Tuesday - U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

1. Biennial U.S. Drought Monitor Forum
Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
April 14 – 16, 2015
“Drought Impacts and Disaster Relief in the Agricultural Sector”
Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, Washington, D.C.
N
Neesopah Reservoir,
Kiowa County, CO Prowers County, CO
Nee Noshe Reservoir,
Kiowa County, CO
Aug. 26, 2011
Neeskah Reservoir,
Kiowa County, CO
Rt. 287

2. Contiguous U.S.
60% D0 – D4
37% D1 – D4
Contiguous U.S.
60% coverage of D0-D4
greatest since 10/1/2013
1
23

4. 32
30 30
26
30
25 25 26
22
16
11 10
8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8
6 6 6
15 15
22 22
9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8
6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 34 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr82014
Apr152014
Apr222014
Apr292014
May62014
May132014
May202014
May272014
Jun32014
Jun102014
Jun172014
Jun242014
Jul12014
Jul82014
Jul152014
Jul222014
Jul292014
Aug52014
Aug122014
Aug192014
Aug262014
Sep22014
Sep92014
Sep162014
Sep232014
Sep302014
Oct72014
Oct142014
Oct212014
Oct282014
Nov42014
Nov112014
Nov182014
Nov252014
Dec22014
Dec92014
Dec162014
Dec232014
Dec302014
Jan62015
Jan132015
Jan202015
Jan272015
Feb32015
Feb102015
Feb172015
Feb242015
Mar32015
Mar102015
Mar172015
Mar242015
Mar312015
Apr72015
Percent
Date
Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)
Severe or more intense drought (D2+)
Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)
Exceptional drought (D4)
United States Corn Areas Located in Drought
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

5. 60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
U.S. Corn Yield, Bushels Per Acre
1985-2015*
1988
1993
1995
1994
2004
2009
2012
2010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell
three years in a row since 1928-30.
2010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell
three years in a row since 1928-30.
2014
* The projected 2015 U.S. corn yield of
167.2 bushels/acre is adapted from
“USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024.”
* The projected 2015 U.S. corn yield of
167.2 bushels/acre is adapted from
“USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024.”

7. 25
23 22
19
22
19 19 19
16
11
6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5
3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
5 6
8 9 10 10
6 5 5
13 13
18 18
3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 22 1 1 2 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr82014
Apr152014
Apr222014
Apr292014
May62014
May132014
May202014
May272014
Jun32014
Jun102014
Jun172014
Jun242014
Jul12014
Jul82014
Jul152014
Jul222014
Jul292014
Aug52014
Aug122014
Aug192014
Aug262014
Sep22014
Sep92014
Sep162014
Sep232014
Sep302014
Oct72014
Oct142014
Oct212014
Oct282014
Nov42014
Nov112014
Nov182014
Nov252014
Dec22014
Dec92014
Dec162014
Dec232014
Dec302014
Jan62015
Jan132015
Jan202015
Jan272015
Feb32015
Feb102015
Feb172015
Feb242015
Mar32015
Mar102015
Mar172015
Mar242015
Mar312015
Apr72015
Percent
Date
Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)
Severe or more intense drought (D2+)
Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)
Exceptional drought (D4)
United States Soybean Areas Located in Drought
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

12. 44 44 45 44
48
45 45 45
43
40
38 38
36 37 36 35 35 36
34 34 35
33
30 30 29 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 28 28 29 29 29
26 25 26 26 26 27 28 27 27 27
30 31
36 36
29 30 30 31
34
32 32 32 31
28 28
26 26 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 18 17 17 18 18
16 16 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 18
15 15 16
18
22 21 22 21 21
17 16 15
13 13 13 12 12
10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
5
7 8 9 10 11 11
8
6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr82014
Apr152014
Apr222014
Apr292014
May62014
May132014
May202014
May272014
Jun32014
Jun102014
Jun172014
Jun242014
Jul12014
Jul82014
Jul152014
Jul222014
Jul292014
Aug52014
Aug122014
Aug192014
Aug262014
Sep22014
Sep92014
Sep162014
Sep232014
Sep302014
Oct72014
Oct142014
Oct212014
Oct282014
Nov42014
Nov112014
Nov182014
Nov252014
Dec22014
Dec92014
Dec162014
Dec232014
Dec302014
Jan62015
Jan132015
Jan202015
Jan272015
Feb32015
Feb102015
Feb172015
Feb242015
Mar32015
Mar102015
Mar172015
Mar242015
Mar312015
Apr72015
Percent
Date
Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)
Severe or more intense drought (D2+)
Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)
Exceptional drought (D4)
United States Cattle Areas Located in Drought
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

