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The Australian Government’s
Overseas Aid Program
© Commonwealth of Australia 2003
My Thuan Bridge
Impact Monitoring Study
My Thuan Cable-stayed Bridge
Capital cost A$90 m
(US$60
m)
Overall length 1,560 m
Main bridge length 600 m
Length of main span 350 m
Width of deck 24 m
Navigation clearance 37.5 m
Height of towers 120 m
Depth of river at the
towers
26 m
APPROACH AND
METHODOLOGY
The Selection of Methods
 Planning of Monitoring Activities:
 Criteria: economic, traffic, social, environment,
bridge management.
 Baseline data:
1) Socio-economic profile for provinces (1993).
2) Traffic at My Thuan from Feasibility Study.
3) Socio-economic data for bridge communes
4) Water quality testing during feasibility and
project construction.
5) Bridge inspection and Maintenance manual.
 Define the contents of January 2001, July 2001,
January 2002, July 2002, January 2003 and Final (July
2003) reports.
 A comprehensive methods/techniques for time series
and cross section data collection:
- Statistical data from GSO and Mekong delta
provincial statistical office.
- Delphi survey:
+ key informants (local authorities, managers of
industrial zones, head of communes/villages, head of
local association etc), Road Authority VII, Bridge and
Road Maintenance Company 715, Manager of various
ferries station in the Mekong delta etc.
+ Focus groups interviews: people who
are primarily dependent on the MT ferry,
former ferry employees, other people
who gained a livelihood from the ferry.
- Household questionnaire design.
- Count & observe: change of shops along
access roads to the MT bridge and
between HCMC and MT bridge, number
of vehicles using the bridge (Original –
Destination traffic surveys), number of
advertisement boards around the bridge
etc.
- Comparison technique: before/after project
Data analysis and writing up:
- Set up the tables, figures, graphs, boxes and
other annexes necessary.
- Using advanced excel and/or econometric
techniques for data analysis (e.g. analysis of
O-D traffic survey, using various data drawn
from survey/questionnaire to present in the
tables/graphs.
- Discussion/workshops/comments (during the
writing up of the reports.
STUDY
FINDINGS
Average daily traffic in 2002
Vehicles 20,100
People 87,000
Freight (t) 13,100
Agric. 5,400
Indus. 7,700
Car,
1,300
Motor-
cycle,
10,600
Van &
bus,
4,500
Truck
(10t+),
700
Truck
(<10t),
3,000
Origin/Destination of travel
Tien Giang
Hau Giang
64%
36%
Tien Giang
Hau Giang
27%
73%
Tien Giang
Hau Giang
33%
67%
Tien Giang
Hau Giang
25%
75%
Agricultural
goods
Motorcycle
passengers
Car, van & bus
passengers
Industrial
goods
Growth in traffic crossing the
Tien Giang at My Thuan
Daily movement Growth (% pa)
1994
(ferry)
1999
(ferry)
2002
(bridge)
1994-
1999
1999-
2002
Vehicles
Motorcycle 1,660 3,700 10,600 17% 42%
Car, van & bus 1,440 3,000 5,800 16% 25%
Trucks 880 2,300 3,700 19% 20%
Total vehicles 3,980 9,000 20,100 18% 31%
People 22,600 na 87,000 18%
Freight (t) 4,100 na 13,100 16%
My Thuan
Bridge
12%
Average annual growth in freight
movement (1994-2002)
17%
16%
18%
Hau Giang
Tien Giang
Directional growth in freight
Forecast vs actual traffic
Daily traffic over My Thuan Bridge
(2002)
Feasibility
Study f’cast
Actual Differ-
ence
Vehicles
Motorcycle 4,600 10,600 132%
Car, van & bus 4,300 5,800 35%
Trucks 2,500 3,700 49%
Total vehicles 11,400 20,100 77%
People
Motorcycle
Car, van & bus
Total people
7,800 18,500 137%
56,900 68,300 20%
64,700 86,800 34%
Freight (t) 11,600 13,100 13%
Benefits to travellers
Type Average benefit Beneficiaries
(number in 2002)
Reduced and more
reliable travel, and less
pollution
26 minute saving per
crossing in 1994; more
by 2002
32 million person
crossings
Reduced vehicle
operating costs
A$1.00/passenger
vehicle/crossing and
A$2.50/truck/crossing
7 million vehicles
Reduced damage to
goods
A$1.50/truck/crossing 5 million tonnes of
freight in 1.3 million
trucks
Economic development
 The Delta is industrial-
ising, but agriculture is still
important
 GPP/capita has risen
faster in the Delta than in
HCMC
 GPP/capita in the Delta is
still well below that in
HCMC
 Economic growth in the
Delta has been similar to
that used in the Feasibility
Study
Share of GPP
(%)
GPP/-cap
(VND m
const.)
