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1 Rosegrant- IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New Developments

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A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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1 Rosegrant- IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New Developments

  1. 1. IMPACT Model, Baseline, and Scenarios: New Developments Mark W. Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe, Sherman Robinson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Shahnila Islam, and Nicostrato Perez Environment and Production Technology International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC, USA Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Conference IFPRI Washington, DC November 7, 2014
  2. 2. Outline  Improvements in IMPACT 3  New Look at • Climate Change under IPCC AR5 • Livestock Scenarios  Conclusions
  3. 3. IMPACT Model System
  4. 4. What is new in IMPACT?  Geographic and crop disaggregation • 58 agricultural commodities  Prices and markets • Three markets: farm gate, national, international • Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities  Land allocation to crops  Activity-Commodity framework  New Water models: hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crops  Modularity of the IMPACT model system
  5. 5. IMPACT 3 Spatial Disaggregation 159 • Countries 154 • Water Basins 320 • Food Production Units
  6. 6. Land Allocation to Crops  Land types: irrigated and rainfed land  Demand for land by crop is a function of commodity price and shadow price of land  Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land shift in response to irrigation investment in each region (FPU)  Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and demand for land by type and region • Solution determines allocation of land to crops
  7. 7. Oilseed Activity-Commodity Value Chain Activity • Soybean Farm (jsoyb) • Demands land, fertilizer, labor Activity Output • Soybean Commodity (csoyb) Activity • Soybean Processing (jsbol) • Demands soybeans (csoyb) at market price Processed Commodities • Soybean Oil (csbol) • Soybean Meal (csbml)
  8. 8. IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models  Modularity: “a la carte” • Use only the modules you need • Modules can be run in “stand-alone” mode as separate models (e.g., water models)  Linking modules • Model system is driven by core multimarket economic model (IMPACT 3) • Standardized data transfer between modules - Information flows: dynamic interaction with core model
  9. 9. Baseline and Climate Change Results  Core drivers: population, GDP, land  Climate change: • Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate change • Different assumptions about climate drivers: socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways  Changes in technology
  10. 10. Sources of Technology Change  Underlying Intrinsic Productivity Rates (IPRs) • Exogenous trends in yields  Climate Change: • Water: Hydrology, water basin management, water stress on crop yields • Temperature: Crop Models (DSSAT)  Market Effects • Changes in prices affect farmer behavior and yields (e.g. fertilizer use)
  11. 11. Core Drivers – Population, GDP, and Land (SSP2)
  12. 12. New Look at Climate Change under IPCC-AR 5
  13. 13. Climate Change Scenarios: Terminology  AR4 • SRES – Special Report on Emissions Scenarios  AR5 • SSPs – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways • RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways •SSP •RCP SRES (A1B, B1, etc.)
  14. 14. RCP – Climate Trends  RCP 2.6 is below anything from AR4  RCP 6 is most similar to A1B  RCP 8.5 is higher than anything AR4
  15. 15. Climate Change - Base Suite  NoCC – Historical climate  Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 • IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL  Climate Change Baseline – with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2
  16. 16. Change in Cereal Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  17. 17. Change in Wheat Yield under Baseline, 2010, 2050: Climate Change Effects on Top 10 Wheat Producers
  18. 18. Change in Pulse Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  19. 19. Change in Fruits and Vegetables Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  20. 20. Change in Roots and Tubers Yield between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  21. 21. Change in Cereal Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  22. 22. Change in Pulse Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  23. 23. Change in Roots and Tubers Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  24. 24. Change in Fruits and Vegetables Prices between 2010 and 2050 under Baseline
  25. 25. New Look at Livestock Scenarios Under Climate Change
  26. 26. Sustainability of the Livestock Revolution  Impact of climate change • Reduced crop yield, higher feed prices  Slow down of production growth • Production growth started to decelerate in the last decade  Environmental concerns with livestock development • GHG emission • Pollution of surface and groundwater • Soil compaction, erosion and loss of fertility • Additional new land for feed-grain production
  27. 27. IMPACT Model and Baseline Projections to 2050 Acronyms, Abbreviations and Definitions EAP - East Asia and Pacific EECA - Eastern Europe and Central Asia LAC - Latin America and the Caribbean MENA - Middle East and North Africa NAM - North America OCE - Oceania SAS - South Asia SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa WEU - Western Europe Mutton - sheep meat Chevon - goat meat Baseline: with climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2
  28. 28. BASELINE PROJECTIONS: Production, Consumption, World Prices, Trade
  29. 29. Total Meat Production: Historical trends and baseline projections, by commodity, region, 1980- 2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 millionmt Developed Countries – Meat Production Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 millionmt Developing Countries – Meat Production Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon
  30. 30. Total Meat and Milk Products Demand: Historical trends and baseline projections by region, 1980-2010 and 2010- 2050 with climate change 0 100 200 300 400 500 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 millionmt Demand for Meat Developed Developing 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 millionmt Demand for Milk Developed Developing 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 millionmt WEU SSA SAS OCE NAM MENA LAC EECA EAP 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 millionmt WEU SSA SAS OCE NAM MENA LAC EECA EAP
