Central Asia has experienced significant agricultural transformation since the 1990s but still faces challenges from climate change. IFPRI research analyzed the impact of climate change on agriculture in Central Asia using econometric models, crop models, and an economy-wide model. The research found the impact of temperature and precipitation variations on agriculture to be heterogeneous across countries. While institutional changes have muted the effects of climate change, climate change is still projected to negatively impact yields of some spring crops according to crop simulations. Scenario analysis with an economy-wide model found potential declines in crop yields, areas, and welfare in some countries under climate change. Future research areas include analyzing intensified climate effects and alternative adaptation technologies.

1. Agricultural Transformation and Food
Security Under Climate Change in Central
Asia
Kamiljon T. Akramov, IFPRI, Washington, DC
Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture Workshop
4-6 July 2016, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

2. Outline
• Introduction
• Agricultural transformation, food security, and
nutrition in Central Asia
• IFPRI research on climate change, agriculture,
and food security in Central Asia
– Objectives, methodology, models, expected
outputs, & activities
– Empirical results
• Future research

3. Introduction
• Agricultural sector in Central Asia transformed
significantly during last 25 years
• Climate change and its impacts on agriculture and food
security are evident throughout Central Asia (World Bank
2013)
• Analysis of current situation and examination of
alternative future scenarios and policy options in a
systematic manner, considering future uncertainties, is
necessary
• Unfortunately, capacity for modeling and scenario
analysis in Central Asia is limited

4. Agricultural transformation in Central Asia
• Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included…
– Reduction of government involvement in decision-making
– Land reform and farm reorganization
– Building markets and institutions
• Land reform and farm reorganization solved agency problem in
the region to various degrees
• Reforms stimulated agricultural diversification
– Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food and high value
agriculture
– Yields in food and high value agriculture constantly increasing
• During past one and half decade, the region enjoyed strong
agricultural and economic growth
– Per capita incomes increased and poverty significantly declined

5. Agricultural transformation in Central Asia
(1990-2014) – “Ruttan-a-gram”
1990
1998
2014
1990
1995
2014
1990
1998
2014
1990
1998
20101990
1996
2014
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
500 1000 2000 4000
GAOperhectareofagriculturallandadjustedtorainfed-croplandequivalents
(USD/ha)
GAO per economically-active worker in agriculture (USD/worker)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Source: Authors’ depiction using data From Fuglie (2012); World Bank (2015) & national statistical agencies

6. IFPRI research on climate change, agriculture and
food security in Central Asia
• Objectives
Provide empirical evidence of the impact of climate change
on agricultural performance in the region using econometric
models
Assess the impact of climate change on crop yields using
biophysical and bioeconomic crop models
Evaluate the effects of future climate change scenarios on
agriculture & food security using economy-wide models
Strengthen analytical and modeling capacity in the region
• Expected outputs
IFPRI’s Global Impact Model adopted for Central Asian
countries’ specific conditions
IFPRI book to inform debate on the role of climate change in
Central Asia’s agriculture and food security

7. IFPRI research on climate change, agriculture and
food security in Central Asia (cont.)
• Country coverage
Kazakhstan – International School of Economics at KBTU
Kyrgyzstan – University of Central Asia
Tajikistan – team of freelance researchers
Uzbekistan – Westminster International University in Tashkent
• Activities
– Training, country and regional workshops
– Updating databases and FPUs
– Research and publication
• Project is at the final stage now

8. Climate change scenarios for the region
• Overall, Central Asia is projected to experience greater climate
shocks than most regions through temperature changes
• GFDL: Predicts the smallest possible temperature increase of the
four and more precipitation in parts of Central Asia (north-eastern
Kazakhstan)
• IPSL: Higher temperatures and smaller precipitation are expected
in the southern and central Kazakhstan and the rest of the Central
Asian region
• HGEM: The highest temperature increase is expected in the
eastern part of the region
• MIROC: Higher temperature but with smaller precipitation in the
south and more in the north of Kazakhstan

9. Climate scenarios: GFDL (Temperature and Precipitation
change)

10. Climate scenarios: MIROC (Temperature and Precipitation
change)

11. Climate scenarios: IPSL (Temperature and Precipitation
change)

12. Climate scenarios: HGEM (Temperature and Precipitation
change)

13. Empirical evidence on the impact of
climate change
• Econometric analysis accounted for specific characteristics of the
region
– Irrigation, distribution of precipitation, variations in temperature
• Data – NASA’s MERRA database, WDI, Fuglie et al (2012), & NSOs.
• The negative impact of variations in temperature and
precipitation on agricultural performance is heterogeneous
across countries
– Smaller and less wealthy countries appear more affected than larger and
more wealthy countries
• The magnitude of institutional and organizational changes in
agriculture seems significantly mute the impact of climate
change
– Time trend is always statistically significant

14. Potential impact of climate change on future
yields and productivity
• DSSAT model, which simulates daily weather based on
the monthly climate data
• SPAM model to estimate how much of the crop is grown
in each pixel, and use that for a weighted average of yield
changes for each country
• Crop model simulations suggest
– Opportunities (mostly for winter crops, but also some
specific crops in specific countries)
– Challenges (mostly for spring crops)

15. Empirical results from Global IMPACT model
simulations
• Baseline, climate change and policy scenarios
• Kazakhstan
– Both IMPACT model simulations and regression analysis support
the negative impact of temperature and the positive impact of
the precipitation on wheat yield
• Kyrgyzstan
– IMPACT model simulations suggest area increases for fruits,
vegetables, and maize
• Tajikistan
– Crop yields and area decline, net trade worsens, which may lead
to welfare losses
• Uzbekistan
– Negative impact on cotton and wheat yields, increase in
harvested area for temperate fruits, and vegetable yields

16. Future research
• Potential intensification of climate effects are not included in
our analysis
– Variability of weather may increase with climate change (more
droughts, more intense rainfall, more heat waves)
• Potential mitigation impact of alternative adaptive
agricultural technologies
– Rosegrant et al. (2014) use DSSAT and Global IMPACT models to
estimate potential impacts of 11 agricultural technologies on
productivity and food security
• General equilibrium effects – national, regional, and global
– Adjustments in trade patterns and integration forces, may offset
asymmetric national effects on selected countries

17. Thank you