jarque-Bera 144.9340
Probability 0.000000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0 1 2 3 4 5
Series: C2I
Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 0.627020
Median 0.601326
Maximum 5.311377
Minimum -0.016802
Std. Dev. 0.258356
Skewness 9.724806
Kurtosis 156.6338
Jarque-Bera 1701696.
Probability 0.000000
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
0 400000 800000 1200000 1600000 2000000 2400000
Series: ASSETS
Sample2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 574431.9
Median 468242.4
Maximum 2399583.
Minimum 4924.251
Std. Dev. 547186.7
Skewness 1.296756
Kurtosis 3.955795
Jarque-Bera 542.1112
Probability 0.000000
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10
Series:LLP2GL
Sample2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1701
Mean 0.022516
Median 0.012489
Maximum 0.108106
Minimum 0.000000
Std. Dev. 0.022824
Skewness 1.536235
Kurtosis 4.647017
Jarque-Bera 861.3249
Probability 0.000000
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF SELECTED VARIABLES
For illustration reasons, the next figure shows the bank problem loans to total gross loans globally.
15
Figure 10: Tier 1 Ratio (TIER1) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4
Figure 8: Net Interest Margin (NIM) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 9: Shareholders’ Equity / Total Assets (SEq2TA) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
Series: NIM
Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 0.015447
Median 0.014970
Maximum 0.038127
Minimum -0.001749
Std. Dev. 0.006554
Skewness 0.576999
Kurtosis 3.164597
Jarque-Bera 96.41833
Probability 0.000000
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
-0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12
Series: SEq2TA
Sample2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1703
Mean 0.068197
Median 0.063864
Maximum 0.128865
Minimum -0.021452
Std. Dev. 0.021982
Skewness 0.658127
Kurtosis 3.260990
Jarque-Bera 127.7704
Probability 0.000000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Series: TIER1
Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4
Observations 1706
Mean 13.51835
Median 12.80000
Maximum 29.30000
Minimum 0.000000
Std. Dev. 3.222161
Skewness 1.098906
Kurtosis 7.102015
Jarque-Bera 1539.445
Probability 0.000000
BANK PROBLEM LOANS TO TOTAL GROSS LOANS GLOBALLY
16
Figure 11: Bank problem loans to total gross loans (%). Source: www.indexmundi.com
REFERENCES
• Calomiris, Charles W., and Doron Nissim, 2014. Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of
banking activities, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 23, 400-435.
• Damodoran, A., 2009. Valuing Financial Service Firms, mimeo.
• Gordon, M., 1962. The Investing, Financing and Valuation of the Corporation, Homewood, IL: R D
Irwin.
17
Disclaimer: This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter “the Bank”), which is supervised by the Bank of Greece and is sent or
provided to third parties, without any obligation of its author. This document or any part of it should not be duplicated in any way without the prior written consent of its author.
The information or opinions included in this document are addressed to existing or potential clients in a general manner, without taking into account the particular circumstances, the investment
objectives, the financial ability, the experience and/or knowledge of the potential recipients of this document and, as a result, they do not constitute or should not be considered neither as a
solicitation or offer for the conduct of transactions in financial instruments or currencies nor as a recommendation or advice for decision making in relation to those. Taking into account the
aforementioned, the recipient of the information contained in this document should proceed with his/her own research, analysis, and confirmation of the information which is included in this
document and seek for independent and professional legal, tax and investment advice, before proceeding with any investment decision making.
The information depicted in this document is relied on sources that the Bank considers to be reliable and is provided on an “as is” basis, however, the Bank cannot warrant as to their accuracy and
completeness. The opinions and estimates herein are related to the trend of the local and international financial markets at the indicated date (prices at closing time) and are subject to changes
without any prior notice. Notwithstanding the above, the Bank might include in this document investment researches, which have been conducted by third persons. In this case, the Bank does not
modify those researches, but it presents them on an “as is” basis, therefore, no responsibility is assumed in relation to the content of the aforementioned investment researches. The Bank is under no
duty to update the information contained in this document. Considering the above, the Bank, the members of its Board of Directors and the relevant persons assume no responsibility for the
information included in the present document and/or for the outcome of any investment decisions made according to such information.