  31. 31. Per Capita Consumption/Demand of Meat and Milk: Historical trends and baseline projections, by region, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 with climate change 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU Kg/capita/year Meat Consumption/Demand 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 EAP EECA LAC MENA NAM OCE SAS SSA WEU Kg/capita/year Milk Consumption/Demand 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
  32. 32. World Prices of Meat and Milk Products: Baseline projections, 2015-2050 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 $/mt World Prices: $/mt Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon Milk 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PriceIndex World Prices: Relative to 2010 Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon Milk
  33. 33. Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Historical trends and baseline projections in developing countries, 1980- 2010 and 2010-2050 with climate change -0.11 -6.56 0.33 -7.43 -1.52 -9.55 -5.02 -21.87 -17.59 -30.76 -24.25 -9.38 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Meat Milk millionmt Developing Countries – Net Trade 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050 0.47 0.03 -0.43 -0.19 0.41 0.23 -0.22 -0.09 0.21 -0.55 -0.93 -0.25 0.18 -3.35 -1.16 -0.70-0.46 -9.97 -5.64 -1.52 1.32 -14.15 -9.39 -2.03 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon millionmt 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030 2050
  34. 34. Alternative Scenarios for Livestock Production, Consumption, Price, Trade
  35. 35. Alternative Livestock Development Policies  Intensive Growth in all countries (Int-All) • Technological improvement across all livestock producing countries • Increased investment in agricultural R&D. • Productivity increase equivalent to 10% in 2050 over the Baseline in all countries.  Intensive Growth in developing countries only (Int-Dvg) • Technological improvement through agricultural R&D and • Increased extension of existing modern production technologies • Closing the yield gap between developed and developing countries. • Productivity increase equivalent to 20% in 2050 over the Baseline in developing countries only.
  36. 36. Alternative Livestock Development Policies  Expansive Growth in all countries (Exp-All) • Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy. • Combines yield improvement (intensive) and increases in stocks/production units (extensive) • Productivity increase equivalent to 10% and additional 10% increase in the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline in all livestock producing countries.  Expansive Growth in developing countries only (Exp-Dvg) • Intensive and extensive livestock development strategy focused on developing countries only • Additional yield-gap extension strategy
  37. 37. Alternative Livestock Development Policies  Expansive Growth in developing countries only (Exp-Dvg)…continued • Higher stocks and livestock production units to localize production in relatively increasing demand areas • Productivity increase equivalent to 20% and additional 20% increase in the number of animals/stock in 2050 over the Baseline, in developing countries only  Baseline – business-as-usual • Historical trends in socio-economic parameters, level of investment in research and technology development, population and GDP growth – are to continue • No external intervention and exogenous shocks
  38. 38. Meat and Milk Production: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario, % deviation from baseline, 2050 4.7 4.2 3.4 3 9.9 8.9 7 6.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 World - Meat World - Milk %fromBaseline Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all -8 11 2.8 3.7 -15.9 22.9 5.8 7.7 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Developed - Meat Developing - Meat %fromBaseline Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all -8.5 10.5 2.7 3.2 -16.7 21.6 5.6 6.5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Developed -Milk Developing - Milk %fromBaseline Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all
  39. 39. -18.1 -14.2 -16.9 -23.8 -11 -12.7 -12.4 -13.1 -15.3 -8.4 -33.6 -27.5 -31.9 -42.4 -21.4 -23.8 -23.4 -24.6 -28.3 -16.2 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Beef Pork Poultry Mutton/Chevon Milk %fromBaseline Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all World Prices of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario, % deviation from baseline, 2050
  40. 40. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2010 - Beef 2050 - Beef 2010 - Pork 2050 - Pork 2010 - Poultry 2050 - Poultry 2010 - Mutton 2050 - Mutton millionmt Int-dvg Int-all Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline Net Trade of Meat Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario in developing countries, 2010 and 2050
  41. 41. -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 - Meat 2050 - Meat 2010 - Milk 2050 - Milk millionmt Int-dvg Int-all-dvg Exp-dvg Exp-all Baseline Net Trade of Meat and Milk Products: Comparative projections by livestock development scenario in developing countries, 2010 and 2050
  42. 42. Conclusions
  43. 43.  Climate change impacts on yields vary significantly by crop and by region  Yield impacts in 2050 tend to be smaller than increases due to underlying improvements in productivity  Even small yield losses can have significant price impacts, with important implications for food security  Research in progress shows that improvements in traits such as drought tolerance and heat tolerance can help offset expected losses due to climate change  Investment in agricultural research for technology and productivity improvement is essential Conclusions and Policy Implications
  44. 44.  Need for further work on impacts under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios  IFPRI is collaborating with other leading global economic modeling teams through the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Conclusions and Policy Implications
  45. 45. Conclusions and Policy Implications  Rapid growth in livestock demand in developing countries continues  Demand is better met through expansionary policies focused on developing countries—but trade-offs need to be reduced  Investment in livestock research for technology and productivity improvement needs to be increased  Growth and development of the livestock sector has positive impacts on food production, trade and food security  New IMPACT livestock module will further address impact of rapid growth on pastures and grasslands

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