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Getting to Net Zero - for Everything

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A Presentation to the American Institute of Architects, Seattle, November 13, 2015

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Getting to Net Zero - for Everything

  1. 1. Guy Dauncey Seattle November 13, 2015
  2. 2. FOR EVERYTHING – Electricity, Transport, Buildings
  3. 3. FIVE KEY THOUGHTS
  4. 4. 1. The climate crisis is urgent and real
  5. 5. 2. We must change our future story from negative to positive, from worry and fear to determination and hope.
  6. 6. 3. The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy as quickly as we possibly can.
  7. 7. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan 4. The challenge is huge, but it’s mostly achievable
  8. 8. 5. We will need the best policies, taxes, initiatives and regulations to help us get there.
  9. 9. We will also need our very best leaders Nov 3, 2015
  10. 10. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  11. 11. 1
  12. 12. 1. The climate crisis is urgent and real
  13. 13. Potsdam Institute
  14. 14. The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.” - James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
  15. 15. Alaska, Summer 2015
  16. 16. Alaska, Summer 2015
  17. 17. Washington State Forest Fires Summer 2015
  18. 18. British Columbia 2015
  19. 19. British Columbia 2015
  20. 20. 2015
  21. 21. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
  22. 22. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  23. 23. The Shanghai region facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase
  24. 24. Tianjin (near Beijing) facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase. Population 7 million.
  25. 25. Vancouver, BC, facing + 2° C and + 4° C temperature increase
  26. 26. To what extent do you agree or disagree? “The climate change we are currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.” IPSOS/MORI 2014
  27. 27. To what extent do you agree or disagree? “The climate change we are currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.” IPSOS/MORI 2014
  28. 28. “The climate change we are currently seeing is largely the result of human activity.” IPSOS/MORI 2014
  29. 29. “We are heading for an environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly.” IPSOS/MORI 2014
  30. 30. 2
  31. 31. 2. We must change our future story from negative to positive, from fear and worry to hope and determination.
  32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com HOPE WORRY or ?
  33. 33. What is our future?
  34. 34. What is our future?
  35. 35. Let’s put fossil fuels in their historical context
  36. 36. For more than 300,000 years, we have harvested the Sun’s energy using firewood
  37. 37. For the past 300 years, we have been harvesting it from ancient fossil fuels
  38. 38. It was fossil fuels that launched the Industrial Age, and the whole modern world.
  39. 39. It is fossil fuels that have made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.
  40. 40. We should not vilify fossil fuels. We should thank them, and then say “It’s time to move on.”
  41. 41. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been THE LAUNCH RAMP
  42. 42. for the Solar Age
  43. 43. A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
  44. 44. A billion years And with every passing year, solar technologies will improve and fall in price. The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
  45. 45. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year CO2 reduction
  46. 46. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year renewable energy increase
  47. 47. 3
  48. 48. 3. The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy as quickly as we possibly can.
  49. 49. 2015
  50. 50. 2°C
  51. 51. 2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’ James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
  52. 52. for a 75% chance that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C The 2015 Global Carbon Budget 493Gigatonnes of CO2
  53. 53. Zero By 2040
  54. 54. The 2040 Imperative
  55. 55. Austin Texas: “As soon as we can, but no later than 2050.”
