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HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
IN 2018
Edmund Jessop
www.eurordis.org
2
DISCLAIMER
• Views and opinions expressed are personal and not necessarily
those of UK government, NHS England, Public Health England or
other agencies
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
3
HTA: two questions
•How well does it work?
(compared to what we do now)
•What does it cost?
(compared to what we do now)
4
Aim of session
• To understand basic concepts in health technology
assessment
• To know that assessment provides information not a
decision: committee judgement is still needed
• To understand common terms used in HTA reports:
§ Health states
§ Disease models
§ Discounting
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
5
ASSESSING COSTS
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
6
Cost types
•Direct costs / indirect costs
•Tangible costs / intangible costs
ODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
7
‘Perspective’
Societal Health
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
8
More cost types
•Incremental costs
•(Opportunity cost – discussed later)
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
9
Three concepts
•Cost
•Price
•(Value)
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
10
ASSESSING EFFECTS
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
11
EFFECTS
•Survival
•Quality of life
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
12
Assessing effects – longer life
•Treatment X cures a fatal disease of
childhood
•Extends life by 80 years
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
13
IMPROVED QUALITY OF LIFE
•Improves quality of life
‘I no longer need to use a
wheelchair’
‘I’m not in pain’
‘I can do more’
14
Measuring effects on quality of life
•How to MEASURE improvement in
quality of life?
•Standard method – describe health state
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
15
Assessing quality of life: the EQ5D
•Mobility
•Self Care – wash and dress
•‘Usual activities’
•Pain
•Anxious or depressed
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
16 TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
17
Improvement in health state
Health state before:
•Extreme pain
•Moderately
depressed
•Some problem with
usual activity
Health state after:
•No pain
•No depression
•Some problem with
usual activity
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
18
Health gain
•20 years in health state A (without
treatment)
•20 years in health state B (with
treatment)
•Gain = 20 x QA gain
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
19
Growth hormone (simplified)
•Extra height as adult: extra utility = 0.1
•Adult life span 50 years
5 QALY gain
•Cost = £100 000
•£20 000 per QALY – cost is justified
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
20
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
COST & EFFECT
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
21
ICER
•Incremental costs £100 000 more
•Incremental effects 5 QALY more
•Ratio £20 000 per QALY
•Incremental cost effectiveness ratio ICER
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
22
Incremental
•Incremental cost £10 000 more
•Incremental effect 5 QALY more
•More than what? – must specify comparator
§ usually what you’re doing now: ‘standard of care’
§ May differ from country to country
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
23
A note on ‘dominates’
•If the new treatment is better AND
cheaper it is said to ‘dominate’ the
comparator J
•… usually it’s better but costs more L
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
24
EXERCISE
NHS England budget for ‘specialised
services’
£ 17 000 000 000 per annum
How much of this should we spend on
cystic fibrosis?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
25
RULES FOR WISE SPENDING?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
26
SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
27
Technical
HTA
Committee
judgement
HTA = information, not decision
28
Special groups?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
29
SEVERITY
A proposal in Norway:
•Basic threshold c 30k / QALY
•Pay more for severe disease, but only up to x3
the normal limit.
•Severity – Absolute QALY shortfall of 30 QALY
or more
•Rarity – 1 in 100 000 or less
•Benefit – minimum 2 QALY
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
30
Multiple criteria decision analysis
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
31 TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
32 TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
33
MODELLING DISEASE STATES
Advanced topics
34
Disease states
Well
Dialysis Transplant
35
Start
Well
100 people
Not well
0 people
36
6 months
Well
90 people Not well
10 people
37
12 months
Well
81 people Not well
19 people
38
12 months – with treatment
Well
85 people Not well
15 people
39
Renal disease
Well
Dialysis Transplant
Death
40
Menorrhag
ia
Endometria
l Ablation
Complicatio
n
Recurrent
Menorrhagia
Well
Dead
2nd
Endometrial
AblationHysterectomy
to
Hysterectomy
path
Menorrhag
ia
Hysterecto
my
Complicatio
n
Convalescen
ce
Well
Dead
41
How models are used
• Patient move from one state to another
• Model usually assumes change every six months
• Model run for 20 years (or 50 years or…) – the ‘time horizon’
• Patients move from each state to another with a probability – the
‘transition probability’ for that transition
• Treatments change the transition probability – make it less likely
to transition from a healthy state to an ill state
• Patients should give the model a common sense check – are all
states included? Are the results obviously wrong after 20 years?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
42
Discounting
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
43
Discount rates
•3.5% ?
•1.5% ?
•0% (‘undiscounted’)?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
44
Summary – top tips
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
45
Top tips
§ THE COSTS
• Lobby for societal perspective (…you won’t win this one)
§ THE BENEFIT
• Ensure the quality of life measure covers all relevant problems –
EQ5D probably doesn’t
§ THE MODEL
• Check all relevant states included
• Check utility score for each state
§ THE TIME HORIZON
• Ask for an undiscounted analysis
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
46
Change the system?
§ Which spending rule:
» cost / QALY
» budget impact
» multi criterion
§ Special categories?
§ Spend more?
TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)
47 TITRE DE LA PRESENTATION (A MODIFIER SUR LE MASQUE)

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