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Henrik Christensen - ROBO Global Strategic Presentation
- 1. 11/27/18 Henrik Christensen, PhD Confidential – internal document & not to be shared externally
- 2. Robotics, Automation & AI and the China relation Henrik I Christensen, Ph.D, Dr. Techn. Director, Contextual Robotics Institute Univ of California, San Diego hichristensen@ucsd.edu
- 3. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Mass Manufacturing to Mass Customization
- 5. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Worldwide growth 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 #RobotsShipped Year Total number of Shipped Robots
- 6. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Key 2017 indicators • 2017 was the best year thus far • 19% CAGR over 2010-17 • 50%+ of robots sold in Asia • 37% growth for Asia in 2016-17 • 70% of all robots sold in China, Japan, USA, South Korea and Germany • 36% of all robots are sold in China
- 7. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Worldwide growth 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 #Unitsshipped America Asia Europe
- 8. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Application areas Automotive 42% Electronics 21% Metal 10% Materials/Chemi cal 8% Food 4% Others 4% Unspec. 11%
- 9. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES New robots – Co-X • Robot systems that empower people • Co-workers • 90% of all US manufacturing are small and medium sized • They represent 60% of export • Needs • Small series manufacturing • Easy programming • Flexible interaction with factory workers
- 10. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Collaborative robot - Safe! • New generation of robots • Safe for operation in human vicinity • ISO 10218.6
- 11. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Manufacturing 2025 • A blue print to transform China into the leader of advanced manufacturing by 2025 • Strategic priorities • Next generation IT • Advanced machining and robotics • Bio-Tech Manufacturing • Aerospace • New Energy Vehicles • New Materials
- 12. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Robot sales in China 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 13. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Robot sales in China • 138,000 robots sold in 2017 • 60% growth over 2016 • 75% of robots made by foreign companies • ABB, Fanuc, KUKA, Yaskawa, UR • 49% growth compared to 2016 • ~25% made by Chinese companies • 78% growth over 2015 Some Chinese companies are emerging • ~20 industrial robotics companies (Siasun, GSK, Estun) • ~40 integrators
- 14. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Chinese market share FANUC 18% ABB 17% KUKA 15% Yaskawa 13% Kawasaki 6% Daihen 5% Nachi 4% Other Foreign 11% Siasun 2% Efort 2% GSK 1% Estun 1% Other Chinese 5%
- 15. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES How mature are markets? • Typical measure of maturity is the number of robots deployed per 10,000 workers in manufacturing • Very mature markets will be 1/10, and nascent markets will be much lower • Automotive is generally the most widely adopted application • 44% of all robots sold are used for auto manufacturing
- 16. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES How mature are markets? World average is 98 (/ 10,000 workers in manufacturing) 0 87.5 175 262.5 350 437.5 525 612.5 700 S.Korea Singapore Germany Japan Sweden Denmark USA Italy Belgium Taiwan Spain Netherlands Canada Austria Finland Slovakia Slovenia France Switzerland CzechRep Australia UK China Portugal Hungary NewZealand Thailand Norway Malaysia Poland Mexico S.Africa Greece Brazil Indonesia Russia India
- 17. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Summary •Manufacturing robotics is seeing strong growth •Asia / China is the big growth area •30% of all cars are made in China •Cobots enables robot use by small and medium sized companies - an entirely new domain •We continue to see 22%+ CAGR for industrial robotics •Cobots are seeing 40%+ CAGR annual growth •2018 numbers are so far very promising
- 18. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Speed and scale… yesterday Supply side economics of scale • Costs decline with higher volume of output • Strong competitive advantages to building larger and larger production facilities Implications for firmsExamples
- 19. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Speed and scale … today • Value grows with growth of networks • Strong competitive advantages to building out network ecosystem as quickly as possible Demand-side economies of scale Examples Implications for firms
- 20. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES New Rules for strategy Ecosystem value External interaction Resource orchestrationFocus on resource control Focus on internal optimization Focus on product value Platform strategyConventional corporate strategy Source: Marshall W. Van Alstyne, Geoffrey G. Parker and Sangeet Paul Choudary, “Pipelines, Platforms, and the New Rules of Strategy, Harvard Business Review, April 2016. Rise of platforms requires a shift in corporate strategy
- 21. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Platform companies world-wide 176 Companies – Market cap $4.3 trillion* Source: P. Evans, Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterprise, 2016 17 *Platform companies with a market value of US$1 billion or more on December 1, 2015
- 22. JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING DIVISION OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Platform companies by type and region 176 Companies – Market cap $4.3 trillion N. America Asia Europe Africa & L. America 19 Source: Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterprise, 2015 *Platform companies with a market value of US$1 billion or more on December 1, 2015