  56. 56. Starting today
  57. 57. Starting 2020
  58. 58. INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
  59. 59. 4
  60. 60. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan 4. The challenge is mostly achievable
  61. 61. THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  62. 62. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  63. 63. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  64. 64. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables 3. 100% of our building heat from renewables THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  65. 65. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables 3. 100% of our building heat from renewables 4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  66. 66. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables 3. 100% of our building heat from renewables 4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables 5. To end deforestation across the world THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  67. 67. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables 3. 100% of our building heat from renewables 4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables 5. To end deforestation across the world 6. To eat much less red meat THE SEVEN BIG CHALLENGES
  68. 68. 1. 100% of our electricity from renewable energy 2. 100% of our transportation from renewables 3. 100% of our building heat from renewables 4. 100% of industrial heat from renewables 5. To end deforestation across the world 6. To store carbon in forests and farms 7. To eat much less red meat 8. For the whole planet THE EIGHT BIG CHALLENGES
  69. 69. 1977: $77 1997: $7 2013: $0.7 Price of Solar Module per Watt The Solar Revolution is Happening
  70. 70. Natural gas fuel cost projections, 2015-2040 Solar PV purchase agreements, 2015-2040
  71. 71. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000 200 GW in 2014
  72. 72. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
  73. 73. Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany
  74. 74. Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK
  75. 75. Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year
  76. 76. Taiwan Solar Stadium
  77. 77. 70 GW
  78. 78. Solar panels on the roof of greenhouses growing mushrooms Neihuang county, Henan province, China Reuters
  79. 79. The Solar Tsunami
  80. 80. Egypt: 7 million vehicles = 2 million tonnes of CO2 a year
  81. 81. 7 million ELECTRIC vehicles If each travels 10,000 km a year Average 20 kwh per 100 km = 14,000 GWh a year
  82. 82. Solar in the Middle East 85 sq km = 14,000 GWh/year
  83. 83. Egypt = 1 million sq km
  84. 84. Egypt = 1 million sq km
  85. 85. Egypt = 1 million sq km Solar PV for 7 million vehicles = 85 sq km
  86. 86. Egypt = 1 million sq km .Solar PV for 7 million vehicles = 85 sq km
  87. 87. Planned Ouarzazate Solar Thermal Plant Morocco
  88. 88. Palouse Wind Project, Washington State
  89. 89. Mark Jacobson Stanford
  90. 90. TRANSPORTATION Plan to shift all modes of transport to 100% renewable energy
  91. 91. Transportation without Oil A Vision of the Future
  92. 92. We love you mama!!
  93. 93. This used to be full of traffic Times Square, New York
  94. 94. This used to be a highway Seoul, South Korea
  95. 95. stephanekirkland.com Place de la République, Paris 2006 This used to be a traffic chaos
  96. 96. This used to be the Alaska Way Viaduct…
  97. 97. This used to be six lanes of busy traffic
  98. 98. This used to be rusty old railway line
  99. 99. In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
  100. 100. Safe protected bike lane, San Francisco
  101. 101. Seville Bike Lane Spain
  102. 102. Copenhagen Bicycle-Bridge
  103. 103. Solar bike lane, South Korea
  104. 104. The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, Holland Connects Eindhoven and Veldhoven
  105. 105. Future Bloor St Bike Route, Toronto
  106. 106. Granville Street Future Bridge Vancouver
  107. 107. Electric Bikes
  108. 108. The Copenhagen Wheel
  109. 109. Australia’s Brightbus: 625 miles range
  110. 110. China – Fast-Charging Electric Bus
  111. 111. Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus 170 miles range
  112. 112. Top Hiroko – 120 km (62 miles) range
  113. 113. Top
  114. 114. Smart Electric – 135 km range 84 miles
  115. 115. Nissan Leaf – 120 km range- 75 miles
  116. 116. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Mitsubishi MiEV- 150 km range 93 miles
  117. 117. Tesla Model X: 250 miles range
  118. 118. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
  119. 119. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries 2018
  120. 120. Estimates of costs of lithium batteries in electric vehicles
  121. 121. Estimates of costs of lithium batteries in electric vehicles
  122. 122. From 2025, all BMWs to be electric
  123. 123. 1 in 4
  124. 124. BMW 100% electric truck, Germany
  125. 125. Modec Electric Trucks, UK
  126. 126. Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat 5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip
  127. 127. Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet
  128. 128. Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet
  129. 129. Aviation: nothing ready yet
  130. 130. Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
  131. 131. Planned Zero Carbon Energy Center Wuhan, China BUILDINGS
  132. 132. THREE HUGE CHALLENGES 1. All new buildings need to be zero-carbon 2. All existing buildings need to be retrofitted to become zero-carbon 3. New District Heat networks need to be built that use renewable energy
  133. 133. The 2030 Challenge
  134. 134. The 2030 Challenge and the AIA 2030 Commitment have been adopted by: • 70% of world’s top 20 A/E/P firms • 52% of all US architecture firms • The AIA • The USGBC • The US Conference of Mayors • The US Federal Government • The White House • National Governors Association • Washington, Illinois, California, Minnesota • and many others
  135. 135. New Buildings
  136. 136. Passive House LEED Living Building ChallengeNet Zero Energy
  137. 137. Passive House Institute US www.phius.org Passive House construction reduces conventional heat load by 90% and overall energy by up to 70%.