Piraeus Bank Group is an organization with a significant presence in the Greek market and an increasing one in the international markets providing a wide range of investment services. In the context
of investment services offered by the Bank and/or any other Piraeus Group companies in general, there might be cases whereby conflict of interests may arise in relation to the information provided
herein. Reference should be made to the fact that the Bank, the relevant persons and/or other Piraeus Group companies indicatively:
Are not subject to any prohibition in relation to trading on own account or in the course of providing portfolio management services prior to the publication of this document or the acquisition of any
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May offer upon remuneration investment banking services to issuers for whom this document may contain information.
May participate to the issuers’ share capital or acquire other securities issued by the aforementioned issuers or attract other financial interests from them.
Might provide market making or underwriting services to issuers that might be mentioned in this document.
Might have published papers the content of which is different or incompatible to the information presented herein.
The Bank as well as the other Piraeus Group's companies have enacted, implement and maintain an effective policy, which prevents circumstances that may give rise to conflicts of interests and the
dissemination of any information among the departments (“chinese walls”) and they also constantly comply with the provisions and regulations relevant to inside information and market abuse. Also,
the Bank confirms that it doesn’t have any kind of interest or conflict of interest with a) any other legal entity or person that could have participated in the preparation of the present document and b)
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It is duly stated that: the investments described in the present document include investment risks, among which the risk of losing the entire capital invested. In particular, it is stated that;
The figures presented herein refer to the past and that the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
In case the figures refer to simulated past performance, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The return on investments might be positively or negatively affected as a result of currency fluctuations, in case the figures are denominated in a foreign currency (other than Euro).
Any forecasts in relation to future performance, may not be a reliable indicator of future performance.
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18

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“Over” and “Under” Valued Financial Institutions: Evidence from a “Fair-Value” P/B Econometric Model

  • 1. “OVER” AND “UNDER” VALUED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM A “FAIR-VALUE” P/B ECONOMETRIC MODEL Economic Research & Investment StrategyIlias Lekkos Veni Arakelian
  • 2. INTRODUCTION 2 • Part of our mandate in the formulation of the investment strategy of the Bank is to be able to identify and evaluate investment opportunities (either in the Fixed Income or in Equity space) within the financial institutions’ universe. • In that respect, our basic analytical tool is our Financial Institutions Assessment Model, which allows us to distill the entire universe of listed financial institutions in order to arrive at a shortlist of our preferred investment choices and sort them from the best to worst based on their financial strength, balance-sheet quality and finally their capital adequacy. • The aim of the present study is to introduce the second stage of our investment strategy process that allows us to evaluate the relative “overvalue” or “undervalue” of the shortlisted financial institutions based on the distance between their market-based price-to-book ratios (hereafter P/B) and our estimated “fair-value” P/B.
  • 3. WHY DO BANKS MERIT A DIFFERENT APPROACH? 3 The models analysts, investment strategists or even rating agencies use to evaluate financial institutions stand at a sharp contrast to the equivalent models used for the evaluation of non- financial corporates. This can be attributed to a number of unique features exhibited by financial institutions which drive a wedge between them and non-financial corporates. More specifically: a. Differences in accounting practices. Banks’ assets are by and large financial rather real. For that reason banks’ assets are more likely and easier to be marked to market instead of being carried at amortised cost. b. Depreciation. Following from the first point, real assets require a higher rate of depreciation. As a result, depreciation is a major driving force in non-financial corporate book values. In contrast, depreciation plays a minor role in financials. c. Regulation. Banks play a key role in the functioning of the economy and financial crises have the ability to depress economic growth for a prolonged period of time. For that reason, banks are tightly regulated entities and are required to maintain predefined levels of capital adequacy and liquidity. d. Provision for credit risk and the ability for “smoothing of earnings”. Provisioning policies may differ across financial institutions giving management discretion as to the timing of recognition and realization of losses.
