Resilience Analytics How Are They Generated and Consumed, Robert MUIR-WOOD
•
0 likes•121 views
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to Resilience Analytics How Are They Generated and Consumed, Robert MUIR-WOOD
Similar to Resilience Analytics How Are They Generated and Consumed, Robert MUIR-WOOD (20)
More from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
More from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos (20)
Resilience Analytics How Are They Generated and Consumed, Robert MUIR-WOOD
- 1. 1Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. RESILIENCE ANALYTICS: HOW THEY ARE GENERATED AND CONSUMED Robert Muir-Wood Aug 30th 2016
- 2. 2Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. WHAT ARE RESILIENCE ANALYTICS? Analytics developed to drive greater resilience Could be the outputs of a model – What range of metrics? Or actual heuristics – How measured and processed? Or metrics for setting and measuring resilience targets – Modeled or empirical
- 3. 3Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. LOSS HEURISTICS: APPLICATIONS OF INSURANCE CLAIMS DATA FOR REDUCING RISK Since 2008 insurers’ claims sharing with the Norwegian Natural Perils Pool was facilitated through a standardized peril classification and address-level exposure and claims data. – Almost 70% of flood claims were found to be from urban rainfall – In 2014 in a pilot of ten municipalities (including Oslo) Finans Norway delivered address-level data, so that the city engineer could identify and implement remedial actions. In France: since 2010 National Risks Observatory takes all Cat Nat claims and performs forensic investigations to show municipalities how to reduce future losses. In Queensland (Australia) insurers were under political pressure to offer universal flood insurance following major floods in 2011. – At the town of Roma, inundated five times in six years, insurers published the addresses of the properties that had been repeatedly flooded and refused to renew their insurance – Successfully encouraging the local council to fund flood alleviation measures.
- 4. 4Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. THE ROLE OF CATASTROPHE MODELLING IN INCENTIVIZING RESILIENCE Stronger building codes Detailed vulnerability modelling Reduced insurance costs
- 5. 5Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOR A SEA WALL Currently 1m wall 2m wall – cost $30M annual flood savings $10M 2.5m wall cost $60M annual flood savings $15M 3m wall cost $120M annual flood savings $20M water height probability loss probability
- 6. 6Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. 6 FRAMEWORK FOR CASUALTY MODELING Damage & Collapse Ground motion Footprints CasualtiesGenerate Stoch. Events Building Stock inventory Human 24 hr Exposure
- 7. 7Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. TOKYO CITY EMBRACES MODELING TO DRIVE RESILIENCE MARCH 31ST 2015 Estimated death toll from a predicted major earthquake directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area could be halved from 23,000 if authorities adopt a new 10-year risk management plan. Reduce by 50 percent the 610,000 buildings that could be destroyed. 309 municipalities in 10 prefectures required to collaborate Aim to lift the proportion of buildings with earthquake-resistant features to 95 percent by 2020 from an estimated 80 percent in 2008. Fire-prevention measures, including circuit breakers, to be boosted in areas crowded with wooden houses, Also measures to prevent fires in the waterfront areas of Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures, where large petrochemical complexes are located.
- 8. 8Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. THE NEW PUBLIC SECTOR USERS OF RESILIENCE ANALYTICS Chief Resilience Officer Christchurch NZ Chief Finance Officer City of Bonney Lake WA Disaster Manager Bodrum, Turkey
- 9. 9Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. THE 2025 AGENDA FOR CITIES AND GOVERNMENTS Resilient Governance Resilience Analytics Long-term Risk Reduction Innovative Risk Transfer Climate Change
- 10. 10Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. THE FUTURE FOR RESILIENCE ANALYTICS Progress needs to be measured, audited and reported Targets should wherever possible be numerical Both modelled output and empirical data If you can’t measure it – you can’t manage it!
- 11. 11Copyright © 2015 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.. ‘THE CURE FOR CATASTROPHE’ CONSIDERS THE RESILIENCE MOVEMENT AND THE APPLICATION OF CAT MODELS BY CITIES
Editor's Notes
- For example, may want to consider alterntative coastal flood protection schems – evaulating each for the savings in floods that do not happen. s
- The tools of catastrophe modeling are starting to be used by cities planning their strategies of resilience . Tools are required because we never know which catastrophe is going to happen next, so we need to plan for a wide range of possibilities. In the city of the government there will be three separate classes of catastrophe model user, all wanting to access the saame underlying model but wanting to interogate that model in very different ways. First there is the chief resilience officer, like this one for Christchurch New Zealand. He or she will need to have identified a ciomplete audit of the buildingsand infrastucture of the city. Will want to know from the model where risk is concentrated – ris of causlaties, of economic loss, of damaged buildings range of metrics. Will want to explore the cost benefit of alternative interventions to see which will give the biggest reduction in risk.
- So this is the agenda for cities and governments. First to create resiliant governance that focuses on the resilience agenda. This will be supported by all the resilience analytics powered by the engine of localized catastrophe loss modeling, from which it will be posisble to design the appropriate strategies f long term risk reduction, and then for risks that cannot be reduced – for innovative risk transfer – all under a world in which facets of the climate, from sea level rise to intense rainfall events and heatwaves are changing.