  138. 138. Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost www.bernhardtpassive.com
  139. 139. www.bernhardtpassive.com
  140. 140. www.bernhardtpassive.com
  141. 141. Heating used 12.5 kWh/(m2.a) in first year compared to the design value of 15 kWh/(m2.a). Conventional designs use 12 x more. Passive House Indoor Tennis Hall, Vaxjo, Sweden
  142. 142. Eight-storey wood-framed Passive Buildings Vaxjo, Sweden
  143. 143. Passive House in Santa Cruz, California
  144. 144. The largest Passive House building in the world: the “RHW.2” in Vienna
  145. 145. The largest Passive House building in the world: the “RHW.2” in Vienna
  146. 146. Optimize Energy Performance: 6% performance improvement = 1 point 50% performance improvement (max) = 18 points
  147. 147. Annual Energy Use: 1% performance improvement = 1 point 90% performance improvement (max) = 29 points
  148. 148. Building Retrofits
  149. 149. By 2050: 5,700 a year 3% a year Building Retrofits Seattle 655,000 people 200,000+ buildings? By 2030: 13,500 a year 7% a year By 2040: 8,000 a year 4% a year
  150. 150. Germany plans to improve the energy efficiency renovation rate of its existing building stock from 1% to 2%, and later to 3% per year.
  151. 151. blog.floridaenergycenter.org
  152. 152. Six Sources of Renewable Heat Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat
  153. 153. “Honey, what on Earth are they doing to our lawn?”
  154. 154. Geothermal Radial Drilling From Austria www.tracto-technik.com
  155. 155. “Oh my, do you fancy a coffee when you’re done?”
  156. 156. Renewable District Heat
  157. 157. Ocean-source heat Brentwood College, Mill Bay, BC
  158. 158. The aquathermal buildings use 25% of the energy used by the other buildings. 13 months to pay for themselves.
  159. 159. The loops lie 30 feet deep in Saanich Inlet, covering 1,000 square feet. Stainless steel exchangers provided a $250,000 savings compared to the cost of traditional heat exchangers.
  160. 160. Stokmarknes Hospital, Norway: thermal energy from the ocean provides nearly 90% of the heat
  161. 161. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta. Solar Thermal District Heat
  162. 162. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C). www.dlsc.ca
  163. 163. The Energy Centre Community solar heat panels Solar hot water panels Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Solar heating throughout the cold Alberta winter
  164. 164. BedZed, London, 1990. Biomass District Heat. Failed to work – now natural gas. The wood chip gasifier had reliability problems due to technical problems and an imposed no late-night operation rule. Biomass District Heat
  165. 165. In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments Sewer-Source District Heat
  166. 166. Vancouver South-East False Creek Sewer-Source District Heat
  167. 167. Pre-insulated piping used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia. Delivery of hot water at 200o C to customers up to 23 km away, net loss of only a few degrees.
  168. 168. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero 100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage + Biomass cogeneration plant Stored Solar District Heat
  169. 169. Marstal Solar Heat Storage Tank, Denmark
  170. 170. Solar Thermal Heat Storage Tank
  171. 171. Surrey, BC, Canada Planned District Heat: • Industrial Waste Heat • Sewer Heat Recovery • Geo-Exchange • Solar Thermal Heat • Refrigeration Heat Recovery • Biomass/Woodwaste • District Heat • CHP Hybrid Renewable District Heat
  172. 172. 5
  173. 173. 5. We will need the best policies, taxes, incentives and regulations to help us get there.
  174. 174. Passive Building Regulations In Europe www.passivehouse-international.org Crossway Passive House, Kent, England
  175. 175. European Union Legislation By 2019, all new public buildings nearly Net Zero By 2021, all new buildings nearly Net Zero
  176. 176. Freiburg, Germany Since 2011 the Passive House standard has been mandatory.