  • 4. WHY P/B? 4 We have chosen price-to-book, P/B, or else the ratio of the market value of equity to its book value, as our preferred variable to model for a number of reasons: a. P/B reflects markets’ view of the additional intangible value created by banks’ management through the deployment of banks’ assets and liabilities. b. P/B reflects markets’ assessment on the discrepancies between the discounted future cash flows generated by each bank and its accounting valuation of equity. c. P/B reflects discrepancies between the markets’ view on the value of their assets and liabilities and their accounting treatment.
  • 5. FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B 5 Assets & Asset Quality 1. Assets (in logarithm) denominated in euros. 2. Problem Loans / Gross Loans (PL2GL): The ratio is used to compare the quality of loan portfolios among banks, as high Problem Loans / Gross Loans ratios can be interpreted as engagement in high-risk lending policies, which can lead to financial losses and a higher probability of bank failure. 3. Loan Loss Provisions / Gross Loans (LLP2GL): It is an indicator of how protected a bank is against future losses. A higher ratio means the bank has an enhanced capacity to absorb losses in an economic downturn or in the event of a recession.
  • 6. FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B 6 Capital Adequacy & Liquidity 5. Tier 1 Ratio (TIER1): It is the ratio that is most strongly associated with the true amount of capital that is being leveraged and therefore is a good way to understand a bank’s current leverage, defining the connection between a banks adjusted total assets (average total consolidated assets) and it’s core capital. 6. Shareholders’ Equity / Total Assets (SEq2TA): It represents the amount of assets on which shareholders have a residual claim in the event of a company-wide liquidation. 7. Gross Loans / Total Deposits (GL2TD): The loan-to-deposit ratio is the ratio of a bank’s total outstanding loans for a period to its total deposit balance. If the ratio is lower than one, the bank relies on its own deposits to make loans to its customers, without any outside financing. If on the other hand the ratio is greater than one, the bank borrows money which it re-loans at higher rates, rather than relying entirely on its own deposits. 8. Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (LBA2TB): A broad measure of the ratio between liquid and illiquid assets on banks’ balance-sheet.
  • 7. FACTORS DRIVING “FAIR-VALUE” P/B 7 Efficiency & Profitability 9. Cost to Income (C2I): It is the ratio of the Operating Expenses over the Operating Income generated. The Operating Expenses equal to the sum of Employees Cost and the Other Operating Expenses, whereas the Operating Income equals to Net Interest Income plus Other Income. The Cost to Income ratio gives a clear view of how efficiently the bank is being run. The lower the ratio, the more profitable the bank is. 10. Return On Assets (ROA): The most common way to calculate ROA is by dividing the Net Income over the Total Assets. Higher ROA indicates more asset efficiency. 11. Net Interest Margin (NIM): It measures the difference between interest paid and interest received, adjusted relative to the amount of interest-generating assets. It is calculated by dividing the Net Interest Income (i.e., the interest income – funding expense) over the Average Interest Earning Assets.
  • 8. METHODOLOGY 8 Our approach is based on a bank valuation model emphasizing the value created by banks’ core loan and deposit relationships (Calomiris and Nissim (2014)). In this setting, “fair-value” P/Bs would be driven by the market value of intangibles and other drivers of future earnings (Gordon (1962), Damodaran (2009)), to the extent that these are not already reflected in observed book values. In this context, we investigate the cross-sectional and time series relationship between banks’ P/Bs and the set of fundamental factors we have identified as key drivers of “fair-value” P/Bs. We used a sample of 61* banks (spanning 23 countries) with the highest scores in our FI Assessment Model. Formally, our model is set up as follows: 𝑷𝑩𝒊,𝒕 = 𝜷 𝟎 + 𝜷 𝟏 𝒍𝒐𝒈(𝑨𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒕𝒔)𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟐 PL2GL𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟑LLP2GL𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟒 TIER1 𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟓SEq2TA𝒊,𝒕 + 𝜷 𝟔GL2TD𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟕C2I𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟖 LBA2TB𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟗 𝑹𝑶𝑨𝒊,𝒕 +𝜷 𝟏𝟎 𝑵𝑰𝑴𝒊,𝒕 +𝜺𝒊,𝒕 where 𝑖 = 1, ⋯ , 61 and 𝑡 = 2011𝑄1 − 2017𝑄4. *In order to have a balanced panel data model, we exclude the financial institutions whose data are not available for the entire period.