Agric. Other
HCMC
1993 5 95 8.0
2002 2 98 18.1
Mekong Delta
1993 61 39 2.0
2002 51 49 5.6
Development of industrial zones
 20% of economic activity in Delta
is from industry (46% in HCMC)
 6 industrial zones are proposed
for Dong Thap and Vinh Long
provinces
 Sa Dec zone
 Commenced in 1999
 Good progress
 My Thuan Bridge (15 km away)
viewed as being important
Development of Sa Dec IZ
Proposals July 0I Feb. 03
Investigation 10 14
Construction - 6
Total 10 20
Environment
Before After
Air
pollution
High (excessive) level
of pollution at ferry
landings from vehicle
queuing.
Low emissions at bridge.
Some increase from traffic
growth.
Water
pollution
High level of pollution from
vehicle & human activity by
the river,
and from the ferry.
Water runoff much less
polluted.
Noise High level of noise at ferry
landings.
Noise now reduced and
more distant from most
people.
Social impacts and transition
 Former ferry employees redeployed (to bridge and other ferries)
 New markets constructed at Hoa Hung & Tan Hoi to provide alternative
employment opportunities for vendors
 Vendors relocating to the new markets faced a difficult first 6 months, but
conditions improved as the new markets became established – shops on
road approaches increased from 160→540
 Elimination of delays at ferry landings has reduced loitering, improved
personal security and reduced opportunity for spread of sexually
transmitted diseases
 Better access to
social services
because of ease of
crossing the river and
lower costs
Lessons
 Support should be provided for the development of
systems for inspection and maintenance of infrastructure
and management of incidents.
 Programs to monitor the performance of projects should
be designed and initiated ahead of project completion to
ensure the availability of up-to-date baseline data.
 Actions to address the needs of those adversely affected
by replacement of the former ferries need to be an
integral part of such projects.
 Detailed consideration should be given to
complementary projects that are needed to ensure
consistent network capacity.
 Tolls set on a more explicit basis to ensure financial
sustainability.
Conclusion
 Bridge built within budget and completed ahead of schedule
 Considerable technology transfer to Vietnamese partners
 Forecast demand has been substantially exceeded, especially
motorcycles and person movement
 Considerable benefits from the bridge
 Greater-than-expected benefit due to higher traffic
 Development along access roads and economic growth
 Satisfactory transition for people affected
 Former ferry employees redeployed
 More difficult transition for vendors, but new markets now better
established
 Positive environmental and social outcomes
 Reduced noise and emissions
 Improved access to local services
 Delays eliminated, resulting in less loitering and improved personal
security

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Paul_Kelly.ppt

  • 1. The Australian Government’s Overseas Aid Program © Commonwealth of Australia 2003 My Thuan Bridge Impact Monitoring Study
  • 2. My Thuan Cable-stayed Bridge Capital cost A$90 m (US$60 m) Overall length 1,560 m Main bridge length 600 m Length of main span 350 m Width of deck 24 m Navigation clearance 37.5 m Height of towers 120 m Depth of river at the towers 26 m
  • 4. The Selection of Methods  Planning of Monitoring Activities:  Criteria: economic, traffic, social, environment, bridge management.  Baseline data: 1) Socio-economic profile for provinces (1993). 2) Traffic at My Thuan from Feasibility Study. 3) Socio-economic data for bridge communes 4) Water quality testing during feasibility and project construction. 5) Bridge inspection and Maintenance manual.
  • 5.  Define the contents of January 2001, July 2001, January 2002, July 2002, January 2003 and Final (July 2003) reports.  A comprehensive methods/techniques for time series and cross section data collection: - Statistical data from GSO and Mekong delta provincial statistical office. - Delphi survey: + key informants (local authorities, managers of industrial zones, head of communes/villages, head of local association etc), Road Authority VII, Bridge and Road Maintenance Company 715, Manager of various ferries station in the Mekong delta etc.
  • 6. + Focus groups interviews: people who are primarily dependent on the MT ferry, former ferry employees, other people who gained a livelihood from the ferry. - Household questionnaire design. - Count & observe: change of shops along access roads to the MT bridge and between HCMC and MT bridge, number of vehicles using the bridge (Original – Destination traffic surveys), number of advertisement boards around the bridge etc.
  • 7. - Comparison technique: before/after project Data analysis and writing up: - Set up the tables, figures, graphs, boxes and other annexes necessary. - Using advanced excel and/or econometric techniques for data analysis (e.g. analysis of O-D traffic survey, using various data drawn from survey/questionnaire to present in the tables/graphs. - Discussion/workshops/comments (during the writing up of the reports.