13. Million Head of Cattle on Jan. 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
TX
OK
Oklahoma lost 23.6% of its pre-drought cattle inventory—1.3 million head—during the
three-year period ending Jan. 1, 2013. Texas lost 16.5% of its pre-drought cattle
inventory—2.2 million head—during the four-year period ending Jan. 1, 2014.
However, Oklahoma and Texas collectively gained 1.0 million head of cattle during the
one-year period ending Jan. 1, 2015—78.5% of the national total.

16. 52 52 51
53 54
52 52 51 51
48 47 47 46 46 46 46 47 48
46 46 46
42
35 35 36 35 35 35 35 35 36 35
37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
35 36 36 37 37 36
34 33 33
35
38
43 43
39
41 42 42 43 43 43 43
41
34 33 32 32 31
28
26 26 25
22 21 22 21
19 19 20
22 22 22 22 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 22
17 18
22 23
31 30 30
28 29
21
18 17
12 12 12 11 11
8 9 8 8 9
7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8
10 10
12 13
4
6 7
10 11 12 13
9
7
5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr82014
Apr152014
Apr222014
Apr292014
May62014
May132014
May202014
May272014
Jun32014
Jun102014
Jun172014
Jun242014
Jul12014
Jul82014
Jul152014
Jul222014
Jul292014
Aug52014
Aug122014
Aug192014
Aug262014
Sep22014
Sep92014
Sep162014
Sep232014
Sep302014
Oct72014
Oct142014
Oct212014
Oct282014
Nov42014
Nov112014
Nov182014
Nov252014
Dec22014
Dec92014
Dec162014
Dec232014
Dec302014
Jan62015
Jan132015
Jan202015
Jan272015
Feb32015
Feb102015
Feb172015
Feb242015
Mar32015
Mar102015
Mar172015
Mar242015
Mar312015
Apr72015
Percent
Date
Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)
Severe or more intense drought (D2+)
Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)
Exceptional drought (D4)
United States Winter Wheat Areas Located in Drought
Agricultural Weather Assessments
World Agricultural Outlook Board

19. State 11/23 2/1 4/5 Change
S. Dakota 68% 58% 29% -39
Nebraska 69 61 34 -35
Kansas 61 46 33 -28
Oklahoma 54 41 43 -11
Montana 70 58 61 - 9
Illinois 56 49 56 0
Colorado 52 38 55 + 3
Texas 49 42 54 + 5
Wheat G/EX Condition Declines
From Nov. 23, 2014 – Apr. 5, 2015

20. Percent of Normal Precipitation
Oct. 1, 2014 - Apr. 12, 2015

21. -60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
Autumn to Spring Change in U.S. Winter Wheat Condition
From the Last Autumn Report to the First Spring Report, 1995-96 to 2014-15
Data Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
Calculations are based on the following rating index:
Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

22. -60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Spring Change in U.S. Winter Wheat Condition
From the First to the Last Spring Report, 1996 to 2015
Data Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
Severe April Freeze
?
Calculations are based on the following rating index:
Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

23. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Percent U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment
1909-2014
1917
1933
1935 20021951
1955
1989
1928 1996 ’061983
Years since the 1950s with
W.W. abandonment > 22%:
1983, 1989, 1991, 1996,
2001, 2002, 2006, and 2013
’13

25. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment
1980-2014
Source: USDA
1986
1992
1998
2006
2011
2013

27. American River in Sacramento, California
November 7, 2014

29. Review: 2014-15 “Wet” Season
All in Drought; 82% in D3 to D4 98% in Drought; 67% in D3 to D4

32. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1-Dec
8-Dec
15-Dec
22-Dec
29-Dec
5-Jan
12-Jan
19-Jan
26-Jan
2-Feb
9-Feb
16-Feb
23-Feb
2-Mar
9-Mar
16-Mar
23-Mar
30-Mar
Source: California Department of Water Resources
Daily Sierra Nevada Snowpack (Inches) vs. Normal
Normal
2012-13
2011-12
2013-14
2014-15

33. Graphic courtesy
Alexander Tardy,
NWS San Diego
Sierra Nevada Snowpack on April
1

34. California Precipitation
All 36-Month Periods Ending in September
45.88” (-21.44”)

35. California Precipitation
October – March 1895-96 to 2014-15
13.50” (-5.21”);
25th
driest
In 120 yrs.
Until 2011-12 to 2014-15, California has never had four
consecutive October-March periods ranked in the driest
one-fourth of the historical distribution.