  • 9. 9 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 25th-75th 10TH AVERAGE 90TH All the data are obtained from Moody’s Database. The figure below shows the evolution of the percentiles of the P/B data for the period 2011Q1-2017Q4. To save space, the descriptive statistics and the empirical distributions of the variables are reported in the Appendix. Figure 1: Percentiles for the P/B from 2011Q1-2014Q4 METHODOLOGY
  • 10. RESULTS: ESTIMATED PARAMETERS 10 Table 1: Cross-section and periods effects specification fixed Full sample (2011Q1 - 2017Q4) 2011Q1 - 2014Q4 2015Q1 - 2017Q4 Variable Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient C 3.133921* 4.043874* 3.048711* LOG(ASSETS) -0.118572* -0.225224* -0.133976 PL2GL -2.999671* -2.296433* -1.334242 LLP2GL 2.150798* 0.090946 3.187381 TIER1 0.011983* 0.023173* -0.000614 SEq2TA -4.786491* -5.988295* 1.45746 GL2TD -0.153145* -0.086043 -0.261685* LBA2TBA -0.321547* 0.284276 -0.613878* C2I -0.065811* -0.025012 0.053531 ROA 1.872391* 3.174834* -2.383626 NIM -1.092236 2.944508 7.661704 R-squared (%) 86.0593 90.0707 93.0315
  • 11. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 11 • The estimated coefficients are statistically significant (with the exception of NIM) and have in most cases the economically expected sign. • The model penalizes size given that the 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠) enter the model with a negative sign as well as financial institutions with low credit quality (negative coefficient on PL2GL) and rewards high level of provisioning (positive coefficient on LLP2GL). • High levels of profitability (ROA) and the efficiency (low C2I) are also having a positive impact on P/Bs. • High levels of TIER1 also push fair values of P/Bs higher but not the Seq2TA. • Finally, liquidity variables have a somewhat contradictory impact given that high levels of gross loans to deposits (GL2TD) are penalized but so too high levels of liquid assets to tangible banking assets (LBA2TBA). A possible explanation for this finding is that liquid assets improve liquidity but harm profitability given their low yielding capacity. • As a robustness check exercise, we split the period into two subperiods. The significance of the variables changes keeping some commonalities to the aggregate model, mainly with respect to the ability of the model to explain the variation of the P/B. This finding is of great importance, considering the international panel setting.
  • 12. BANKS SCORES: RANKING OF FI BASED ON P/BS DEVIATION FROM FAIR-VALUE 12 We evaluate P/B deviations from “fair-values” as of 2017Q4 and we sort the banks from under-valued to over-valued. Actual Fitted Residual z-score BPER Banca S.p.A. - 0.460 0.714 -0.253 -1.873 Mizuho Bank, Ltd. - 0.610 0.851 -0.241 -1.852 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (Municipal Deriv.) - 1.883 2.130 -0.247 -1.299 Credit Suisse Group AG - 0.737 1.033 -0.297 -1.297 Komercni Banka, a.s. - 1.721 1.995 -0.274 -1.223 Commonwealth Bank of Australia - 2.140 2.463 -0.323 -1.215 Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation - 0.665 0.798 -0.133 -1.170 Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. - 0.327 0.583 -0.257 -1.143 Deutsche Bank AG - 0.433 0.593 -0.160 -1.118 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce - 1.883 2.061 -0.178 -1.087 Australia and New Zealand Banking Grp. Ltd. - 1.423 1.712 -0.289 -1.076 Commerzbank AG - 0.370 0.532 -0.162 -1.063 United Overseas Bank Limited - 1.223 1.402 -0.179 -1.062 UniCredit S.p.A. - 0.501 0.628 -0.128 -1.043 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc - 0.692 0.805 -0.113 -0.931 Barclays Plc - 0.619 