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Epic research daily agri report 05 nov 2015
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
05 November 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
NOV 8818 9080 8818 8952 +2.24 16555
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8820
SUPP. 2
8688
PIVOT
8950
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9082
RES. 2
9212
CORIANDER
NOV 8853 9274 8853 9274 +3.99 5190
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
8993
SUPP. 2
8712
PIVOT
9134
Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9414
RES. 2
9555
GUARGUM
NOV 8060 8160 8000 8020 -0.25 6415
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7960
SUPP. 2
7900
PIVOT
8060
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8120
RES. 2
8220
CASTORSEED
NOV 4329 4344 4280 4301 -0.51 66250
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4273
SUPP. 2
4244
PIVOT
4308
Castorseed short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4337
RES. 2
4372
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4301 4323 -0.51
CHANA 5007 4948 +1.19
CORIANDER 9274 8918 +3.99
GUARGUM 8020 8040 -0.25
JEERA 15660 15450 +1.36
MUSTARD
SEED
4863 4943 -1.62
SOYABEAN 3940 3918 +0.56
TURMERIC 8952 8756 +2.24
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-11-2015 4863.00 -87.00 -1.76%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-11-2015 4301.00 -24.00 -0.55%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CORIANDER 20-11-2015 9274.00 373.00 4.19%
TURMERIC 20-11-2015 8952.00 176.00 2.01%
JEERA 20-11-2015 15660.00 210.00 1.36%
BARLEY 20-11-2015 1469.00 19.00 1.31%
CHANA 20-11-2015 5007.00 52.00 1.05%
SOYABEAN 20-11-2015 3940.00 10.00 0.25%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-11-2015 629.25 1.05 0.17%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
With an aim to check spiralling prices of pulses, the government has
moved a proposal for procurement and creating buffer stock of lentils,
Minister of State for Agriculture Sanjeev Balyan said.The Centre last
month announced that it will create a buffer stock of lentils which will be
offloaded in the market should prices firm up.Speaking on the sidelines of
42nd foundation day of Agricultural Scientists Recruitment Board, Balyan
said the government would procure pulses to check prices and has already
announced to create 40,000 tonne buffer stock of lentils this year."...a
proposal has also been moved that pulses should be completely purchased
by government. I hope it (proposal) will be approved and therefore in
future there will be no crisis of pulses in the country," Balyan said.The
minister also added that there is huge requirement of pulses in the country
and its production needs to be raised, therefore government should procure
lentils.The agriculture ministry has proposed that in the ongoing Kharif
marketing season, which started last month, FCI will procure one lakh
tonnes of tur and urad while Nafed and SFAC will buy 40,000 tonnes tur
and 10,000 tonnes urad.In the Rabi marketing season starting March next
year, Nafed will buy one lakh tonnes of pulses while FCI and SFAC will
procure 90,000 tonnes and 10,000 tonnes of these two lentils respectively.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said price of pulses should come down
following good harvest and action taken against hoarders.Jaitley said retail
inflation has come to down to about 4% from 12% during UPA regime and
the current spike in prices of pulses was because the state had not taken
action against hoarders."The rate of inflation has come down in last one-
and-a-half year. Prices of many commodities have come down. But there
are some products, whose arrival is less in the Indian market as well as
foreign markets," Jaitley said at an event in Delhi."The requirement of
pulses is 22 million tonne in India. We increased the production up to 17
million tonne but still we are short of 5 million tonne production.""Most of
the countries from where we used to import pulses have also recorded low
production. Some traders took benefit from it and hoarded the commodity.
Chana settled up as support seen after Maharashtra government has
decided to lift the storage limit it had imposed on imported pulses.
Prices also seen supported due to pick-up in demand in the spot market
against tight supplies from the major producing belts. However, pulses'
sales by various states at reasonable rates at designated outlets, capped
some gains. India's 2014-15 pulses output declined 11% to 17.20
million ton due to weak monsoon and adverse weather according to
fourth advance estimates released by agriculture ministry.The
Agriculture Ministry has sought inter-ministerial comments on a
proposal to create a buffer stock of 3.5 lakh tonnes of pulses in 2015-16
crop year.
Soyabean settled up due to lesser than expected arrivals from the new
season crop and on concern over production in Madhya Pradesh.
However, weak export demand for soymeals and better global weather
outlook, capped some gains. The Soybean Processors Association of
India said in its second advance estimates reported that India's total
soybean production in 2015 is estimated to fall by 16.09% due to
scanty monsoon.Total 2015 soybean production is estimated to be 7.3
million tons compared to 8.7 million tons a year ago, SOPA said.
Soybean yield in 2015 is estimated to fell by 16.18% to 667,000
kilograms per hectare compared to 790,000 kilograms per hectare in
previous year while sowing area as per government estimates stood at
5.9 million hectare compared to 5.5 million hectare a year ago.
Jeera settled up due to pickup in demand from the stockists and
traders at the spot market. Though, timely sowing on favorable weather
at the major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, capped some
gains. The jeera export from India may surge in coming months as
Jeera from Syria, Turkey may be lower, and now the preferred location
would be India.The ministry of agriculture forecast a lower output of
tur this kharif at 2.61 million tonnes in the first advance estimate,
issued in September as compared to 2.78 mt the previous year and 3.17
mt in 2013-14.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
India exported 44.5 thousand tons of sugar in the week ending on 01st Nov,
2015 while imported 158.1 thousand tons of sugar during the same interval.
State Cooperative Sugar Mills of Haryana are expected to crush 331 lakh
quintals of sugarcane in 2015- 16 (1st Oct, 2015 – 30th Sep, 2016) compared
to 320.02 lakh quintal crushed in 2014 -15 (1st Oct, 2014 – 30th Sep, 2015).
In a bid to resolve the issue of pending cane arrears, the Indian govt. is
planning to provide direct cash subsidy to the cane farmers in the country.
Brazil exported 2.07 MT of raw sugar in October, 2015 compared to 1.41
MT of sugar (raw in September, 2015. However, an y-o-y comparison shows
that the country’s sugar export has been declined by 1.7% this year compared
to the exports made last year in October, 2014.
Datagro predicted Brazil’s C.S region to produce 605.9 MT of sugarcane in
2015-16 against a total cane production of 657.9 MT throughout the country.
The agency also revisted its total sugar production estimate (Brazil) from 34.7
MT to 35 MT in 2015-16.
Datagro projected Brazil’s north east cane production to decline by 11.9%
from its previous estimate of 52 MT amidst below average rainfall in the
region.
As per the Indonesian Sugar Association, the country is expected to import
100,000 tons of white sugar in 2015 due to the negative El-Nino effect on their
cane crop.
CENTER 04-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 Change
DELHI 2845 2850 -5
MUMBAI 2882 2886 -4
VIJAYWADA 3060 3060 UNCH
NAGPUR 2900 2900 UNCH
CHENNAI 2775 2775 UNCH
AMBIKAPUR 2835 2835 UNCH
DHAMPUR 2670 2680 -10
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER NOV ABOVE 9350 TARGET 9385 9465 SL
BELOW 9305
BUY GUARGUM NOV ABOVE 8080 TARGET 8130 8200 SL
BELOW 8020
SELL TURMERIC NOV BELOW 8950 TARGET 8906 8846 SL
ABOVE 9010
SELL CASTORSEED NOV BELOW 4300 TARGET 4275 4245 SL
ABOVE 4325
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