36. California Average Temperature
All 36-Month Periods Ending in September
59.8°F (+2.4°F)

37. California Average Temperature
October – March 1895-96 to 2014-15
53.9°F (+5.8°F)

38. 5
10
15
20
25
30
35 1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
California Reservoir Storage, Million Acre-Feet, 1977 and 2010-14
Source: California Department of Water Resources
Note: One acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water it takes to cover one acre to a depth of one foot.
2011
2010
Avg.
2013
2014
1977
2012
2015

39. 20
40
60
80
100
120
140 1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
California Reservoir Storage, Percent of Normal, 1977 and 2010-14
Source: California Department of Water Resources
2011
2010
2012
2013
1977
2014
2015

40. California Reservoirs, Recharge and Withdrawal
Million Acre-Feet and Percent of Average
Recharge Withdrawal
2010-11 12.47 (151%) 2011 8.78 (107%)
2011-12 5.79 (70%) 2012 11.54 (140%)
2012-13 6.52 (79%) 2013 11.49 (139%)
2013-14 4.17 (51%) 2014 7.75 (94%)
2014-15 6.46* (78%) 2015 N/A
Avg. 8.24 Avg. 8.24
Note: The 2014-15 recharge value has been updated through
Mar. 31. Recharge and withdrawal values are based on end-of-
month statistics, not daily readings.

43. California Agricultural
Production Statistics, 2013
• The state’s 77,900 farms and ranches received a
record $46.4 billion for their output in 2013, up from
$44.7 billion in 2012 and $43.3 billion in 2011.
• In 2012, California was the number one state in cash
farm receipts with 11.3 percent of the U.S. total.
• That year, the state accounted for 15 percent of
domestic receipts for crops and 7.1 percent of the
U.S. revenue for livestock and livestock products.
Source: California Department of Agriculture:
http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/

44. California Agricultural
Production Statistics, 2013
• Milk: $7.6 billion
• Almonds: $5.8 billion
• Grapes: $5.6 billion
• Cattle, Calves:
$3.1 billion
• Strawberries:
$2.2 billion
Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture
• Walnuts: $1.8 billion
• Lettuce: $1.7 billion
• Hay: $1.6 billion
• Tomatoes:
$1.2 billion
• Nursery Plants:
$1.2 billion
Note: These ten commodities accounted for approximately two-thirds
of California’s agricultural cash receipts in 2013.

45. California Production, Selected Crops
Crop 2013 2014 Reduction
Corn 35.1* 17.6 50%
Rice 47.6* 36.4 24%
Cotton 943* 730 23%
Hay 1.836 * 1.496 19%
* Respective production units, by crop, are: corn, million bushels; cotton,
thousand 480-pound bales; rice, million hundredweight (cwt); and hay (not
including alfalfa), million tons.
Source: U.S. Crop Production Highlights, October 10, 2014:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-10-10-2014.pdf

46. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
30-Apr
7-May
14-May
21-May
28-May
4-Jun
11-Jun
18-Jun
25-Jun
2-Jul
9-Jul
16-Jul
23-Jul
30-Jul
6-Aug
13-Aug
20-Aug
27-Aug
3-Sep
10-Sep
17-Sep
24-Sep
1-Oct
8-Oct
15-Oct
22-Oct
29-Oct
5-Nov
Index
Date
CA PASTURE AND RANGE Condition Index
1998
2008
2011
2012
2013
2014
Based on NASS crop progress data. Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0
2012
2011
2008
2014
Late-summer and autumn rangeland and pasture
conditions were better in 2014, as compared to
2012 and 2013, due to beneficial spring rainfall.
2013
1998

47. Commodity 2013 2014 2015
Cotton 280,000 212,000 155,000
Corn 600,000 520,000 430,000
Oats 150,000 110,000 120,000
Barley 95,000 80,000 70,000
Wheat 690,000 495,000 490,000
Rice 567,000 434,000 408,000
Sunflowers 58,500 47,000 44,000
Total 2,440,500 1,898,000 1,717,000
California, Planted Acreage for 2013-14 and Planting Intentions for 2015
- USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, issued on March 31, 2015, provided
the first official look at California’s 2015 planting intentions.
- Intended cotton acreage is down 45% from 2013.
- Other crops surveyed are down from 20 to 30% from 2013.
- Total 2015 acreage for the crops listed is down 30% from two years ago and
down almost 10% from 2014.

