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An Examination of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories: Analysis and Recommendations

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Kelli Volkomer's Penn State University senior capstone project, a study of the State College Borough's transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions

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An Examination of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories: Analysis and Recommendations

  1. 1. + An Examination of State College Borough’s Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories: Analysis and Recommendations KELLI VOLKOMER BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY POLICY EME 466: ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY IN SOCIETY BRANDI ROBINSON, FACULTY COACH DR. VERA COLE, COURSE INSTRUCTOR FALL 2017
  2. 2. + Greenhouse Gases:  Carbon Dioxide, CO2  Methane, CH4  Nitrous Oxide, N2O  Fluorinated Gases  Hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs  Perfluorocarbons, PFCs  Sulfur hexafluoride, SF6  Nitrogren trifluoride, NF3 Those gases that trap heat in our atmosphere resulting in a net warming of the planet (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2017)
  3. 3. + Emission Coefficients:  The U.S. Energy Information Administration (2017), assigns values to activities that produce emissions  MTCO2e: Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent  VMT: Vehicle Miles Traveled Fuel Type Emission Coefficients CO2 CH4 N2O Gasoline 0.000393965 0.0000018125 0.00000840852 Diesel 0.001438754 0.00000157357 0.00000777665 Natural Gas 0.004264 0.000286 0.000048 (Hillmer-Pegram and Howe 2011, 37; Gallagher 2014, 23) MTCO2e = (VMT * CO2 coefficient) + (VMT * CH4 coefficient) + (VMT * N2O coefficient)
  4. 4. Have emissions for the transportation sector truly increased by 36.2% from 2006 to 2014?
  5. 5. + Previous State College Inventories Inventory Results Percentage of the Borough’s Total Emissions Total Transportation Emissions, MTCO2e Per Capita Transportation Emissions, MTCO2e per person 2006, Morath 37% 119,264 4.42 2006, Hillmer- Pegram & Howe 17% 39,950 1.0 2014, Gallagher 24% 54,502 1.29 Morath 2008, 14 & 24; Hillmer-Pegram and Howe 2011, 12, 27 & 32; Gallagher 2014, 2 & 21-22
  6. 6. 30% 28% 21% 12% 9% Sources of GHG Emissions 2015 Electricity Transportation Industry Commercial & Residential Agriculture (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2017) State College Transportation Emissions 2006 – 17% of all emissions 2014 – 24% of all emissions (Gallagher 2014, 21)
  7. 7. + Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories, GPC Produced by: “establishes credible emissions accounting and reporting practices that help cities develop an emissions baseline, set mitigation goals, create more targeted climate action plans and track progress over time, as well as strengthen opportunities for cities to partner with other levels of government and increase access to local and international climate financing (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 7).”
  8. 8. Five Principles for a “fair and true” report… 1. Relevance 2. Completeness 3. Consistency 4. Transparency 5. Accuracy (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 25-26)
  9. 9. + Relevance  Activities producing emissions will be “appropriately reflected” in the inventory.  Must be considered “when selecting data sources, and determining and prioritizing data collection improvements.” (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 25) Completeness  Include all emissions for the locale  Properly notate when discrepancies exist
  10. 10. + (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 25 - 26) Consistency  Same methods for calculations between inventories  A reporting period of a consecutive 12 months Transparency  Allows verification of findings  Should be done so that any individual attempting to recreate the process would produce the same results
  11. 11. + Accuracy  Ensures all data correctly reflects actual emissions  Provides “assurance of the integrity of the reported information” (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 26 - 30) Also…  Consistent geographic boundary  Reporting period of a consecutive 12 months  Measure of all seven GHGs included under the Kyoto Protocol  Specific sectors, sub-sectors, and sub-categories
  12. 12. + Scopes & City-Induced Frameworks Direct Emissions: “those that are generated from a source controlled by a person or organization (Hillmer-Pegram and Howe 2011, 9)” Scopes Framework: Scope 1– Consumed on-site Scope 2 – Indirect emissions; Electricity Scope 3 – All other indirect emissions City-Induced Framework: Only Scope 1 Emissions are included Allows aggregation without redundancy (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 35)
  13. 13. Transportation Overview (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 73)
  14. 14. Methodology recommendation: Use one of the four common methods 1. Fuel Sale Approach 2. Induced Activity 3. Geographic/Territorial 4. Resident Activity (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 73)
  15. 15. Boundary types and scopes allocation (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 78)
  16. 16. Methodology system boundaries (Fong, Doust, and Deng-Beck 2014, 77)
  17. 17. + Inconsistent Methodology Prevents Accurate Comparison