0.731 -0.112 -0.837 SunTrust Bank - 1.395 1.468 -0.073 -0.693 Bank of Nova Scotia - 1.740 1.933 -0.193 -0.671 Bank of America Corporation - 0.996 1.065 -0.070 -0.586 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. - 0.961 1.033 -0.072 -0.465 SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA - 0.885 0.950 -0.066 -0.457 Standard Chartered PLC - 1.113 1.263 -0.150 -0.425 Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. - 0.707 0.768 -0.061 -0.352 Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. - 0.907 0.951 -0.045 -0.290 National Australia Bank Limited - 1.617 1.675 -0.058 -0.286 Raiffeisen Bank International AG - 2.122 2.186 -0.063 -0.252 Westpac Banking Corporation - 1.836 1.875 -0.038 -0.158 State Street Bank and Trust Company - 0.742 0.759 -0.017 -0.127 Natixis - 1.158 1.175 -0.018 -0.114 Royal Bank of Canada - 2.167 2.176 -0.009 -0.078 Bank of Ireland - 0.864 0.866 -0.001 -0.003 Actual Fitted Residual z-score DNB Bank ASA - 0.873 0.838 0.035 0.149 CaixaBank, S.A. - 2.153 2.116 0.038 0.156 National Bank of Canada - 1.870 1.840 0.030 0.162 Wells Fargo & Company - 1.564 1.543 0.022 0.174 Sparebanken Sor - 0.820 0.774 0.046 0.187 Erste Group Bank AG - 1.040 1.010 0.031 0.201 Bank of Montreal - 1.628 1.603 0.025 0.239 Aktia Bank p.l.c. - 1.060 1.029 0.031 0.267 Jyske Bank A/S - 0.996 0.954 0.042 0.287 Svenska Handelsbanken AB - 1.735 1.701 0.034 0.310 Societe Generale - 0.739 0.697 0.042 0.406 Banco Sabadell, S.A. - 0.910 0.850 0.060 0.469 Lloyds Banking Group plc - 1.110 1.005 0.105 0.539 HSBC Holdings plc - 0.673 0.551 0.122 0.615 Citigroup Inc. - 0.792 0.744 0.049 0.783 Swedbank AB - 1.767 1.623 0.143 0.798 Bankia, S.A. - 0.891 0.554 0.336 0.820 Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) - 1.066 0.923 0.143 0.885 Bankinter, S.A. - 1.640 1.324 0.316 0.913 KBC Group N.V. - 1.608 1.326 0.283 0.913 SEB - 1.538 1.372 0.167 0.920 Sydbank A/S - 1.415 1.139 0.276 1.247 Macquarie Group Limited - 2.106 1.522 0.583 1.380 Danske Bank A/S - 1.444 1.163 0.281 1.503 Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) - 1.234 1.002 0.233 1.532 The Bank of New York - 1.373 1.060 0.313 1.912 KeyCorp - 1.392 1.027 0.365 2.431 JPMorgan Chase & Co. - 1.354 1.087 0.267 2.488 Nordea Bank AB - 0.867 0.657 0.210 2.798 Table 2: Bank Scoring Based on the P/B
  • 14. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF SELECTED VARIABLES 14 Figure 2: Price-to-book (P/B) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 0 40 80 120 160 200 2400.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Series:PB Sample2011Q12017Q4 Observations 1820 Mean 1.040677 Median 0.947434 Maximum 2.999640 Minimum 0.000000 Std.Dev. 0.540893 Skewness 0.621394 Kurtosis 2.913713 Jarque-Bera 117.6911 Probability 0.000000 Figure 3: Total Assets (Assets) in euros from 2011Q1-2017Q4 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 Series:LLP2GL Sample2011Q12017Q4 Observations1813 Mean 0.029789 Median 0.013604 Maximum 0.263732 Minimum 0.000000 Std.Dev. 0.039011 Skewness 2.834667 Kurtosis 12.79444 Jarque-Bera 9674.806 Probability 0.000000 Figure 4: Cost to Income (C2I) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 5: Gross Loans / Total Deposits (GL2TD) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 2 4 6 8 10 Series:C2I Sample2011Q12017Q4 Observations 1815 Mean 0.628260 Median 0.596027 Maximum 11.36941 Minimum -0.180787 Std.Dev. 0.357661 Skewness 18.36259 Kurtosis 488.6539 Jarque-Bera 17938890 Probability 0.000000 Figure 6: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets (LBA2TB) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 7: Loan Loss Provisions / Gross Loans (LLP2GL) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 0 40 80 120 160 200 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Series: PB Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1708 Mean 1.078419 Median 0.970976 Maximum 2.999640 Minimum 0.000000 Std. Dev. 0.524951 Skewness 0.660367 Kurtosis 2.903627 Jarque-Bera 124.7998 Probability 0.000000 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Series: LBA2TBA Sample2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 0.308486 Median 0.270032 Maximum 0.817949 Minimum 0.003771 Std. Dev. 0.154028 Skewness 0.968203 Kurtosis 4.055107 Jarque-Bera 345.0649 Probability 0.000000 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 Series: GL2TD Sample2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 1.072062 Median 1.005053 Maximum 2.669171 Minimum 0.062882 Std. Dev. 0.405120 Skewness 0.525488 Kurtosis 3.968490 Jarque-Bera 144.9340 Probability 0.000000 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Series: C2I Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 0.627020 Median 0.601326 Maximum 5.311377 Minimum -0.016802 Std. Dev. 0.258356 Skewness 9.724806 Kurtosis 156.6338 Jarque-Bera 1701696. Probability 0.000000 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 0 400000 800000 1200000 1600000 2000000 2400000 Series: ASSETS Sample2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 574431.9 Median 468242.4 Maximum 2399583. Minimum 4924.251 Std. Dev. 547186.7 Skewness 1.296756 Kurtosis 3.955795 Jarque-Bera 542.1112 Probability 0.000000 0 100 200 300 400 500 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 Series:LLP2GL Sample2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1701 Mean 0.022516 Median 0.012489 Maximum 0.108106 Minimum 0.000000 Std. Dev. 0.022824 Skewness 1.536235 Kurtosis 4.647017 Jarque-Bera 861.3249 Probability 0.000000
  • 15. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS OF SELECTED VARIABLES For illustration reasons, the next figure shows the bank problem loans to total gross loans globally. 15 Figure 10: Tier 1 Ratio (TIER1) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 8: Net Interest Margin (NIM) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 Figure 9: Shareholders’ Equity / Total Assets (SEq2TA) distribution from 2011Q1-2017Q4 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 Series: NIM Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 0.015447 Median 0.014970 Maximum 0.038127 Minimum -0.001749 Std. Dev. 0.006554 Skewness 0.576999 Kurtosis 3.164597 Jarque-Bera 96.41833 Probability 0.000000 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 Series: SEq2TA Sample2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1703 Mean 0.068197 Median 0.063864 Maximum 0.128865 Minimum -0.021452 Std. Dev. 0.021982 Skewness 0.658127 Kurtosis 3.260990 Jarque-Bera 127.7704 Probability 0.000000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Series: TIER1 Sample 2011Q1 2017Q4 Observations 1706 Mean 13.51835 Median 12.80000 Maximum 29.30000 Minimum 0.000000 Std. Dev. 3.222161 Skewness 1.098906 Kurtosis 7.102015 Jarque-Bera 1539.445 Probability 0.000000
  • 16. BANK PROBLEM LOANS TO TOTAL GROSS LOANS GLOBALLY 16 Figure 11: Bank problem loans to total gross loans (%). Source: www.indexmundi.com
  • 17. REFERENCES • Calomiris, Charles W., and Doron Nissim, 2014. Crisis-related shifts in the market valuation of banking activities, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 23, 400-435. • Damodoran, A., 2009. Valuing Financial Service Firms, mimeo. • Gordon, M., 1962. The Investing, Financing and Valuation of the Corporation, Homewood, IL: R D Irwin. 17
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