Regional RCE Americas Meeting 2016 "Renewable Energy and Sustainable Education"

1. Coordinator: Prof. Marcelo Risso Errera, Ph.D.
UFPR – Federal University of Paraná
Telefone: +55(41) 3361-3230 / 3030 E-mail: errera@ufpr.br
Energy and Environment Laboratory
Member of CRIE (RCE-Curitiba)
Curitiba, Oct. 19, 2016

2. 100 yearsUFPR – Federal University of Paraná
(historic building downtown Curitiba)

3. 100 years33.000 students and 2.500 faculty members

4. Curitiba and its sustainability
initiatives

7. 1

9. 1
1st 3rd Curitba
http://grist.org/article/cities3/

10. 1

11. 1

12. 1

13. 1

16. UFPR site

19. Ciclo vida website

20. Simulador

22. Theory to assess the contributions
of zero emission vehicles (ZEV) in
paradigm shift in urban fleets:
the effect of the effect of urban
fleet size on automotive vehicles
emissions
Errera, Marin and Stanescu
2

23. We love cars.

24. We love cars

25. Do Zero Emission Vehicles
(electric, hydrogen) contribute do
urban emissions ?
(in paradigm shift of urban fleets:
the effect of the effect of urban fleet size on automotive
vehicles emissions)
2

26. Errera/set/09 28
Summary
 Problem statement (factors)
 Urban mobility (needs, desires, choice criteria, ....)
 Modes (types, mass or individual transit)
 Infra-structure (city form, traffic management)
 Air quality conditions (emissions and dispersion)
 Model types for traffic simulation
 First simulators (Lighthill and Whitman, 1955)
 Deterministic, statistic and automatons
 Validation, calibration and limitations
 Usual traffic parameters
 Field data

27. The problem
 The matter of urban fleet emissions
 Factors that determine the emissions
 What is needed to control (stabilize or reduce)
 Vehicles emissions
 Lab tests, summed emissions, scale, technology,
vehicle use, fuel, driving skills, traffic management
2

28. 31
Purpose of the Model
 Purpose:
 To develop a model to estimate vehicle emissions
associated to traffic conditions (mainly fleet size)
 Model type:
 Macroscopic, deterministic and empirical,
saturated traffic, speed dependent emissions,
unchanging infra-estructure
 Adapted data

29. The model
f(N)Fleet size
(N ) Mean speed (v )
Emission
Factors (FE )
Fleet composition ( ) and
average yearly mileage (x)
Total anual
emissions (Et )
g(v)
traffic data
Lab tests
Ni ajFEj
k
xj( )
i
j=1
C
å
a

30. 33
Present model (traffic)
k=
N
route extension
=
N
L
Fundamental relations (Smit, R., 2006):
v = vfree 1-
N
ksL
æ
è
ç
ö
ø
÷

31. 34
v = -0,0277(k) + 30,725
R 2
= 0,9703
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 100 200 300 400 500
k ( v e h i c l e s / k m )
Vmean(km/h)
After data from CET, 2007
 Estimative based on field data (traffic engineering company of The City
of São Paulo) (L≈18 thousand km):
Curitiba (L = 4381km, IPPUC)
v =vfree 1-
N
ksL
æ
è
ç
ö
ø
÷
Present model (traffic)

32. Present model (emissions)
 Average speed varies solely with traffic
conditions
 Fuel burning pollutants (CO, NOx, HC, pm)
 Category (diesel and gasoline)
 Grouped by category and fuels
 Engine @ hot regime
 Stop-go traffic not detailed

33. Lab tests
 Chassi dinamometer

34.  Gasoline vehicles
(passenger cars)
 CETESB / IPEA, 1998
 Diesels vehicles (bus and
trucks)
EFCO =-4,51+
727
v
+1,34´10-3
v2
EFNOx =1,03+7,477´10-5
v2
EFHC =-0,28+62,48
1
v
EFCO =43,34-8,98lnv
EFHC =14,14-3,67lnv
EFNOx =37,21-6,46lnv
EFpm =1,74-0,32lnv
Present model (emissions)

35. 38
Present model (emissions)
 Total yearly emissions [ton poll / year]
 Pollutant, k; category j, period (year) i
 Mean Yearly Traveled distance, xj
 Category (j) fleet size nj
 EFj average speed and pollutant dependent
ETa,k
i
= Ea,j
k
( )
i
=
j=1
C
å njFEj
k
xj( )
i
=
j=1
C
å Ni ajFEj
k
xj( )
i
j=1
C
å

36. 39
 Goal: To estimate fleet size effect on the overall yearly
emissions [ton pollt / year]
 Scenario: Curitiba
 Registered fleet
 Average mileage
 Average speed profile adapted from São Paulo
 vfree = 40 km/h
 CO e NOx emissions
 Parametric variation
respect to fleet size
After DETRAN ref. 1996-2005
Grouped
categories
Composition (aj ) typical,
%
Year mileage, xj , km/yr
Automobiles 82,84 12.000
Bus + Trucks 17,16 80.000
Others 0,0 -
Total 100,00 -
Data input

37. Errera/set/09 40
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
fleet size, Ni in vehicles [ millions ]
ETa,CO,ETa,NOx[ton/year]
CO
____ with congestion effects
- - - - without congestion effects
NOx
 Variation of the overall yearly emissions according to fleet expasion
Traffic saturation
effects
results

38. Errera/set/09
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
fleet size, Ni in vehicles [ millions ]
dETa,k/dN[ton/1000veh.]
CO
____ with congestion effects
- - - - without congestion effects
NOx
results
 Emissions variation rate with fleet size
Traffic
saturation
effect
Marginal emissions
Equivalent to emissions
caused by ZEVs in the fleet

39. 42
Conclusion
 The model captured marginal pollution phenomena and
provided estimates under simplified conditions
 Marginal pollution would be present even for ZEVs
 That is ZEVs create traffic that in turn creates marginal
emissions from other conventional fuel cars
 Validation, calibration for each city is needed

40. Mais sobre CT & CL
•http://www.scoop.it/t/constructal-design

41. Agradecimentos
Marcelo Risso Errera
Energy and Environment Lab / GEANEX
Environmental Engineering Department – UFPR
Universidade Federal do Paraná
errera@ufpr.br