  • 9. Average daily traffic in 2002 Vehicles 20,100 People 87,000 Freight (t) 13,100 Agric. 5,400 Indus. 7,700 Car, 1,300 Motor- cycle, 10,600 Van & bus, 4,500 Truck (10t+), 700 Truck (<10t), 3,000
  • 10. Origin/Destination of travel Tien Giang Hau Giang 64% 36% Tien Giang Hau Giang 27% 73% Tien Giang Hau Giang 33% 67% Tien Giang Hau Giang 25% 75% Agricultural goods Motorcycle passengers Car, van & bus passengers Industrial goods
  • 11. Growth in traffic crossing the Tien Giang at My Thuan Daily movement Growth (% pa) 1994 (ferry) 1999 (ferry) 2002 (bridge) 1994- 1999 1999- 2002 Vehicles Motorcycle 1,660 3,700 10,600 17% 42% Car, van & bus 1,440 3,000 5,800 16% 25% Trucks 880 2,300 3,700 19% 20% Total vehicles 3,980 9,000 20,100 18% 31% People 22,600 na 87,000 18% Freight (t) 4,100 na 13,100 16%
  • 12. My Thuan Bridge 12% Average annual growth in freight movement (1994-2002) 17% 16% 18% Hau Giang Tien Giang Directional growth in freight
  • 13. Forecast vs actual traffic Daily traffic over My Thuan Bridge (2002) Feasibility Study f’cast Actual Differ- ence Vehicles Motorcycle 4,600 10,600 132% Car, van & bus 4,300 5,800 35% Trucks 2,500 3,700 49% Total vehicles 11,400 20,100 77% People Motorcycle Car, van & bus Total people 7,800 18,500 137% 56,900 68,300 20% 64,700 86,800 34% Freight (t) 11,600 13,100 13%
  • 14. Benefits to travellers Type Average benefit Beneficiaries (number in 2002) Reduced and more reliable travel, and less pollution 26 minute saving per crossing in 1994; more by 2002 32 million person crossings Reduced vehicle operating costs A$1.00/passenger vehicle/crossing and A$2.50/truck/crossing 7 million vehicles Reduced damage to goods A$1.50/truck/crossing 5 million tonnes of freight in 1.3 million trucks
  • 15. Economic development  The Delta is industrial- ising, but agriculture is still important  GPP/capita has risen faster in the Delta than in HCMC  GPP/capita in the Delta is still well below that in HCMC  Economic growth in the Delta has been similar to that used in the Feasibility Study Share of GPP (%) GPP/-cap (VND m const.) Agric. Other HCMC 1993 5 95 8.0 2002 2 98 18.1 Mekong Delta 1993 61 39 2.0 2002 51 49 5.6
  • 16. Development of industrial zones  20% of economic activity in Delta is from industry (46% in HCMC)  6 industrial zones are proposed for Dong Thap and Vinh Long provinces  Sa Dec zone  Commenced in 1999  Good progress  My Thuan Bridge (15 km away) viewed as being important Development of Sa Dec IZ Proposals July 0I Feb. 03 Investigation 10 14 Construction - 6 Total 10 20
  • 17. Environment Before After Air pollution High (excessive) level of pollution at ferry landings from vehicle queuing. Low emissions at bridge. Some increase from traffic growth. Water pollution High level of pollution from vehicle & human activity by the river, and from the ferry. Water runoff much less polluted. Noise High level of noise at ferry landings. Noise now reduced and more distant from most people.
  • 18. Social impacts and transition  Former ferry employees redeployed (to bridge and other ferries)  New markets constructed at Hoa Hung & Tan Hoi to provide alternative employment opportunities for vendors  Vendors relocating to the new markets faced a difficult first 6 months, but conditions improved as the new markets became established – shops on road approaches increased from 160→540  Elimination of delays at ferry landings has reduced loitering, improved personal security and reduced opportunity for spread of sexually transmitted diseases  Better access to social services because of ease of crossing the river and lower costs
  • 19. Lessons  Support should be provided for the development of systems for inspection and maintenance of infrastructure and management of incidents.  Programs to monitor the performance of projects should be designed and initiated ahead of project completion to ensure the availability of up-to-date baseline data.  Actions to address the needs of those adversely affected by replacement of the former ferries need to be an integral part of such projects.  Detailed consideration should be given to complementary projects that are needed to ensure consistent network capacity.  Tolls set on a more explicit basis to ensure financial sustainability.
  • 20. Conclusion  Bridge built within budget and completed ahead of schedule  Considerable technology transfer to Vietnamese partners  Forecast demand has been substantially exceeded, especially motorcycles and person movement  Considerable benefits from the bridge  Greater-than-expected benefit due to higher traffic  Development along access roads and economic growth  Satisfactory transition for people affected  Former ferry employees redeployed  More difficult transition for vendors, but new markets now better established  Positive environmental and social outcomes  Reduced noise and emissions  Improved access to local services  Delays eliminated, resulting in less loitering and improved personal security