2. Robotics, Automation & AI and the China relation
Henrik I Christensen, Ph.D, Dr. Techn.
Director, Contextual Robotics Institute
Univ of California, San Diego
hichristensen@ucsd.edu
3. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Mass Manufacturing to Mass Customization
5. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Worldwide growth
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
#RobotsShipped
Year
Total number of Shipped Robots
6. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Key 2017 indicators
• 2017 was the best year thus far
• 19% CAGR over 2010-17
• 50%+ of robots sold in Asia
• 37% growth for Asia in 2016-17
• 70% of all robots sold in China, Japan, USA, South Korea and
Germany
• 36% of all robots are sold in China
7. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Worldwide growth
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
#Unitsshipped
America Asia Europe
8. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Application areas
Automotive
42%
Electronics
21%
Metal
10%
Materials/Chemi
cal
8%
Food
4%
Others
4%
Unspec.
11%
9. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
New robots – Co-X
• Robot systems that empower people
• Co-workers
• 90% of all US manufacturing
are small and medium sized
• They represent 60% of export
• Needs
• Small series manufacturing
• Easy programming
• Flexible interaction with factory workers
10. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Collaborative robot - Safe!
• New generation of robots
• Safe for operation in human vicinity
• ISO 10218.6
11. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Manufacturing 2025
• A blue print to transform China into the leader of advanced
manufacturing by 2025
• Strategic priorities
• Next generation IT
• Advanced machining and robotics
• Bio-Tech Manufacturing
• Aerospace
• New Energy Vehicles
• New Materials
12. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Robot sales in China
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
13. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Robot sales in China
• 138,000 robots sold in 2017
• 60% growth over 2016
• 75% of robots made by foreign companies
• ABB, Fanuc, KUKA, Yaskawa, UR
• 49% growth compared to 2016
• ~25% made by Chinese companies
• 78% growth over 2015 Some Chinese companies are
emerging
• ~20 industrial robotics companies (Siasun, GSK, Estun)
• ~40 integrators
14. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Chinese
market
share
FANUC
18%
ABB
17%
KUKA
15%
Yaskawa
13%
Kawasaki
6%
Daihen
5%
Nachi
4%
Other Foreign
11%
Siasun
2%
Efort
2%
GSK
1%
Estun
1%
Other Chinese
5%
15. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
How mature are markets?
• Typical measure of maturity is the number of robots
deployed per 10,000 workers in manufacturing
• Very mature markets will be 1/10, and nascent markets will
be much lower
• Automotive is generally the most widely adopted
application
• 44% of all robots sold are used for auto manufacturing
16. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
How mature are markets?
World average is 98
(/ 10,000 workers in manufacturing)
0
87.5
175
262.5
350
437.5
525
612.5
700
S.Korea
Singapore
Germany
Japan
Sweden
Denmark
USA
Italy
Belgium
Taiwan
Spain
Netherlands
Canada
Austria
Finland
Slovakia
Slovenia
France
Switzerland
CzechRep
Australia
UK
China
Portugal
Hungary
NewZealand
Thailand
Norway
Malaysia
Poland
Mexico
S.Africa
Greece
Brazil
Indonesia
Russia
India
17. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Summary
•Manufacturing robotics is seeing strong growth
•Asia / China is the big growth area
•30% of all cars are made in China
•Cobots enables robot use by small and medium sized
companies - an entirely new domain
•We continue to see 22%+ CAGR for industrial robotics
•Cobots are seeing 40%+ CAGR annual growth
•2018 numbers are so far very promising
18. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Speed and scale… yesterday
Supply side economics of scale
• Costs decline with higher
volume of output
• Strong competitive
advantages to building
larger and larger production
facilities
Implications for firmsExamples
19. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Speed and scale … today
• Value grows with growth of
networks
• Strong competitive advantages
to building out network
ecosystem as quickly as
possible
Demand-side economies of scale
Examples Implications for firms
20. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
New Rules for strategy
Ecosystem value
External interaction
Resource orchestrationFocus on resource control
Focus on internal optimization
Focus on product value
Platform strategyConventional corporate strategy
Source: Marshall W. Van Alstyne, Geoffrey G. Parker and Sangeet Paul Choudary, “Pipelines, Platforms, and the
New Rules of Strategy, Harvard Business Review, April 2016.
Rise of platforms requires a shift in corporate strategy
21. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Platform companies world-wide
176 Companies – Market cap $4.3 trillion*
Source: P. Evans, Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterprise,
2016
17
*Platform companies with a market value of US$1 billion or more on December 1, 2015
22. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Platform companies by type and region
176 Companies – Market cap $4.3 trillion
N. America Asia Europe
Africa &
L. America
19
Source: Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterprise, 2015
*Platform companies with a market value of US$1 billion or more on December 1, 2015