  18. 18. VMT: Vehicle Miles Traveled MTCO2e: Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Past Inventories & Author’s Analysis MTCO2e = (VMT * CO2 coefficient) + (VMT * CH4 coefficient) + (VMT * N2O coefficient)
  19. 19. + Transit Analysis 2006 2014 Comparison Total VMT 1,246,439 1,648,803 402,364 ↑ State College VMT 316,064 449,812 133,748 ↑ State College Percentage Allocation 25.36% 27.28% 1.92% ↑ Number of Routes 22 27 5 ↑ Farepaying Passengers 806,500 1,380,823 574,323 (71.2%) ↑ Transit offsets private vehicle trips. Therefore, increased emissions from transit is not a bad thing. Centre Area Transportation Authority 2006, 15-16; Centre Area Transportation Authority 2014, 16-17
  20. 20. + Author’s Analysis • Geographic / Territorial Approach • GIS analysis performed with ArcGIS 10.5.1 • Pennsylvania Department of Transportation traffic count data from Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access
  21. 21. + Vehicle Miles Analysis 2006  State College Borough Non- Transit DVMT: 315,341  Multiply by proportion of traffic on state-monitored roads to estimated traffic on local roads in Centre County: 1.26134  Multiply by 365 for annual traffic count: 145,179,480 VMT 2014  State College Borough Non- Transit DVMT: 246,547  Multiply by proportion of traffic on state-monitored roads to estimated traffic on local roads in Centre County: 1.1265  Multiply by 365 for annual traffic count: 101,373,275 VMT
  22. 22. Transportation Category VMT Emission, MTCO2e Cars & Light Trucks (Gasoline) 139,865,911 56,532 Heavy Trucks (Diesel) 5,313,569 7,695 Transit (CNG) 316,064 1,453 Totals: 145,495,544 65,680
  23. 23. Transportation Category VMT Emission, MTCO2e Cars & Light Trucks (Gasoline) 98,352,551 39,753 Heavy Trucks (Diesel) 3,020,924 4,375 Transit (CNG) 449,812 2,068 Totals: 101,823,087 46,196
  24. 24. + Comparison of Inventories Author’s Analysis Non-Transit VM T Transit VM T Total VM T Non-Transit Emissions, M TCO2e Transit Emissions, M TCO2e Total Emissions, M TCO2e 2006 145,179,480 316,064 145,495,544 64,227 1,453 65,680 2014 101,373,275 449,812 101,823,087 44,128 2,068 46,196 Comparison 30.2% ↓ 42.3% ↓ 30.0% ↓ 31.3% ↓ 42.3% ↓ 29.7% ↓ VMT: Vehicle Miles Traveled MTCO2e: Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
  25. 25. + Highway Traffic Analysis Heavy truck traffic decreased in the Borough while increasing on Centre Region highways 2006 2014 Total Non- Transit Heavy Truck Percentage of Total Total Non- Transit Heavy Truck Percentage of Total State College Borough DVMT 315,341 11,542 3.66% 246,547 7,358 2.98% (0.68%↓ ) Centre Region Highway DVMT 390,861 44,157 11.30% 558,757 70,702 12.65% ( 1.35% ↑) Centre Region Non-HWY DVMT 962,519 48,517 5.04% 824,967 29,578 3.59% ( 1.45% ↓ ) Centre Region Total DVMT 1,353,380 92,674 6.85% 1,383,724 100,280 7.25% ( 0.4% ↑) 2006 2014 % change Total CR Traffic (mi.) 1,353,380 1,383,724 2.24% ↑ Total CR Hwy Traffic (mi.) 390,861 558,757 42.96% ↑
  26. 26. + 2006 Commuter Allocation Municipality College Ferguson Halfmoon Harris Patton State College Workers who use car, truck, or van to commute 3516 6211 1145 2014 5262 7169 Ratio of workers in each municipality who use car, truck or van to commute to total workers in the Centre Region who use car, truck, or van to commute 0.14 0.25 0.05 0.08 0.21 0.28 Centre Region Commuter Information. In 2006, total workers in the Centre Region who use car, truck, or van to commute: 25,317 people (United States Census Bureau 2000). Total Centre Region Car & Lt Truck VMT: 311,082,202 miles Multiplied by State College’s Allocation of Commuters (0.28): 87,101,017 miles 2006 VMT Assigned to State College: 86,996,501
  27. 27. + 2014 Commuter Allocation Municipality College Ferguson Halfmoon Harris Patton State College Workers who use car, truck, or van to commute 4248 ( 732↑) 7030 ( 819↑) 1433 ( 288↑) 2205 ( 191↑) 6893 ( 1631↑) 7223 ( 54↑) Ratio of workers in each municipality who use car, truck or van to commute to total workers in the Centre Region who use car, truck, or van to commute 0.15 ( 1%↑) 0.24 ( 1%↓) 0.05 ( - ) 0.08 ( - ) 0.24 ( 3%↑) 0.25 (3%↓) Centre Region Commuter Information. In 2014, total workers in the Centre Region who use car, truck, or van to commute: 29,032 people (United States Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates). Because 93% of workers within the Centre Region also work within the Centre Region, using this information was though to account “for the vast majority of local commutes (Hillmer-Pegram and Howe 2011, 36).”
  28. 28. Where do we go from here?
  29. 29. Recommendations: • Employ each of the GPC’s Five Principles in all future inventories • Utilize one of the “four common methods” recommended by the GPC, with preference on an Induced Activity followed by Geographic approach • Become a signatory of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy
  30. 30. + Compact of Mayors is now… Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy (C40 Blog June 22, 2016)
  31. 31. + ICLEI Membership Full software access including… • Forecasting tools • Planning tools • Monitoring • Peer Community • Technical Assistance ~$600 annual membership Become a Signatory of the Global Covenant of Mayors • Free access for ICLEI’s ClearPath Basic, its community-scale inventory tool • Provides consistency & streamlining • Allows comparison of results • Sends message to community and world that State College is serious about minimizing its impact on the climate. https://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org/
  32. 32. Questions?

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