Presentation given at the 12th International IPM Symposium (Memphis, TN USA on 27-29 March 2012) by Keith Cressman. FAO operates an early warning system to keep the international donor community and some 30 affected countries informed of the Desert Locust situation and potential developments concerning breeding and migration. The system is the basis of the preventive control strategy to reduce plagues. Remote sensing products are used operationally to help detect rainfall and green vegetation in locust habitats and to guide survey teams. Custom GIS applications are utilized in affected countries and at FAO for data analysis. An overview of these technologies, including lessons learned during the past two decades, is presented.

1. Desert Locust vs. IPM

2. Recession area
16 million km2
Invasion area
20% Earth’s land

3. irregular recessions and plagues
(1860 - 2011)
0
10
20
30
40
50
1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10
non plague plaguecountries with swarms

4. 23 countries
$400 million
130k km2 sprayed
2003-05 regional plague

5. Combination of best possible practices
Strategic
management not eradication
preventive before curative
Operational
24/7 monitoring & forecasting
GIS & remote sensing (find more infestations faster)
targeted & timely control
use biopesticides & barrier treatments
2003-05 2006-12
millions ha sprayed
13 0.4

6. front-line
secondary
invasion
FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations
D E S E R T L O C U S T B U L L E T I N
No. 401
(2 Mar 2012)
A Desert Locust outbreak developed in early
February in southwest Libya. Some adults moved
into adjacent areas of southeast Algeria where
local infestations were already present. Survey
and control operations were limited due to
insecurity in both areas. Good rains that fell in
both countries will allow a second generation of
breeding to occur during March and April. This
is expected to cause locust numbers to increase
dramatically and hopper bands to form. Scattered
adults arriving from northern Niger may augment
local populations. All efforts are required to
monitor the situation carefully and undertake the
necessary control operations to avoid a further
escalation in the situation. Elsewhere, there was
very little locust activity in the winter breeding
areas along both sides of the Red Sea due to
poor rainfall and dry conditions. In South-West
Asia, small-scale breeding is expected to occur
during the forecast period in western Pakistan and
southeastern Iran but locust numbers will remain
below threatening levels.
Western Region. An outbreak developed in early
February in southwest Libya near the Algerian
border as a result of good rains in October 2011 and
General Situation during February 2012
Forecast until mid-April 2012
near Djanet. National ground teams treated 2,365
ha in Libya and 230 ha in Algeria during February.
Good rains fell over a large area at mid-month and
high-density adult groups were seen copulating.
Consequently, a second generation of breeding will
occur with hatching and hopper band formation during
March and April. This is expected to cause locust
numbers to increase dramatically in Libya and, to a
lesser extent, in Algeria. The situation is not entirely
on both sides of the border that hamper survey and
control operations. In northern Niger, scattered adults
that are likely to be present in the Air Mountains may
move into southern Algeria during March. No locusts
were reported elsewhere in the region.
Central Region. Vegetation continued to dry out
in the winter breeding areas along both sides of
the Red Sea due to a lack of rain during February.
Nevertheless, breeding conditions were favourable on
the southern coast in Sudan where scattered adults
were present and laying eggs, and on the central Red
Sea coast in Yemen. Isolated adults were present in
northern Oman. No locusts were seen during surveys
in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. During the forecast
period, limited hatching will occur in Sudan but no
warning level: CAUTION
data collection • analysis • inform www.fao.org/ag/locusts

7. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 mm
Rainfall estimates
0.25 degree
daily, decadal, monthly
daily averages of 3-hourly CMORPH (NOAA/CPC)
source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA)

8. 20 50 100 180 300% normal rainfall
Seasonal predictions
rainfall & temperature forecasts
6 months in advance, updated monthly
ECMWF anomaly 1981-2012
source: Prescient Weather (PA, USA)

9. MODIS imagery
250m
every 16 days
NDVI (green vegetation)
source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA)

10. MODIS imagery (NW Mauritania, Oct 2010)

11. onset of green vegetation (weeks)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12. rainfall estimate
greenness map
locust survey & control data
reference (Landsat & TPC)

13. Key to success
use appropriate products available on time
beware of RS limitations
open source / module architecture GIS
provide sufficient training & support
Keith Cressman
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
UN FAO, Rome
keith.cressman@fao.org
www.fao.org/ag/locusts