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Epic research daily agri report 27 july 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
27 July 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
AUG 7000 7038 6822 6860 -2.06 11070
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
6775
SUPP. 2
6691
PIVOT
6907
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6991
RES. 2
7123
CORIANDER
AUG 11988 12020 11867 11968 +0.03 14860
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11883
SUPP. 2
11799
PIVOT
11952
Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12036
RES. 2
12105
GUARGUM
OCT 8610 8680 8350 8650 0.00 11495
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8440
SUPP. 2
8230
PIVOT
8560
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8770
RES. 2
8890
CASTORSEED
AUG 3921 3955 3886 3944 +0.33 79520
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3859
SUPP. 2
3902
PIVOT
3928
Castorseed short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3971
RES. 2
3997
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3935 3531 +0.1
CHANA 4645 4592 +1.15
CORIANDER 11975 11962 +0.11
GUARGUM 8620 8650 -0.35
JEERA 15635 15660 -0.16
MUSTARD
SEED
4150 4130 +0.48
SOYABEAN 3310 3286 +0.73
TURMERIC 6832 7004 -2.46
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-08-2015 6832.00 -152.00 -2.18%
BARLEY 20-08-2015 1164.00 -8.00 -0.68%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-08-2015 1968.00 76.00 4.02%
CHANA 20-08-2015 4644.00 52.00 1.13%
SOYABEAN 20-08-2015 3306.00 24.00 0.73%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-08-2015 4150.00 29.00 0.70%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-08-2015 573.80 2.40 0.42%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-08-2015 3940.00 14.00 0.36%
CORIANDER 20-08-2015 11980.00 10.00 0.08%
JEERA 20-08-2015 15605.00 5.00 0.03%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Wholesale onion price at Lasalgoan in Maharashtra, Asia's biggest
market for this kitchen staple, has shot up by 70 per cent in just about a
month, hitting its highest level for the month of July in the past two
decades.Prices in July usually tend to be higher because the supply goes
down and the onset of monsoon season also affects the onion quality.The
onion was being sold at Rs 25.50 per kg in Lasalgoan market today, while
the retail prices are in the range of Rs 35-40 per kg here in the national
capital. Lasalgoan accounts for a bulk of the supply in various parts of the
country, including Delhi region.The prices have shot up by 70 per cent
since June 27 when the government increased the minimum export price
(MEP) for the commodity. Spiralling prices could further fuel the food
inflation in the coming weeks.As per the data maintained by the Nasik-
based National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation
(NHRDF), the average price at Lasalgaon stood at Rs 15 per kg last
month.A sharp increase is being seen in the retail markets in most parts of
the country.The prices in both wholesale and retail markets have been
rising in recent weeks due to sluggish supply of good quality onion in the
wake of the crop getting damaged in storage across major growing states,
including Maharashtra.Apprehending further increase in onion prices, the
government has already increased MEP of the commodity to USD 425 per
tonne and and extended by another year the ban on hoarding of the key
kitchen staple beyond a prescribed limit.The Centre is also planning to
import onion, though in limited quantity, to boost the domestic
availability.Much of the Rabi (winter) onion crop is stored to meet the
demand in lean period. But this year, most of the onion kept in storage is of
poor quality as the Rabi crop got damaged due to unseasonal rains in early
March.According to agri experts, high storage losses have reduced
availability of onion in the market and put pressure on prices and this
situation will continue till the arrival of new kharif crop from mid-
September. To check prices, the government had imported a small quantity
of onion last year too.It had also eased fumigation norms for smooth
shipment of onions.
Turmeric settled down due to favourable rainfall in major turmeric
growing states along with limited export demand in local mandies. As
per the market sources, favourable rainfall in major turmeric growing
states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka from last couple of days will
encourage turmeric sowing for the new season.Traders already stated
that better price realization in the current year will promote turmeric
crop across all the major producing states. The sources added that not
much export enquiries have been reported in turmeric market after
Ramadan. Tamilnadu is witnessing some shortfall in the rains and
traders are not likely to be in a hurry of offload their stocks. However,
excess rains during the vegetative and harvesting may adversely affect
the production and quality. Turmeric sowing area reported high in
Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu state during the current sowing period.As
per Spice board of India, the export for the 2014-15 is 86,000 tonnes
worth Rs 744.35. At Warangal market total arrivals are at 250 bags,
higher by 50 bags as against previous day.
Jeera settled down due to surge in supply from producing regions in
the midst of decline in the export demand. The market participants have
meanwhile off load the buying position at current levels. There is
expectation of revival of export demand on short supply but quality
issues may not be positive for prices. Meanwhile, there are reports that,
cumin crop in China damaged due to heavy rains.Still the quality issues
and supply concerns from the production states keep the prices volatile.
As per third advance estimate of Gujarat State, production is expected
at 1.58 lakh tonnes in 2014-15, which is 54.3 per cent lower, compared
to last years’ production of 3.46 lakh tonnes. There is concern over
production due to untimely rainfall in March in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
As per Government data, 2.41 lakh hectare of cumin crop is damaged
in Rajasthan.According to latest spice board press release, cumin
export is stood at 155,500 tonnes for 2014-15 period and earned
foreign exchange worth Rs 1,838.20 crore while in 2013-14, the figures
stood at 121,500 tonnes valued at Rs 1,600 crore.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
India exported 54.6 thousand tons of sugar for the week ending 19th Jul,
2015 which was 9% lower than the sugar exported the previous week; while
the sugar import rose by 3.26% from 34.9 thousand tons to 36.1 thousand tons
during the same period.
Late monsoon arrival in Maharashtra had adversely affected sugarcane
sowing area in the region where only 644 lakh hectares of area has been sowed
so far out of 8861 lakh hectares of total area under cultivation.
The south Asian country is likely to produce 28 million tonnes in the
2015/16 year starting Oct. 1, compared with local demand of about 25 million
tonnes, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in a statement.In the current
season, the country is likely to produce 28.3 million tonnes sugar, it said.The
surplus production could depress local prices and increase losses of debt-
ridden sugar mills, prompting the country to maintain exports to trim rising
inventory.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit
of 2.50 MT in 2015-16 (OctSep) which could increase to 6.20 MT in
marketing year 2016-17 (Oct – Sep). Similarly, market participant, Datagro
forecasted a global (sugar) supply deficit of 1.40 MT in 2015-16 compared to
a surplus of 3.9 MT in marketing year 2014-15.
Indonesia had issued 596 thousand tons of raw sugar import license for
3Q15 which was much below than the market expectation of 630 thousand
tons of import license.
CENTER 24-July-15 23-July-15 Change
DELHI 2360 2350 +10
MUMBAI 2470 2470 UNCH
VIJAYWADA 2500 2540 -40
NAGPUR 2400 2400 UNCH
CHENNAI 2150 2150 UNCH
AMBIKAPUR 2835 2835 UNCH
DHAMPUR 2290 2290 UNCH
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER AUG ABOVE 12100 TARGET 12125 12165 SL
BELOW 12070
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 8680 TARGET 8730 8800 SL
BELOW 8620
SELL TURMERIC AUG BELOW 6820 TARGET 6780 6720 SL
ABOVE 6880
BUY CASTORSEED AUG ABOVE 3980 TARGET 4005 4035 SL
BELOW 3950
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