49. • Streamlines the USDA Secretarial designation process by
eliminating steps from the current process;
• A reduced interest rate for emergency loans that effectively lowers
the current rate from 3.75 percent to 2.25 percent;
• Preserves the ability of a state governor or Indian Tribal Council to
request a Secretarial Disaster Designation;
• Removes the requirement that a request for a disaster designation
be initiated only by a state governor or Indian Tribal Council;
• Further streamlines the disaster designation process for severe
drought occurrences by utilizing the U.S. Drought Monitor as a tool
to automatically trigger disaster areas with no further
documentation;
• Does not impose any new requirements on producers or the public.
• In 2012, led to drought disaster declarations in 2,254 primary
counties in 39 states.
“Fast Track” Secretarial
Disaster Designation Process

54. • U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA
• Agricultural Act of 2014 (“Farm Bill”) re-authorizes the Livestock
Forage Disaster Program (LFP)
– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing
land or pastureland that is physically located in a county
experiencing:
• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal
grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal
to 1 monthly payment
• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be
eligible to receive an amount equal to 3 monthly payments
• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time
during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an
amount equal to 4 monthly payments
• D4 intensity for at least 4 weeks during the normal grazing
period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 5
monthly payments

55. Retroactive LFP Payouts
The 2014 Farm Bill contains permanent livestock disaster
programs including the Livestock Forage Disaster Program,
which will help producers in California and other areas recover
from the drought. At President Obama’s direction, USDA made
implementation of the disaster programs a top priority.
Producers were able to sign up for the livestock disaster
programs for losses not only for 2014 but for losses they
experienced in 2012 and 2013. While these livestock programs
took over a year to get assistance out the door under the last
Farm Bill, USDA committed to cut that time by more than 80
percent in 2014 and began sign-up in April.

56. • 2008 “Farm Bill” Livestock Forage Disaster Program
(LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who
suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire on or
after January 1, 2008, and before October 1, 2011,
during the calendar year in which the loss occurs):
– 2008 calendar year: $165,540,837
– 2009 calendar year: $ 98,739,950
– 2010 calendar year: $ 33,334,458
– 2011 calendar year: $180,950,088
– LFP total, 2008-11: $478,565,333

57. • 2014 “Farm Bill” Livestock Forage Disaster Program
(LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who
suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire from
October 1, 2011, to the present, during the calendar
year in which the loss occurs):
– 2011 calendar year: $ 179,267,632
– 2012 calendar year: $2,330,914,983
– 2013 calendar year: $1,396,870,077
– 2014 calendar year: $ 742,329,470
– LFP total, 2011-14: $4,649,382,162

58. Agricultural Field at Sunrise
Sacramento, California
November 7, 2014
Thank you!
• Contact info
- e-mail: brippey@oce.usda.gov
- phone: (202) 720-2397

59. • U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA
• Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (“Farm Bill”)
authorizes the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)
– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing
land or pastureland that is physically located in a county
experiencing:
• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal
grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal
to 1 monthly payment
• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be
eligible to receive an amount equal to 2 monthly payments
• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time
during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an
amount equal to 3 monthly payments

60. U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters, 1980-2014
1. Hurricane Katrina 2005 $151B
2. Superstorm Sandy 2012 $ 67
3. Hurricane Andrew 1992 $ 45
4. Drought 1988 $ 40
5. Flooding 1993 $ 34
6. Hurricane Ike 2008 $ 33
7. Drought 2012 $ 31
8. Drought 1980 $ 29
9. Hurricane Ivan 2004 $ 26
10. Hurricane Wilma 2005 $ 23
Source: National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/)

61. U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters, 1980-2014
11. Hurricane Rita 2005 $22B
12. Hurricane Charley 2004 $21
13. Hurricane Hugo 1989 $17
14. Hurricane Irene 2011 $14
15. S. Plains Drought 2011 $13
16. Hurricane Frances 2004 $12
17. T.S. Allison 2001 $11
18. Drought 2002 $11
19. Flooding 2008 $11
20. Tornadoes, Etc. 2011 $11
21. Drought 2013 $11