  177. 177. Hamburg, Germany Since 2012, municipal funding for new housing projects granted exclusively to Passive Houses.
  178. 178. District of Lippe All new buildings to Passive House Standard. Also applied when retrofitting existing buildings. Indoor swimming pool, Lunen, Lippe
  179. 179. Hanover 300 terraced houses, semi-detached and detached SF houses being built to PH Standard. 1998
  180. 180. Cologne Since 2010, all new buildings in Cologne must be designed under the Passive House concept
  181. 181. Brussels All buildings and retrofits to be Nearly-Zero Energy by the end of 2015 based on the Passive House Standard.
  182. 182. Since 2015, every new building must be built to passivhaus standards. Conversion of a 1930s vintage office building into condos MDW Architecture
  183. 183. Renovation and Part-New Construction of Former Brewery to Offices and Hotel by Architects l’Escaut
  184. 184. Mixed New Build and retrofit Passive House Apartment Building by A2M
  185. 185. Passive House Childcare Project by A2M
  186. 186. A2M Company Data, 2015
  187. 187. = 4 million sq. ft.
  188. 188. Brussels took a top down approach with its legislation, but gained support from the base by implementing incentives starting in 2010 to help builders and designers get on track, including a $12/SF incentive for exemplary high-performance buildings. 90% of the grant was given to the owners, 10% to the design team to encourage innovation. “If it’s not smart, beautiful, and inspiring, the Passive House movement could not take off. ” - Joke Dockx, Director for Energy at the Brussels Institute for Management of the Environment By 2015, Brussels had 15 million sq. ft. of Passive House space. Brussels Belgium
  189. 189. Total energy consumption Total GHGs Employment Population
  190. 190. www.bepassive.be
  191. 191. The PassREg project ended in April 2015. All the deliverables, important best practices and related resources can be found here: www.passreg.eu
  192. 192. San Francisco Includes projects that aim for Passive House or EnerPHit certification in their list of options for fast-track planning approval.
  193. 193. Marin County, CA The applicable green building rating system shall be that which is most recently adopted by Build It Green, the U.S. Green Building Council or the Passive House Institute.
  194. 194. New York City To dramatically reduce GHGs from buildings city-wide by 2050, New York will look to “Passive House, carbon neutral, or `zero net energy’ strategies to inform the standards.” New York Times
  195. 195. State of Pennsylvania Incentives for Passive House compliance of multi-family buildings. Under Energy Efficiency Goals, Passive House is the only standard listed: “The development meets/will meet Passive House Certification for energy efficiency.”
  196. 196. Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City
  197. 197. Vancouver’s Zero-Emissions Building (ZEB) Priorities • All new buildings to be zero-emission by 2030 • Demonstrate ZEB standards in new City buildings • Ensure rezoning policy leads the transition to ZEBs • Incentivize and streamline the development of ZEBs • Establish + enforce GHG intensity limits for new dev’t • Develop innovative financing tools to help fund new ZEBs • Establish partnerships to build industry capacity • Mandate building energy benchmarking and labeling
  198. 198. Vancouver 100% Renewable Energy City Zero-Emissions Building Priorities Retrofit existing buildings to perform like new construction • Mandate energy efficiency improvements for existing buildings • Provide flexibility to achieve energy efficiency requirements through the support of on-site generation or neighbourhood energy system connection
  199. 199. In Conclusion
  200. 200. The climate crisis is urgent and real
  201. 201. We must change our future story from negative to positive, from worry and fear to determination and hope.
  202. 202. The fundamental solution is to get to 100% renewable energy as quickly as we possibly can.
  203. 203. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan The challenge is huge, but it’s mostly achievable
  204. 204. 5. We will need the best policies, taxes, incentives and regulations to help us get there.
  205. 205. We’ll also need the best local leadership
  206. 206. “The thing always happens that you really believe in; and the belief in a thing makes it happen.” - Frank Lloyd Wright
  207. 207. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  208. 208. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.co Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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