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Epic research daily agri report 31 july 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
31 July 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
AUG 6920 7180 6920 7162 +3.68 15050
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
6995
SUPP. 2
6827
PIVOT
7087
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7255
RES. 2
7347
CORIANDER
AUG 11340 11455 11270 11340 -0.20 20710
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
11255
SUPP. 2
11170
PIVOT
11355
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11440
RES. 2
11540
GUARGUM
OCT 8150 8550 8040 8510 +5.32 15583
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8183
SUPP. 2
7157
PIVOT
8367
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8693
RES. 2
8877
CASTORSEED
AUG 3954 3999 3917 3988 +1.50 57510
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
3937
SUPP. 2
3886
PIVOT
3968
Castorseed short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4019
RES. 2
4050
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3988 3929 +1.50
CHANA 4592 4608 -0.35
CORIANDER 11340 11363 -0.20
GUARGUM 8510 8080 +5.32
JEERA 15300 14950 +2.34
MUSTARD
SEED
4173 4152 +0.51
SOYABEAN 3388 3277 +0.34
TURMERIC 7162 6908 +3.68
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CHANA 20-08-2015 4602.00 -3.00 -0.07%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
TURMERIC 20-08-2015 7148.00 204.00 2.94%
JEERA 20-08-2015 15340.00 340.00 2.27%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-08-2015 3998.00 66.00 1.68%
BARLEY 20-08-2015 1158.50 13.50 1.18%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-08-2015 4175.00 29.00 0.70%
SOYABEAN 20-08-2015 3295.00 17.00 0.52%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-08-2015 573.55 2.45 0.43%
CORIANDER 20-08-2015 11348.00 17.00 0.15%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-08-2015 1966.00 1.00 0.05%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The government said it has released Rs 11,281 crore between April and
July to NABARD to pay interest subvention claims to banks for short-term
crop loans of up to Rs 3 lakh to farmers.The Budget 2015-16 had allocated
Rs 13,000 crore for implementation of the Interest Subvention Scheme for
short term crop loans up to Rs 3 lakh, said a statement by the Finance
Ministry."The government has already released Rs 11,281.16 crore during
the first four months of the current financial year, to RBI/NABARD, for
payment of interest subvention claims to banks towards implementation of
Interest Subvention Scheme of the government for short term crop loans to
farmers," it added.The Cabinet had last week extended the scheme to banks
to ensure availability of crop loans of up to Rs 3 lakh to farmers at 7 per
cent per annum.It gave approval to continuation of interest subvention to
public as well as private banks, regional rural banks, cooperative banks and
NABARD to enable them to provide short-term crop loans of up to Rs 3
lakh to farmers at 7 per cent per annum during 2015-16.For 2015-16, the
target of agriculture credit has been raised to Rs 8.50 lakh crore, from Rs 8
lakh crore in 2014-15.
While West Bengal may be able to meet its rice output target this year, it
may soon be faced with inflationary prices in the vegetable market if the
monsoon downpour continues in excess, experts say."As of now, in July
the rainfall is more than sufficient. If there is a delay of rains in early
August it can still be managed and paddy production won't be hit.
However, excessive rains are bad for vegetables," Pradip Mazumdar, the
advisor to the chief minister on the agricultural and allied sectors, told a
news service.In July, the Gangetic region of West Bengal - which produces
the bulk of paddy and a substantial amount of vegetables - has received an
average rainfall of 74 cm while the seasonal average for the period is 53 cm
on an average."There is an excess rainfall of 39 percent in the Gangetic
region while the sub-Himalayan region in the state has recorded a deficit of
15 percent," Devendra Pradhan, the deputy director general at IMD
Kolkata, told a news service.
Chana settled up driven by pickup in demand against declining
supplies at major trading stations. Besides, restricted arrivals from
producing regions also supported chana prices. Agriculture Ministry in
its Kharif sowing update has increased Kharif Pulses acreage jumped
by 50% to 7.26 million hectare from 4.82 million hectare, due to higher
prices in the market, the official said.According to the latest govt data,
country has imported about 4.19 lakh tonnes of chana in 2014-15,
which is more than 51.8 per cent higher than the quantity imported in
the entire previous year. Total import of chana in 2013-14 stood at 2.76
lakh tonnes. As per 3rd Advance Estimates for 2014-15, Chana
production is estimated at 7.59 million tonnes (mt) against 8.28 mt in
2nd estimate. Earlier Government has extended duty free imports of
pulses including chana till September 2015. As per latest Govt reports,
the area under Kharif Pulses has risen to 55.99 lakh ha as on 17th July
vs 23.92 lakh ha same period last year. Above normal rains in Central
and South India have improved sowing, keeping prices down for Chana
in June.As per latest estimate of Finance Ministry pulses import has
risen more than 20% in May. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by
33.6 rupee to end at 4650 rupee per 100 kgs.
Bargain buying was seen in sugar prices due to anticipation of weak
production in Maharashtra coupled with waning supply situation in
Thailand. The NCDEX futures increased by 1.27 percent yesterday.The
market sources suggested that spot prices of sugar have witnessed some
recovery due to possible decline in Maharashtra's sugar cane
production. The latest update from Indian Sugar Mills Association
(ISMA ) stated that the total sugar cane production in Maharashtra is
likely to decline by 7- 8 percent on the account of poor rainfall.Traders
stated that prices have also garnered bullish nodes from international
market. The overall sugar cane production in Thailand is likely to be
lower against previous year on the back of draught conditions in major
sugar cane growing regions.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
India exported 54.6 thousand tons of sugar for the week ending 19th Jul,
2015 which was 9% lower than the sugar exported the previous week; while
the sugar import rose by 3.26% from 34.9 thousand tons to 36.1 thousand tons
during the same period.
Late monsoon arrival in Maharashtra had adversely affected sugarcane
sowing area in the region where only 644 lakh hectares of area has been sowed
so far out of 8861 lakh hectares of total area under cultivation.
The south Asian country is likely to produce 28 million tonnes in the
2015/16 year starting Oct. 1, compared with local demand of about 25 million
tonnes, the Indian Sugar Mills Association said in a statement.In the current
season, the country is likely to produce 28.3 million tonnes sugar, it said.The
surplus production could depress local prices and increase losses of debt-
ridden sugar mills, prompting the country to maintain exports to trim rising
inventory.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit
of 2.50 MT in 2015-16 (OctSep) which could increase to 6.20 MT in
marketing year 2016-17 (Oct – Sep).
Indonesia had issued 596 thousand tons of raw sugar import license for
3Q15 which was much below than the market expectation of 630 thousand
tons of import license.
As per the latest UNICA report, Brazil’s Centre South region had churned
around 1.44 MT of sugar (from 29.3 MT of cane) in the first half of July, 2015
which was 43% lower than the sugar crushed in second half of June, 2015.
CENTER 30-July-15 29-July-15 Change
DELHI 2315 2325 -10
MUMBAI NA 2470 -
VIJAYWADA 2480 2480 UNCH
NAGPUR 2400 2400 UNCH
CHENNAI 2100 2100 UNCH
AMBIKAPUR 2835 2835 UNCH
DHAMPUR 2270 2270 UNCH
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER AUG BELOW 11270 TARGET 11245 11205 SL
ABOVE 11300
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 8360 TARGET 8310 8240 SL
ABOVE 8420
BUY TURMERIC AUG ABOVE 7180 TARGET 7220 7280 SL
BELOW 7120
BUY CASTORSEED AUG ABOVE 4000 TARGET 4025 4055 SL
BELOW 3970
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